There were a couple of bullish developments in the intermarket area over the last few weeks. First, bonds have been moving down and interest rates higher since late August. Bonds have been negatively correlated with stocks in 2010. Interest rates have been positively correlated. Despite an overall uptrend in rates,... READ MORE
Since moving below 50% in June, the Info Tech Bullish% ($BPTECH) has been oscillating above/below the 50% line the last three months. This reflects indecision and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The overall trend is down for BPI, which gives the current edge to the bears. Look for... READ MORE
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) reached an extreme five days ago that could foreshadow a pullback or top in the stock market. The chart below shows the VIX with Bollinger Bands. Notice that the indicator moved below the lower band on September 3rd for the first time... READ MORE
The Brazilian Bovespa Index ($BVSP) is one of the best performing markets since late May. After surging in July, the index formed a large falling flag in August and broke above flag resistance the last few days. This calls for a continuation of the uptrend with the April high marking... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY remains within a large consolidation with support around 104 and resistance around 113. The ETF closed at 111.48 and the futures are pointing to a little upside pop on the open. At some point, performance anxiety may enter the picture to propel the ETF... READ MORE
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) surged to resistance at the end of August and then formed a big bearish engulfing the first trading day of September. After stalling on Thursday-Friday last week, the stock gapped up on Tuesday and then came down hard Wednesday-Thursday this week. The gap failed and... READ MORE
The indicator summary has been switching from positive to negative since May. This coincides with a trading range in the S&P 500 since May. This week the Bullish Percent Indices and Volatility Indices flipped into bull mode. While the majority of indicators are bullish overall, many remain vulnerable... READ MORE
There is no real change on the daily chart as SPY labors higher. The ETF fell back with a red candlestick on Tuesday, edged higher with a small white candlestick on Wednesday and then formed a filled black candlestick yesterday. Black means the close was up from the prior close.... READ MORE
Even though the market as a whole was up on Thursday afternoon, a quick look at the intraday market summary reveals some relative weakness in small-caps. Of the 10 major indices shown, the Russell 2000 ($RUT) and the S&P 600 SmallCap Index ($SML) are the only two losers.... READ MORE
For short-term traders, SPY is currently caught between a rock and a hard place. The swing is clearly up after last week's breakout, but the ETF became overbought with Friday's close above 111. Also note that the ETF remains in a large trading range that extends... READ MORE
With a big move in the TSX Composite ($TSX) over the last two weeks, Net New Highs surged to their highest level since April. Notice that Net New Highs turned positive in early July, strengthened in August and then broke above +50 in late August. Click this image for a... READ MORE
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is currently on an upswing within a larger consolidation. This larger consolidation is, of course, the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Unconfirmed, this pattern is just one big consolidation or trading range. Confirmed, with a break above the June-August highs, it... READ MORE
Last week's breakout and extended surge reversed the August downtrend. Also note that SPY formed a higher low in late August. With strong breadth and strong follow through on Thursday and Friday, this breakout looks like the start of an extended advance. However, SPY is already short-term overbought... READ MORE
Stocks have been largely range bound throughout 2010, but the positives still outweigh the negatives overall. Chart 7 shows the **Dow SPDR (DIA)** starting the year just below 105 in January and finishing just below 105 this week. While it appears that DIA has nothing to show for eight months... READ MORE
It has been quite a roller coaster the last two months. The S&P 500 (red) surged in July, fell sharply in August and surged over the last few days. While the S&P 500 went on its roller coaster ride, the Shanghai Composite (black) surged in July... READ MORE
Big swings continue to whipsaw the indicator summary. The S&P 500 first closed below 1100 on May 20th. Since then the index has crossed the 1100 level at least nine times as the index trades within a large consolidation. There have been four swings of at least 8%... READ MORE
There is not much change on the daily chart. SPY held above its July low and found support near the May-June lows. With a channel breakout, the ETF forged a reaction low and the inverse head-and-shoulders becomes a possibility. Neckline resistance resides around 113 and this is the next big... READ MORE
Stocks around the world surged on Wednesday with many stock indices breaking out of their August downtrends. In the US, small-caps led the way higher with the Russell 2000 surging 3.81%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 were both up around 3%. All sectors were up with consumer... READ MORE
The S&P Sector Market Carpet shows a sea of green on Monday. All sectors were up sharply with consumer discretionary (+1.7) and technology (+1.6) showing the biggest average gains. Keep in mind that these numbers represent the average gain or loss for all stocks in the... READ MORE
The overall trend for most short-term indicators remains down and important resistance levels were established with Monday's decline. As with the major index ETFs, I will be watching the Friday-Monday highs for a breakout and trend reversal. The charts below show the Nasdaq AD Volume Line and NYSE... READ MORE
The AD Line and cumulative Net New Highs line shows relative weakness in Nasdaq stocks. From the breadth indicators page at Stockcharts.com, the chart below shows these two Nasdaq indicators moving sharply lower the last three weeks. The cumulative Net New Highs lines for the NYSE and Amex are... READ MORE
After big gains on Friday, stocks gave it back with big losses on Monday. A shallow pullback on modest breadth would have been positive, but yesterday's decline did not fit that bill. All nine sectors were lower, declines out numbered advances 4 to 1 and declining volume swamped... READ MORE
With the close at 10040 on Tuesday, the Dow retraced around 61.8% of its prior advance (Jul-Aug). This Fibonacci retracement sometimes marks a reversal zone. The Dow managed to recover after dip below 10000 on Friday and close above 10100. Resistance might not be far off through. The 50-day... READ MORE
After a rather volatile first hour on Friday, stocks found their footing and moved steadily higher throughout the day. Friday's action produced a few positives as we move into an important week. First, stocks managed to overcome early weakness. SPY moved below 104.5 in the first 40... READ MORE
Stocks markets around the world have been moving lower the last few weeks, but there are some pockets of strength to be found in Asia. As this snippet from the CandleGlance International iShares page shows, the Malaysia iShares (EWM) shows relative strength as it trades near its highs for the... READ MORE
The indicator summary moved further into the red as the Bullish Percent Indices turned bearish and the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) broke above its mid July high. The NYSE AD Line and NYSE Net New Highs are the only two indicators keeping this summary from total negativity.... READ MORE
Stocks started the day on firm footing after jobless claims were better-than-expected. However, the morning pop did not last long as SPY moved into negative territory by 11AM. Selling pressure continued throughout the day and the index closed near its lows. Stocks failed to rally on "good" news... READ MORE
Stocks started the day week, but recovered and closed near the highs for the day. The Dow SPDR (DIA) firmed near its mid July low, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) formed a bullish engulfing near its 62% retracement and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) bounced off its early July low.... READ MORE
A look at the Market Indices Carpet in market cap mode shows Apple (AAPL) taking up the most real estate with the largest rectangle. This means Apple carries the most weight in the index. Click the "Nasdaq 100" header to focus on the Nasdaq 100. Click the market... READ MORE
With a gap down and sharp decline, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed below 106 for the first time since early July. Selling pressure has been quite intense since August 9. SPY has closed down 9 of the last 11 days (red candlesticks) with three sizable down gaps... READ MORE
Stocks were down sharply in afternoon trading on Tuesday, but the Utilities (SPDR) was bucking the trend with a small gain. As this screen grab from the Market Summary page shows, XLU was the only sector in positive territory. Looks like utilities like low interest rates. Click this image for... READ MORE
Despite excessively bearish sentiment, the technical conditions in the stock market are clearly bearish for the short-term and medium-term. Sentiment is hard to quantify, but I get the feeling that sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish as we head into the September-October period. Consider the following. First, the NY Times reports that... READ MORE
Year-to-date sector performance shows five up and four down. In a rather strange twist, the consumer discretionary and industrial sectors are up, but the technology and finance sectors are down. Performance for the S&P 500 reflects the net result for the nine sectors (down 4.28%). Click this... READ MORE
The August trend remains down for the major index ETFs, but techs are starting to show relative strength with QQQQ edging higher on Friday. Despite some signs of firmness, we have yet to see any signs of significant strength that would warrant a bullish stance. The first chart shows the... READ MORE
The Point & Figure chart for QQQQ shows clear support and resistance lines for 2010. The ETF advanced for 9-10 months with a long column of X's in 2009 and then embarked on a consolidation in 2010. Notice that the X's started in March 2009 and... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gapped up on Tuesday and then filled that gap with a long red candlestick on Thursday. The inability to hold the gap is clearly negative. Also notice that volume increased as the ETF declined last week and this week. Click this image for... READ MORE
The indicator summary would be much more negative were it not for strength in the NYSE breadth statistics. NYSE Net New Highs remain positive and the AD Line has yet to break down. Another decline next week would likely push these two indicators into bear mode. Another decline next week... READ MORE
SPY gapped up on Tuesday and then filled that gap with a long red candlestick on Thursday. Some traders apply a three day rule to gaps. A gap that holds three days is valid. One that fails within three days is not. Tuesday's gap has been invalidated. In... READ MORE
It is one of those times when I can make pretty good arguments for both the bullish and bearish case - short-term and medium-term. This means we could be in for some choppy trading the next few days, weeks or even months. On the bullish side, sentiment seems to be... READ MORE
Half of the 10 most active NYSE stocks on Wednesday came from the finance sector. The Free Charts page at Stockcharts.com shows the 10 most active for the Nasdaq and NYSE. Even though the market was mixed today, nine were up and only one was down. All five financials... READ MORE