.... IJR Mean-Reversion Trade Exit .... Gold Rises without the Gold Miners .... Regional Banks Continue to Struggle .... Using an EMA Ribbon to Define the Trend (MA) .... Three Failed Setups (NTAP, STX, BMY) .... Hawaiian Holdings Bounces off Breakout .... Bullish Setups for MLM and CSRA .... A Bearish Setup for IRM .... IJR Mean-Reversion Trade Exit... READ MORE
United Parcel Service (UPS) has been lagging the broader market this year, but may be turning around as it bounces off support and momentum turns up. UPS surged to a 52-week high in December and then retraced 50% with a sharp decline in January. The stock managed to firm near... READ MORE
Trading and investing are all about putting the odds in your favor, and chartists can increase their odds with one key assumption: the trend will remain in force until proven otherwise. Coming from the writings of Charles Dow, this assumption means a trend in motion is expected to stay in... READ MORE
.... New Highs Expand in Large-caps and Mid-caps .... EW S&P 500 Reflects Broad Strength .... SPY Hits another New High .... QQQ Extends its "Overbought" Streak .... Small-caps and Mid-caps Perk Up .... New highs in XLY, XLK, XLI, XLV, XLU and XLP .... Good Weekend Stocks Lead XLY to New High... READ MORE
.... Small-caps Bounce Back from the Abyss .... Lots of Winners and Losers Out There .... A Big Chemical Stock Breaking Flag Resistance .... An Industrial Stock Bouncing off Support .... Four Tech Stocks with Small Corrections .... Big Pharma Stocks Perk Up .... Three Miscellaneous Stocks: FBHS, SYY and XRAY.... Small-caps Bounce Back from the Abyss... READ MORE
The Russian Trading System Index ($RTSI) is struggling this year and down around 6.5% year-to-date. In contrast, the S&P 500 is up over 7% year-to-date and the Eurotop 100 ($EUR) is up around 6.5%. In addition to relative weakness, the index sports a bearish continuation pattern... READ MORE
.... IJR Mean-Reversion Trade in Play .... Marking Upswing Support for MDY .... Chinese Stocks Spring to Life .... Asian Index ETFs Show Broad Strength .... Finding Stocks within an Industry Group .... Aluminum Stocks Look Poised for Upturn .... Railroad Stocks Lead with Big Gains .... Stocks to Watch: MON, FLIR, CY, PANW, PAYX, WWW .... IJR Mean-Reversion... READ MORE
.... Stocks Bounce without Biotechs .... Breadth Remains Bullish, but Weakening .... Nasdaq Stocks Support S&P 500 .... QQQ Hits Yet Another New High .... Small-caps Not Feeling the Love .... Sector Balance Clearly Bullish .... %Above 200-day Ranking for Sectors .... XLU, XLP, XLI and XLK Lead with Fresh Highs .... TLT Holds Surge and Breakout... READ MORE
.... Do stops really help? .... Setting the Benchmark .... System Ground Rules .... Consulting, Software and Data .... Testing Some Basic EMA Crossovers .... Base System and Sample Charts .... Trailing Stops, Profit Targets and Both .... Backtest Results .... Testing a Percent Profit Target .... Conclusions and Caveat Emptor .... Scan Code .... Do stops really help? We have all... READ MORE
Banking stocks bounced on Tuesday as the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) fell and the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX) moved higher. These bounces reinforce the positive correlation with TLT and the negative correlation with $TNX. The chart below shows three big banks in long-term uptrends and six month stalls. Technically, Bank... READ MORE
.... XLF Lags as TLT Surges .... A Classic Corrective Sequence for KRE .... TLT Holds Breakout and Nears 200-day .... T-bond Correlations in Play .... Large-caps Continue to Lead New High List .... Utilities and Staples Lead Sector New High List .... Charts: MMC, CB, TRV, MDLZ, KHC, DPS, CMCSA, AAL, JBLU, MDT .... XLF Lags as... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is clearly one of the leading sectors in 2017 because it is trading at its highest level of the year. XLU, by the way, is the only sector SPDR that hit a year-to-date high on Monday. The chart shows XLU correcting into November 2016, breaking out... READ MORE
The REIT iShares (IYR) and the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) are at interesting junctures because they corrected within an uptrend. Even though both are at potential reversal zones, chartists should be careful because retail REITs and hotel REITs are weak spots within the REIT universe. The chart below shows IYR... READ MORE
The stock market has been in correction mode since early March when looking at the EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY). Together, these two ETFs represent 900 stocks and cover the majority of the market, and they have been flat since March... READ MORE
.... The Stealthy Looking Correction .... AD Volume Lines Reflect Corrective Period .... High-Low Lines Have Yet to Turn Down .... Percent Above 200-day EMA Deteriorates Further .... SPY Gaps Down like its September 2016 .... Setting a Correction Zone for QQQ .... IJR: Breakout Failed, but Short-term Oversold .... Finance and Industrials Gap Lower .... Low Correlations are... READ MORE
.... Passive versus Too Active .... Using the Inspect Feature on SharpCharts .... The Good, the Bad and the Neutral .... Scan Code to Measure Performance .... Building a Correction ChartList .... S&P 500 Breadth, Momentum and Correction Target .... The active versus passive debate has been raging for some time now. On one side... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD), Euro ETF (FXE) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) are all up year-to-date and showing positive correlation. This is not a big surprise because gold is negatively correlated to the Dollar and negatively correlated to the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX). The Euro accounts for around 57%... READ MORE
.... Will Bonds or Small-caps Turn Up First? (IJR, MDY, TLT, IEF) .... Citigroup is Leading the Big Banks (XLF, JPM, BAC, MS, GS) .... A Big ETF Provider and Two Brokers (BLK, SCHW, ETFC) .... Three Railroads with Long-term Uptrends (UNP, NSC, KSU) .... Three Big Utilities Go for Breakouts (AES, D, DUK, SO)... READ MORE
Textron (TXT), which is part of the industrials sector and the defense-aerospace industry, surged to new highs after the election and then declined in 2017. I consider this a correction within a bigger uptrend because the decline retraced less than 50% of the prior advance and the stock remains above... READ MORE
Small-Cap High-Low Line is Still Rising The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but small-caps and mid-caps continue to drag their feet. The chart below shows the cumulative High-Low Line for S&P SmallCap High-Low Percent ($SMLHLP) with the 10-day EMA (pink). Notice that the High-Low Line... READ MORE
Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... On a Road to Nowhere ($VIX and $SPX) .... High-Low Lines Continue to Rise .... Deterioration in %Above 200-day Indicators .... SPY Holds the Breakout and the Gaps .... IJR and MDY Tests their Breakout Zones .... Mind the Gap-Breakouts in XLI and XLF .... Correlations with the 20+ YR T-Bond... READ MORE
.... Split Performance Hinders Biotech ETF .... Amgen Lagging Biotechs and Market .... HealthCare SPDR Holds Breakout .... Pfizer Slows to a Crawl .... Delivery and Trucking Weigh on Dow Transports .... Use Sector Summary to Drill Down .... Refiner Stocks Catch a Bid .... Stocks to Watch: AES, EMR, FLIR, NTAP Split Performance Hinders Biotech ETF The... READ MORE
I was running through some charts today and came across and interesting setup - in Xerox of all names. It has been a long time since Xerox crossed my path. The company provides document management solutions with both hardware and services. It is a $7.2 billion company and part... READ MORE
.... IJR and MDY Tests their Breakouts .... Stocks and Junk Outperforming Treasuries .... Watch BAC, C, GS and JPM for Big Banks .... Watch USB, FITB, HBAN and ZION for Regionals .... Aroons Signal Consolidaiton for Arconic .... A Small Correction for Natty? .... BHI and XOM Held Up Better than their Peers .... Charts to Watch:... READ MORE
Merck is showing signs of life as it bounces off a breakout zone and the Stochastic Oscillator turns up. The overall trend is up because the stock hit a 52-week high in February and is above the rising 40-week moving average. After a breakout surge earlier this year, the stock... READ MORE
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 6-May) ----- Stocks were mixed this past week as the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) moved higher, while the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) edged lower. SPY is... READ MORE
The McClellan Oscillator is a breadth indicator that Chartists can use to enhance their analysis of an index. StockCharts carries the McClellan Oscillator for dozens of broad market indexes, but not for the S&P sectors. There is no need to fret because StockCharts users can create the McClellan... READ MORE
... Weight of the Evidence for Stocks .... New Lows are Ticking Up in Large-caps and Mid-caps .... %Above 200-day Holds Strong for SPX and NDX .... Stocks and Bonds Rise Together .... Flags Take Shape in IEF and TLT .... S&P 500 SPDR Holds Breakout .... IJR Tests its Breakout .... QQQ Hits Another New... READ MORE
.... Sell in June to Avoid a Swoon .... Testing the Best Six Months Strategy .... A Twenty Year Testing Period .... Best versus Worst Six Months .... Four Months Stand out on Seasonality Chart .... Testing the Strongest Eight Months .... Seasonality Plus Timing Improves Returns .... Conclusions .... Testing the Best Six Months Strategy Seasonal patterns are... READ MORE
Hartford (HIG) is a big insurance concern and part of the Insurance SPDR (KIE), which is one of the best performing industry group ETFs over the last six months. The stock surged from late August to mid November and continued higher at a slower pace from January to March, hitting... READ MORE
.... XME - A Mere Correction or More? (plus COPX) .... Steel Stocks Dominate XME .... HACK and IGN Perk Up within Technology .... Vanguard Finance ETF Stalls after Gap .... Respect for Bank Analyst Dick Bové (plus GS) .... Think you Really Know what Drives a Stock?.... XME - A Mere Correction or More? (plus... READ MORE
Regeneron has gone nowhere since February 2016, but recent volume bars suggest that this may be a massive base. The stock surged off the 325 area with big volume in November. After falling back into January, the stock held above the October low and turned up the last 14 weeks.... READ MORE
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 29-Apr) ----- Stocks followed through this past week with further gains, but small-caps took a hit on Friday and underperformed for the week. Friday's hit was not enough to overshadow the breakouts in the S&P 500... READ MORE
.... Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... High-Low Percent Follow Through .... MDY and SPY Follow Through .... Large Techs and Small Caps Lead .... Sector Balance is Clearly Bullish .... Percent above 200-day EMA Reflects Broad Strength .... XLK, XLY, XLI and XLB Lead with New Highs .... Equal-weight and Small-cap Healthcare Lead .... Biotech ETFs End Corrections... READ MORE
.... ChartCon Momentum-Rotation Update .... What can we learn from this? .... Comparing with the Momentum-Driven ETFs .... Comparing Performance with PerfCharts .... Ranking Performance with the Summary View .... Measuring Relative Performance with RRGs .... Performance Since Bull Run Began .... Measuring Rolling Performance .... Volatility Can Hurt Momentum .... Today I am going to look at some momentum-style... READ MORE
Even though Vodafone remains in a long-term downtrend, the stock has been on my watch-list recently because it could be putting in bottom. Analysis of Vodafone and other ADRs is not straight-forward because there is a currency component. Usually, the movement of the stock is more than enough to compensate... READ MORE
.... Small-cap ETF Closes above Chandelier Exit .... New Highs Expand within Tech and Industrials .... Tech Stocks and ETFs Dominate New High List .... Agribusiness ETF Gets a Wedge Breakout .... Chinese Stocks Remain Subdued .... Stocks to Watch: HBAN, JBHT, CA, PFPT, NKE, WBC .... IJR Closes above Chandelier Exit With a big surge in... READ MORE
The Eurotop 100 Index surged over 2% and hit a new high to affirm its current uptrend, which began with the breakout and golden cross in early December. The index established support around 2900 over the last two months and this is the first area to watch going forward. A... READ MORE
----- Video Link ----- Art's Charts ChartList (updated 22-Apr) ----- This video is a companion to the written commentary, which was posted on Friday. Small-caps and mid-caps led a market rebound this past week and we even saw a breadth improvement. This is an encouraging spark, but the... READ MORE
.... Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... Economically Sensitive Groups Take the Lead .... Small-caps Get a Breadth Thrust .... New Highs Hit 4-week High .... IJR and MDY Lead Bounce .... More Consolidation than Correction for SPY .... QQQ Continues to Lead .... Ranking the Sectors for the Four Day Surge .... Sector SPDRs Still Tilting Bullish .... EW... READ MORE