The Nasdaq moved higher the last two days, but Net Advances were barely positive on Wednesday and negative on Thursday. Net Advancing Volume was barely positive on both days. Even though the gains in the Nasdaq were small, weak breadth reflected narrow participation that could undermine the advance. On the... READ MORE
For the fourth time in five weeks, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) held support with a gap up. Here's what we know. The medium-term trend is up, SPY is consolidating, support is holding and seasonality favors the bulls (especially from December 21st). Keep seasonality in... READ MORE
After a gap and sharp decline in October, Citrix (CTXS) found support near its resistance breakout (~37). Bounces in early November and early December confirm support in the 37-38 area. With a triangle consolidation taking shape the last six weeks, the direction of the breakout holds the key to... READ MORE
The major index ETFs remain in medium-term uptrends and short-term trading ranges. After a 3-4 day pullback, SPY firmed near the bottom of its four week trading range. The whole world is watching range support for a break that would be negative. Technically, a support break here... READ MORE
AOL Inc (AOL/WI) returned to the big board after a nine year hiatus. The stock was already trading "when issued" (WI) before today. AOL/WI started the day down, traded flat around 23 throughout the day and then surged with huge volume at the end of the... READ MORE
SPY moved back below 110 to fill the third gap, but this is not enough to affect the medium-term uptrend. After surging to a new reaction high in mid November, the ETF has been locked in a four point trading range since November 10th. This range extends from 108... READ MORE
For the second time in four weeks, Marriott (MAR) formed a bearish harami. The first harami marked a reaction high just below 28. This second harami formed around 27 for a possible lower high. Also notice that the trendline extending down from the October high marks resistance there. You can... READ MORE
Comerica (CMA), Ebay (EBAY) and Joy Global (JOYG). Comerica (CMA) fails resistance test. After breaking support with a sharp decline in October, CMA rebounded and never came close to its October high. Broken support around 29.5 turned into resistance and the stock formed a bearish engulfing pattern on Thursday.... READ MORE
Gilead (GILD), Kroger (KR) and NY Times (NYT) Gilead (GILD) forms a bull flag. After a big surge on good volume in early November, GILD consolidated with a falling flag over the last few weeks. There was a bullish reversal day last Monday, but no follow through with a breakout.... READ MORE
Although the energy and the finance sectors are not related, both are clearly the weakest of the nine sector SPDRs over the last two months. The Financials SPDR (XLF) is more important to the overall market. You know the drill. While SPY moved to a new reaction high in November,... READ MORE
There is a difference between actual weakness and flat trading, especially within a bigger uptrend. I think we can all agree that SPY has been trending higher since early July, perhaps even since mid March. The ETF first crossed above 111 on November 16th and closed just below 111 on... READ MORE
What makes me think under-invested portfolio managers could keep the market buoyant into yearend? The following quote comes from Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James: Net long positions at professional money management firms remain in the 50-60% range, which is well below the 70-75% level... READ MORE
Seven of the nine sector SPDRs recorded new 52-week highs in November or December. Among those, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) broke resistance from its 2009 highs with a surge above 31 this month. The ETF is short-term overbought after a 10% advance the last six weeks, but the... READ MORE
Despite closing up on the day, I was not impressed with Friday's price action. A surprisingly small decline (-11K) in non-farm payrolls prompted the bulls into action as SPY opened around 111.84. These gains were fleeting as SPY declined to 110.04 in late morning. Even... READ MORE
-Dollar surges as bonds and gold plunge -The Dollar is on the verge of a breakout and trend reversal -Gold moves into corrective mode -Extended channel defines downtrend in oil -Bonds remain in overall uptrend despite last week's plunge -Inter-market charts updated Dollar********************************************************* The US Dollar Index... READ MORE
The finance sector continues to underperform the overall market. While the S&P 500 and Dow are consolidating near 52-week highs, the Financials SPDR (XLF) remains well below its October high and shows relative weakness. The bottom indicator contains the price relative, which is the XLF:$SPX ratio.... READ MORE
The US Treasury Yield Perfchart shows yields falling since early August. In particular, short-term rates (green line) have fallen sharply in the last three months. Treasuries rise when rates fall so these declines suggest money moving into Treasuries. Click this chart for details... READ MORE
-MT Evidence remains bullish -Net New Highs are fewer, but still positive -Nasdaq AD Line shows weakness in small techs -AD Volume Lines remain below October highs -Consumer discretionary Bullish% Index declines sharply -Volatility remains low -DIA and SPY consolidate near highs -Momentum indicators still bullish overall -Finance sector continues... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded on either side of unchanged most of the day and then got hit with some late selling pressure in the final 20 minutes. Market participants were probably squaring positions ahead of Friday's employment report, which often produces a sizable gap... READ MORE
The chart below shows a Renko chart for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Like Point & Figure, these charts focus on price action, independent of time. Notice that the first half of the chart extends from late October 2008 to early March 2009. The second half extends from... READ MORE
Despite three up gaps in the last three weeks and a volatile range on the 60-minute chart, SPY remains stuck in a trading range with contracting volatility on the daily chart. The chart shows Bollinger Bands (10,2) with Bollinger Band Width in the indicator window. Bollinger Band Width... READ MORE
After underperforming the S&P 500 in October, the Amex Airline Index ($XAL) reversed course to become a leader in November. This leadership role picked up steam the last three days as XAL broke above consolidation resistance. The indicator window shows the price relative ($XAL:$SPX ratio). $XAL outperforms... READ MORE
SPY gapped up and held its gains to close above 111 for the fifth time in eleven days. There is no change in the medium-term picture. SPY remains within a rising price channel overall with key support around 102. The ETF surged above 110 the second week of October... READ MORE
The US and European markets bottomed in early July and have been moving higher the last five months. These indices are up 18-23% since early July. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is also up, but less than 5% and lagging the US and Europe. In stark contrast to these gainers,... READ MORE
-SPY shows resilience -QQQQ forms falling flag -IWM and the January effect -Key sectors with short-term downtrends -Stocks with bullish setups: CAKE, CHK, CSCO, DELL, INTC, NVDA and OMC -Click here for the video page... READ MORE
A number of stocks, ETFs and indices gapped down on Friday and then firmed on Monday. Friday's gap and decline endorsed the bearish case, but firmness on Monday shows indecision. The ability to fill Friday's gap would be considered bullish. Keep this in mind when reviewing... READ MORE
On the CandleGlance charts, the four offensive sectors sport falling consolidations over the last 2-3 weeks. After recording higher highs in mid November, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Technology SPDR (XLK) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) pulled back with falling flags over the last two weeks. Technically, we could call... READ MORE
While the rising flag (pink) and support break at 58 were bearish for IWM, we must always be prepared for the unexpected when dealing with the stock market. What would be the precursor if IWM were to move above 62 by yearend? First, we must not forget the January effect,... READ MORE
There is no denying the uptrend in QQQQ over the last few months. Even with the pullback over the last two weeks, QQQQ is within spitting distance of its 2009 high. Moreover, this pullback looks like a falling flag, which is a bullish consolidation. A break above flag resistance would... READ MORE
Despite negative ramblings with Dubai and black Friday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is showing resilience on the daily chart. SPY gapped down on Friday, but closed well above its open to form a white candlestick. Even though Monday's candlestick shows an intraday dip to 108.... READ MORE
It has been a big year for gold, but an even bigger year for silver. As the Perfchart shows, $SILVER underperforms $GOLD on the way down and outperforms on the way up. Silver was down more than gold in April and July, but up more than gold in June and... READ MORE
Friday's decline reversed the short-term uptrend, but the medium-term trend remains up. On the daily chart, SPY has been zigzagging higher the last 3-4 months. After moving above its October high in mid November, SPY stalled around 110 with choppy trading for two weeks. Friday&... READ MORE
-Bonds show relative strength with a 5-month closing high -Another new low in short-term rates weighs on the Dollar -Gold remains overextended, but still strong -The 5-week downtrend in oil looks like a falling flag -Bonds surge with biggest 2-week surge since November 2008 - Click here... READ MORE
-SPY stalls near resistance -IWM traces out a symmetrical triangle -Medium-term Evidence Remains Bullish -Defensive sectors perking up -Interest rates and the Dow -Bond ETF holds resistance breakout -Click here for the video page... READ MORE
The London FTSE ($FTSE) dropped over 3% on the prospects of a sovereign default from Dubai. Even with this sharp decline, the medium-term trend is up as the index recorded a new reaction high just two weeks ago. Major support is set in the 4950-5000 area. A break... READ MORE
The medium-term trend remains up for SPY, but the going is getting tough around 110. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) first moved above 110 on November 11th, eleven trading days ago. Since first moving above 110, the ETF has seesawed above and below this level at least... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is stalling with a symmetrical triangle over the last two weeks. Because the prior move was up, there is still a bullish bias overall. However, the ensuing break will determine the next directional signal for IWM. A move above this week's high would... READ MORE
Note that current evidence does not include Friday's trading. The S&P 500 is down around 3% in pre-market trading. This move could be an overreaction in thin trading or more. I will review the table and indicators on Monday as well. Despite some bearish indicators... READ MORE
-Nasdaq AD Line forms a bearish flag -Nasdaq AD Volume Line forms lower high in November (bearish divergence) -Nasdaq Net New Highs remain positive, but there were fewer in November -NYSE AD Line remains in bull mode and above support -NYSE AD Volume Line forms lower high in November (bearish... READ MORE
The next two Candleglance groups show the four offensive sectors (technology, finance, industrials, technology) and the three defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities, consumer staples). Three of the four offensive sectors moved to new reaction highs in mid November. Only the Financials SPDR failed to exceed its October high and show relative... READ MORE