Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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SPY Holds Uptrend, IWM Still Lags, UUP Breaks Out and Oil Trends Lower

SPY Holds Uptrend, IWM Still Lags, UUP Breaks Out and Oil Trends Lower

The S&P 500 finished the week with a gain, but was hit with selling pressure in the final hour on Friday. For the week, the index surged on Monday and then traded flat from Tuesday to Friday. Small-caps led Friday's pullback as the Russell 2000 iShares...   READ MORE 

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SPY Leads with New High, TLT Firms in Oversold Territory and UUP Holds Breakout

SPY Leads with New High, TLT Firms in Oversold Territory and UUP Holds Breakout

The S&P 500 edged higher on Thursday, but market action was mixed overall. QQQ and SPY closed slightly higher, while IWM closed slightly lower. Seven of the nine sector SPDRs were up with energy, industrials and technology leading the way. XLI got a nice bounce from GE, which...   READ MORE 

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IWM Starts to Lead, RYH Leads Sectors and UUP Holds Breakout

IWM Starts to Lead, RYH Leads Sectors and UUP Holds Breakout

Stocks did the old pop and drop as the S&P 500 surged to 2135 after the Fed minutes and then plunged back to its starting point (2125). The index ended the day unchanged and nothing has changed regarding the trend. Yesterday's pop and drop was just...   READ MORE 

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What Matters Most for the S&P 500?

What Matters Most for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 is in the midst of one of the strongest and most consistent trends ever. The chart below shows the S&P 500 twice. The top window shows the index with a 7% Zigzag indicator in pink and the bottom window shows a 10% Zigzag....   READ MORE 

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TLT Becomes More Oversold, UUP Breaks Out, GLD Fails First Test

TLT Becomes More Oversold, UUP Breaks Out, GLD Fails First Test

Stocks meandered on Tuesday with the S&P 500 trading on either side of 2130 the entire day. The ETF fell below 2130 in the afternoon and closed at 2127 (-.06%). The sectors were mostly lower with energy leading the decline. The Finance SPDR (XLF) was the strongest...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Start to Lead as Dollar Bounces, SPY Hits New High, GLD Holds Breakout and USO Stalls

Small-Caps Start to Lead as Dollar Bounces, SPY Hits New High, GLD Holds Breakout and USO Stalls

Stocks continued higher with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials recording new all time highs. They were not the leaders though. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) led and was the only major index ETF to gain over 1% on the day. Seven of the nine sector SPDRs finished...   READ MORE 

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Dow Joins S&P 500 with New High

Dow Joins S&P 500 with New High

The S&P 500 hit a new high last week and the Dow Industrials followed suit with a new high this week. Overall, the Dow broke triangle resistance with a surge on Thursday and this breakout signals a continuation of the current uptrend. Broken resistance turns first support to...   READ MORE 

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EW Industrials Leads Sector Surge - SPY Hits New High

EW Industrials Leads Sector Surge - SPY Hits New High

It was a pretty wild week for stocks. The S&P 500 started weak with a 25 point decline and dip below 2090. This dip did not last long as the index surged back above 2115 on Thursday and hit an all time high on Friday. Yes, an all...   READ MORE 

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Weakening Dollar Boosts Large-cap Stocks

Weakening Dollar Boosts Large-cap Stocks

The falling Dollar is boosting large-caps and they are outperforming small-caps. This makes sense because large-caps are typically multinational companies that derive a good portion of their revenue abroad. The Financial Times estimates that companies in the S&P 500 generate around 40% of their revenues abroad. These foreign...   READ MORE 

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SPY Leads, IWM Falls Short and GLD Gets Breakout

SPY Leads, IWM Falls Short and GLD Gets Breakout

The S&P 500 opened strong and finished strong, and Thursday's close above 2120 was a new closing high for the index. The index has yet to hit an intraday high, but the trends are up and new intraday highs should follow. The rally was pretty broad-based,...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 14-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 14-May-15

The S&P 500 did just the opposite of Tuesday. The index opened weak on Tuesday, rebounded and then traded flat. On Wednesday, the index opened strong, immediately fell back and then traded flat. This is par for the course because it has been swinging above/below 2100 the...   READ MORE 

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Paccar Holds Big Breakout and Goes for Another

Paccar Holds Big Breakout and Goes for Another

Paccar (PCAR) sports a bullish looking chart with two breakouts in as many months. The stock surged from October to December and then corrected with a decline that retraced 62%. After three bounces off the 62% retracement area, the stock broke out with a surge in mid-April. This breakout ended...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 13-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 13-May-15

You got to give the bulls credit on Tuesday. The S&P 500 opened weak with a 20 point decline and move below 2090. This decline wiped out Friday's gain and made the bulls look weak. Instead of continuing lower though, the index immediately firmed and bounced...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 12-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 12-May-15

The S&P 500 surged on Friday morning, traded flat the rest of the day and then worked its way lower on Monday. The overall loss (.50%) was modest and this could be just a correction after the Friday surge. The sectors were mostly lower with energy leading the...   READ MORE 

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Energy SPDR Fails at Long-term Moving Average

Energy SPDR Fails at Long-term Moving Average

The Energy SPDR (XLE) is in a long-term downtrend and it looks like the short-term uptrend reversed over the last few days. The chart below shows XLE failing at the falling 200-day moving average with a bearish engulfing last week and breaking below short-term support at 81. The ETF bounced...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Surge with Uninspiring Breadth - GLD Forms Two Flags

Stocks Surge with Uninspiring Breadth - GLD Forms Two Flags

Stocks surged on Friday as the S&P 500 opened around 2113 and closed around 2116. Even though the index held the opening surge, there was not much movement after the surge (+3 points). The major index ETFs closed higher, but small-caps and mid-caps lagged. MDY and IWM were...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 08-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 08-May-15

Stocks bounced and the major index ETFs closed modestly higher. Eight of the nine sector SPDRs were up. Energy fell because oil was down sharply. The decline in oil boosted the Airline ETF (JETS) and this helped the Transport iShares (IYT) to a 1.11% gain. Commodities were down pretty...   READ MORE 

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BroadCom Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern

BroadCom Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern

It has been a rough month for stocks overall, but Broadcom (BRCM) is bucking the selling pressure and challenging resistance. There are two bullish continuation patterns possible on this chart. First, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern extends back to early March. Second, the right two-thirds of the pattern looks like a...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 07-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 07-May-15

Stocks closed lower again on Wednesday, but a late afternoon bounce pushed the major index ETFs off their lows. IWM and MDY actually closed with small gains as small and mid-caps held up well on Wednesday. QQQ and SPY closed fractionally lower. The Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) led the...   READ MORE 

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Merck Holds Up and Outperforms its Sector

Merck Holds Up and Outperforms its Sector

Stocks have been under pressure the last eight days with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) down around 2% from its late April high and the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) down around 4% from this high. At times like this, it is good to look around and see what is...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 06-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 06-May-15

Stocks were hit with broad selling pressure on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the major index ETFs lower. All sectors were down with utilities getting hammered. Looks like XLU finally caught on to the rise in rates and followed the REIT iShares (IYR) lower. Techs were hit...   READ MORE 

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A Rough Ride for Utilities

A Rough Ride for Utilities

The chart below shows the Sector MarketCarpet over the last five days (29-Apr to 5-May) and utility stocks are the weakest. The average stock in the sector is down over 2% during this timeframe, which is why the box is dark red. Healthcare and technology stocks also came under selling...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 05-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 05-May-15

Stocks closed modestly higher on Monday with the technology, healthcare and utilities sectors leading the way. It is most interesting to see utilities higher because the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) is up sharply over the last two weeks. Utilities have been negatively correlated to Treasury yields the last few months,...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 04-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 04-May-15

Stocks fell from Monday to Thursday and then surged on Friday with a strong open and strong close. QQQ and large-caps led the bounce, while IWM and small-caps lagged with smaller gains. The consumer discretionary, technology, industrials and materials sectors led with 1+ percent advances. The Home Construction iShares (ITB)...   READ MORE 

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The Noose Tightens for the Finance SPDR

The Noose Tightens for the Finance SPDR

The Finance SPDR (XLF) has become the most boring of the nine sector SPDRs over the last five weeks. Boring today does not mean it will be boring tomorrow though. The chart below shows the Finance SPDR (XLF) surging to new highs in December, bouncing around in January-February and then...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 01-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 01-May-15

Stocks started the day weak and finished weak. The S&P 500 plunged below 2095 on the open, chopped around and then dipped below 2090 in the afternoon. Small-caps led the way lower as IWM lost over 2%. All sectors were down with healthcare and technology leading the way....   READ MORE 

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Three Key Groups Lagging in April

Three Key Groups Lagging in April

The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend and hit a new high on Monday, but some key groups are showing signs of selling pressure in April. The PerfChart below shows month-to-date performance for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), the Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP)...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 30-Apr-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 30-Apr-15

Stocks were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday with small-caps leading the way. IWM and IJR lost around 1.1% on the day and have been underperforming since early April. Eight of the nine sectors were down with consumer discretionary, consumer staples and healthcare leading lower. The Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend Analysis 29-Apr-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 29-Apr-15

It was pop and drop on Monday, and then drop and pop on Tuesday. Welcome to the week featuring the Fed policy statement on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. Trading could remain choppy the next few days as these events become reality. Stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday...   READ MORE 

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IWM Lags and Tests Support, GLD Surges

IWM Lags and Tests Support, GLD Surges

Stocks got the old pop and drop on Monday as the S&P 500 surged to a new high in the morning and then worked its way lower the rest of the day. The index closed with a modest loss of .41%. IWM led the way lower with a...   READ MORE 

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GLD Breaks Down, TLT Tests Break and IWM Lags

GLD Breaks Down, TLT Tests Break and IWM Lags

It was all about big techs on Friday as QQQ surged over 1%. The rest of the market was mixed as IWM edged lower and SPY edged higher. Strength in Amazon (+14%) lifted the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and strength in Microsoft (+10.5%) lifted the Technology SPDR (XLK). The...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Hit New Highs - IWM Lags

SPY and QQQ Hit New Highs - IWM Lags

Stocks put in another modest performance with the major index ETFs gaining less than a half percent. Well, the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) did gain .60% to lead, but this was the exception. The sectors were mostly higher with energy and technology leading the way. The Home Construction...   READ MORE 

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Techs Lead and Staples Lag on Market Carpet

Techs Lead and Staples Lag on Market Carpet

The image below shows the Sector MarketCarpet at "sector" level, which means we are seeing solid boxes for each of the nine sectors. There is a table on the left that ranks sector performance and this MarketCarpet shows performance for the current week (so far). The technology sector...   READ MORE 

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SPY Hits Range Resistance, TLT and GLD Break Down

SPY Hits Range Resistance, TLT and GLD Break Down

Stocks dipped on the open, but quickly caught a bid and moved higher for most of the day. The final gains, however, were modest as QQQ, IWM, SPY and DIA gained around a half percent. The Finance SPDR and the Technology SPDR led the way higher. The consumer discretionary sector...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Holds Gap and Starts to Lead

QQQ Holds Gap and Starts to Lead

Stocks drifted on Tuesday with a slight downward bias as IWM and SPY closed fractionally lower. QQQ bucked the selling pressure with a modest gain. The sectors were mixed. The healthcare sector led the gainers, while the energy sector led the losers. The consumer discretionary sector finished with a small...   READ MORE 

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Activision Flies the Flag at Half-Mast

Activision Flies the Flag at Half-Mast

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) sports a bullish continuation pattern and improving momentum. The stock gapped up in mid January and broke out in early February. ATVI was overbought after a 25% surge and worked off these overbought conditions with an extended flag. I say extended because eight weeks is getting long...   READ MORE 

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SPY Gaps Back Up, TLT and GLD Stall

SPY Gaps Back Up, TLT and GLD Stall

Stocks surged on Monday and recovered most of Friday's losses. The S&P 500 moved back above 2100 in the first hour (+1%) and then consolidated the rest of the day. The consumer discretionary, technology, industrials and utilities sectors led with 1+ percent gains. Internet, software, semiconductor...   READ MORE 

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Apple Gets a Volatility Squeeze

Apple Gets a Volatility Squeeze

Trading in Apple has turned dull over the last six weeks as the stock moves in a tightening consolidation. The volatility contraction can be seen by the Bollinger Bands, which contracted to their narrowest since October. Notice that BandWidth moved below 5%. Also notice that the October squeeze featured a...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Reverse Upswings - TLT Surges

SPY and QQQ Reverse Upswings - TLT Surges

Stocks meandered from Monday to Thursday and then got pummeled on Friday. There were two bouts of selling pressure that lasted less than two hours in total. The S&P 500 declined sharply on the open (45 minutes), firmed and then fell another ten points in the early afternoon...   READ MORE 

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Separating the Short Term Island from the Long Term Trend

Separating the Short Term Island from the Long Term Trend

With a gap up and a gap down, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) formed an island reversal over the last four days. This is short-term bearish, but not enough to affect the longer trend, which is still up. To emphasize the short-term nature of this reversal, I am...   READ MORE