STOCKS HAVE A STRONG WEEK WITHIN DOWNTREND -- MARKET BREADTH REMAINS WEAK -- COPPER SELLING SIGNALS ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

BEAR MARKET BOUNCE...Major stock indexes had their first gain in three weeks and made up for the previous week's big losses.   But any rebound still has to be viewed as a bear market bounce.  The weekly bars in the first three charts below paint a similar picture.  The 14-week RSI line in the upper boxes show a small "double bottom" near oversold territory at 30.   That suggests that stocks are oversold.  The weekly price bars, however, show the three major stock indexes still in a bearish pattern of falling peaks and troughs with no convincing signs of a bottom.  Moving average lines also remain bearish as do the weekly MACD lines in the lower boxes.   Market breadth also remains weak.

NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE STILL IN DOWNTREND... Market breadth remains weak.   Chart 4 shows the NYSE Common Stock Only Advance-Decline Line in a downtrend as well.   The only positive signs on the chart show some strength in its daily RSI and MACD lines.   That simply suggests that it too is in an oversold condition within an overall downtrend.   That could lead to more short-term strength but within the context of a bearish environment.

BREAKDOWN IN COPPER SUGGESTS ECONOMIC WEAKNESS... Commodity prices have started to weaken which carries a mixed message.   A positive view suggests that commodity weakness is a sign that inflation pressures are easing.  A more negative view, however, suggests that commodity selling is an early sign of a slowing economy.   That's especially true of copper which has long been viewed as a leading economic indicator of the global economy.   And the red metal is now in a downtrend.   The weekly bars in Chart 5 show the price of copper having fallen to the lowest level since early 2021.  In addition, its blue 10-week moving average has fallen below its red 40-day line which is another bearish sign for it and the economy.  It's also another bearish sign for the stock market.