GOLD MINER ETFS ARE ALL THE RAGE -- JUNIOR MINERS ARE NOT CONFIRMING THE $XEU MOVE -- PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS ARE ALL STRONG EXCEPT COPPER -- ENERGY CHARTS ARE WEAKENING � SOFT COMMODITY CHARTS ARE SOARING

GOLD MINER ETFS ARE ALL THE RAGE... On the Top 10 Up ETF tab, the gold miners look particularly strong. The list that is shown in Chart 1 was dominated by precious metal ETF's today. GDXJ represents a flag pattern. It is trying to break out to the upside. The MACD is at the zero line. Can it make it into positive territory? Chart 2 shows the flag patterns on the GDXJ.

Chart 1

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Chart 2

JUNIOR MINERS ARE NOT CONFIRMING THE $XEU MOVE... All of us have discussed $GOLD and the $XEU tracking each other. One thing I noticed in cross-examining the relationship on Chart 3 is how they track after forming a flag pattern. The $XEU has made a flag pattern and continued higher, where the GDXJ has rolled over. On the last flag pattern, the $XEU broke out higher in a continuation, but GDXJ did not. It did not fall either though which is "different-this-time." As the $XEU continues to climb towards the rafters, the $GDXJ needs to break higher here too to confirm the move for both. The good news is stops can be placed very close under the flag pattern should it fail.

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Chart 3

Currently, the euphoria around the junior gold miners is reaching pinnacle heights, which usually means it needs a breather rather than jumping on board right here. But good bull markets are hard to break. Investors will have to decide if they are taking this breakout with a tight stop underneath, or step aside as the $COPPER and Oil commodities pull back.

PRECIOUS METAL CHARTS ARE ALL STRONG EXCEPT COPPER... The Precious Metals Performance chart looks bottom left to upper right. The exception is $COPPER. We have all pronounced the strength of copper as an economic indicator so that is worrisome. Apparently Palladium supply is dominated by the Russian Federation so it has moved significantly in the wake of the Crimean situation. Chart 4 shows a one month view.

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Chart 4

ENERGY CHARTS ARE WEAKENING ... The energy Performance chart looks a little weaker. Both solar and gasoline are up on the month view. Everything else is down a couple of % now. Heating oil is also diesel fuel for heavy truck use. Having $BRENT, $WTIC and diesel slumping on the month seems to be behaving more like copper than Gold. Chart 5 shows a one month View.

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Chart 5

SOFT COMMODITY CHARTS ARE SOARING ... The Agriculture products are all shooting higher. Even $wheat has gotten out of bed recently. I don't have coffee on this chart, but JO is the top performing ETF. JO track coffee prices.Chart 6 shows a one month view.

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Chart 6

THE GENERAL MARKET CONDITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING ... As I write this, the $VIX is spending its third day above the centre of the Bollinger bands. If we look to the left on Chart 7, we'll see that the last two weeks, the $VIX has made a higher base while still being below the centre of the Bollinger bands. History says the $VIX usually needs a couple of attempts to break out meaningfully. Fear has to set in. Usually when the $VIX is above the 20 DMA, the $SPX is below. Currently we have both above. This will resolve one way or another. As I write, it appears to be resolving with the Equities moving lower and the $VIX higher.
Chart 8 shows a new look to Stockcharts. This is one of the Decision Point Charts styles. You can see the indicators are all rolling over on a short term basis. When they are below the line, the market is usually pulling back.

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Chart 7

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Chart 8

STOCKCHARTS HAS RYDEX DATA.... With the merger of Decision Point Charts in Stockcharts.com, lots of great new indicators are available to us. Have you tried some of the Decision Point charts? From the home page on the line under the market chart and ticker cloud, you will see the link to the Decision point charts titled "DP Chart Gallery". In Chart 9 you can see the DP Chart Gallery Link Underlined.

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Chart 9

RYDEX FUND DATA AT STOCKCHARTS IS REACHING EXTREMES IN EACH CHART... Many fundamental analysts will say the market is in excellent fundamental shape. This chart below would refute that statement wholeheartedly. The first plot below the $SPX shows the 'Non bulls' divided by the bulls. The ratio is inverted so the chart moves up with the market. You can see how the 2003 and 2009 lows were low on the chart. The 2000 high was extreme. We are at the same levels.
The second plot shows just bears, not cash. When everyone is bullish, who is left to buy? In this case, the bears number is the lowest in 15 years.

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Chart 10

The third plot shows just cash holders. These funds rise when people stand aside. They also represent the amount of money available to move into the market. We have less cash available that at any time this century to push money into the market. New equity funds deposits for February were 41 Billion, reversing the money that came out in the January swoon according to Bloomberg.
The last plot represents the bulls. They stampede together. They pushed the market to the highest level of exuberance in years. We also saw this trait in 2000 and 2007. A final surge seemed to mark the top. The 2000 surge was unbelievably big. The 2007 surge was less assertive but still made 18 month highs as the market topped.
These RYDEX funds are not the best timers. They just help us recognize when we are near the Euphoric highs and the scary lows. Can they run on? Yes. But the higher $VIX base, the Asian market weakness, the $DAX head/shoulders topping pattern would appear to point to more downside risk than upside surprise.
Good trading,
Greg