* SPY Forges a Gap-Gap Reversal * What Makes this Wedge Break Significant? * TLT Turns up from Oversold Levels. * XLC is the First to Break. ... The mood of the market appears to be changing as stocks weaken and bonds strengthen. It looks like short-term trends are trying to reverse. The first chart... READ MORE
Despite a 15% surge the prior 17 days, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) remains below its flattening 200-day SMA and the ETF formed a rare evening star candlestick pattern over the last three days. First and foremost, I think the long-term trend is down for QQQ. The ETF recorded a... READ MORE
* Volume is not What is Used to Be. * 2008: Bear Bounce and Bullish Setup. * 2010: Big Bounce and Big Pullback. * 2011: Retracement and Bull Flag. * 2014: October Volatility. * 2015: Volatility and BREXIT Vote. * 2019: What Now? * On Trend on StockChartsTV. ... Volume is not What is Used to Be ... I went... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is in the midst of a big run that lifted most boats, especially financial stocks. Even though these stocks are leading with the biggest gains over the last three weeks, most big financials are still in downtrends overall and below their 200-day SMAs. Take Citigroup... READ MORE
* Finance Does the Heavy Lifting. * One out of Four is Not Enough. * New Highs Remain Subdued. * Majority of Stocks in Long-term Downtrends. * The Lone Breadth Thrust. * Bear Market Environments. * Strength Outside of U.S. Stocks. * Separating the Contenders from the Pretenders. * Growth Stocks with Strong Charts. ... Finance Does the Heavy... READ MORE
AmerisourceBergen (ABC) started the day strong and rose with the broader market, but turned south in the afternoon and formed a bearish engulfing. This bearish candlestick reversal looks especially ominous because it formed near the minimum retracement and with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) overbought. The chart shows ABC breaking... READ MORE
* Stocks Bid to Extend Higher. * SPY Enters the Prior Consolidation. * Big Sectors Join the Breakout Parade. ... The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and several sector SPDRs broke out of short-term consolidations in a bid to extend the upswing that began on December 26th. While I remain in the bearish... READ MORE
Most stocks have struggled since November, but Palo Alto Networks managed to reverse at a key area and break above a resistance zone. The chart below shows PANW with weekly bars over the last 3 years. The stock broke to new highs in February 2018 and more than doubled from... READ MORE
Stocks surged over the last 12 days with the S&P 500 gaining over 10% and moving above its late December high. Coca-Cola (KO) was leading the market with a new high in November, but did not partake in the broad market rally here in January. SPY is up... READ MORE
I highlighted the confluence of data points that argue for resistance in the S&P 500 last week and would like to review this as we start a new week. Note that I only focus on resistance when the bigger trend is down. Why? Because resistance levels have a... READ MORE
* Big Markets in Big Downtrends. * Bullish Breadth Surge. * Counting New Highs on One Hand. * Vast Majority of Stocks in Downtrends. * A Return to the Breakdown. * A Potential Reversal Area. * Finding Pockets of Strength. * India Starts to Drag. * Indonesia Extends on Breakout. * New Zealand Holds above October Lows. * Singapore Dollar Surges.... READ MORE
* Putting the Bounce into Perspective. * 23-day Performance Overshadows 9-day Surge. * 40 Years of the Zweig Breadth Thrust. * AD Percent for $SPX, $MID and $SML. * A Weight of the Evidence Approach. ... Putting the Bounce into Perspective ... As of Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 is up a whopping... READ MORE
Netflix was the first of the five FAANG stocks to peak in June 2018 and is now the first of the five to break its December high. Thus, Netflix is leading the FAANGs here in January because it is the only one with a higher high. Note that Netflix reports... READ MORE
The broad market environment remains rather negative overall with the S&P 500 well below its falling 200-day SMA and volatility increasing over the last few months. Note that the different environments were highlighted in ChartWatchers this weekend. After a sharp decline into Christmas, stocks rebounded over the last... READ MORE
The broad market environment is perhaps the single most important factor to consider when selecting a trading or investing strategy for stocks. As with the weather, the broad market environment is subject to change and we need to adapt to current conditions. We should take extra precautions when it is... READ MORE
* It is What it Is * Breadth Indicator Review * High-Low Percent Rebounds * Vast Majority in Long-term Downtrends * Volatility is Increasing, Not Decreasing * Absolute Performance vs Relative Performance * Risk-Off Environment * Suggestions for Art's Charts ChartList ... It is What it Is ... There is no forecast to start 2019 because the signals... READ MORE
With December complete, chartists can now examine monthly close-only charts for an assessment of the long-term trend and stock market risk. Spoiler: it is not a pretty picture. Before looking at the chart, let's review the concept behind Price Channels. Chartists can use Price Channels to mark the... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded last week and recovered part of their losses from the prior week. Long black candlesticks formed the week before Christmas and most sector SPDRs recovered with long white candlesticks the following week. A black candlestick forms when the close is below the open, while a white candlestick forms... READ MORE
AD Percent for the S&P 500 dipped below -90% on Monday and this was the sixth reading below -90% this year. AD Percent equals advances less declines divided by total issues. Thus, if 25 stocks advance (5%) and 475 stocks decline (95%), AD Percent equals -90% ((25 -... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 peaked at 1740 in mid August and fell below 1300 over the last 15 weeks. The index is now down 11 of the last 15 weeks and extremely oversold. Even though the long-term trend is clearly down, this extreme oversold condition could give way to a counter-trend... READ MORE
* A Clear Signal on the Monthly Chart. * Oversold is a Double-Edged Sword. * Getting to Washout Levels (High-Low Percent). * Quarterly Rate-of-Change Signals a Shift. * VIX has Yet to Spike. * Futuristic Food for Thought. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. ... A Clear Signal on the Monthly Chart ... Even though we... READ MORE
It was not long ago that the 30-yr T-Yield ($TYX) was breaking above a three year resistance line and the outlook for yields was bullish (bearish for bonds). Admittedly, I was in that camp. The tables have turned as the 30-yr Yield failed to hold the breakout and sliced below... READ MORE
* Setting the Stage. * Defining Trend and Condition. * Running the Scan. * Uptrends versus Downtrends. * Overbought versus Oversold. * Uptrend and Oversold. * Uptrend and Mildly Oversold. * Scanning for RSI Ranges. * Conclusions. ... Setting the Stage ... Instead of testing an actual system, this System Trader article will show scatter plots for S&P 500... READ MORE
... Today's show, On Trend, provides a review of 2018, which is the year of few winners (so far). With less than two weeks before yearend, I would not expect too much to change. The show starts with seven PerfCharts to focus on seven different groups around the globe.... READ MORE
IBM is one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year with an 18% decline year-to-date - and it could get worse. First and foremost, the long-term trend is down because the stock recorded a 52-week low in late October, the 50-day moving average is... READ MORE
As obvious as it seems, lower lows and lower highs are the order of the day in a downtrend. Thus, prices are expected to break prior lows and continue lower when the trend is down. Taking this downtrend concept one step further, one could also assume that support levels within... READ MORE
* Support Levels are Dubious in Downtrends. * Continuation Patterns after Breakdowns. * Mid-caps and Small-caps Lead Lower. * Bonds Catch Bid as Stocks Fall. * 10-yr Yield and Oil Fall Together. * Gold Ignores Dollar Strength. * Is it Really Worth It? * XLU Hits New High. * XLP Corrects within Uptrend. * XLV Consolidates after New High. * Notes... READ MORE
* An Attempt at a Candlestick Reversal. * Breadth Fails to Impress. * More Stocks Breaking 50-day EMA. * On Trend on StockCharts TV. ... An Attempted Candlestick Reversal ... The S&P 500 firmed over the last few days, but breadth remains weak overall. The first chart shows candlesticks over the last few months... READ MORE
A long-term downtrend, two gaps down and a move back below the falling 200-day could spell trouble for L Brands. The stock has been quite volatile since summer, but the overall trend remains down. LB hit a 52-week low in early September, the 50-day SMA (not shown) is below the... READ MORE
* Bearish Patterns in Big EW Sectors. * Internal Weakness Hits Consumer Staples. * Semiconductor ETFs Bounce after Breakdowns. * Intel Fails at 200-day as Broadcom Breaks Out. * Four more Wedge Breaks. * On Trend on Youtube. ... Bearish Patterns in Big EW Sectors ... While the sector SPDRs capture what is happening with large-cap stocks, the... READ MORE
Southwest Airlines (LUV) is in a long-term downtrend and the recent failure near the death cross points to further downside. First and foremost, the long-term trend is down because LUV hit a new 52-week low in late October and price is below the 200-day SMA. In addition, the 50-day SMA... READ MORE
* Setting the Stage. * Defining the Death Cross. * 9 of the Last 2 Bear Markets. * Comparing Different Crossover Signals. * SMAs versus EMAs. * SPY with Dividends vs $SPX Without. * The Moving Average Sweet Spot. * Conclusions (Adjusting Exposure). ... Setting the Stage ... The financial media is awash with reports on the "death cross&... READ MORE
* A Bull Market in Noise. * New Lows Expand. * Another Week and Another Big Swing.. * NDX Holds Up Better. * Stocks Holding the 200-day. * SKYY, HACK and IGV Trace Out Wedges. * Healthcare Remains the Leader. * REM, IHI and IHF Hold Up. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. ... A Bull Market... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is below its 200-day moving average and most country indexes are also below their 200-day moving averages. Two emerging countries, however, stand out in this crowd: Indonesia and the Philippines. The first chart shows the Indonesia iShares (EIDO) and the DJ Indonesia Index ($IDDOW) with... READ MORE
* Three Gaps in the Same Place for SPY. * What's Up with Bonds and Utes? * Strange Happenings on the Yield Curve. * Finance and Industrials are Still Laggards. * On Trend on Youtube. ... Internal Strength on Big Bounces ... Monday's surge was impressive when looking at the change from Friday&... READ MORE
Relative strength, an uptrend and a bullish continuation pattern point to higher prices for Cisco (CSCO). First and foremost, Cisco is in a long-term uptrend. The stock recorded a 52-week high in early October, the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA and price is above the 200-day. Second, Cisco... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is the most widely used benchmark for U.S. stocks and the 200-day SMA is the most widely used moving average. Together, chartists can use the S&P 500 and the 200-day SMA to determine the broad trend for the stock market. The S&... READ MORE
* Checking and Balancing the S&P 500. * Rodeo Range for the S&P 500. * Small and Mid Caps Range after Breakdown. * Confirmation and the Big Six Sectors. * Retail is Not Hot. * Credit Conditions Tightening. * Palladium Continues Strong. * Platinum Breaks Down. * Gold Fights Downtrend and Strong Dollar. * Notes from... READ MORE
* Setting Benchmark Lows and Highs. * Healthcare is the Clear Leader. * Ranking Sectors with CandleGlance Charts. * Other Performance Metrics for the 11 Sector SPDRs. * SPY Range and MDY Resistance. * XLF and XLI Break Out. * Forget Fed Speak and Watch the Action. * Stocks to Watch (ADI, COO, INTC, MDT, SYMC...). ... Setting Benchmark... READ MORE
Healthcare stocks are leading the market and many were featured in Tuesday's show, On Trend. See below for details. Today I am highlighting Varian Medical (VAR) because it seems to be in the early stages of an uptrend. Normally, I do not highlight stocks that trended lower for... READ MORE