David Keller

David Keller


David is President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, where he helps active investors make better decisions using behavioral finance and technical analysis. He is a former President of the CMT Association. Learn More 

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Man seizing an arrow with rope: do not chase breakouts

Don't Chase Breakouts! Wait for Confirmation

A stock isn't in a new uptrend until resistance is broken and the breakout is confirmed. Dave Keller, CMT, reviews DASH, XAR, and QTUM to show how price and momentum can validate the next accumulation phase....   READ MORE 

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Fibonacci Golden Ratio: Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Fibonacci Retracement: Finding the Levels That Matter Most

Fibonacci retracements help investors identify high-probability support, resistance, and price targets. Dave Keller, CMT, uses NVIDIA and Adobe to demonstrate how selecting the right swing highs and lows creates a disciplined framework for anticipating market turning points....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Stock Charts for July 2026: What's Working Now?

Top 10 Stock Charts for July 2026: What's Working Now?

Is this the start of the next advance, or another false breakout? Dave Keller explains the signals he’s watching before revealing his Top 10 Stock Charts for July 2026....   READ MORE 

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Person's finger on screen analyzing charts: S&P 500 coil pattern

The S&P 500's Coil Pattern Could Decide the Next Big Move

The S&P 500 isn't forming a classic head-and-shoulders top. Dave Keller, CMT, explains why a symmetrical triangle better describes the current consolidation, highlights the key breakout and breakdown levels, and shows how trend models can help confirm the market's next move....   READ MORE 

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Scissor cutting percentage sign: Interest rate decline

Three Areas of the Market That Could Thrive as Rates Decline

With Treasury yields breaking lower, some market groups could gain a meaningful tailwind. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights why small caps, homebuilders, and real estate may benefit from falling rates, along with the technical signals supporting these emerging opportunities....   READ MORE 

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Forget the Head-and-Shoulders Pattern, Watch This Instead

Forget the Head-and-Shoulders Pattern, Watch This Instead

Is the S&P 500 really forming a head-and-shoulders top? Dave Keller explains why the answer may surprise you—and why three other charts could provide much more valuable clues about where the market will go next....   READ MORE 

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Are Bearish Momentum Divergences Warning of a Market Top?

Are Bearish Momentum Divergences Warning of a Market Top?

Bearish RSI divergences are appearing across market leaders from semiconductors to financials. Dave Keller, CMT, explains how weakening momentum can signal a change of character, what confirms a true trend reversal, and why RSI remains a critical tool for monitoring market leadership....   READ MORE 

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Chart showing price oscillating between high and low: overbought and oversold RSI

Stop Thinking of RSI as "Overbought" and "Oversold"

Most investors use RSI to identify overbought and oversold conditions, but Dave Keller explains how its real value lies in revealing trend strength, illustrating how RSI ranges can distinguish between phases, confirm trends, and help you recognize meaningful market shifts....   READ MORE 

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This RSI Signal Could Warn of a Trend Change

This RSI Signal Could Warn of a Trend Change

Most investors use RSI to spot overbought and oversold conditions, but Dave Keller explains why one specific RSI signal may be far more important—and how it can reveal whether a pullback is simply noise or the start of something bigger....   READ MORE 

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Three breadth signals to confirm stock market trends

Three Breadth Signals That Help Confirm Market Trends

Market breadth often reveals what headline indexes miss. Dave Keller, CMT, explains the three breadth indicators at the core of his process - cumulative advance-decline lines, McClellan Oscillator, and percentage of stocks above key moving averages - and how they help confirm market trends....   READ MORE 

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The Best Opportunities May Not Be in Tech Anymore

The Best Opportunities May Not Be in Tech Anymore

Technology continues to dominate the headlines, but some of the strongest rotations may be happening where few investors are looking. Dave Keller explores the sectors quietly improving beneath the surface and the signals that could reveal where leadership goes next....   READ MORE 

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Beyond Big Tech: Three Strong Charts in Unexpected Sectors

Beyond Big Tech: Three Strong Charts in Unexpected Sectors

As AI enthusiasm drives technology higher, strong opportunities are emerging elsewhere. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights Elevance Health, Goldman Sachs, and Monster Beverage—three stocks showing bullish trends, positive momentum, and strong relative performance versus the S&P 500....   READ MORE 

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Diamond bursting from cracked grey stone among several uniform pebbles: uncover gems

Using SCTR and Breakout Scans to Uncover Hidden Gems

Most momentum investors focus on stocks with high SCTR rankings, but emerging leaders often appear earlier. Dave Keller, CMT, shares a simple scan combining new three-month highs with lower SCTR scores to identify stocks just beginning a potential accumulation phase....   READ MORE 

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June 2026: The 10 Most Important Charts to Watch

June 2026: The 10 Most Important Charts to Watch

Dave Keller reviews his 10 most important charts for June 2026, highlighting key breakout, breakdown, and trend continuation setups across various sectors. Learn the levels, momentum signals, and moving averages that could shape the market’s next move....   READ MORE 

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Male hand obstructing four dominoes: Four scenarios for the Nasdaq

Four Scenarios for the Nasdaq 100 After This Week’s Pullback

After a sharp June pullback, investors are reassessing the outlook for growth stocks. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines four possible paths for the Nasdaq 100 through late July, exploring how sector rotation, interest rates, and market leadership could shape the next move....   READ MORE 

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Hand holding red flag with three check marks

The Hindenburg Omen Is Sounding Again. Should Investors Be Concerned?

A second Hindenburg Omen confirmation has emerged as market breadth weakens beneath new highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Dave Keller, CMT, explains why the signal should be viewed as an early warning sign, not a prediction, and how investors can prepare for rising risk....   READ MORE 

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These Fibonacci Levels Could Define Your Next Trade

These Fibonacci Levels Could Define Your Next Trade

Dave Keller explains how Fibonacci retracements can help identify support, resistance, price targets, and risk management levels. Using examples from MSFT, LULU, and AT&T, he shows when Fibonacci analysis is most effective and how traders use these key levels to plan their next move....   READ MORE 

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Caution warning signals: are they emerging beneath bull market

Are Warning Signs Emerging Beneath the Surface of This Bull Market?

The S&P 500 remains in a strong uptrend, but two notable breadth indicators are flashing caution signals. Dave Keller, CMT, examines the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome to assess whether weakening participation beneath the surface could signal a late-stage bull market environment....   READ MORE 

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Warning Signs for Stocks: The Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome Explained

Warning Signs for Stocks: The Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome Explained

Dave Keller breaks down the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome, two breadth indicators designed to identify conditions often seen near major market tops, and explains why recent signals deserve attention....   READ MORE 

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Ichimoku Cloud Charts Explained: Trend Signals Most Traders Miss

Ichimoku Cloud Charts Explained: Trend Signals Most Traders Miss

Dave Keller explains how Ichimoku Cloud charts help traders identify bullish and bearish trend shifts using real examples from Ford, CrowdStrike, and the S&P 500. Learn how the cloud can act as dynamic support and resistance during major market moves....   READ MORE 

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Stock chart with sell and buy buttons

How Stop Loss Rules Should Change in Different Market Phases

Risk management should adapt to the chart’s trend phase. Dave Keller, CMT, compares Alphabet’s strong uptrend with Palantir’s sideways consolidation to explain how moving averages, support levels, and RSI can guide smarter stop loss and sell decisions....   READ MORE 

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Broadcom Breakout or Blowoff Top? Reading the Momentum Divergence

Broadcom Breakout or Blowoff Top? Reading the Momentum Divergence

Broadcom has broken to new all-time highs, but weakening momentum may signal a potential blowoff top. Dave Keller, CMT, explains how bearish momentum divergences can foreshadow major reversals, and what price and RSI signals could confirm AVGO’s next move....   READ MORE 

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Price Gap Analysis 101: Bullish vs. Bearish Gap Signals

Price Gap Analysis 101: Bullish vs. Bearish Gap Signals

Join David Keller as he explains how traders analyze price gaps....   READ MORE 

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Bull advancing forward

The Great Tech Bull Market of 2026: How Dominant Is Technology?

Technology stocks are once again dominating market performance, led by semiconductors and improving software charts. Dave Keller, CMT, uses breadth indicators, relative strength ratios, and sector ETFs to assess the sustainability of the 2026 tech rally and the warning signs to watch....   READ MORE 

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Arrows pointing upward above bar chart that is increasing

Three Tech Stocks Showing Early Signs of a New Uptrend

As the S&P 500 and technology sector push higher, select stocks are showing early signs of new uptrends. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights TTWO, RNG, and CRWD, three charts with improving momentum and key breakout levels that could confirm further upside in May....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts for May 2026 - New Highs and Strong Trends

Top 10 Charts for May 2026 - New Highs and Strong Trends

Dave highlights 10 charts showing new highs and strong trends heading into May 2026, including leaders like CRWD, WDC, and JBL, along with early breakouts and sector strength to watch....   READ MORE 

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Person focusing on document with magnifying glass

Gap Patterns in Focus: What GOOGL, AAPL, and the S&P 500 Are Telling Us

The S&P 500 and key stocks gapped to new highs, but follow-through will determine the trend. Dave Keller, CMT, explains “gap and run” versus “gap and fail” patterns, using recent moves in Oracle, Alphabet, and Apple to assess whether bullish momentum can continue....   READ MORE 

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Silhouette of person flexing muscles facing shadow of bigger person

Strong Momentum, Strong Trend: Reading RSI at New Highs

The S&P 500 is pushing to new highs with RSI near 70, signaling strong momentum. Dave Keller, CMT, explains why overbought conditions can confirm an uptrend, how divergences warn of weakness, and what signals would indicate the current bullish phase is ending....   READ MORE 

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What RSI Is Telling Us Now About the S&P 500 Rally

What RSI Is Telling Us Now About the S&P 500 Rally

Follow along as David Keller breaks down one of his favorite technical indicators, the RSI. Dave explains what overbought and oversold really mean and how to best understand what RSI readings mean....   READ MORE 

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Choose Your Own Adventure: Mapping the S&P 500’s Next Move

Choose Your Own Adventure: Mapping the S&P 500’s Next Move

After surging above 7000, the S&P 500 has stalled, leaving investors to question the next move. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines four bullish and bearish scenarios through mid-June, helping investors weigh risks, opportunities, and key market signals ahead....   READ MORE 

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Person analyzing chart on screen: breakout, breakdown, bounce

Earnings Season Chart Watch: Breakout, Breakdown, or Bounce?

With 20% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings this week, chart reactions may reveal more than headline results. Dave Keller, CMT reviews CSX, HCA, and RTX to show how breakouts, support tests, and breakdowns can signal changing expectations for future growth....   READ MORE 

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Can Earnings Keep the S&P 500 Above 7000? 5 Stocks to Watch

Can Earnings Keep the S&P 500 Above 7000? 5 Stocks to Watch

Dave Keller, CMT breaks down five key earnings stocks—TSLA, UNH, CSX, RTX, and HCA—and why this earnings season could decide if the S&P 500 holds above 7000. He highlights key support, resistance, and momentum signals to watch as results come in....   READ MORE 

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Hourglass showing time passing

SPX 7000: Evaluating the Past, Present, and Future

The S&P 500’s move above 7000 signals renewed strength after the March low. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights bullish trend model signals, key Fibonacci levels, and improving breadth data that could confirm whether this breakout can continue into Q2....   READ MORE 

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Can This Market Rally Actually Hold? 5 Charts to Watch

Can This Market Rally Actually Hold? 5 Charts to Watch

The market rally has been surprisingly strong—but can it hold? Dave Keller reviews five key charts to determine whether this move has staying power or is at risk of failing....   READ MORE 

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Candlestick chart patterns

Bullish Breakouts, Bearish Candles: What to Watch Next

Several stocks broke out this week, but bearish candle patterns suggest short-term exhaustion. Dave Keller, CMT, reviews VRSN, TGT, and TJX, showing how reversal signals- combined with overbought conditions- could lead to tactical pullbacks within broader uptrends....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts to Watch: April 2026 Breakouts & Key Levels

Top 10 Charts to Watch: April 2026 Breakouts & Key Levels

Dave Keller breaks down the top 10 charts to watch for April 2026, focusing on breakout setups, key support tests, and emerging trends. These charts highlight what matters as the market navigates a potential counter-trend rally....   READ MORE 

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Lady in coffee shop looking at charts on laptop wondering if the rally is real

Is This Rally Real? What Needs to Improve for a Bullish Case

After a sharp countertrend rally, key signals remain mixed. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines three conditions for a bullish turn—rotation into offensive sectors, improving breadth, and breakouts in growth stocks—to determine if the S&P 500 can sustain a recovery in April....   READ MORE 

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Stock market falling below support level

Below the 200-Day: What’s Next for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 has broken below key support and its 200-day moving average, signaling a confirmed bearish phase. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines a downside target near 6200 and explains how short-term rallies could emerge before the broader downtrend continues....   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 Breakdown: Next Downside Targets to Watch

S&P 500 Breakdown: Next Downside Targets to Watch

The S&P 500 has broken key support, confirming a shift into a downtrend. Dave Keller outlines the next downside targets and the indicators to watch for a potential bounce or continued weakness....   READ MORE 

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Are Sentiment Indicators Bearish Enough to Be Bullish?

Are Sentiment Indicators Bearish Enough to Be Bullish?

Sentiment has turned more bearish, but is it bearish enough to signal a market low? Join Dave Keller as he reviews the VIX, AAII survey, NAAIM exposure, and put/call ratios to show why conditions may not be extreme just yet....   READ MORE