Home Depot is the perfect cyclical stock because it sits at the crossroads of retail, housing and the consumer. The stock was a poster child of the bull market with a 200+ percent gain from 2013 to 2015. It did not stop there and even managed to hit new highs... READ MORE
--- Webinar Video --- Art's Charts Chartlist --- Stock Market Shows Broad Strength .... Record Highs in Mid-cap and Small-cap Indexes .... Don't Blame the Entire Tech Sector .... SPY Holds Breakout .... XLY Surges to Resistance Zone .... Consumer Discretionary Breadth Remains Bullish .... Scan Correction .... //// .... Even though some stocks and... READ MORE
The Russian Trading System Index has yet to break down, but it is positively correlated to Brent Crude and the recent breakdown in Brent could foreshadow a breakdown in the Russian Index. The chart shows the index stalling just above its rising 40-week EMA over the last few months. Meanwhile,... READ MORE
Three Ratios Showing Risk-On .... Small-caps Lead New High Expansion .... Finding and Scanning for New Highs .... How to Use a New High List .... Notes from the MTA Meeting ... A Relative Breakdown for EEM .... //// .... Three Ratios Showing Risk-On While there is no guarantee that the wicked rotations of the last two days... READ MORE
Mean-Reversion Strategy Hits Key Level .... SPY Breaks Out of Corrective Channel .... Finance, Industrials and Materials Dominate New High List .... Ranking Sectors by %Above 200-day EMA .... Industrials, Materials and Mining Surge Together .... Oil Greets Moment-of-truth with Feeble Bounce .... //// .... Mean-Reversion Strategy Hits Key Level Developing a trading system is sometimes easier than... READ MORE
The Steel ETF (SLX) is leading the stock market on Monday with a 10% gain in early trading. Notice that this gain is simply extending an existing trend. In other words, chartists would have done just find by looking at the chart and ignoring the news. Notice that SLX surged... READ MORE
Key Levels and Indicators to Watch for SPY .... Indicators are Not Bearish until they Trigger .... Treasury Yields Surge .... Will Correlations with the 10-yr Yield Hold Up? .... Biotech ETFs Try for Higher Lows.... //// .... Key Levels and Indicators to Watch for SPY The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell 2.54%... READ MORE
Finance, Tech and Industrials Show Chart Leadership .... Copper and Aluminum Go for Big Breakouts .... Using RSI Ranges to Define the Trend .... Gold Indicators are Bullish, but Price Breakdown Looms .... Rising 10-yr Yield is Negative to Gold .... Intermediate Trend Dominates 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF .... No Webinar this Week .... //// .... Finance, Tech and... READ MORE
The Finance SPDR (XLF) is leading the sector SPDRs with a new 52-week high on the price chart and with the price relative. On the price chart, XLF triggered its first breakout in early August with a move above the red resistance zone. Even though the ETF did not seem... READ MORE
The S&P 500 fell softly (~3%) over the last nine trading days and the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) surged over 70%. This surge puts $VIX at its highest level in over three months - but this is not necessarily bearish. $VIX is a coincident indicator... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) both broke below their September lows with IWM leading the way lower. QQQ is still holding up the best because it hit a 52-week high the week before and remains above the September low. Looking at SPY... READ MORE
SystemTrader .... Why Focus on the S&P 500? .... Moving Averages Love Whipsaws .... Adding a Smooth Operator .... Backtesting Moving Average Performance .... Scaling into Positions with Moving Averages .... Backing testing an Array of EMAs .... Conclusions.... //// .... Why Focus on the S&P 500? The S&P 500 is the most... READ MORE
Another Seven Day Decline .... Channel Defines Correction in SPY .... Revisiting the Mean-Reversion Strategy .... Is Mean-Reversion Broken? .... Strike Two for the S&P 500 .... Benchmark Lows to Find Chart Leaders and Laggards .... Revisiting the ETF Scan .... //// .... The S&P 500 closed down seven days in a row and this... READ MORE
It's been a rough five weeks for the broader market, but a few stocks and groups are still shining. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is down around 2.5% and eight of nine sectors are down since the end of September. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is... READ MORE
Webinar Video -- Art's Charts ChartList Performance for the First Ten Months .... Two Steps Forward and One Step Backward .... SPY Holds with a Spinning Top .... QQQ Continues to Lead .... RSI Does the Double Dip for IWM .... Webinar Preview .... //// .... Performance for the First Ten Months Even though we have... READ MORE
Light Crude fell sharply on the last trading day of October and ended the month down. Crude even poked its head above $52 twice during the month, but fell sharply the last two weeks of October and ended below $47. This reversal of fortune is especially interesting when we look... READ MORE
Major Index ETFs are Not that Far from Recent Highs .... Sticking with the Strategy .... Breadth Indicators Soften During Correction .... Small and Mid Caps Lead Breadth Pullback .... Breadth Summary and Conclusions .... //// .... Stocks weakened over the last two months with small and mid caps leading the way lower the last six weeks.... READ MORE
Lots of Low Liquidity .... Getting the ETF Master ChartPack .... Filtering for an Uptrend .... Ranking by StockCharts Technical Rank .... Ranking By Rate-of-Change .... Narrowing and Exporting Scan Results .... Analyzing with CandleGlance and RSI .... Conclusions .... //// .... Introduction Momentum and relative performance are related concepts that chartists can use to filter the ETF universe. Momentum... READ MORE
Performance Discrepancies Abound in Key Industry Groups .... The Problem with Support Breaks in an Uptrend (SPY, QQQ) .... Pattern Trading versus Mean-Reversion Systems (IWM) .... Day of Divergence (Breadth) .... Industrials Versus Consumer Discretionary .... Bonds, Yields, Utilities and Gold .... //// .... Performance Discrepancies Abound in Key Industry Groups The stock market remains in a real... READ MORE
Chubb trended lower from July to October, but a gap-laden reversal off a big support zone suggests that this decline may be reversing. More importantly, this decline looks like a correction with a bigger uptrend. Let's look at the evidence for a long-term uptrend. First, Chubb (CB) hit... READ MORE
Webinar Video Link .... Art's Charts ChartList Link .... Weighing the Balance of Power for the Market Sectors .... XLY Surges off 200-day EMA .... XLI Could Tilt the Balance of Power .... Falling Wedges for Retail and Housing ETFs .... Software iShares Nears New High .... Staples, Utilities and REITs Tests their 200-day EMAs... READ MORE
The Euro ETF (FXE) formed a large triangle after a sharp decline and this pattern could be just a big rest within a bigger downtrend. After falling some 25% in one year, FXE found support in March 2015 and moved sideways the last 20 months. This sideways pattern looks like... READ MORE
Investors looking to time gold should pay close attention to the 10-yr Treasury yield because these two show a strong negative correlation over the last two years. This means they move in opposite directions. The chart below shows the Gold SPDR (GLD), the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX) and the 13-week Correlation... READ MORE
Nowhere is not Necessarily Bearish .... Consumer Discretionary Shows Relative Strength .... Five Key Risk Ratios Remain Bullish .... Breadth Indicators Soften During Correction .... Mean-reverting with Breadth Indicators .... SPY Holds Mean-Reversion Bounce .... QQQ Continues to Lead .... IWM Tests Big Support Zone .... //// .... Nowhere is not Necessarily Bearish The S&P 500 has gone... READ MORE
Quantifying the Reaction to Earnings .... Scan Code for Big Movers .... Low Volume and JETS .... Apple Dwarfs the Entire Airline Group .... Using PerfCharts to Compare Airlines Performance .... Using RRGs to Measure Relative Performance for Airlines .... Emerging Markets Continue to Outperform .... //// .... Quantifying the Reaction to Earnings I was trying to get an... READ MORE
QQQ Leads the Big 3 .... SPY Forms Small Wedge .... Finance and Tech Power IWM .... Changing to Vanguard Finance ETF .... Groups Going Off the Radar .... Still Watching Retail and Housing .... Steel Stocks Propel Metals & Mining SPDR .... Airline ETF Gets Two Breakouts .... //// .... QQQ Leads the Big 3 QQQ continues to lead... READ MORE
The FirstTrust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) has been one of the top performing ETFs this year with a year-to-date gain of around 18%. As the chart below shows, the overall trend is clearly up and the ETF is forming a small bullish continuation pattern. First, a rising channel defines the... READ MORE
Three Sector Breaks Remain in Play .... The Three Big Laggards - XLV XLP XLU .... Tech, Finance and Energy Continue to Lead .... RRG Reflects Current Sector Rotations .... NatGas Continues to Lead Oil .... Webinar Video .... //// .... Click here for the webinar video. The nine sector SPDRs can be divided into three groups right... READ MORE
The consumer discretionary sector is one of the weakest performing sectors over the last six months, but the overall chart looks constructive and I am watching the October highs for a breakout. Note that I am analyzing the Equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) because it tells us how the "... READ MORE
SPY Holds Triangle Break .... Testing the Mean-Reversion Strategy with IWM and QQQ .... IWM Gaps towards Big Support Zone .... QQQ Remains with Active RSI Signal .... Do Stops Matter? .... Consumer Discretionary Sector Teeters .... Sector Trend and Breadth Table .... //// .... SPY Holds Triangle Break I covered the major stock indexes and broad market breadth... READ MORE
A Negative Week, but a Positive Year .... Broader Market is Seriously Mixed .... S&P 500 Stalls above its Breakout Zone .... Small-caps and Mid-caps Sport Corrective Patterns .... Breadth Indicators Can Foreshadow Significant Changes .... Large-cap Breadth Remains Bullish .... Weight of the Evidence Table.... //// .... A Negative Week, but a Positive Year It... READ MORE
The broader market is incredibly mixed over the last three months. Even though performance divergences reflect a divided market, the major index ETFs are holding above their June highs and I view this as a correction within an uptrend. The PerfChart below shows eight major index ETFs with four up... READ MORE
Using Breadth to Determine a Long-term Bias .... Short-term Breadth Indicators Become Oversold .... The 800-pound Gorilla in the Room .... Six of Nine Sectors Remain with Long-term Bullish Signals .... Revisiting the RSI Mean-Reversion System for SPY .... SPY Breaks Triangle Trend Line .... Further Study .... //// .... Using Breadth to Determine a Long-term Bias My long-term... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials remains locked in a trading range since the 11-Sept breakdown and chartists should watch this range for the next directional clue. The chart shows the Bollinger Bands in pink and the indicator window shows BandWidth. A move below 2 shows a significant narrowing of the bands and... READ MORE
As with the S&P 500, the Eurotop 100 ($EUR) has gone nowhere since mid July and I am focused on the recent range for the first directional clues. Trading is quite choppy within the range and it remains anyone's guess what will happen within this range.... READ MORE
Is Stalling Bullish or Bearish? .... Key Risk Indicators Remain Net Bullish .... Technology, Finance and Energy Lead .... Consumer Discretionary Groups Lag Long-term, But Lead Short-term .... Retail SPDR Attempts Breakout, But Housing Breaks Down .... //// .... Is Stalling Bullish or Bearish? Stocks started their stall in mid July and continued that stall into early... READ MORE
The rise in Treasury yields and bullish fourth quarter provide a strong tail-wind for banking stocks as we head into year-end. After experiencing a wicked whipsaw in June from the Brexit vote, the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) surged in early July and resumed an uptrend that began with the February... READ MORE
Introduction .... Background for the Best Six Month Strategy .... Seasonal Patterns Don't Always Work .... Testing the Classic Six-Month Cycle .... Tweaking the Cycle to Account for Seasonality .... Add Market Timing with weekly MACD .... SPY, MACD and Seasonality Now .... Tough to Beat EMA Crossover System .... Final Thoughts as Q4 Hits .... //// .... Introduction... READ MORE
Aroon Indicators Crash on SPY Chart .... IWM and QQQ Continue to Outperform .... Financials, Utilities and the 10-yr Yield .... Short-term Yields Rising Faster than Long-term Yields .... Plotting, Analyzing and Scanning with Bollinger Bands .... ChartList Update .... //// .... The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) moved back above 215 on Wednesday, but remains range... READ MORE
Banking stocks are leading the market on Wednesday and JP Morgan is leading the sector as one of the first of the big banks to hit a new high. I featured the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) and the Bank SPDR (KBE) in ChartWatchers this weekend and JPM has the same... READ MORE