Short-term Treasury yields surged over the last six days and recent breakouts suggest that the Fed will raise short-term rates in December. Yes, it sounds blasphemous, but the bond market tends to lead the Fed in these matters. Â In fact, I would suggest that the bond market is the closest... READ MORE
Highlights:  AD Line Reflects Broad Market Strength   //  When Overbought is Positive  //  QQQ and SPY Extend Uptrends  //  IWM Breaks Back Out  //  Short and Medium Term Seasonal Patterns  //  Consumer Discretionary Sector Breaks Resistance  //  Housing and Retail Still Lagging  //  Oil Still Bearish  //   Webinar Highlights  //// AD Line Reflects Broad Market Strength The broad market... READ MORE
Refiner stocks are showing relative strength and absolute strength. The table below shows nine refiner stocks from the Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK). Eight of the nine are part of our StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) universe and six of the nine have SCTRs above 90. Calumet (CLMT) is a small-cap stock... READ MORE
Commentary Highlights:  Bulk of the Evidence Is...  //   New Highs Outpace New Lows   //  Monthly S&P 500 Turns Bullish   //   Engulfings and Pullbacks in 2010 and 2011   //   Consumer Discretionary Lags %Above 50-day   //   Finance and Tech Lead %Above 200-day  //  Russell 2000 Still Stalling  //  A Better Small-cap Index   //  Utilities Index Hits a Wall... READ MORE
Commentary Highlights:   QQQ and SPY Near Highs   //   End of Month Seasonality   //   Regional Banks Power Finance Sector   //    50% Participation is Enough to Power SPX   //   Software and Internet Lead Techs   //   GDX Fails to Break Out   //   Palladium Corrects after Impulse Surge   //   Oil Gets Oversold Bounce   //   Dollar Gets a Breakout   //   Dollar-Commodity Correlations Come Into... READ MORE
Treasury yields are in a clear downtrend since June, but a small anomaly is taking shape because the 30-year Treasury Yield ($UST30Y) did not confirm the lower low in the 10-year Treasury Yield ($UST10Y). Â The first chart shows the 10-yr yield peaking around 2.5% and falling towards the 2%... READ MORE
Embracing Relative Performance There is really only one thing to do with relative performance metrics: embrace them. If large-caps are outperforming small-caps, then favor large-caps over small-caps. If the consumer staples sector is outperforming the consumer discretionary sector, then favor consumer staple stocks over consumer discretionary stocks. Following relative strength... READ MORE
The percentage of NYSE net new highs remains at relatively low levels and chartists should watch this indicator for clues on follow through to the October surge. StockCharts users can plot new highs and new lows using SharpCharts. The first chart shows NYSE New 52-week Highs ($NYHGH) and NYSE New... READ MORE
Never Underestimate the Power of the Trend An important change occurred over the last two weeks as the overall market environment moved from bearish to bullish. The weekly trend for the Nasdaq 100 turned back up on October 9th and the weekly trend for the S&P 500 turned... READ MORE
Even though indicators help us quantify price action and add an objective aspect to our analysis, we must still study the price chart and analyze the price action. Â For example, it looks like the long-term uptrend is resuming for the S&P 500, but some of the price indicators... READ MORE
Internal Divisions Stymie Market It is still a tale of two markets. Within the broader stock market, large-caps and large-techs are holding up well, but small-caps and mid-caps are dragging their feet. At the sector level, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR shows relative strength because its top holdings are performing well,... READ MORE
It has been a rough year for trucking stocks and most of these stocks are lagging the broader market. Â A look at the trucking stocks from the Sector Summary shows a handful with SCTRs above 50. The vast majority of SCTRs are 50. Â The SCTR is the StockCharts Technical Rank... READ MORE
A Price Surge to Match the Breadth Thrust It has been one heck of a three week period. SPY is up around 8%, QQQ is up around 9% and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) is up around 7.5%. There are, of course, two ways to interpret these price surges.... READ MORE
It has been a rough two and a half months for the stock market with a major segment underperforming and one key industry group lagging. Â Semiconductors, however, are emerging as leaders within the technology sector. The major index ETFs are all down since the end of July with the S&... READ MORE
I am starting to entertain the idea that the surge from late September to mid October was strong enough to negate the August breakdowns in SPY and QQQ. The bounce over the last few weeks contained strong breadth and strong upside volume. Also notice that SPY broke above the mid... READ MORE
Large caps continue to outperform "other" caps and this has created a performance discrepancy within the consumer discretionary sector. I am highlighting this sector because it is the most economically sensitive sector and includes many domestically focused industry groups, including retail, restaurant, media and home construction. Â The first... READ MORE
Today I will start with weekly charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, or the big three as I call these major stock indices. One remains in an uptrend, one is close to reversing its downtrend and one remains in a clear downtrend. I am... READ MORE
Stalling and not Really Falling  (Yet) Looking at the big three major index ETFs, two of the three are still short-term bullish and have yet to break down. QQQ stalled with some serious indecision the last four days. SPY is down about 1% the last two days, but remains above... READ MORE
Price action has been rather volatile since the August breakdown, but some performance discrepancies are emerging in October and these could foreshadow broad market weakness. The chart below shows the Russell 2000, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Industrials, all on one chart for easy comparison. First, notice... READ MORE
Small-caps Show Relative Weakness After stalling for two days, the major index ETFs moved lower on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) leading the way. Small-caps were lagging in September and they continue to lag in October. While SPY and QQQ managed to exceed their mid September highs, IWM... READ MORE
Stymied Indexes Form Narrow Range Days Stocks stalled on Monday with mixed action in the major index ETFs. Stalling or sideways price action reflects a stand-off between bulls and bears (buying pressure and selling pressure). Note that the price range over the last two trading days has also been extremely... READ MORE
Airline stocks are on the move Monday with nice gains across the board. Hawaiian Airlines (HA) and Skywest (SKYW) are leading the way with breakouts and 52-week highs today. These two have the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) of the group and are clearly the strongest of the pack. There... READ MORE
The major index ETFs are nearing their moment-of-truth as the smaller uptrends start to challenge the bigger downtrends. I am still assuming that the August breakdowns signaled the start of a bigger downtrend. While I do not know how long this downtrend will last, I have yet to get a... READ MORE
Before looking at some charts to establish the bigger trend, I would like to philosophize a little on the analysis process and my approach. I use basic chart analysis and some simple trend-following indicators to define the trend and trade accordingly. My main goal is to be as OBJECTIVE as... READ MORE
Monday's Gaps Hold the First Key I am still working under the assumption that bigger trend is down after the August break down. Furthermore, SPY and QQQ are in the midst of counter trend moves denoted by a rising channel. The channel lines are based on the closing... READ MORE
Monster Beverage (MNST) did not partake in the early October surge and a key volume indicator suggests that distribution is underway. Let's start with the price chart. MNST fell sharply in August and then firmed just above the rising 200-day moving average in September. Volatility contracted as the... READ MORE
Overall, the major index ETFs remain in no man's land. Put another way, the market is between a rock (bigger downtrend) and a hard place (smaller uptrend). The bigger trend turned down with the August breakdown and broken resistance represents the rock around 2050. Short-term, the S&... READ MORE
Welcome to No Man's Land After months of dull trading, the stock market turned into Thrillsville in late August and volatility has continued into early October. This volatility is reminiscent of the periods from June to August 2010 and from early August to early October 2011. It took... READ MORE
Stock market declines are good because they expose the weak hands and highlight potentially strong stocks. Stocks that hold up during a broad market decline show relative strength and this could lead to outperformance when the market turns up again. Xilinx (XLNX) is one such stock because it held up... READ MORE
Note that I will post a video around 10AM ET. Volatility is clearly heating up as the S&P 500 completed its fifth 3+ percent swing since the August closing low. That is almost one 3+ percent swing per week (based on closing prices). With a 3.7% surge... READ MORE
The Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) perked up on Friday with a massive engulfing pattern on high volume. Combined with a bullish failure swing in RSI, the ETF could be setting up for a tradable low. Created by Welles Wilder, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a... READ MORE
Note that I will add a video around 11AM ET. Stock futures were higher before the employment report and then moved sharply lower after non-farm payrolls came in below expectations. Bonds are moving higher and the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) fell below 2%. The decline in stocks and rise in... READ MORE
Between a Setup and a Signal Note that I will post a video around 10AM ET. Trends are the driving force, signals are the exception and no-man's land is the norm. What the heck does that mean? First, the bigger trend is the driving force in my trading... READ MORE
Corn is showing signs of firming near the June lows and a possible wave 2 could be ending for the Corn Trust ETF (CORN). I will first start with December Corn Futures (^CZ15) because this is the most widely traded instrument for corn. Note that StockCharts provides end-of-day (EOD) data... READ MORE
The medium-term and short-term trends for the major index ETFs are down, but there are some stocks holding up well over the last two months and I am highlighting ten today. The charts below extend six months with the PPOs in the first indicator window and the price relative in... READ MORE
Cash Outperforms Defensive Sectors Correlations rise when the major stock indices are in downtrends. In addition, the deeper and sharper the decline, the higher the positive correlation among stocks. This means there are few places to hide when the stock market turns down. Healthcare, consumer staples and utilities are traditionally... READ MORE
The biotech ETFs have gone from leaders to laggards as the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) plunged double-digits over the past week. The image below shows the ETFs with the biggest decline in their SCTR over the past week. You can set the time period using the drop down at the... READ MORE
Bigger Trend and Breadth Remain Bearish Programming note: I will add a video to this commentary by 10AM ET. Also note that I will not be doing a webinar on Tuesday, but will post a commentary. There is no change in the medium-term trends and indicators for the major index... READ MORE
The next charts show mostly stocks in uptrends with recent breakouts. For example, AMZN broke out on September 8th and this breakout is holding. The ability to hold a breakout in a weak market shows both absolute and relative strength. There are two setups for stocks that are in downtrends... READ MORE
Using Volatility-Adjusted Channels Note that I will be making a second post today with some individual stock charts (AMZN, AAPL, FB, NFLX, PANW, TASR, TSLA, UA, XOM and more). If you would like to receive email notifications when I post, check out the "yes" button at the bottom... READ MORE