Are rising rates bullish or bearish for the stock market? Those answering bearish may want to consider the chart below. Over the last five years, there appears to be a positive correlation between the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) and the S&P 500. Both rise and fall together.... READ MORE
The 12-month SMA provides a pretty good clue on the overall direction for the US Dollar Index ($USD). There have been six crosses since 2002. Downside breaks captured long downtrends in 2002-2004 and 2006-2007. The upside breaks produced relatively short rallies that lasted almost a year. The... READ MORE
With the advance over the last 13 months, the Energy SPDR (XLE) and the Utilities SPDR (XLU) retraced less than 50% of the prior declines. Excluding the Financials SPDR (XLF), these retracements were the shallowest of the eight sector SPDRs, which makes these two chart laggards over the last few... READ MORE
The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) is the only one of the nine sector SPDRs challenging its 2007 high. The other 8 sector SPDRs are not even close. While XLP may be lagging in percentage terms, its advance over the last 13 months is the strongest in chart terms because the... READ MORE
With the massive rally over the last 13 months, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) hit levels note seen since Lehman brothers dominated the news. IWM was trading in the 63-75 range just before the Lehman bankruptcy and is nearing 70. This area could mark resistance. Click this image for... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) are trading near the upper trendline of a rising price channel that extends back to August. I drew the lower trendlines first, created a second parallel trendline and then moved it up to match the reaction highs. After... READ MORE
Weakness in the Dollar over the last few days spurred buying in gold and oil. The chart below shows the Gold ETF (GLD), US Oil Fund ETF (USO) and DB Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) over the last seven days. Gold took off first with a move on March 26th. Oil... READ MORE
I will be on vacation the first two weeks of April. The next posting to Art's Charts will be on Monday, April 19th. See you then - refreshed and rejuvenated!... READ MORE
SPY hit 117 eleven days ago and then stalled the last 10 days. Daily ranges were relatively wide from March 19th until March 26th (six days). The daily range narrowed this week with three indecisive candlesticks. This is hardly surprising considering the four day trading week, the Good Friday employment... READ MORE
After surging above 30 in early March, Juniper slowed to a crawl the last six days. Notice that Bollinger Bands (10,2) are contracting and the Standard Deviation is at its lowest point since early February, which is when the surge started. Click this image for details... READ MORE
Yesterday I showed a rising price channel extending from August and SPY was consolidating near the upper trendline. No change on that front as SPY continued its stall with another relatively narrow range day. Monday's high-low range was the narrowest in seven days (NR7). This is the... READ MORE
A look at the predefined scans page shows new 52-week highs outpacing new 52-week lows by a wide margin. In fact, new lows are quite minimal, which is hardly surprising considering the current rally is some 55 weeks old. The Aerospace group is well represented with Boeing (BA)... READ MORE
I will start with the chart shown in yesterday's Market Message. There is no new price action so the analysis has not changed. SPY hit the upper trendline of a rising price channel and stalled over the last two weeks. Stalling is not the same as weakness though.... READ MORE
It's been a long time coming, but the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) finally broke above 3100 resistance. The index has been lagging the S&P 500 the last six weeks as it traded flat. Today's break above 3100 takes the index to its highest level since... READ MORE
There is really no change on the daily chart. SPY remains in a medium-term uptrend with a higher low in February and higher high in March. The ETF is also in a short-term uptrend with a sharp advance from the February low. Since moving above 116 eight days... READ MORE
Shooting star candlesticks are popping up after a couple of volatile days. A CandleGlance view of Thursday's most active list shows shooting stars in the four most active stocks. GE and S formed shooting stars on Wednesday. C and BAC formed shooting stars on Thursday. Click here for... READ MORE
There is no change in the Stock Market Summary this week. All indicators are in bull mode, but there were some signs of less strength this week. The NYSE AD Volume Line did not exceed last week's high. Nasdaq Net Advances dipped to their lowest (negative) level since... READ MORE
Trading is turning rather volatile, which is just one more sign that a pullback or corrective period may begin soon. SPY first crossed above 116.5 seven days ago. Since this first cross, the ETF has dipped to around 115 and surged above 118. Yesterday's close at 116.... READ MORE
As with the end of February, SPY is currently stalling within an uptrend. The ETF moved above 116 six days ago and has traded on either side of 116.5 the last six days. The pink ovals show periods with a red candlestick, recovery candlestick and a subsequent gain. The... READ MORE
After a sharp decline with a gap in early March, Staples (SPLS) retraced 50-62% with a rising flag over the last 2-3 weeks. The stock broke the lower flag trendline with a sharp decline on Wednesday, but firmed at support around 23.5 on Thursday. Click this image... READ MORE
The Market Carpet shows the technology, healthcare and utilities sectors leading the market lower on Wednesday. The average decline for stocks in these sectors was 1.13%, 1.01% and .96%, respectively. Only financials were up with the average advance per stock running .13%. Click this image for details... READ MORE
There it is again. After one long red candlestick, SPY opened weak and closed strong. This intraday reversal was followed by further gains on Tuesday as the ETF moved above 117 for the first time since September 2008, which was when Lehman declared bankruptcy. The pink circle shows the prior... READ MORE
The John Murphy industry group PerfChart shows banks, biotechs, retail and semis leading the market higher since early February. Oil services and pharmaceuticals are lagging the S&P 500. Click this image for details... READ MORE
Even after a high-volume bearish engulfing on quadruple witching Friday and weak open on Monday, the bulls refused to give up the trend and pushed stocks higher immediately after the open. One day does not a trend change make. Selling pressure has been very limited since the early February... READ MORE
From the Free Charts page, the most active list for the NYSE shows strength in three banks (C, BAC, WFC). The most active Nasdaq list shows strength in two semis (INTC, AMAT). The CandleGlance link at the bottom of these tables shows all 10 with small candlestick charts. Click this... READ MORE
Stocks fell on Friday with the highest volume since early February, which was the scene of the last reversal. High volume sometimes marks a turning point. Stockcharts.com provides volume figures for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq and NYSE. The first three are the most... READ MORE
The Perfchart below shows the performance trends for 10 currency ETFs in 2010. The North American and commodity currencies are strong, while the European currencies are weak. First, notice that the DB Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP), Mexican Peso ETF (FXM) and the Canadian Dollar ETF (FXC) are up. Strength in... READ MORE
The Sector Market Carpet shows gains across eight of the nine sectors over the last four days. The energy sector is the only one not sporting a gain this week. Notice that the "bottom 5" performing stocks come from this sector as well. The finance is the strong... READ MORE
There is no change in the Stock Market Summary this week. All indicators are in bull mode with no signs of weakness within the market. After a sharp advance the last three weeks, the major index ETFs are short-term overbought and ripe for a pullback or consolidation. RSI for... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finally broke its string of advances with a small decline on Thursday. And I do mean small. DIA, QQQQ and IWM were up fractionally on the day. The sectors were mixed with five down and four up. Net Advances and Net Advancing Volume... READ MORE
For the second time in three weeks, IBM made the bearish engulfing scan and confirmed resistance at 129. The stock first hit resistance here in early March. The bearish engulfing has yet to be confirmed as the stock stays range bound the last five days. Watch 127 down and 129... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continued higher with a close above 117. Even though the ETF closed up on the day, the candlestick was indecisive with a small body and relatively equal upper/lower shadows. Since the breakout at 108, I count six indecisive candlesticks. It is clear... READ MORE
Materials and Energy related ETFs have been lagging the broader market because many remain below their January highs. That may be changing. The chart below shows the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) surging towards its January high with a move over the last two days. Click this image for details... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) made it a lucky 13 with another advance on Tuesday. There are, hundreds, if not thousands, of indicators and drawing techniques available to the technical analyst. Chances are that one of these indicators or drawing techniques will pick the exact top. Our job... READ MORE
Even though the Fed is unlikely to raise rates today, the bond market is already doing some of the Fed's work. The 3-month T-Bill Rate ($IRX) bottomed at the end of November and surged over the last two months. Despite this big move, $IRX is still... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) put another notch on its belt today with the 12th straight gain. As far as I can tell, September 1995 was the last such occurrence, after which SPY moved into a seven week trading range. I posted a chart of September 1995 in... READ MORE
Pulte Homes (PHM) is hitting resistance from broken support and the 62% retracement around 11.8. The stock hit this resistance zone twice in February and formed a lower high in March. Also notice that PHM is underperforming the S&P 500 over the last few weeks. Click this... READ MORE
With Friday's advance, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is now up 11 days straight and 20 of the last 25 days. It is an almost historic run. The ETF was up 12 days straight on September 13th, 1995. After the September 1995 run, the ETF went... READ MORE
NYSE and Nasdaq breadth continues to expand and back up the current rally. From the breadth charts page at Stockcharts.com, we can see the NYSE AD Line ($NYAD) and Nasdaq AD Line ($NAAD) moving sharply higher the last five weeks. Also notice that the cumulative Net New Highs lines... READ MORE
All stock market indicators are in bull mode. Before moving to the details, note that two indicators have been removed. The McClellan Oscillators were removed because they are redundant breadth indicators. The AD Lines represent a purer picture of the advance-decline metrics. The intermarket indicator has been removed because... READ MORE