David Keller

David Keller


David is President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, where he helps active investors make better decisions using behavioral finance and technical analysis. He is a former President of the CMT Association. Learn More 

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Caution warning signals: are they emerging beneath bull market

Are Warning Signs Emerging Beneath the Surface of This Bull Market?

The S&P 500 remains in a strong uptrend, but two notable breadth indicators are flashing caution signals. Dave Keller, CMT, examines the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome to assess whether weakening participation beneath the surface could signal a late-stage bull market environment....   READ MORE 

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Warning Signs for Stocks: The Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome Explained

Warning Signs for Stocks: The Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome Explained

Dave Keller breaks down the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome, two breadth indicators designed to identify conditions often seen near major market tops, and explains why recent signals deserve attention....   READ MORE 

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Ichimoku Cloud Charts Explained: Trend Signals Most Traders Miss

Ichimoku Cloud Charts Explained: Trend Signals Most Traders Miss

Dave Keller explains how Ichimoku Cloud charts help traders identify bullish and bearish trend shifts using real examples from Ford, CrowdStrike, and the S&P 500. Learn how the cloud can act as dynamic support and resistance during major market moves....   READ MORE 

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Stock chart with sell and buy buttons

How Stop Loss Rules Should Change in Different Market Phases

Risk management should adapt to the chart’s trend phase. Dave Keller, CMT, compares Alphabet’s strong uptrend with Palantir’s sideways consolidation to explain how moving averages, support levels, and RSI can guide smarter stop loss and sell decisions....   READ MORE 

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Broadcom Breakout or Blowoff Top? Reading the Momentum Divergence

Broadcom Breakout or Blowoff Top? Reading the Momentum Divergence

Broadcom has broken to new all-time highs, but weakening momentum may signal a potential blowoff top. Dave Keller, CMT, explains how bearish momentum divergences can foreshadow major reversals, and what price and RSI signals could confirm AVGO’s next move....   READ MORE 

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Price Gap Analysis 101: Bullish vs. Bearish Gap Signals

Price Gap Analysis 101: Bullish vs. Bearish Gap Signals

Join David Keller as he explains how traders analyze price gaps....   READ MORE 

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Bull advancing forward

The Great Tech Bull Market of 2026: How Dominant Is Technology?

Technology stocks are once again dominating market performance, led by semiconductors and improving software charts. Dave Keller, CMT, uses breadth indicators, relative strength ratios, and sector ETFs to assess the sustainability of the 2026 tech rally and the warning signs to watch....   READ MORE 

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Three Tech Stocks Showing Early Signs of a New Uptrend

As the S&P 500 and technology sector push higher, select stocks are showing early signs of new uptrends. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights TTWO, RNG, and CRWD, three charts with improving momentum and key breakout levels that could confirm further upside in May....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts for May 2026 - New Highs and Strong Trends

Top 10 Charts for May 2026 - New Highs and Strong Trends

Dave highlights 10 charts showing new highs and strong trends heading into May 2026, including leaders like CRWD, WDC, and JBL, along with early breakouts and sector strength to watch....   READ MORE 

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Gap Patterns in Focus: What GOOGL, AAPL, and the S&P 500 Are Telling Us

The S&P 500 and key stocks gapped to new highs, but follow-through will determine the trend. Dave Keller, CMT, explains “gap and run” versus “gap and fail” patterns, using recent moves in Oracle, Alphabet, and Apple to assess whether bullish momentum can continue....   READ MORE 

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Strong Momentum, Strong Trend: Reading RSI at New Highs

The S&P 500 is pushing to new highs with RSI near 70, signaling strong momentum. Dave Keller, CMT, explains why overbought conditions can confirm an uptrend, how divergences warn of weakness, and what signals would indicate the current bullish phase is ending....   READ MORE 

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What RSI Is Telling Us Now About the S&P 500 Rally

What RSI Is Telling Us Now About the S&P 500 Rally

Follow along as David Keller breaks down one of his favorite technical indicators, the RSI. Dave explains what overbought and oversold really mean and how to best understand what RSI readings mean....   READ MORE 

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Choose Your Own Adventure: Mapping the S&P 500’s Next Move

Choose Your Own Adventure: Mapping the S&P 500’s Next Move

After surging above 7000, the S&P 500 has stalled, leaving investors to question the next move. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines four bullish and bearish scenarios through mid-June, helping investors weigh risks, opportunities, and key market signals ahead....   READ MORE 

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Person analyzing chart on screen: breakout, breakdown, bounce

Earnings Season Chart Watch: Breakout, Breakdown, or Bounce?

With 20% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings this week, chart reactions may reveal more than headline results. Dave Keller, CMT reviews CSX, HCA, and RTX to show how breakouts, support tests, and breakdowns can signal changing expectations for future growth....   READ MORE 

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Can Earnings Keep the S&P 500 Above 7000? 5 Stocks to Watch

Can Earnings Keep the S&P 500 Above 7000? 5 Stocks to Watch

Dave Keller, CMT breaks down five key earnings stocks—TSLA, UNH, CSX, RTX, and HCA—and why this earnings season could decide if the S&P 500 holds above 7000. He highlights key support, resistance, and momentum signals to watch as results come in....   READ MORE 

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SPX 7000: Evaluating the Past, Present, and Future

The S&P 500’s move above 7000 signals renewed strength after the March low. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights bullish trend model signals, key Fibonacci levels, and improving breadth data that could confirm whether this breakout can continue into Q2....   READ MORE 

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Can This Market Rally Actually Hold? 5 Charts to Watch

Can This Market Rally Actually Hold? 5 Charts to Watch

The market rally has been surprisingly strong—but can it hold? Dave Keller reviews five key charts to determine whether this move has staying power or is at risk of failing....   READ MORE 

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Candlestick chart patterns

Bullish Breakouts, Bearish Candles: What to Watch Next

Several stocks broke out this week, but bearish candle patterns suggest short-term exhaustion. Dave Keller, CMT, reviews VRSN, TGT, and TJX, showing how reversal signals- combined with overbought conditions- could lead to tactical pullbacks within broader uptrends....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts to Watch: April 2026 Breakouts & Key Levels

Top 10 Charts to Watch: April 2026 Breakouts & Key Levels

Dave Keller breaks down the top 10 charts to watch for April 2026, focusing on breakout setups, key support tests, and emerging trends. These charts highlight what matters as the market navigates a potential counter-trend rally....   READ MORE 

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Lady in coffee shop looking at charts on laptop wondering if the rally is real

Is This Rally Real? What Needs to Improve for a Bullish Case

After a sharp countertrend rally, key signals remain mixed. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines three conditions for a bullish turn—rotation into offensive sectors, improving breadth, and breakouts in growth stocks—to determine if the S&P 500 can sustain a recovery in April....   READ MORE 

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Stock market falling below support level

Below the 200-Day: What’s Next for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 has broken below key support and its 200-day moving average, signaling a confirmed bearish phase. Dave Keller, CMT, outlines a downside target near 6200 and explains how short-term rallies could emerge before the broader downtrend continues....   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 Breakdown: Next Downside Targets to Watch

S&P 500 Breakdown: Next Downside Targets to Watch

The S&P 500 has broken key support, confirming a shift into a downtrend. Dave Keller outlines the next downside targets and the indicators to watch for a potential bounce or continued weakness....   READ MORE 

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Are Sentiment Indicators Bearish Enough to Be Bullish?

Are Sentiment Indicators Bearish Enough to Be Bullish?

Sentiment has turned more bearish, but is it bearish enough to signal a market low? Join Dave Keller as he reviews the VIX, AAII survey, NAAIM exposure, and put/call ratios to show why conditions may not be extreme just yet....   READ MORE 

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falling dominoes

Cracks in Mega-Cap Leadership: What MSFT, AMZN, and TSLA Are Telling Us

Mega cap leaders are beginning to weaken beneath the surface of a rangebound market. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights bearish patterns in Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla, raising concerns that deteriorating leadership could lead to further downside for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq....   READ MORE 

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These Charts Could Decide the Next Market Move

These Charts Could Decide the Next Market Move

Why hasn’t the market broken down, even amid weakening breadth? Dave Keller shows how a small group of mega-cap stocks may be holding the indexes together, and the key levels that could decide the next market move....   READ MORE 

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Market Breadth Breakdown: Why the Market Has “Bad Breadth” in March 2026

Market Breadth Breakdown: Why the Market Has “Bad Breadth” in March 2026

The S&P 500 may look stable, but market breadth is quietly deteriorating. Dave Keller breaks down key breadth indicators and explains why weakening participation could signal trouble ahead....   READ MORE 

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Bull holding up arrow pointing up: strong stocks

Market Breadth Breaks Down, but These Stocks Still Look Strong

Even as market breadth deteriorates and the S&P 500 slips below key support, strong setups still exist. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights Marathon Petroleum, Target, and Palantir — three charts showing breakouts, trend strength, and improving momentum into March....   READ MORE 

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Dave Keller: Top 10 Stocks for March

Top 10 Charts to Watch | March 2026 Breakouts & Inflection Points

With corporate earnings now behind us, investors can shift their focus to the trends taking shape in Q1. In this video, David Keller, CMT, shares the top 10 charts he's watching for March 2026, and more importantly, why they matter right now. Dave organizes his charts into three...   READ MORE 

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NVDA Earnings Preview: 5 Charts That Could Define the Next Major Move

NVDA Earnings Preview: 5 Charts That Could Define the Next Major Move

With NVIDIA earnings having the potential to trigger a major move, Dave Keller takes a close look at it’s chart across multiple timeframes. From long-term PPO signals to key support and resistance, he explains the critical features that could confirm a breakout or breakdown....   READ MORE 

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Stock chart that is rangebound

Rangebound Market: How to Trade the S&P 500’s Next Move

The S&P 500 remains locked in a multi-month consolidation as leadership rotates from growth into value. Dave Keller, CMT, updates key support and resistance levels and explains how momentum signals, especially RSI, could confirm the S&P 500's next breakout or breakdown....   READ MORE 

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RSI Divergences Can Signal Major Tops — But Only If Confirmed!

RSI Divergences Can Signal Major Tops — But Only If Confirmed!

RSI divergences can warn of potential major tops, but only if confirmed by breakdown signals. David Keller walks through DG, GOOGL, AT&T, and the S&P 500 to show what must happen before a divergence becomes actionable....   READ MORE 

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Bottom Fishing or Breakdown? How to Spot a True Trend Reversal

Bottom Fishing or Breakdown? How to Spot a True Trend Reversal

When high-flying stocks tumble, is it a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper decline? Dave Keller, CMT, uses Alaska Air as a case study to show how momentum divergences and moving averages can confirm a true bottom—then applies the framework to PLTR and COIN....   READ MORE 

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Defensive Sectors Surge as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Warning

Defensive Sectors Surge as Hindenburg Omen Flashes Warning

A confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal and renewed rotation into defensive sectors are raising caution flags for US equities. While the S&P 500 remains in a neutral range, Dave Keller, CMT, highlights key support levels and breadth signals investors should monitor closely....   READ MORE 

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PLTR, BTC, and COIN: How to Spot Bottoming Clues (and Avoid Falling Knives)

PLTR, BTC, and COIN: How to Spot Bottoming Clues (and Avoid Falling Knives)

Dave contrasts trend-following momentum strategies with value-oriented approaches focused on buying weakness, and explains how technical analysis uses leading and lagging signals....   READ MORE 

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Four railroad tracks crossing

Avoiding Confirmation Bias: Four Paths for the S&P 500 Into March

As volatility picks up, the S&P 500 sits in a crucial neutral zone. Dave Keller, CMT, uses probabilistic analysis to outline four possible paths for the index into late March—from a renewed bull run to a deeper correction—helping investors prepare for multiple outcomes....   READ MORE 

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AMD Earnings Fallout: What a Break Below $200 Would Really Mean

After a sharp post-earnings drop, AMD remains locked in a multi-month consolidation between $200 and $265. Dave Keller, CMT, breaks down how accumulation, distribution, and consolidation phases form, along with what price levels would confirm a decisive bearish shift....   READ MORE 

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AMD Case Study: Trend Phases, Earnings Risk, and the “Nothing Burger” Range

AMD Case Study: Trend Phases, Earnings Risk, and the “Nothing Burger” Range

Not sure if a stock is breaking out or topping out? Dave Keller, CMT, uses AMD to explain trend phases and how StockCharts tools help investors manage risk and avoid emotional decisions....   READ MORE 

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Beyond the Bull Market: Three Charts Still Showing Technical Strength

Beyond the Bull Market: Three Charts Still Showing Technical Strength

As former market leaders stumble, opportunity still exists for disciplined chart watchers. Dave Keller, CMT, highlights three constructive technical setups—Walmart, CVS Health, and Comcast—that demonstrate how strength, support, and breakouts can emerge even in a choppier market environment....   READ MORE 

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Top 10 Charts Revealed -- February 2026 Market Shifts

Top 10 Charts Revealed -- February 2026 Market Shifts

Grayson Roze and Dave Keller break down the top 10 charts to watch for February, exposing where leadership is changing and where new strength is emerging. From rotation across sectors to key breakouts and bottoming patterns, these charts highlight what’s actually driving the market right now....   READ MORE 

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Failed Breakouts: How to Spot Them, Manage Risk, and Stay with Strong Charts

Failed Breakouts: How to Spot Them, Manage Risk, and Stay with Strong Charts

Markets are feeling uncertain as earnings season unfolds and the Fed meeting approaches, yet overall trends remain surprisingly strong. This week, Dave Keller explores the concept of failed breakouts and why managing risk is just as important as identifying new opportunities....   READ MORE