The common economic perception is that lower interest rates are good for business, which, in turn, means good for job growth. The following charts will turn that idea upside down and inside out. Keep in mind there is no chart fancy-dancing going on here; I am just presenting the last 45 years of rates vs employment.

The blue line in the following three charts represent interest rates. When the blue line was rising, rates were increasing. When declining, interest rates went down.

In black, you see employment as a percentage of population. When more people are getting jobs, it advances. As people lose jobs, it declines.

That's all there is to it. Now, let's look to see the relationship between rates and jobs.

In Chart 1, we see 20 years of data starting in 1976 as rates advanced sharply. In classic theory, we should have lost jobs; the black line should have gone down. Rates declined briefly from late 1979 to 1980... while jobs went down!!

In mid-1980 rates again soared and... we had more people back to work and the percent employed line went up. Again!

From 1981 to 1983, rates declined. So did jobs. Starting in 1983, rates went back up as more people went back to work. In 1989, rates were lowered until 1993. Take a look at what happened to the percent employed... again it went down!!

Throw away those Econ 101 textbooks. They don't match reality.

The next 20 years continued to reflect the same relationship. When rates went up, jobs went up. In September 2003, 62.1 percent of the total population was at work. By December 2006, 63.4 percent were employed at the same points the 10-year Real Interest Rate was 1.3. It reached 2.12 in December 2006.

Again, we see "rates up" is good for job growth. And, again, it is just amazing. I had to triple check the data --- it was almost impossible to believe what I was seeing.

In his classic novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell wrote, "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." There it is: don't believe your lying eyes. Study those textbooks.

Well gang, here we are up to date with 2006 to 2024 (Chart 3). 18 more years to see if there is a stable, on-going relationship here. What do those lying eyes tell you? I know what mine tell me: higher rates appear to create more jobs. My mind goes back to the most powerful line Jack Nicholson shouted to Tom Cruise, in the movie A Few Good Men. "You can't handle the truth!" Yet there it is, in black and blue.

Why This Matters

As I see it, one of the very best fundamental indicators for the stock market is employment, or lack of it. You have read this before in these letters; when people are out of work, they can't buy stuff companies make. So earnings, as well as stock prices, decline. It appears the percent employed is now about go down.

I'm taking you back in time now to 1948-1959. Stocks are in red, and the percent employed is in black. The pattern is that stocks bottom, and then people get back to work. The flip side of the coin is when the black line goes down (people not working), stocks decline.

This was clearly the pattern from 1965 to 1980 as well. The horrendous bear market of 1973-1975 followed the pattern. Perfect? No. Nothing is, as we see in the next chart.

From 1988 through 1998 the basic pattern is there... people at work are bullish. However, the downturn in jobs in 1990 to 1992 did not see a bear market. At best, stocks were choppy when people lost jobs in 1990. The key here is to know that once stocks start to rally, as they did in 1991, jobs will follow suit.

Here we are up to date with 1993 through 2024. Clearly, the bear markets of 2000 and 2008 were perfectly foreshadowed by the percent employed declining. A close-up shows jobs have been declining. Not good news at all.

You can see this data at the FRED website, which is where you will find Chart 8. It shows the pattern of downturns in employment and recessionary times. Recessions are the grey vertical lines. As I told you, this is one of the best data series to forecast the future. If this bull market is to continue, we need to see an increase in employment in the October or November reports (usually released the first week of the month).

The 12-month rate of change in Chart 9, I think, reflects the real lack of direction of job growth. The key is that it will not take much change in employment to determine the real trend here. I will be watching for the October release.

TDOM 19 and a Million Dollars

Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, I did a seminar where I traded $1,000,000 for 3-4 days and then shared 20% of the profits with attendees (usually around 50 people). Talk about pressure! It was a crazy thing to do, unheard of. We wrote a lot of checks. Some of those students are still with me, today, reading this letter. I hope they won't mind too much if I reveal one of the trades we took.

The trade was simply this; buy on the 19th trading day of October (trading day, not calendar day). Use a dollar stop and exit after a few trading days (4 to 10) in the trade.

Table 1 shows the last 26 years' results of that strategy in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contract. Most of those years are out of a sample from my original teachings of this trade.

The trade has held up well. 84 percent of the trades have been profitable using a $2,800 stop, while holding for 6 days and then exiting on the first profitable opening. Clearly, we have a very good trade setup here. Of the $35,087 total net profits, only $6,350 came from the largest winner. So it has a broad-based response.

Of course, we always want to make things better. One way of zeroing in on this opportunity is to use my Trading Day Left in the Month concept. As you see in Table 1, there have been 26 years with 19 trading days, 17 years with 22 trading days, and 9 years with 23 trading days. All months are not created equal. Some have fewer trading days than others.

To balance this out, we can test buying on the Xth Trading Day Left in the month. Those results are in Table 2. This way, all 26 years will have the same number of days at the month's end. What we see here is that buying on the 3rd trading day left in October has been the best. It brought home some $58,000 of profits (total).

This year, October has 23 trading days. TDOM 19 is on October 25th, while the 3rd trading day left is the 29th.

As you know, I do not take these in a mechanical fashion. They are a very powerful guideline to help me. As a trader, I use them to focus when to take action. That time will be at the end of October.

While the tests here are on the futures contract, the same time zone works for stock market ETFs. Need proof? Here is my true seasonal on the triple Qs, as well as the Dow Jones.

Wealth is Not Health

Last month, I wrote about Arthrosamid. I had an injection of it in August of this year. As you recall, hydrogel (Arthrosamid), when injected into the knee joint, is taken up by the synovial cells and forms a new joint lining. This new lining reduces the knee's inflammation, leading to less pain. The gel also produces cushioning and lubrication. Essentially, it is an implant as the gel sticks/stays in the joint, painting over the damaged area. Hopefully, this will avoid having to get a partial knee replacement.

It is now almost 2 months later and I can say... this one works. There is definitely less pain in the left, injected knee. This despite a lot of high, long, and triple jump training (as well as sprint workouts) while getting ready for the Senior Olympics. Hopefully, it will soon be available in the States. At this time, it is widely available in Europe, including in the UK, Norway, and Sweden.

Bank on This --- It Happens to Us All

Aging is not a pleasant process. It will happen. We can, however, make the process less painful in many ways. One sure thing, though, is that we will all have some form of arthritis in at least some of our joints. Entropy reigns supreme.

A cheaper way than Arthrosamid to get rid of (or protect from) joint pain may be green lipped mussel extract. This New Zealand product shows some evidence of helping get rid of joint pain.

While there are lots of tests on rats, etc., there has been little done on real people. One study using an extract of these mussels concluded that "Treatment led to significant improvement of the signs and symptoms of osteoarthritis as determined by all efficacy measures. After a 4- and 8-week treatment period, 53 percent and 80 percent (respectively) of patients experienced significant pain relief, and improvement of joint function. There was no reported adverse effect during this clinical trial. This a promising anti-inflammatory product that relieves the signs and symptoms of osteoarthritis, without adverse effect."

In another study, I found a team of physicians headed by Robin Gibson, MD. In a preliminary test carried out with 86 patients, 55 had rheumatoid arthritis and 31 had osteoarthritis. The results showed 67 percent of the rheumatoid and 35 percent of the osteoarthritic patients showed reduction of symptoms from supplementation with green-lipped mussel extract. The patients in the study had their condition on average for over 15 years (advanced stage). Most were listed as potential candidates for surgery. Stopping the arthritis process and reversing it at this stage is an extremely difficult challenge.

The most exciting thing to me was to find this extract may actually regrow cartilage in our joints. In one study, X-ray findings showed a reversal of progressive joint space narrowing in eight patients and stabilization of the joint spaces in patients with Grade I and II osteoarthritis; this strongly suggests an anabolic effect of the green mussel extract.

Dr. Lloyd A. Hurley, MD, participating in the study, said "The dogma that cartilage cannot heal and repair itself may be a misconception. Before this study there was evidence from experience with osteotomy of the hip and of the knee that osteoarthritic changes could be reversed. The thesis developed at the beginning of this study was that the sequence of events resulting in osteoarthritis is subject to arrest and sometimes reversal, in the clinical office practice of orthopedic medicine. The experience gleaned from the day to day subjective and objective evaluation of patients included in this study suggests that this thesis is probable."

A clinical study conducted by Massey University, part of the Musseling Up research program, found that Greenshell™ mussel powder significantly reduced knee pain in post-menopausal women over a 12-week period. Participants who consumed three grams of the mussel powder daily reported less joint pain compared to those on a placebo. In other trials, up to 87 percent of participants using green-lipped mussel powder reported significant improvements compared to placebo.

The conclusion was, "Ongoing research in both animal and human studies continue to demonstrate that the use of the entire Perna canaliculus organism (Green Lipped Mussels) represents a safe and effective nutritional product for the management of osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis. Results indicate this is especially effective against Grade I and II arthritis where the disease has not led to major loss of the articular cartilage.

The bottom line is that the doctors reported that patients suffering from intense Level 7 pain at the beginning of the study reported a barely-there Level 2 by the end of the study. Dosage seems to be in the 1000-2000mg per day. Expect to notice results after four weeks.

A Good Way to See if Any Health Supplement Really Works

We can always scour the Cochrane reports or the National Library of Medicine for efficacy of supplements or medicines. Taking it ourselves — admittedly a study of one —and that one is you, is my favorite.

I also use Amazon reviews as part of my research. Most supplements will have positive reviews about 50% of the time. To my way of thinking, anything over 60 percent is a real positive. As an example, most reviews for Green Lipped Mussel supplements are over 60 percent, with several in the 70s. Lots of Amazon positive review for dogs and cats as well as for this one.

Cancer

I am uneasy writing about this one. Cancer bothers me because there are so many alternative approaches that are bogus. Meanwhile, traditional cancer treatment has gotten much better over the last 30 years. Yet still the approach seems to be poison or burn. Traditional therapy has saved friends' lives. When it comes to alternative therapies, most that I have seen did not work. Yet... two friends with pancreatic cancer, probably the worst you can get, survived.

Years ago, I researched something called Cancell. I interviewed over 100 people who swore it worked. I saw living proof it did --- and did not --- work.

One out of every two of us will develop cancer. While the number of deaths from heart disease in the USA reporting period was 702,880, cancer was a close second with 608,371. Just staggering figures. Hence my personal goal has been to take preventative measures to not get the Big C, as John Wayne did and called it.

In the future, I expect we will see more evidence that simple aspirin is an effective cancer fighter. There is a good deal of evidence on that already. Cancer cells are highly alkaline; aspirin being highly acidic promotes apoptosis of cancer cells.

Another supplement I take is Artemisinin, a compound from sweet wormwood that also promotes apoptosis of cancer cells. Research suggests it does so by tempering the action of proteins called cytokines that help instigate inflammation. By doing so, wormwood may help ease inflammatory symptoms like pain, redness, warmth, and swelling. In the past, this has largely been used as a drug for Malaria.

But, of late, there is a new twist.

This says it best: "The world is experiencing a cancer epidemic. Cancer remains a major killer, accounting for more than half a million deaths annually. There is a wide range of natural products that have the potential to treat this disease. One of these products is artemisinin; a natural product from Artemisia plant. The Nobel Prize for Medicine was awarded in 2015 for the discovery of artemisinin in recognition of the drug's efficacy. Artemisinin produces highly reactive free radicals by the breakdown of two oxygen atoms that kill cancerous cells. These cells sequester iron and accumulate as much as 1000 times in comparison with normal cells. Generally, chemotherapy is toxic to both cancerous cells and normal cells, while no significant cytotoxicity from artemisinin to normal cells has been found in more than 4000 case studies, which makes it far different than conventional chemotherapy." All italics added.

Limited clinical trials have shown positive outcomes. For instance, a small trial indicated that all participants with advanced cervical cancer went into remission after treatment with artemisinin.

Cancer cells rely on iron to spread. When iron and artemisinin enter a cancer cell together, they form atoms called free radicals that kill cancer cells without harming normal ones. Studies show that artemisinin may slow the spread of tumors. It could also cause cancer cells to self-destruct, stop dividing and spreading, as well as getting cut off from their blood supply.

Dosage seems to be 1000mg a day. I take this as a preventative measure for 5 days, about every 3 months.

Does any of this matter?

My longevity theory is that as children we are very active; as we age, we become less active, until we move very little and life ends. Hence, to stay active is the key to a longer and healthier life.

One must ask, do all these supplements, health hacks and such really work? I needed an answer to that, so I looked at results from my favorite test subject. That's me. I have been competing in senior track meets for the last five years. My data may give us some clues. That data comes from looking and my times in the sprints and distances in my long, triple, and high jumps. How much slower am I now than 5 years ago? Over the last 5 years my times in the 60 and 100 meter have actually dropped, faster now than then. My high jump has increased by one inch but my 200-meter time is 2 seconds slower. Broad and triple jumps have also improved. The takeaway? Yes, we can slow down the beast of aging. Without hard work, this cannot happen, but it appears supplements can help. Yes, I am drug free.

Please keep in mind I have no medical training. This is just one man's experiment in trying to live better. You need to test and research for yourself.

First a Look at the Futures Markets...

As I see it, Gold is about to decline, while Crude Oil will rally. I begin our journey through the charts with a look at Crude Oil.

In Chart 12, you see the relationship between Crude Oil on a weekly basis and the Commitments of Traders (COT) Report. The red line represents the commercials position as measured by my COT Index. The blue and green lines represent the same thing, with the blue line showing the activity of large traders (trend followers) while the green line shows us what small speculators have been doing.

What we are seeing at this time is a juxtaposition; the red line is quite high with low green and blue lines. This means small speculators and large traders (they typically do the wrong thing) are not buyers currently. In other words, these two forces are diametrically opposed at this time to the commercials.

I have marked off similar instances in the past. You can see for yourself the importance of this juxtaposition. Note the same pattern in 2023 at the beginning of the year, in midyear, and again at the start of 2024. This is significant. This has nothing to do with price cycles or technical analysis. What you are seeing is the actual buying and selling of three distinct and important participants in the marketplace. The current pattern is bullish.

Next let's take a look at the ETF for Crude Oil using StockCharts.com.

What we see in Chart 13 is that typically Crude Oil rallies at this time year. More important, though, is my valuation tool (WillVal), which shows that Crude Oil is clearly undervalued at this time. Again, this is not a technical tool, it is an absolute measure of value. Check out prior readings and you will see the significance of this indicator. It is not a timing tool, but a very helpful selection tool.

Let's turn our attention to what cycles suggest for Crude.

I am showing the very short-term cycles all blended together for Crude. The picture I see suggests we want to be a buyer on any pullback in this market. And, of course, if you are not a commodity trader, you can use the ETF, as mentioned and shown above.

When it comes to Gold, I've been bearish on this market for some time. I went short awhile back, only to be stopped out. I have been sitting on the sidelines, but it's time to reenter. Why? Primarily because of the Commitments of Traders Report. Let's delve into our next chart below of Gold.

Here is a formation that just cannot go on. The red line, as you know, is the position of the commercials. They are the actual users and producers of Gold. Their condition is exactly the opposite of what we saw at the lows in October 2023. Their current position has been declining. That tells us they have been exiting the market and/or hedging; selling short. Pay attention to how in the past, when the line was going up and adding to the long positions, price followed with a rally.

But as a man on TV says, there's more... I have circled the very low readings that you see in this market going back to 2021. For the commercials to get this short or negative, well, see for yourself what happened: lower prices. Expect the same here.

The blue traders show they have on one of the largest net long positions. That is the real overhang negative on this market. There's nobody left to buy. All this will soon fade away. This is how the markets work. They cannot stay net long forever.

When we turn our attention to the ETF for Gold (which is GLD in StockCharts), as you see here, the Money Flow Index is in the sell area. This is the exact opposite of what we saw in Crude Oil. Meanwhile, the seasonal pattern tells us Gold usually declines at this time of the year.

Finally, we can take a look at what cycles suggest.

The picture here is not a pretty one for perpetual Gold bugs. Cycles are telling us to expect Gold to decline into the first part of the year. As you know, this has usually happened to the price of Gold. That doesn't mean it will happen this year or every year. It just means this is the typical traditional pattern. What makes it work the best is when we see cycles align with fundamentals and seasonals. We then have the best odds for a trade. That is exactly where I think we are now in both of these markets.

Here is one more look at what appears to be the controlling cycles in Gold.

The green wave (or cycle pattern) has been seen 10 times since Gold began trading. 80% of the time that this pattern has been present, Gold declined. In blue, you see the intermediate pattern. That appears to drive the shorter-term moves that popup about every 3-to-4 months.

Traders may also look to take long positions in the US Dollar. It has a similar setup to Crude Oil.

Hey Buddy, You Got $680,000 to Spare?

Most people can't ride Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) stock train, with the cost of entry at $685,200 per share. Amazing to think that almost three quarters of a million bucks buys only a measly 1 share.

There is a way around this, as shown in the following chart. I have inserted 3 of Warren's favorite long-term stocks. They are Chubb Ltd., plotted in red (the massive insurance company), Coco-Cola Co., plotted in magenta (the ubiquitous marketer of sugar in one form or another), and Kinsale Capital Group Inc., plotted in blue (another insurance company where the Sage of Omaha holds a large position).

Clearly these three stocks have been among the best gainers in the portfolio. So instead of plunking down $680,000, you might consider a portfolio of these three stocks.

One stock, Coca-Cola (KO) appears to most closely parallel Berkshire. While not cheap, it's currently about $70 per share. This looks like the best way a poor boy can sneak aboard Warren's train.

Next, let's take a look at my cycle forecast to see when the best time to hop aboard the train might be.

Looks like the projected October low, as well as late next January, are ideal entry times. You can confirm that with my tools in StockCharts.com.

Next is the weekly chart with my True Seasonal pattern, as well as my Money Flow index. These are used to alert us as to when funds --- like Buffet's --- step in and buy.

Now to Rest of the Stocks

Since this is the last of my Focus on Stocks newsletters, I am showing the forecasts for quite a few stocks. Traders like you have asked me to report on some as well as the traditional widely-followed issues. They are shown here without comment, as the charts say it all.

Here you see Vistra (VST), the stock that kicked Nvidia off the front page to become the number one gainer, so far, for the year. Bobby Dylan sang it best: "The first one now shall later be last." That is a universal truism of hot stocks. The blue line in the chart is the longer-term cycle, while in red we see the intermediate term path I expect this stock will follow. You really do not want to get carried away with all the recent market hype.

And Now: Stock Market Timing

As you well know, I have been expecting a decline in here. It has failed to materialize. It's been a strange one, with market averages making new highs while most of the stocks we follow have not.

Why is this? I think it is due to a change in the very composition of the NYSE. Let me explain.

The NYSE used to be dominated by company stocks. The switcheroo has been the growth of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Most of these are set up to act as a proxy for the broad market averages. There are lots of them; some 3,200 of these trade world wide.

Currently 2,272 stocks are listed on the NYSE and another 3,700 on the Nasdaq. There are 77 S&P 500 index funds, 265 equity funds, 91 world equity funds and a little over 80 hybrid stock and bond funds. That means almost 20% of today's market movements are biased by the ETF market. That hurts some of our old standby tools (like the number of stocks advancing each day as well as new highs, lows and volume) as about 20% of the action is pure duplication.

Of course this set me to thinking about how it influences cycles, as well as what market averages best represent companies, not ETFs. Still thinking on this, I made some small changes in my cycle studies.

And here we have them --- the path prices should follow...

Here we see the dichotomy I just mentioned. The hot stocks on this exchange have not matched the broader averages. Should we see a rally in October? Yes.

Cycles also suggest a rally mid to later in the month.

This has been the strongest of the averages. Why? Has there been a flight to quality as investors have shied away from the more speculative NASDAQ? Sure looks like that, a certain touch of bearishness.

The bottom line here is that I still expect an October selloff that sets up a nice buy point. Do not be afraid of the decline when it comes.

Closing Comments

I hope you have enjoyed and learned from my pontifications over the last year that we have been together.

None of this would have taken place if not for StockCharts. Chip Anderson, the president, created the space for this to happen, while Rachel Ackley was the producer. I'll ride any river, with either of them, any day of the week. It has been one of the best relationships I have ever had.

Most of you have interacted with Louise Stapleton, my wife, who also makes this possible. I never learned to type and spell check only a little. So Louise saves the day making sense out of the points I try to express.

All of us want to thank you for your support.

Wishing, happy trails to you,

Larry Williams

P.S. All I plan on doing in the future is trade, enjoy life without emails to answer, and do my forecast report. Join our email list to know when that will be released at www.ireallytrade.com. We will, of course, still support our courses and indicators.