Comerica (CMA), Ebay (EBAY) and Joy Global (JOYG). Comerica (CMA) fails resistance test. After breaking support with a sharp decline in October, CMA rebounded and never came close to its October high. Broken support around 29.5 turned into resistance and the stock formed a bearish engulfing pattern on Thursday.... READ MORE
Gilead (GILD), Kroger (KR) and NY Times (NYT) Gilead (GILD) forms a bull flag. After a big surge on good volume in early November, GILD consolidated with a falling flag over the last few weeks. There was a bullish reversal day last Monday, but no follow through with a breakout.... READ MORE
Although the energy and the finance sectors are not related, both are clearly the weakest of the nine sector SPDRs over the last two months. The Financials SPDR (XLF) is more important to the overall market. You know the drill. While SPY moved to a new reaction high in November,... READ MORE
There is a difference between actual weakness and flat trading, especially within a bigger uptrend. I think we can all agree that SPY has been trending higher since early July, perhaps even since mid March. The ETF first crossed above 111 on November 16th and closed just below 111 on... READ MORE
What makes me think under-invested portfolio managers could keep the market buoyant into yearend? The following quote comes from Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James: Net long positions at professional money management firms remain in the 50-60% range, which is well below the 70-75% level reached at the... READ MORE
Seven of the nine sector SPDRs recorded new 52-week highs in November or December. Among those, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) broke resistance from its 2009 highs with a surge above 31 this month. The ETF is short-term overbought after a 10% advance the last six weeks, but the long-term trend... READ MORE
Despite closing up on the day, I was not impressed with Friday's price action. A surprisingly small decline (-11K) in non-farm payrolls prompted the bulls into action as SPY opened around 111.84. These gains were fleeting as SPY declined to 110.04 in late morning. Even though... READ MORE
-Dollar surges as bonds and gold plunge -The Dollar is on the verge of a breakout and trend reversal -Gold moves into corrective mode -Extended channel defines downtrend in oil -Bonds remain in overall uptrend despite last week's plunge -Inter-market charts updated Dollar********************************************************* The US Dollar Index ($USD)... READ MORE
The finance sector continues to underperform the overall market. While the S&P 500 and Dow are consolidating near 52-week highs, the Financials SPDR (XLF) remains well below its October high and shows relative weakness. The bottom indicator contains the price relative, which is the XLF:$SPX ratio. XLF... READ MORE
The US Treasury Yield Perfchart shows yields falling since early August. In particular, short-term rates (green line) have fallen sharply in the last three months. Treasuries rise when rates fall so these declines suggest money moving into Treasuries. Click this chart for details... READ MORE
-MT Evidence remains bullish -Net New Highs are fewer, but still positive -Nasdaq AD Line shows weakness in small techs -AD Volume Lines remain below October highs -Consumer discretionary Bullish% Index declines sharply -Volatility remains low -DIA and SPY consolidate near highs -Momentum indicators still bullish overall -Finance sector continues... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded on either side of unchanged most of the day and then got hit with some late selling pressure in the final 20 minutes. Market participants were probably squaring positions ahead of Friday's employment report, which often produces a sizable gap... READ MORE
The chart below shows a Renko chart for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Like Point & Figure, these charts focus on price action, independent of time. Notice that the first half of the chart extends from late October 2008 to early March 2009. The second half extends from... READ MORE
Despite three up gaps in the last three weeks and a volatile range on the 60-minute chart, SPY remains stuck in a trading range with contracting volatility on the daily chart. The chart shows Bollinger Bands (10,2) with Bollinger Band Width in the indicator window. Bollinger Band Width measures... READ MORE
After underperforming the S&P 500 in October, the Amex Airline Index ($XAL) reversed course to become a leader in November. This leadership role picked up steam the last three days as XAL broke above consolidation resistance. The indicator window shows the price relative ($XAL:$SPX ratio). $XAL outperforms... READ MORE
SPY gapped up and held its gains to close above 111 for the fifth time in eleven days. There is no change in the medium-term picture. SPY remains within a rising price channel overall with key support around 102. The ETF surged above 110 the second week of October and... READ MORE
The US and European markets bottomed in early July and have been moving higher the last five months. These indices are up 18-23% since early July. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is also up, but less than 5% and lagging the US and Europe. In stark contrast to these gainers, the... READ MORE
-SPY shows resilience -QQQQ forms falling flag -IWM and the January effect -Key sectors with short-term downtrends -Stocks with bullish setups: CAKE, CHK, CSCO, DELL, INTC, NVDA and OMC -Click here for the video page... READ MORE
A number of stocks, ETFs and indices gapped down on Friday and then firmed on Monday. Friday's gap and decline endorsed the bearish case, but firmness on Monday shows indecision. The ability to fill Friday's gap would be considered bullish. Keep this in mind when reviewing... READ MORE
On the CandleGlance charts, the four offensive sectors sport falling consolidations over the last 2-3 weeks. After recording higher highs in mid November, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Technology SPDR (XLK) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) pulled back with falling flags over the last two weeks. Technically, we could call the... READ MORE
While the rising flag (pink) and support break at 58 were bearish for IWM, we must always be prepared for the unexpected when dealing with the stock market. What would be the precursor if IWM were to move above 62 by yearend? First, we must not forget the January effect,... READ MORE
There is no denying the uptrend in QQQQ over the last few months. Even with the pullback over the last two weeks, QQQQ is within spitting distance of its 2009 high. Moreover, this pullback looks like a falling flag, which is a bullish consolidation. A break above flag resistance would... READ MORE
Despite negative ramblings with Dubai and black Friday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is showing resilience on the daily chart. SPY gapped down on Friday, but closed well above its open to form a white candlestick. Even though Monday's candlestick shows an intraday dip to 108.... READ MORE
It has been a big year for gold, but an even bigger year for silver. As the Perfchart shows, $SILVER underperforms $GOLD on the way down and outperforms on the way up. Silver was down more than gold in April and July, but up more than gold in June and... READ MORE
Friday's decline reversed the short-term uptrend, but the medium-term trend remains up. On the daily chart, SPY has been zigzagging higher the last 3-4 months. After moving above its October high in mid November, SPY stalled around 110 with choppy trading for two weeks. Friday's gap... READ MORE
-Bonds show relative strength with a 5-month closing high -Another new low in short-term rates weighs on the Dollar -Gold remains overextended, but still strong -The 5-week downtrend in oil looks like a falling flag -Bonds surge with biggest 2-week surge since November 2008 - Click here for the intermarket... READ MORE
-SPY stalls near resistance -IWM traces out a symmetrical triangle -Medium-term Evidence Remains Bullish -Defensive sectors perking up -Interest rates and the Dow -Bond ETF holds resistance breakout -Click here for the video page... READ MORE
The London FTSE ($FTSE) dropped over 3% on the prospects of a sovereign default from Dubai. Even with this sharp decline, the medium-term trend is up as the index recorded a new reaction high just two weeks ago. Major support is set in the 4950-5000 area. A break below this... READ MORE
The medium-term trend remains up for SPY, but the going is getting tough around 110. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) first moved above 110 on November 11th, eleven trading days ago. Since first moving above 110, the ETF has seesawed above and below this level at least four... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is stalling with a symmetrical triangle over the last two weeks. Because the prior move was up, there is still a bullish bias overall. However, the ensuing break will determine the next directional signal for IWM. A move above this week's high would... READ MORE
Note that current evidence does not include Friday's trading. The S&P 500 is down around 3% in pre-market trading. This move could be an overreaction in thin trading or more. I will review the table and indicators on Monday as well. Despite some bearish indicators and... READ MORE
-Nasdaq AD Line forms a bearish flag -Nasdaq AD Volume Line forms lower high in November (bearish divergence) -Nasdaq Net New Highs remain positive, but there were fewer in November -NYSE AD Line remains in bull mode and above support -NYSE AD Volume Line forms lower high in November (bearish... READ MORE
The next two Candleglance groups show the four offensive sectors (technology, finance, industrials, technology) and the three defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities, consumer staples). Three of the four offensive sectors moved to new reaction highs in mid November. Only the Financials SPDR failed to exceed its October high and show relative... READ MORE
Over the last ten years, there is generally a positive correlation between long-term interest rates and the Dow Industrials. The 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) and the Dow fell from 2000 to 2003, rose from 2003 to 2007, fell from 2007 to 2008 and rose in 2009. Falling interest rates were... READ MORE
The 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) continues to exhibit strength with a wedge breakout. Notice that the ETF broke resistance with a gap above 94. More importantly, notice that this gap is holding and TLT moved higher the last two days. With higher lows in July and November, the bigger... READ MORE
Despite strength in stocks and weakness in the Dollar, the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) is down for the month of November. It is not much, but it is still surprising and merits attention. Strength in stocks points to strength in the economy, which should increase demand for oil. Commodities... READ MORE
Based on the November 16th close, Fluor (FLR) was featured after the stock bounced on good volume. Even though FLR was still in a downtrend, it was at retracement support and the bounce occurred on good volume. This bounce has now failed. First, follow through was weak the next two... READ MORE
I am showing three charts for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) today. The first shows daily candlesticks with MACD(5,35,5). SPY is trending up with higher highs and higher lows, but MACD(5,35,5) is trending down with lower highs and lower lows. Even though... READ MORE
The sector PerfChart from 30-Oct to 23-Nov shows energy as the weakest of the nine sectors. The shaded S&P 500 tab means performance is measured relative to the S&P 500. The percentage changes are not absolute, but rather over or under performance relative to the S&... READ MORE
-SPY gaps off support -MACD(5,35,5) crossover signal for SPY -T-Bill rate near zero again -Financials SPDR lags overall market -3 key banks to watch (GS,JPM,STT) -Gold gets frothy on the daily chart -US Dollar Index remains in downtrend -Bullish flag in oil extends -30-year Treasury... READ MORE