OIL STOCKS HOLD UP OK -- GOLD STOCKS RUN INTO RESISTANCE AS BULLION FALLS

OIL ETFS STAY OVER BREAKOUT POINTS ... Despite the recent dip in oil prices, energy ETFs have held up relatively well. They're rising today on the back of a jump in the price of crude. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) staying over its March high near 44 and its 20-day moving average, which is usually the first line of defense. So far, the recent pullback looks like a normal consolidation. The Oil Service Holders (OIH) shown in Chart 2 haven't suffered any chart damage either. The OIH has stayed over its March peak near 100 and is trading over its 20-day moving average. Gold stocks aren't faring as well.

Chart 1

Chart 2

GOLD STOCKS BACK OFF FROM DOUBLE RESISTANCE AS BULLION SLIDES ... The Gold & Silver (XAU) Index has reached a couple of important resistance barriers which are causing some profit-taking. A sharp drop in the price of bullion isn't helping either. Chart 3 shows the XAU backing off from its 200-day moving average and a down trendline extending back to last November. The price of gold is taking an even bigger hit today. Chart 4 shows the Gold ETF (GLD) falling the equivalent of $8.00 today. The GLD is in danger of breaking its 200-day moving average. Part of the reason for today's gold selling might be a big jump in the U.S. Dollar and the yield on the 10-year T-note climbing back over 4%. The recent jump in gold prices began when the 10-year yield fell under 4%. Gold doesn't do as well when rates (and the dollar) are rising.

Chart 3

Chart 4