* SPY Challenges Short-term Resistance. * Small-caps Continue to Act Well. * Retail Comes Alive. * Kohls, Nordstrom and Michael Kors. * Cyber Security, Networking and Software Show Leadership. * Copper Miners ETF Breaks Out within Consolidation. SPY Challenges Resistance... The S&P 500 is flirting with the 200-day simple moving average as it consolidates... READ MORE
The Frontier Markets ETF (FM) has been outperforming the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) since summer and held up much better than the US market in March-April. FM recently broke out of a consolidation and it looks like the bigger uptrend is continuing. The chart below shows FM with... READ MORE
The percentage of stocks above the 50-day EMA is a breadth indicator that measures internal performance. Chartists can compare this indicator across indexes to identify the leaders and laggards. The Nasdaq 100 is the weakest of the major indexes and weighing on the broader market. The chart below shows %Above... READ MORE
* Two Down, One To Go. * QQQ: Bruised, but not Quite Broken. * Small-caps Continue to Show Relative Strength. * Small-cap Consumer Discretionary and Industrials Lead. * Housing and Retail Lead CD. * Tech-related ETFs Remain Subdued. * Watching the Channel in Oil. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Trends depend on timeframes and... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is well below its January high and trading near its February low. DSW, in contrast, hit a 52-week high last week and is clearly leading the market. The chart shows DSW with a choppy advance from mid August to mid November and then a choppy... READ MORE
* A Narrowing Range for the S&P 500. * A Bearish Pennant or Higher Low? * Not Always the End of the World. * Three Industry Group ETFs to Watch (ITA, ITB, IAI). * Energy ETFs Continue Consolidation. * Stocks to Watch (APC, HAL, MSFT, INTC, ATVI). A Narrowing Range for the S&... READ MORE
* To Bounce or Not To Bounce. * %Above 200-day EMA at Inflection Point. * Fewer New Lows in March. * Seasonality is Quite Bullish in April. * A Big Triangle for the S&P 500. * Playing the Swings within the Triangle. * QQQ is Not Broken. * Small-caps are Showing Relative Strength. * Gold Falls back... READ MORE
* Introduction and Overview. * A Historical Look at the Ratio. * Put Volume Surges to Multi-year Levels. * The Eye-Ball Signals. * Putting Together a System. * Running the Numbers. * Conclusions. ...The Put-Call Ratio is getting a lot of attention lately so I took a stab at building a trading system around this indicator. Sentiment... READ MORE
The pickings are slim as the market corrects and may charts turn ugly. I am noticing some strength in big pharma with Merck (MRK) up in March and Pfizer (PFE) holding above the early February low (so far). The chart shows PFE with a zigzag uptrend since June. The stock... READ MORE
The S&P 500 was shaken with a plunge below its 200-day SMA on Friday and this gives chartists a reference point to compare with other charts. Personally, I do not think moving averages represent support or resistance levels. Moving averages provide price points that chartists can use to... READ MORE
* Universe, Market Regime and Ground Rules. * Know Your Indicators. * Sample Signals for IJR and QQQ. * Testing the Big Four. * Plotting Equity and Drawdowns. * Testing Four Leveraged ETFs. * Conclusions and Caveat Emptor! Introduction and Overview... Stocks fell sharply the last two weeks and RSI became oversold for most major index ETFs.... READ MORE
* Another Bearish Breadth Thrust. * High-Low Percent Indicators Remain Bullish. * %Above 200-day Indicators Dip below 50%. * Index Table Remains Bullish. * Sector Breadth Highlights. * Bottom Line: Still a Bull Market. Breadth Overview ... The following breadth assessment is based on three breadth indicators. First, the 10-day EMA of AD Percent is used to... READ MORE
* The 2018 Roller Coaster Continues. * High-Low Line Turns Down for XLY. * SPY Leads the Wedge Break Downs. * XLF, XLV, XLY and XLB Break Wedge Lines. * When Oversold is Not Such an Opportunity. * XLI Breaks Triangle Support. * Breakaway Gaps for XLK. * Gold Bounces off Support Zone. * Oil Holds Breakout. * Notes from... READ MORE
* QQQ Holds Gap for Three Days. * SPY Holds Wedge Break. * Charting the Fab Five. * MMM and Honeywell Join Dow Triangulation. QQQ Traps Traders on the Island ... QQQ formed an island reversal with Monday's gap down and held this gap for three days. Chartists sometimes apply time filters to... READ MORE
* Gold and the Dollar Hit Inflection Points. * Dollar Bumps Into Short-term Resistance. * Gold Miners Underperform Gold. * GDX Tests Low End of Range. Gold Channels Harden... For the third time in six weeks, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is surging above the 125 level and making a bid to reverse within a... READ MORE
The S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) held up better than the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) during last week's decline and small-caps are outperforming large-caps in 2018. The chart shows IJR moving above its late February high with a surge above the blue zone in mid-March.... READ MORE
* Broad Selling in Technology. * SPY Erases the Gap. * New Floors and Ceilings. * Defense Stocks Buck the Selling. * Six Stocks with Bullish Continuation Patterns. * Oil Consolidates within an Uptrend. * Oil and XES Still Positively Correlated. * XES Battles Retracement Zone. Broad Selling in Technology ... The technology sector led the way lower as... READ MORE
Dow component Disney (DIS) is feeling the heat today with a triangle break and move below the 200-day moving average. Disney has been one of the weaker stocks in the Dow Industrials over the last few years. The stock peaked way back in August 2015 and formed lower highs the... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials is in the midst of a narrowing consolidation and chartists should watch the March range for the next directional clue. The 2018 range extends from the January high (26,617) to the February low (23,360), which is 3257 points or around 13% of the current close.... READ MORE
* Pop and Drop for Two Key Sectors. * SPY Approaches First Test. * High-Low Percent Pops and Drops. * Sector High-Low Lines Still Rising. * Big Sectors Remain Mixed. * Gold Corrects within Correction. * Treasury Bonds Get Oversold Bounce. * Funding the Growing Deficit. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. The S&P... READ MORE
Centene (CNC), which is part of the healthcare sector, sports a steady uptrend over the past year and recently surged towards its 50-day SMA. First and foremost, the long-term trend is clearly up because the stock recorded a 52-week high in January, the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA... READ MORE
* Non-confirmations Continue to Nag. * Setting the Benchmark Highs. * RSP Sector Weights are Quite Different. * EW Consumer Discretionary and Industrials Lag. * XLF and XLY Trigger Triangle Breaks. * A Stock Picker's Market. Non-confirmations Continue to Nag... The Nasdaq 100 brothers, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100, were the only two major... READ MORE
Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (LH) is looking bullish as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns up and Chaikin Money Flow pops. On the price chart, the long-term trend is up because LH hit a new high in January, the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA and price... READ MORE
* Breadth Indicators Strengthen. * Nasdaq 100 Leads AD Percent Rebound. * $SPX High-Low% Signals End of Correction. * Large-caps Lead %Above 200-day EMA. * Broad Market Breadth Table. * Sector Breadth Table. * Links for Sector Breadth Charts. Breadth Indicators Strengthen... A couple of breadth indicators flipped from bearish to bullish with last week's... READ MORE
* VIX is a Teenager Again. * $NDX and $SML AD Lines Lead. * New Highs Still Dragging. * Small-caps, Large-caps, Tails and Dogs. * Six Leading Sectors (and Four Laggards). * A Pop and Drop for Gold. * Oil Forms Lower High. * The Incredibly Shrinking Stock Market. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. VIX... READ MORE
* Separating the Leaders from the Laggards. * Flying Flags for Commercial Metals and Nucor. * Broker-Dealer iShares Leads with New High. * Morgan Stanley and the 3 Discount Brokers. * Defense and Aerospace ETF Fully Recovers. * General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin. * Verisign, Bristol-Meyers and Fastenal. Finding the Strongest Stocks.... When dealing with stocks, we... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is pretty much unchanged over the last five trading days and the respective sector SPDRs are mixed. The story is a bit different for small-caps because the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) is up over 3% the last five days and the... READ MORE
* Turn of the Month Strategy. * Testing the Last and First Days of the Month. * Turn of the Month Results. * Plotting the Equity Curve. * Charting Recent Results. * Conclusions and Takeaways. The turn of the month shows a strong bullish bias, regardless of the broad market trend. Today we will examine stock... READ MORE
* The Strange Correlation between Gold and Silver. * Gold Looks Poised to Continue Trend. * Silver ETF Breaks Wedge Line. * Copper the Chopper Bounces. Correlation between Gold and Silver... Gold and silver have not been on the same page lately, but there is still a strong positive correlation between the two. The... READ MORE
* SPY Continues to Meander. * Sector Performance Remains Mixed. * Seven Industry Group ETFs Stand Out. * Regional Bank SPDR Forms Continuation Pattern. * QQQ, Top Stocks and the 50-day SMAs. * Leading Stocks with Bullish Charts. SPY Continues to Meander The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) got a nice oversold bounce the last... READ MORE
Electronic Arts (EA) is one of the leading stocks in a strong video game industry group. Note that Activision (ATVI), one of its main competitors, hit a 52-week high in late January and is challenging this high here in early March. Take-Two (TTWO) is the weakest of the big three,... READ MORE
The principle of confirmation is important to the application of Dow Theory. This principle asserts that the Averages, Dow Industrials and Dow Transports, should confirm each other when making new highs. In other words, both should make new highs to affirm the broad market trend. Failure by one results in... READ MORE
* Pullbacks versus Corrections versus Bull Markets. * Objective Uptrend and Subjective Correction. * VIX Moves Back above 20. * Gold Firms at Support Zone. * Legendary Trader Sounds the Alarm. * Trend Followers Know What they Don't Know. * CNBC Interview with Tobias Levkovich. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Pullbacks, Corrections... READ MORE
* XLK is Near Top of 2018 Range. * XLE is Near Bottom of 2018 Range. * Year-to-date Ranks for Equal-Weight Sectors. * And Then There was One. * EW Consumer Discretionary ETF Underperforms. * Scanning the Major Indexes. * Majority of Stocks are Struggling. * Non-Confirmation Among the Offensive Sectors. XLK is Near Top of 2018 Range.... READ MORE
The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) is one of the worst performing sectors year-to-date with a loss greater than 8 percent. The sector is also the second weakest in February because it failed to hold its bounce over the last two weeks. The chart shows XLP with its biggest component (P&... READ MORE
* SPY Leads with First Breakout. * Small Caps and Mid Caps Still Lagging. * Six Sectors and Six Upswings. * Techs and Materials Lead New High List. * The 800-pound Sector in the Market. * Charting the Fab Five (AAPL, GOOGL, FB, AMZN, MSFT). * Retail and Housing Lag. SPY Leads with First Breakout... For the... READ MORE
Humana (HUM) is part of the HealthCare Providers ETF (IHF) and this group led the market from mid-October to late January with a 20+ percent surge to new highs. The group pulled back in February, but the long-term trend is up and this bodes well for stocks in the group.... READ MORE
* Bulls, Bears and Fishermen. * Long-term Picture Still Bullish. * Rising SMAs for the S&P 500. * A Short-term Bullish Pattern for SPY. * Small-caps Show some Short-term RS. * Lots of Little Consolidations. * Oil Extends Bounce off Support. * Energy Stocks are Not Impressed. * Gold Miners Not Impressed Either. * Notes from the Art&... READ MORE
* Revisiting Two Momentum Systems from 2017. * A Simple Momentum Rotation System. * Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword. * A Trend-Momentum System with a Profit Target. * Successful and Unsuccessful Trades. * In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Performance. * Drawdowns are Unavoidable. * Conclusions and Takeaways. * Consulting, Software and Data. Revisiting Two Momentum Systems I introduced... READ MORE
Even though I am currently in the "correction" camp for the broader market, there are clearly pockets of strength in some key groups. The Software iShares (IGV), Cyber Security ETF (HACK), Internet ETF (FDN) and Networking iShares (IGN) are leading the technology rebound and all are close to... READ MORE