SPY stalls near January high
After a gap and surge above 114 on Friday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) stalled with a small doji on Monday. This is hardly surprising given potential resistance near the January high and short-term overbought conditions. SPY is up over 7% since mid February and up over 3.5% the last nine days. Doji, as we know, signal indecision that can sometimes foreshadow a short-term reversal. "Sometimes" is the key word here. Last week's doji did signal indecision, but a short-term reversal was never confirmed with further weakness. Indecision reflects a standoff between bulls and bears. If the prior move was up, the bulls still have the edge after an indecisive candlestick. A decline below 113 would forge a short-term candlestick reversal similar to an evening star. It has yet to happen so the trend remains up until evidence of a reversal materializes. The blue dotted lines capture the last three swings. The current swing is up as long as support at 111 holds. Charts of interest are show after the "continued reading" jump.
There is not much to add from the 60-minute chart. Broken resistance and last week's consolidation lows mark a support zone around 111-112. This is confirmed by the trendline extending up from the February low. RSI moved from overbought levels, but remains above the green trendline and above 50.
Potential market moving reports this week:
Wed: Mar 10 - 10:30 - Crude Inventories
Thu: Mar 11 - 08:30 - Initial Claims
Fri: Mar 12 - 08:30 - Retail Sales
Fri: Mar 12 - 09:55 - Michigan Sentiment
Charts of Interest: CI, FTR, S, T, TSM, TXN, UNH
