New Highs in QQQ and IWM Counter Weakness in SPY

The Dow Industrials SPDR and the S&P 500 ETF pulled back over the last two weeks, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF and Russell 2000 ETF held strong and hit new highs earlier this week. Relative strength in QQQ and IWM is more important than relative weakness in SPY and DIA. Relative weakess in the finance sector is echoed in the underperformance of the NYSE AD Line, which has yet to exceed its May or July highs. I am, therefore, downgrading the AD Lines to neutral. Everything else remains in bull mode.

Screen Shot 2013-10-04 at 10.15.32




  • AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line surged to a new high this month, but the NYSE AD Line has yet to exceed its May or July highs and has a bearish divergence working.
  • AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines hit new highs in September and then pulled back the last two weeks. The long-term trends are clearly up.
  • Net New Highs: Bullish. Net New Highs expanded in mid September and fell the last two weeks. The cumulative Net New Highs lines for the Nasdaq and NYSE moved to new highs again this week
  • Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All nine sector Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%.
  • VIX/VXN: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) surged from their 2013 lows and are now nearing the top of their 2013 range.
  • Trend-Structure: Bullish. DIA and SPY hit new highs in September. MDY, QQQ and IWM hit new highs this week. All five remain in uptrends overall.
  • SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI is in the 40-50 support zone, MACD(5,35,5) is positive and Aroon remains near +50.
  • Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. XLI, XLK and XLY recorded new highs in September. XLF is lagging because it has yet to exceed its August high.
  • Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA ratio moved to a new high again this week as the Nasdaq continues to outperform the NY Composite.
  • Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio surged to a new high this week and remains in an uptrend.
  • Breadth charts (here) and intermarket charts (here) have been updated.   This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure.

    This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
    not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
    We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is
    the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions.
    Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important
    to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting
    a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three
    possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios
    BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market
    conditions and sector/industry performance.
 Previous Article Next Article