A Market Entitled to a Correction // Using StochRSI to Time Pops in QQQ // A Mild Correction for SPY // Big Techs and Biotechs Drive QQQ Lower // Breaking Down the Big Five - FAAAM // Apple is the Weakest of the Big Five, but.... // Microsoft and Alphabet Hit Interesting Junctures //// ....... A Market Entitled... READ MORE
There are bearish engulfing patterns and then there are BEARISH ENGULFING patterns. VeriSign formed the latter with one of the biggest I have seen in some time. The chart shows the bearish engulfing pattern opening above the April high and finishing near the early March low. The stock got a... READ MORE
SPDRs versus Equal-weight Sectors // Three Long-term Sector Laggards // Two Long-term Sector Leaders // Technology and Consumer Discretionary Weigh // Marking Key Support for Finance, Industrials and Healthcare // Staples and Utilities Still Leading on Price Charts // Materials is Most Extended // Webinar Preview //// ....... SPDRs versus Equal-weight Sectors The sector SPDRs represent large-caps stocks with... READ MORE
The first week of the month is always a big week for Treasury bonds and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT). There are always a slew of key economic reports and the employment report is usually the first Friday of the month. I am not going to get into the... READ MORE
Putting the Pullback into Perspective // Breadth Softens, but Bullish Signals Remain // New Highs Dwindle, but Stay Net Positive // The Key Level for SPY is Obvious // A Battle Zone Brews for IWM // A Bull Flag for QQQ? //// ....... Putting the Pullback into Perspective The Nasdaq 100 ETF led the market lower with... READ MORE
Semis Lead Tech Breakdown // Retail Leads EW Consumer Discretionary Lower // Adding MACD to the Best Seven Months Strategy // Adding Bonds for a Rotational Seven Month Strategy // Friday Food for Thought //// ....... Semis Lead Tech Breakdown Semiconductors and the average tech stock were holding up better than large-cap techs, but that changed... READ MORE
Generals Not Following the Troops // Unfilled Gaps Haunt QQQ // SPY Set to Test Gap Zone // IWM is the Current Leader // XLI Leads with New High // Three Strong Groups within Technology // Yen Broke out Before BoJ Surprise // Gold Battles Flag Breakout // Oil Reaches Fibonacci Retracement // Stocks to Watch ADI, INTC, QCOM,... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is one of the weakest of the major index ETFs right now because of several large-caps within the ETF. Note that Apple (-10%), Facebook (-6%), Google (-6.5%) and Microsoft (-8%) are all down sharply this month. Amazon (+2%) is the only one of the... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Dissecting the Best Six Months Pattern // Historical Numbers Confirm // Shorting the Market is a Challenge // What is the deal with October? // Reducing the Dreaded Drawdown // Testing the 50-200 Cross Since 1950 // Final Thoughts // ......... May is approaching and this means the stock market is entering its weakest six-month period. With... READ MORE
The appetite for risk has increased over the past month with small-caps, mid-caps and micro-caps leading the market higher. The PerfChart below shows one-month performance for the S&P 500 SPDR (red) and seven other broad market index ETFs. The S&P MidCap SPDR (green), S&P... READ MORE
Small-caps, Junk Bonds and Risk Appetite // QQQ Forms Island Reversal // IWM Continues to Outperform // SPY Holds Breakout // HACK Consolidates after Big Surge // Seven Cyber Security Stocks to Watch //// Small-caps, Junk Bonds and Risk Appetite Even though the stock market may be ripe for a correction of some sort in the... READ MORE
SPY Challenges the Top of the Range // QQQ Continues to Lag SPY // Breadth Remains Strong Enough // High-Low Percent Wanes in April // Treasury Yields Could be Bottoming // Assets Affected by Rising Rates // Breakouts for the Finance, Bank and Broker ETFs // Oil Hits Prior Support Breaks // Gold Battles Flag Breakout // Dollar Turns... READ MORE
Large-caps Still Leading, but Small-caps Perk Up // Mind the Gaps in SPY and IWM // Sector Rotation is Bullish for Broader Market // XLI, XLK and XLY Near 52-week Highs // XLY, XLI and XLK Hold Consolidation Breakouts // Utilities and Staples Suffer as Bond Surrogates // Short-term Leaders Remain Strong // Yield Surge is Bullish... READ MORE
There has been a clear changing of the guard in April and chartists can see this change with a PerfChart on two different timeframes. The first PerfChart shows performance for the nine sectors SPDRs and SPY for the first three months of the year. Notice that the Consumer Staples SPDR... READ MORE
New Highs for SPY and DIA // Uptrends Extend for SPY, QQQ and IWM // New Highs in Several AD Lines // Risk Indicators Turn Up Again // Five Clear Sector Leaders // Three of Five FAAAM Stocks Strong // Webinar Highlights //// New Highs for SPY and DIA The weight of the evidence remains bullish for... READ MORE
Electronic Arts (EA) got a big bounce off support with expanding volume and a strong Accumulation Distribution Line. On the price chart, EA plunged in late January and early February on high volume and this looks like a selling climax. The stock quickly recovered with pretty good volume and then... READ MORE
Oil Hits Resistance in Retracement Zone // Energy and Finance Lagging Overall // XLE Forms Yet Another Wedge // Short-term Breakout Holding for XLE // Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Lags XLE //// Oil Enters Potential Reversal Zone In Friday's commentary, I noted that oil was in a long-term downtrend and... READ MORE
It was a pretty good week for the stock market with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the Finance SPDR (XLF) showing upside leadership for a change. IWM gained 3.21% for the week and led the major index ETFs higher. XLF gained 4.60% and was the second strongest... READ MORE
Dow Breaks out of Massive Triangle // Sectors Close to 52-week Highs // Sector High-Low Leaders // XLK is the Clear Leader // Finance Perks Up with Flag Breakout // Healthcare Challenges Channel // Silver Hits Resistance // Dollar Firms at Support // Oil: A Bounce within a Downtrend //// Dow Breaks out of Massive Triangle The chart below... READ MORE
An All Time High within Reach // When Support is Greater than Resistance // Corrections within the Uptrend // Offensive Sectors Lead // Bullish Resolutions Define Market Environment //// An All Time High within Reach I am operating under the thesis that there is more bullish evidence out there than bearish evidence. In other words,... READ MORE
Today's stock market rally started in Asia, extended into Europe and carried through to the US this morning. The major European indices were sharply higher with the London FTSE ($FTSE) leading the charge. On the price chart, the FSTE surged to a trend line extending down from May... READ MORE
Bull, Bear or Neutral? // Small and Mid Caps Still Underperforming // Three Big Sector Drags // Breaking Down Sector Weightings // Ranking the Nine Sector SPDRs // Webinar Video //// Bull, Bear or Neutral? There is an argument to be made that the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a big trading range.... READ MORE
Alcoa (AA) kicks off first quarter earnings with its report today after the market close. I have no idea about earnings or how the stock will react, but price is at a most interesting juncture as a consolidation takes place just below resistance. This weekly candlestick chart shows AA breaking... READ MORE
High-Low Percent Confirms Bullish Environment // Pullbacks Remain Shallow // IWM Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern // Risk Indicators Soften // Treasury Bond ETFs Break Out // Oil Corrects and Breaks Out // Gold Challenges Flag Resistance // Catching Up //// High-Low Percent Confirms Bullish Environment I am back in the saddle and not much has changed in the... READ MORE
$SPX Leads on the Charts // Vacation // $MID Leads the Surge // Long-term EMA Slope Turns Positive for $SML // It is All about Timeframe // New Lows Perk Up in Small-caps // Bullish Until Proven Otherwise // Watch Treasury Yields for Clues // Oil Stalls at Key Retracement // Friday Food for Thought //// S&P 500... READ MORE
Eight Risk Ratios to Watch // Replay of October Surge // SPY and the PPO Strategy // QQQ and IWM Trends Remain Mixed // Feds Talk and Bonds Balk // Oil Set to Test Breakout // Finance Stalls Near Key Retracement // Precious Metals Take a Hit // Vacation Notice //// I am seeing a bit of deterioration in... READ MORE
The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) has been one of the weakest industry group ETFs over the past year and that looks set to continue with the recent breakdown. The chart shows TAN bouncing with the market from mid February to mid March and hitting resistance near broken support. This is... READ MORE
Risk Indicators Remain Bullish // Comparing the Current Advance with October // Volume Flows Strong in SPY // Industrials and Technology Maintain Top Position // Utilities and Staples Start Slacking // Webinar Video //// Risk Indicators Remain Bullish There is not much change in the overall picture for the stock market - and the other markets... READ MORE
UA is attracting buying interest as March madness moves to the sweet sixteen. Note that UA sponsored 10 teams at the start of the tournament, including Utah and Notre Dame. On the price chart, the stock has a bullish cup-with-handle pattern taking shape. This is a continuation pattern and a... READ MORE
The Great Rotation of 2016 // Finance Sector Correlations to Watch // Wedge Continues to Rise for 10-yr Yield // Big Banks Make-or-break XLF // REITs and Insurance Power RYF // Breakouts and Uptrends for 6 Big Banks //// The Great Rotation of 2016 It has been a tale of two markets in 2016. The first... READ MORE
Two weeks ago I featured the NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) and the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator ($NAMO) as they surged to their highest levels in years. These breadth indicators are very broad and represent virtually all stocks traded in the US. Big moves in both breadth indicators signaled a bullish breadth... READ MORE
Turning Year-to-date Positive // Breakouts are Holding, Not Folding // Risk Appetite Remains Healthy // S&P 500 Leads New High Expansion // New Highs Increase for Techs and Industrials // Getting Close to More 52-week Highs // XLI Exceeds November High // Metals & Mining SPDR Hits Retracement Zone // Friday Food for Thought //// Turning Year-to-date... READ MORE
SPY Leads Market Higher // The One-Two Breadth Punch // Surging within a Big Range // Marking a Reversal Zone for a Pullback // Healthcare Breaks Down as Finance Stalls // Gold and Silver Affirm Support Levels // Crude Holds Double Bottom Breakout //// QQQ led the big three with the biggest gain on Wednesday and the... READ MORE
The chart below shows the seasonal patterns for the S&P 500 over the last twenty years. The bars show the percent of months that the S&P 500 closed positive and the numbers at the bottom show the average change. Three months stand out from the rest:... READ MORE
Risk Indicators Still Bullish // SPY Leads with Strongest Short-term Uptrend // Energy, Finance and Healthcare are the Laggards // Consumer Discretionary SPDR Holds Breakout // Industrials SPDR Nears Prior High // Webinar Preview //// Risk Indicators Still Bullish The financial markets still have a good appetite for risk and this is bullish for stocks. The... READ MORE
Chartists can measure relative performance by comparing the price to a moving average. In particular, I am going to measure the percentage above or below the 200-day EMA using the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO). The PPO (1,200,1) measures the percentage difference between the 200-day EMA and the current... READ MORE
SPY Takes the Lead as QQQ Extends Breakout // Defensive Sectors Still Leading, but Tech is Performing Well // Materials and Industrials Challenge Long-term Downtrends // Consumer Discretionary Remains a Mess // Healthcare, Energy and Finance Round out the Bottom // Still Watching High-Low Percent // Tweaking the Percent from High Scan // Zweig Breadth Thrust Revisited... READ MORE
S&P 500 Battles 2K // Majority of Stocks above 200-day // Short-term Uptrends Hold // Watching Bonds and Yields Closely // Gold and the Yen // Three High and Tight Flags in Tech Sector // Stock Setups and Breakouts // CA, CSCO, DTLK, MSFT, ABBV and FRGI // // S&P 500 Battles 2K There is... READ MORE
Two of the nine sector SPDRs hit new 52-week highs today (March 9th) - and I bet you can figure out which ones. The image below comes from the pre-defined technical alerts page. Notice that we had three bullish alerts (green) and three bearish (red). The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP)... READ MORE
The Biotech iShares (IBB) is one of the weakest industry group ETFs and the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) is one of the weakest sector SPDRs right now. Amgen is part of both and the stock broke down with a sharp decline the last two days. The price chart shows AMGN with... READ MORE