RISING EURO PUSHES DOLLAR TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH -- A WEAKER DOLLAR IS BOOSTING ENERGY AND METAL PRICES -- AND STOCKS TIED TO THEM

RISING EURO PUSHES DOLLAR LOWER...Chart 1 show the Invesco Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) declining today to the lowest level since March.  The dollar surged during the first quarter in a flight to safety as stock prices plunged.   Then fell from late March to July as stocks recovered.   And it's doing the same today.  Although most major foreign currencies are rising against the dollar, the dollar's biggest drop is coming against the euro.  Chart 2 show the euro rising today to the highest level since March.  The euro accounts for 57% of the Dollar Index and exerts the biggest influence on the greenback.   One of the side-effects of a weaker dollar is rising commodity prices.  And we're seeing that today with most commodity prices rising.  Crude oil and precious metals are having an especially strong day as are stocks tied to them.   Energy stocks are leading the stock market higher today with a gain of 6%.   WTIC crude is trading over $42 (+3%) for the first time in more than four months.   Gold and silver prices are sharply higher today with silver again in the lead over gold (by a 6% to 1% margin).   Silver miners are leading gold miners by a 4% to 2% margin.

PRECIOUS METALS CONTINUE TO SURGE... The weekly bars in Chart 3 show the Silver Trust iShares (SLV) challenging its 2016 peak.  A close above that chart barrier would put the price of silver at the highest level in six years.   Gold and silver miners are also having a strong day.  While the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is trading at the highest level in seven years, Chart 4 shows the Global X Silver Miners Index (SIL) moving up toward its 2016 peak as well.    Gold is trading $22 higher today at $1840. Chart 5 shows gold nearing a record high established during 2011.   Gold has the stronger pattern of the two metals.   As yesterday's message pointed out, however, the gold/silver ratio is at the highest level in fifty years; which makes silver a much cheaper alternative to the more expense gold market.   The bigger point is that both metals are being bought heavily along with several other commodities like copper and oil.   Stocks tied to those commodities are rising as well.    A weaker dollar has a lot to do with that.