Will SMCI Stock Soar in 2025? Here's What the Charts Say

About three weeks ago, we talked about Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), pointing out that the stock looked ready to break free from its sideways drift. Well, turns out it's done just that, popping above its old range and drifting steadily higher ever since. Let’s take another look and see whether there might be more gas in the tank.

Analyzing the daily chart of SMCI below, it’s clear that the stock price is moving in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, which tells us that buyers are still in charge.

In the early stage of its breakout, SMCI managed to stay above the top of the trading range. It’s now trading above its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), and momentum is relatively calm.

Neither the relative strength index (RSI) nor the percentage price oscillator (PPO) have shown a drastic strengthening of momentum since the end of June. That’s normal during the early stages of a turnaround, as bottom reversals often take longer to pan out and typically have smaller price ranges. The bigger concern here would be the lack of a significant volume increase; breakouts really take off when trading volume swells. Summer often brings light volume (“the summer doldrums”), so we may have to wait until September for a convincing surge.

A Longer-Term View

Shifting to the weekly chart of SMCI, the stock price has yet to hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If you had entered a long position at $48, your first price target would be at that 38.2% level, which brings it to $57.46. SMCI is still inching its way there and, if it gets there, we could see SMCI chop sideways before making its next move higher.

Compared with SMCI’s lightning-fast run in early 2024 (from $34 to $100 in a heartbeat) today’s pace feels like a slow ride at the moment. Of course, slow and steady can still win, but that means being patient.

The Bottom Line

SMCI can be a highly volatile stock, given it lives in the hot-and-cold world of AI hardware. Add in an S&P 500 ($SPX) that looks stretched and any broad market pullback could drag SMCI lower, too.

If you’re in the trade:

• Set price alerts around your support levels so you’re not glued to a screen. From the Scans & Alerts tab in the navigation menu, select Price Alert Workbench. If you're unsure about how to set alerts, be sure to visit our Support Center page that focuses on setting alerts.
• Keep an eye on momentum. If RSI and PPO roll over sharply, that’ll be your first early warning.
• Stick to your exit plan. The market rewards discipline, so be sure to apply your risk management strategies without letting your emotions take over.