WEBINAR CHARTS AND LINK -- MARKET REMAINS STUCK, BUT NOT BROKEN -- RISK INDICATOR OVERVIEW -- SECTOR SPDRS AND THEIR SEVEN BREADTH INDICATORS -- 6 ETF CHARTS -- 9 STOCK CHARTS -- Q&A: CREATING SHADED BOXES, USING THE RAFF CHANNEL AND MORE
WEBINAR CHARTS... The major index ETFs and key sector SDPDRs remain stuck in trading ranges, but we are seeing some promising signs over the last two days. As the charts in today's Webinar show, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Technology SPDR (XLK) all surged off support. The Materials SPDR (XLB) is showing signs of relative strength the last four days because it is poised for a triangle breakout. Today's Webinar focuses on SPY and IWM for the broad market. I then dive into six different risk-related indicators, which are split. The next section focuses on the nine sector SPDRs and seven breadth indicators specific to each one. This is a great way to become acquainted with many of the unique breadth indicators published here at StockCharts. Around the 30 minute mark I will start to cover six sector-industry group ETFs and nine stocks with interesting charts. Symbols covered include SOCL, PSP, RTM, PSCM, MOO, PHO, GOOGL, F, AA, FEYE, MWA, LEA, SUP, DOX and SNPS. Click here for the Webinar recording.
MARKET REMAINS STUCK, BUT NOT BROKEN... The major index ETFs have pretty much done nothing since November and this means the long-term uptrends are still in place. In fact, one could say that the stock market has been rather boring of late. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) breaking out with a move above 115 in late October and then consolidating around this level the last three months. A consolidation simply means buying pressure and selling pressure have equalized. It does not signal a material increase in selling pressure. The breakout is bullish until proven otherwise and the breakout is holding. Chartists can mark key support in the 112-113 area. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) consolidating in the 200-210 area the last three months. SPY has touched the 200 level each of the last five weeks.

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Chart 2
RISK INDICATOR OVERVIEW...

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SECTOR SPDRS AND THEIR BREADTH INDICATORS... The next charts show the nine sector SPDRs with seven breadth indicators. Note that this chart was created using a StockCharts PRO account, which allows users to plot up to ten different symbols on one chart. Extra! Members can plot up to six different symbols on one chart. I am using these seven breadth indicators to get an aggregate reading on sector breadth. The explanations are detailed below. Basically, I label the indicators bullish or bearish and then tally the readings. As you will see with the methodology, I am setting bullish and bearish thresholds to make the analysis more objective and systematic. The main window shows the bar chart for the sector SPDR.
The first indicator window shows the AD Line with SMA Envelopes (20,5,1). This indicator creates envelopes that are 5% above and below the 20-day SMA. The "1" at the end of the indicator shifts it forward one day. Basically, the AD Line favors the bulls (uptrend) when it exceeds the upper envelope and stays bullish until it breaks below the lower envelope. It then turns bearish. Using the SMA Envelope takes some of the guesswork out and makes analysis a bit more objective. I shifted the SMA Envelopes 1 day ahead to match the prior day's envelope value to the current day's price action. The second indicator shows the AD Volume Line with the same SMA Envelope.
The third indicator shows High-Low Percent with horizontal lines at +5% and -5%. This is a long-term indicator. A break above +5% is bullish and it remains bullish until a break below -5%, which then turns the indicator bearish.
The fourth indicator shows the percentage of stocks above the 200-day EMA. This is also a long-term indicator. This indicator is bullish when it exceeds 60% and stays bullish until a move below 40%, which then turns the indicator bearish.
The fifth indicator is the percentage of stocks above the 50-day EMA and the sixth indicator is the percentage of stocks above the 20-day EMA. A move above 70% is bullish until countered with a move below 30%. I am basically looking for some sort of breadth thrust here. I am using a wider threshold to prevent whipsaw.
The seventh indicator is the Bullish Percent Index, which measures the percentage of stocks on P&F buy signals (double top breakout). I am also using the SMA envelopes, but ignoring bearish signals when the indicator is above 70%. The indicator is bearish when it moves below the lower envelope and is below 70%. It turns bullish when it moves above the upper envelope and is above 30%. Bullish signals below 30% are ignored.

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