DOW BREAKS 2018 LOW AND SIGNALS LOWER PRICES -- THE S&P 500 IS TESTING SUPPORT LINES
LOWER TARGET FOR THE DOW... My weekend message showed the Dow Industrials testing important chart support along its late 2018 low. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Dow falling below that important support line this week. That raises the likelihood of even lower prices. The question is how low. The best way to determine the next potential downside target is to look at previous corrections/or consolidation patterns for potential support. And that would be the corrective period between 2015 and early 2016 marked by the two lower green horizontal lines. The upper line marks the top of that period near 18,350. The lower line marks the corrective bottom near 15,400. Those two potential support levels also make sense from a long-range perspective as shown in the next chart.
FIBONNACI RETRACEMENT LINES MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT... The monthly bars in Chart 2 show those potential support levels in Chart 1 corresponding closely with 50% and 62% Fibonnaci retracements of the eleven-year bull market. Retracements of that size aren't unusual during bear markets. Chart 2 also shows the Dow falling below its major support line extending back to 2009 (red line). That also increases the technical odds for lower prices.
S&P 500 TESTING SUPPORT LINES... The monthly bars in Chart 3 show the S&P 500 also threatening its eleven year uptrend line and its December 2018 low at 2346. A decisive close below both of them would also signal lower prices.
