Last week's upheaval in Eqypt contributed to a sharp decline in US stocks on Friday. Even though the upheaval began early last week (Tuesday), the Egypt ETF (EGPT) gave fair warning with a support break a week earlier (January 18th). This looks like a classic case of the... READ MORE
After grinding higher for several weeks to keep the uptrend in place, stocks turned sharply lower on Friday and the bulk of the short-term evidence is now bearish. Media suggests that the turmoil in Egypt is the culprit for the sharp decline in stocks and the bounce in the... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) broke above consolidation resistance on Thursday, but failed to hold this breakout after a sharp decline early Friday. XLY formed a long black candlestick that pushed the ETF to its lowest level since late December. An important support test is at hand. Click this image... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains positive, but cracks in the bullish case are starting to appear. It all started with relative weakness in small-caps and the consumer discretionary sector, two important areas of the market. This week we saw DIA, QQQQ and SPY eke out new 52-week highs, but... READ MORE
There is no change in the short-term trend or key indicators. Price-wise, the SPY trend is up as the ETF holds its rising price channel. Key support on the 60-minute chart remains at 128. A move below this level would reverse the current uptrend and call for... READ MORE
The Steel ETF (SLX) is running into stiff resistance just above 75 with a bearish engulfing two weeks ago and a potentially bearish harami today. After a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday, the stock moved sharply lower today with a long black candlestick. Today's body (open-... READ MORE
It is certainly tempting to pick a top and turn bearish now, but such thoughts bring me back to a quote from Dirty Harry. You've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya punk bear? As noted before, sentiment is excessively... READ MORE
Don't forget that it is earnings season! AMGN falls after shooting star. BOOM forms bull flag. GMS hits resistance at gap. Plus FLO, LEAP, LOGI and WDC. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold... READ MORE
From the pre-defined scans page, the number of new 52-week highs continues to outpace the number of new 52-week lows. This is true for the Nasdaq, NYSE, Amex, TSE and CDNX. The latter two are Canadian exchanges. New highs are a show of strength, not weakness. Click... READ MORE
Stocks have traded flat the last few days, but the fireworks could start soon. The State of the Union address is out of the way with no major surprises and the Fed makes its policy statement today. Fed days are dangerous because of their volatility, which usually kicks in around... READ MORE
The year-to-date sector scorecard shows the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) lagging the S&P 500. Moreover, XLB is the only sector sporting a loss for 2011. The technology, industrials, energy and finance sectors show relative strength with gains greater than the S&P 500. Click this... READ MORE
It's earnings season. Stocks reporting earnings are prone to higher volatility and risk. ARO backs off resistance, AZO forms tight consolidation. LLY firms on big volume. PFCM forms bear flag. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to... READ MORE
Stocks were broadly higher on Monday as the Dow Industrials zoomed to a new 52-week high. The Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were also up on the day, but did not record new 52-week highs. The Dow is leading. The rest are lagging. I... READ MORE
Grains are on the run with a breakout in the DJ-UBS Wheat Index ($DJAWH). The chart below shows the index surging in early December, consolidating for seven weeks and then breaking consolidation resistance the last few days. RSI broke its downtrend in early December and held the 40-50... READ MORE
It is a pretty big week news-wise. First, earnings season is in full swing with over 350 reports slated for this week (and next). Second, the Fed starts its two day meeting on Tuesday with its policy statement expected at 2:15PM on Wednesday. Third, there will be a... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) led the market this week with a new 52-week high on Friday. Not bad considering the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) suffered its biggest weekly loss since early August. Overall, the up trends for the major index ETFs remain in place as they recorded new... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the major index ETFs lower this week with a decline to its January lows. The ETF is testing support from these lows and showing relative weakness. Notice the Price Relative in the lower window. This indicator turned sharply lower this week and broke the... READ MORE
For the first time in many weeks, two indicator groups were downgraded in the indicator summary. Relative weakness in the Technology ETF (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) caused me to downgrade offensive sector performance from bullish to neutral. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) are still holding... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY dipped below the lower trendline of the rising channel, but bounced to close back above the trendline. This channel covers the short-term uptrend. The medium-term uptrend is defined by bigger events, namely the break above the November high. This resistance break becomes the... READ MORE
The S&P 500 surged above 1296 and then quickly fell below 1278 to forge a high-pole warning on the P&F chart. Despite this warning, the index remains above a clear support level marked by three reaction lows at 1263. Notice how the three columns of... READ MORE
Overall, SPY continues to move higher within a tight rising price channel. Obviously, this channel cannot hold forever. Wednesday's decline (-.98%) was the sharpest 1-day loss since late November, the 26th to be exact. This means we have just witnessed the most selling pressure in 37 trading... READ MORE
ECL bucks the trend with wedge breakout. KO forms bearish wedge. PNRA forms bearish pennant. Plus AZO, DRI, KMX, LLY, MHK and RHT. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock... READ MORE
While the Gold Trust SPDR (GLD) pulled back rather sharply in 2011, the Platinum ETN (PGM) held strong and recorded a new 52-week high this week. Platinum was lagging gold until from early August until late November. The PGM:GLD ratio bottomed at the end of November and moved... READ MORE
The intermarket arena continues to heat up as the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) breaks resistance and the Gold SPDR (GLD) forms a bull wedge. As noted yesterday, the Euro broke support in early January, but this support break failed to hold and the ETF rallied all the way back to... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) has not seen a loss greater than 1/2% since November 30th, around six weeks ago. There have been plenty of gains greater than 1/2% and even a few losses, but no painful losses. Moreover, this remarkable streak shows no signs of ending as... READ MORE
There is no change in the stock market analysis. Both the medium-term (daily chart) and short-term (60-minute chart) trends are up with no signs of selling pressure. Focus may turn to the intermarket area as bond yields test support, the Euro challenges resistacne and trades at a... READ MORE
AVP fails to hold breakout. GERN forms small ascending triangle. YHOO extends consolidation. Plus ERTS, HRB, SUSS. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
With two weeks underway, stocks are taking the lead and gold is taking the lag for 2011. Of the five inter-market related ETFs, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the US Dollar Fund (UUP) are up this year. The USO Oil Fund (USO), 20+ year Bond ETF... READ MORE
The stock market appears to be on bullish auto-pilot. In fact, it seems that a bit of complacency may be setting in. While I remain concerned with excessively bullish sentiment, a bearish signal in the put-call ratio and overbought conditions, there is simply no evidence of selling pressure... READ MORE
Unsurprisingly, there is not change in the analysis of the daily or 60-minute charts. This December-January advance is looking awfully familiar. Looking back, we can see that SPY surged in early September, CCI became overbought and the ETF continued higher the next seven weeks. Looking at the current... READ MORE
With a tight trading range the last several weeks, the Bollinger Bands have significantly narrowed for Analog Devices (ADI) - and the squeeze is on. A close above the upper band would be short-term bullish, while a close below the lower band would be short-term bearish. Be careful. Sometimes... READ MORE
This December-January advance is looking awfully familiar. Looking back, we can see that SPY surged in early September, CCI became overbought and the ETF continued higher the next seven weeks. Looking at the current rally, we can see that SPY surged in early December, CCI became overbought and the... READ MORE
AMGN forms bull flag. BAX surges off support with good volume. ERTS firms within small wedge. Plus GILD, JWN, K. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
The Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) remains on of the top performing sectors in the market. Since breaking resistance in September, the ETF advanced with a series of consolidation breakout. With the surge over the last three days, the ETF broke flag/wedge resistance and scored a 52-week high today.... READ MORE
There is no change in the SPY trends so I will add coverage of the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX), Euro Currency Trust (FXE) and Gold SPDR (GLD) today. Interest rates remain in an uptrend overall and the 10-year Treasury Yield has been consolidating since mid December. Support resides... READ MORE
Even though the market has been moving higher since mid December, Expeditors has been under pressure and shown relative weakness. It all started with a bearish engulfing in early December. The stock gapped up on the first trading day of 2011, but failed to hold the gap and declined the... READ MORE
There is no change in the analysis for the medium-term (daily chart) or short-term (60-minute chart). SPY remains in a medium-term uptrend as the ETF recorded a new 52-week high last week. SPY started the week strong with an open above 126, but then stalled... READ MORE
ISRG challenges resistance. MMM bounces with long white candle. NEM hits channel support. Plus CHUX, GERN, NEM, THO This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
Oil is trading up over 1% early Monday, but the Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) is down over 1.5%. OIH seems to have some doubts regarding this pipeline related pop in crude. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
Short-term breadth indicators turned bullish in early December and remain bullish. These are the 10-day SMA for Net Advances and Net Advancing Volume for both the Nasdaq and NYSE. There are two breadth indicators for each major exchange. Breadth is bullish when all four break above +100 and... READ MORE