An All Time High within Reach // When Support is Greater than Resistance // Corrections within the Uptrend // Offensive Sectors Lead // Bullish Resolutions Define Market Environment //// An All Time High within Reach I am operating under the thesis that there is more bullish evidence out there than bearish evidence. In other words,... READ MORE
Today's stock market rally started in Asia, extended into Europe and carried through to the US this morning. The major European indices were sharply higher with the London FTSE ($FTSE) leading the charge. On the price chart, the FSTE surged to a trend line extending down from May... READ MORE
Bull, Bear or Neutral? // Small and Mid Caps Still Underperforming // Three Big Sector Drags // Breaking Down Sector Weightings // Ranking the Nine Sector SPDRs // Webinar Video //// Bull, Bear or Neutral? There is an argument to be made that the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a big trading range.... READ MORE
Alcoa (AA) kicks off first quarter earnings with its report today after the market close. I have no idea about earnings or how the stock will react, but price is at a most interesting juncture as a consolidation takes place just below resistance. This weekly candlestick chart shows AA breaking... READ MORE
High-Low Percent Confirms Bullish Environment // Pullbacks Remain Shallow // IWM Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern // Risk Indicators Soften // Treasury Bond ETFs Break Out // Oil Corrects and Breaks Out // Gold Challenges Flag Resistance // Catching Up //// High-Low Percent Confirms Bullish Environment I am back in the saddle and not much has changed in the... READ MORE
$SPX Leads on the Charts // Vacation // $MID Leads the Surge // Long-term EMA Slope Turns Positive for $SML // It is All about Timeframe // New Lows Perk Up in Small-caps // Bullish Until Proven Otherwise // Watch Treasury Yields for Clues // Oil Stalls at Key Retracement // Friday Food for Thought //// S&P 500... READ MORE
Eight Risk Ratios to Watch // Replay of October Surge // SPY and the PPO Strategy // QQQ and IWM Trends Remain Mixed // Feds Talk and Bonds Balk // Oil Set to Test Breakout // Finance Stalls Near Key Retracement // Precious Metals Take a Hit // Vacation Notice //// I am seeing a bit of deterioration in... READ MORE
The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) has been one of the weakest industry group ETFs over the past year and that looks set to continue with the recent breakdown. The chart shows TAN bouncing with the market from mid February to mid March and hitting resistance near broken support. This is... READ MORE
Risk Indicators Remain Bullish // Comparing the Current Advance with October // Volume Flows Strong in SPY // Industrials and Technology Maintain Top Position // Utilities and Staples Start Slacking // Webinar Video //// Risk Indicators Remain Bullish There is not much change in the overall picture for the stock market - and the other markets... READ MORE
UA is attracting buying interest as March madness moves to the sweet sixteen. Note that UA sponsored 10 teams at the start of the tournament, including Utah and Notre Dame. On the price chart, the stock has a bullish cup-with-handle pattern taking shape. This is a continuation pattern and a... READ MORE
The Great Rotation of 2016 // Finance Sector Correlations to Watch // Wedge Continues to Rise for 10-yr Yield // Big Banks Make-or-break XLF // REITs and Insurance Power RYF // Breakouts and Uptrends for 6 Big Banks //// The Great Rotation of 2016 It has been a tale of two markets in 2016. The first... READ MORE
Two weeks ago I featured the NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) and the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator ($NAMO) as they surged to their highest levels in years. These breadth indicators are very broad and represent virtually all stocks traded in the US. Big moves in both breadth indicators signaled a bullish breadth... READ MORE
Turning Year-to-date Positive // Breakouts are Holding, Not Folding // Risk Appetite Remains Healthy // S&P 500 Leads New High Expansion // New Highs Increase for Techs and Industrials // Getting Close to More 52-week Highs // XLI Exceeds November High // Metals & Mining SPDR Hits Retracement Zone // Friday Food for Thought //// Turning Year-to-date... READ MORE
SPY Leads Market Higher // The One-Two Breadth Punch // Surging within a Big Range // Marking a Reversal Zone for a Pullback // Healthcare Breaks Down as Finance Stalls // Gold and Silver Affirm Support Levels // Crude Holds Double Bottom Breakout //// QQQ led the big three with the biggest gain on Wednesday and the... READ MORE
The chart below shows the seasonal patterns for the S&P 500 over the last twenty years. The bars show the percent of months that the S&P 500 closed positive and the numbers at the bottom show the average change. Three months stand out from the rest:... READ MORE
Risk Indicators Still Bullish // SPY Leads with Strongest Short-term Uptrend // Energy, Finance and Healthcare are the Laggards // Consumer Discretionary SPDR Holds Breakout // Industrials SPDR Nears Prior High // Webinar Preview //// Risk Indicators Still Bullish The financial markets still have a good appetite for risk and this is bullish for stocks. The... READ MORE
Chartists can measure relative performance by comparing the price to a moving average. In particular, I am going to measure the percentage above or below the 200-day EMA using the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO). The PPO (1,200,1) measures the percentage difference between the 200-day EMA and the current... READ MORE
SPY Takes the Lead as QQQ Extends Breakout // Defensive Sectors Still Leading, but Tech is Performing Well // Materials and Industrials Challenge Long-term Downtrends // Consumer Discretionary Remains a Mess // Healthcare, Energy and Finance Round out the Bottom // Still Watching High-Low Percent // Tweaking the Percent from High Scan // Zweig Breadth Thrust Revisited... READ MORE
S&P 500 Battles 2K // Majority of Stocks above 200-day // Short-term Uptrends Hold // Watching Bonds and Yields Closely // Gold and the Yen // Three High and Tight Flags in Tech Sector // Stock Setups and Breakouts // CA, CSCO, DTLK, MSFT, ABBV and FRGI // // S&P 500 Battles 2K There is... READ MORE
Two of the nine sector SPDRs hit new 52-week highs today (March 9th) - and I bet you can figure out which ones. The image below comes from the pre-defined technical alerts page. Notice that we had three bullish alerts (green) and three bearish (red). The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP)... READ MORE
The Biotech iShares (IBB) is one of the weakest industry group ETFs and the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) is one of the weakest sector SPDRs right now. Amgen is part of both and the stock broke down with a sharp decline the last two days. The price chart shows AMGN with... READ MORE
The Great Debate Rages // SPY Maintains Short-term Uptrend // QQQ Sputters // IWM Continues to Lead // Bond Trends Favor Stocks // April Crude Breaks Prior High // Gold, Platinum and Silver Hold Breakouts // Ranking the Sectors on 6-month Performance // XLU and XLP Still Leading // XLF and XLV Lagging // Webinar Preview //// The Great Debate Rages... READ MORE
Alphabet (GOOGL) is weighing on the Nasdaq 100 ETF as it fails at the 50-day simple moving average and the price relative breaks down. The six month candlestick chart shows GOOGL surging to 800 after earnings and then immediately falling back below 700 in early February. The stock market got... READ MORE
The McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE and Nasdaq surged over the last few weeks and hit multi-year highs. Medium-term, I would consider this breadth surge bullish. Short-term, however, it creates an overbought condition that could lead to a pullback or consolidation in stocks. Despite this double-edged sword, the medium and... READ MORE
Stock Market Environment Takes a Turn // Just a Big Correction after an even Bigger Advance? // October 2015 versus February 2016 // 10-YR Treasury Yield Surges // S&P 1500 Breadth Thrust Triggers // High-Low Percent Indicators have Work to Do // McClellan Oscillators Hit Multi-year Highs // Friday Food for Thought //// Stock Market Environment... READ MORE
13 Days that Shook the Market // Bullish Breadth Thrust Nears // Checking the Signals in 2011 (again) // Still Hanging out in No Man's Land // All Nine Sector SPDRs in Short-term Uptrends // Bullish Continuation Patterns in Precious Metals // Nothing but Downtrend for Oil and NatGas //// 13 Days that Shook the... READ MORE
2015 was a rough year for Finish Line and the Retail SPDR (XRT) as both fell rather sharply. FINL was down over 20% and XRT fell over 8%. 2016 is shaping up a bit different because FINL is up around 2% year-to-date and XRT turned positive on Tuesday. Furthermore, FINL... READ MORE
Major index ETFs Maintain Short-term Uptrends // Small and Mid Caps Show Relative Strength // Sentiment is Quite Bearish // Credit Conditions are Improving (JNK, LQD, TLT) // Keep an Eye on Safe Haven Assets (GLD,FXY,TLT) // Relative Weakness in Finance Sector Remains a Concern //// Major index ETFs Maintain Short-term Uptrends The major... READ MORE
The chart for the US Dollar ETF (UUP) is bit of a mess, but I think the overall trend is up and the US-German yield differential looks poised to move higher. The main chart window shows UUP hitting a multi-month high with the October-November surge. The ETF then fell with... READ MORE
Breadth Thrust Falls Short // Setting a Potential Reversal Zone // 3 Keys to Short-term Uptrend // Bearish PPO Setups // Confirming the Short-term Trend with Breadth // XLK and XLY Tests Falling 200-day // XLE Remains the Weakest // XLP Forms Outside Reversal //// Breadth Thrust Falls Short We are still in a bear market environment. Breadth... READ MORE
A Most Violent Range // SPY is first to Clear Prior High // Watching for the Bullish Breadth Thrust // S&P 500 Leads High-Low Percent // Signal Pecking Order // Following Crude and Junk // Consumer Discretionary and Industrials Come Alive // Finance and Energy Remain Laggards // Friday Food for Thought //// A Most Violent Range... READ MORE
Setting Short-term Support for the big 3 // Short-term Breadth Remains Bullish // Next Two Days Could Hold the Key for Breadth // Equal-weight, Small-caps and Mid-caps Take the Lead // Consumer Discretionary and Retail Outperform // Junk Bonds Get a Bounce // Bonds, Gold and the Yen // Rising Wedges in XLI and XLB // Stocks of... READ MORE
Five stocks dominate the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and traders should keep a close eye on these when trading or investing in QQQ. Apple (10.97%), Alphabet (9.34%), Microsoft (8.5%), Amazon (5.39%) and Facebook (4.98%) account for almost 40% of QQQ. After Facebook, the next biggest... READ MORE
SPY Hits Moment of Truth // %Above 20-day EMA Becomes Overbought // Oil is Still in a Downtrend // Reviewing the PPO Strategy // Reconciling the PPO with the Price Chart // Webinar Preview SPY Hits Moment of Truth It was another day and another gap as SPY closed at its highest level since early... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is setting up for its first test as it nears resistance in the 1950 area. The chart below shows the index below the falling 200-day SMA and the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. The overall trend here is clearly down, but the ~6% rally... READ MORE
Breadth Surge Falls Short of Bullish Signal // Another Gap to Mind // Stocks of Interest (CHKP, FB, SYK, UNH) //// The long-term evidence remains bearish, but the short-term evidence turned bullish with the reversals and gaps in mid February. As noted in Friday's commentary, I use a three-prong approach to... READ MORE
It has been a rough year for most of the stock market with seven of the nine sector SPDRs down year-to-date. The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) is up .69% and the Utilities SPDR (XLU) is up a whopping 6.75%. Among the seven negative sectors, the Industrials SPDR (XLI) is... READ MORE
Three Prong Approach // Major Index Trends Remain Down // Breadth Indicators remain Net Bearish // Some Risk Indicators Stabilize, but have yet to Turn Up // Staples and Utilities Still Holding Up // XLP Struggles since Market Peak // XLU Benefits from Two Negative Correlations // A Bounce within a Downtrend for XLU // XLK Battles Support... READ MORE
Putting the 3-day Surge into Perspective // The Concept of the Zweig Breadth Thrust // Don’t forget Nasdaq Stocks // A Weight of the Evidence Approach to Breadth Thrusts // Measuring Money Flow Thrusts with AD Volume Percent // Final Confirmation with High-Low Percent // The Bottom Line //// Putting the 3-day Surge into Perspective A... READ MORE
Taiwan Semiconductor is breaking out of a bullish pattern with good volume and the stock is showing relative strength. The price chart shows a cup-with-handle forming from December to mid-February. This is a bullish continuation pattern that was popularized by William O'Neil. There are three resistance levels marked... READ MORE