Stocks fell sharply in September with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) breaking below its August low. Chartists can now use this low as a benchmark low to gauge relative performance. Stocks that held above the August low are showing relative strength. This is valuable information because stocks that... READ MORE
It has been a rough ride for most commodities this year and especially over the last 100 trading days (since May). Of the twelve spot prices I track, nine are up and three are down. Precious metals, base metals, lumber and grains are all down. The energy complex is the... READ MORE
A few large-caps and large-cap techs are holding up, but other areas of the market are showing weakness. Namely, the Retail SPDR (XRT) and Regional Bank ETF (KRE) are two of the weakest groups right now. These two groups are under selling pressure and this could bode ill for the... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed below the 200-day SMA for the first time since, well, June 1st. The last cross was not that long ago and recent crosses simply resulted in whipsaws. Truth be told, 200-day SMA crosses are not that relevant for IWM. The chart below shows IWM... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR bounced the last three weeks, but we did not see an improvement in breadth. Weak breadth is also reflected in performance for mid-caps and small-caps, which are lagging. Even so, SPY and QQQ are in short-term uptrends and I am watching the tech sector... READ MORE
Stocks surged in the second half of August with several ETFs breaking out of corrective patterns, such as falling flags or falling wedges. Even though September is a seasonally weak month, these breakouts are bullish until proven otherwise. Today's commentary will analyze the breakout in the Technology SPDR... READ MORE
There is some validity to the best six months strategy, but investors would probably be better off with a simple timing tool. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the best six-month period runs from November to April. The worst six-month period runs from May to October. This is... READ MORE
Stocks were hit hard in August with QQQ leading the way lower and breaking its July low. Stocks that did not break their July lows are holding up better and showing relative strength. These are the stocks I want on my WatchList for tradable pullbacks and short-term breakouts. AMAT is... READ MORE
CrowdStrike (CRWD) is separating itself from the rest of the pack with a breakout and nine month high. The chart below shows CRWD with an uptrend working throughout 2023. The stock bottomed in January, advanced to the 140 area and hit resistance here in March-April (thick red line). The stock... READ MORE
Cisco (CSCO) is showing leadership qualities again as it breaks out of a classic bullish continuation pattern and hits a new high. The chart below shows CSCO forming a cup-with-handle pattern, which was popularized by William O'Neil of IBD. This is a bullish continuation pattern, which means the... READ MORE
It does not always happen, but sometimes the indicator and chart signals align to send a powerful message. Datadog (DDOG) sports a confirmed bullish reversal on the price chart and a trend signal from the Trend Composite. Today's article will review these signals and highlight a developing short-term... READ MORE
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but this is not a bull market that lifts all boats. It is a relatively selective bull market led by technology, housing and a few other groups. This is not necessarily bad. It is, however, important to separate the leaders from... READ MORE
A long-term chart shows why the Nasdaq 100 is the place to be, or at least, "was" the place to be. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The performance chart below shows the 16+ year percentage gain for QQQ and five other ETFs. These include the S&... READ MORE
Trend-momentum strategies that trade stock-based ETFs should require two conditions before considering a position. First, broad market conditions should be bullish. This means being long stocks in bull markets and out of stocks in bear markets. Second, the trend for the ETF should be up. Employing these basic prerequisites can... READ MORE
The S&P 500 recently moved above its February high to extend its uptrend, but all is not well under the surface. Fewer stocks are participating in the May advance and a key breadth indicator formed a bearish divergence. Bearish divergences form when price records a higher high and... READ MORE
My research suggests that profit targets improve results for trend-momentum strategies that trade ETFs. Note that performance improvements may differ for other strategies. This article will first show a trend-momentum setup on the chart. I will then provide some performance metrics for a basic strategy with and without a profit... READ MORE
Chartists can find leaders by ranking ETF performance in ATR multiples, and there is even an indicator for that. Normalized-ROC puts point performance in ATR multiples and we can compare these values against others. Current Normalized-ROC leaders include the Home Construction ETF (13.37), the Technology SPDR (6.40) and... READ MORE
Chartists looking for momentum leaders should consider more than one timeframe. A stock may be leading over the last 200 days, but lagging over the last 100 days. Similarly, a stock could show big gains the last 100 days, but still be down over the last 200 days. Measuring performance... READ MORE
Trend-momentum strategies trading ETFs were appealing because they generated lower drawdowns and decent returns. Trend-momentum strategies trading stocks, in contrast, were often subject to higher drawdowns, though returns were higher. While I cannot speak for all ETF strategies, my experience shows that ETF strategies have lost their low-drawdown edge. This... READ MORE
Overbought and oversold conditions are tricky because stocks can become overbought/oversold and remain overbought/oversold as the move continues. This is why traders need another indicator or chart signal for confirmation. Today's article to look at some recent overbought/oversold conditions and use the PPO for timing.... READ MORE
Breadth is holding up for Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) stocks, but deteriorating for S&P 500 index ($SPX) stocks. I view this as a warning sign for the stock market. Breadth indicators measure the degree of participation. For example, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day... READ MORE
Small-caps are leading the way lower and breadth indicators are showing some serious deterioration under the surface. Large-caps are holding up for now, but keep in mind that weakness in small-caps foreshadowed the January 2022 peak in SPY. Today's article will compare price charts for SPY and IWM,... READ MORE
Sometimes markets trend, sometimes they oscillate and sometimes they simply frustrate. I would venture to guess that trading since 2022 falls into the frustration basket. Trend following and momentum strategies are suffering because big moves are failing to extend and develop into trends. Mean-reversion strategies were doing well, but got... READ MORE
Chartists considering a trend-following strategy can use the Trend Composite to identify trend signals and then turn to the ATR Trailing Stop for an exit strategy. A bearish Trend Composite signal could also be used as an exit strategy, but these signals usually trigger later than the ATR Trailing Stop... READ MORE
Stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading at or near new highs lead with clear uptrends. These are the names you'd want on your ChartLists or portfolio. You can find leaders by checking the list of 52-week highs or by using the StochClose indicator, which is part of the... READ MORE
The stock market has been a tough place for trend-following since January 2022, which is when the S&P 500 first triggered a bearish trend signal. The bearish signal in question is the humble 5/200 day SMA cross. There were whipsaws in the first quarter of 2022 and... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is a period of big swings and above average volatility. There were six swings of at least 10% from late January to early February 2023. Looking at other 12-14 month periods, this is the fourth most in the last 23 years. There were... READ MORE
Stocks went on a tear from late December to early February with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advancing some 11% from low to high. SPY then pulled back last week with a 2.5% decline from the February 2 high to the 10-February 10 low. A pullback... READ MORE
Last week I featured the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) with a clear resistance level to beat. Even though the 2022 decline could be a correction after a big advance, the ETF is short of a breakout and trend reversal. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also has a clear... READ MORE
The S&P 500 index has been trending lower since its peak in January 2022, but this decline could be a long correction after a massive advance. The pattern taking shape and the retracement amount is typical for corrections. Today's article highlights this setup and shows the... READ MORE
Trevor Lawrence put in a performance for the ages in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday. Chapeaux! Lawrence started the game with four interceptions in the first half but kept on throwing and brought his team back for a big win. There are some lessons here that we can... READ MORE
The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias. Chartists looking for a seasonal edge can compare benchmark metrics with the monthly performance numbers. Months that outperform the benchmarks have a positive bias, while months that seriously underperform have a negative bias.... READ MORE
The SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) surged from mid-October to early December, but this advance was considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. And this week, SPY reversed its short-term uptrend and the bearish technical setup was similar to the last two reversals. First and foremost,... READ MORE
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) crossed its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the 173rd time since 2000 and the performance for this "signal" is not that great. Buying and selling the 200-day SMA cross produced a lower return than buy and hold. This cross, however,... READ MORE
2022 has been a tough market for trend-followers, but swing traders have been able to catch a few rides. Trend-followers are suffering because whipsaws are above average this year. A whipsaw occurs when an uptrend cannot extend after a bullish trend signal and the trade results in a loss. Before... READ MORE
Stocks surged this week with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advancing over 5% and nearing its falling 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The big trend is still down because SPY recorded a 52-week low a month ago and a lower low from June to October. The ETF... READ MORE
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) moved to a new low from June to October 2022, but copper held up better with a higher low and broke short-term resistance with an outsized move this week. A breakout with an outsized move shows above-average strength and it looks like the... READ MORE
The seasonal patterns for October and yearend are quite positive, but seasonality is just one aspect of broad market analysis and the weight of the evidence remains bearish. The histogram below shows the seasonal patterns for the S&P 500 over the last twenty years. Five of the twelve... READ MORE
The pickings are extremely thin in the markets because the vast majority of groups are in downtrends. TrendInvestorPro tracks trend signals in 274 ETFs. This list include 170 stock-based ETFs, 18 fixed income ETFs, 17 commodity ETFs, 9 currency ETFs and 60 non-US ETFs. Only 14 (5.1%) of the... READ MORE
Technical analysts often scoff at the notion that a 20% decline marks a bear market. However, a look back shows that further losses are certainly possible after a 20% decline. Over the last 25 years, the last two bear markets started with declines in excess of 20% and the S&... READ MORE