Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

MEMBERS ONLY

Short-Term Trend Analysis 07-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 07-May-15

Stocks closed lower again on Wednesday, but a late afternoon bounce pushed the major index ETFs off their lows. IWM and MDY actually closed with small gains as small and mid-caps held up well on Wednesday. QQQ and SPY closed fractionally lower. The Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) led the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Merck Holds Up and Outperforms its Sector

Merck Holds Up and Outperforms its Sector

Stocks have been under pressure the last eight days with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) down around 2% from its late April high and the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) down around 4% from this high. At times like this, it is good to look around and see what is...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Short-Term Trend Analysis 06-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 06-May-15

Stocks were hit with broad selling pressure on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the major index ETFs lower. All sectors were down with utilities getting hammered. Looks like XLU finally caught on to the rise in rates and followed the REIT iShares (IYR) lower. Techs were hit...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

A Rough Ride for Utilities

A Rough Ride for Utilities

The chart below shows the Sector MarketCarpet over the last five days (29-Apr to 5-May) and utility stocks are the weakest. The average stock in the sector is down over 2% during this timeframe, which is why the box is dark red. Healthcare and technology stocks also came under selling...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Short-Term Trend Analysis 05-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 05-May-15

Stocks closed modestly higher on Monday with the technology, healthcare and utilities sectors leading the way. It is most interesting to see utilities higher because the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) is up sharply over the last two weeks. Utilities have been negatively correlated to Treasury yields the last few months,...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Short-Term Trend Analysis 04-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 04-May-15

Stocks fell from Monday to Thursday and then surged on Friday with a strong open and strong close. QQQ and large-caps led the bounce, while IWM and small-caps lagged with smaller gains. The consumer discretionary, technology, industrials and materials sectors led with 1+ percent advances. The Home Construction iShares (ITB)...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

The Noose Tightens for the Finance SPDR

The Noose Tightens for the Finance SPDR

The Finance SPDR (XLF) has become the most boring of the nine sector SPDRs over the last five weeks. Boring today does not mean it will be boring tomorrow though. The chart below shows the Finance SPDR (XLF) surging to new highs in December, bouncing around in January-February and then...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Short-Term Trend Analysis 01-May-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 01-May-15

Stocks started the day weak and finished weak. The S&P 500 plunged below 2095 on the open, chopped around and then dipped below 2090 in the afternoon. Small-caps led the way lower as IWM lost over 2%. All sectors were down with healthcare and technology leading the way....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Three Key Groups Lagging in April

Three Key Groups Lagging in April

The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend and hit a new high on Monday, but some key groups are showing signs of selling pressure in April. The PerfChart below shows month-to-date performance for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), the Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP)...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Short-Term Trend Analysis 30-Apr-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 30-Apr-15

Stocks were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday with small-caps leading the way. IWM and IJR lost around 1.1% on the day and have been underperforming since early April. Eight of the nine sectors were down with consumer discretionary, consumer staples and healthcare leading lower. The Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Short-Term Trend Analysis 29-Apr-15

Short-Term Trend Analysis 29-Apr-15

It was pop and drop on Monday, and then drop and pop on Tuesday. Welcome to the week featuring the Fed policy statement on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. Trading could remain choppy the next few days as these events become reality. Stocks were mostly higher on Tuesday...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

IWM Lags and Tests Support, GLD Surges

IWM Lags and Tests Support, GLD Surges

Stocks got the old pop and drop on Monday as the S&P 500 surged to a new high in the morning and then worked its way lower the rest of the day. The index closed with a modest loss of .41%. IWM led the way lower with a...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GLD Breaks Down, TLT Tests Break and IWM Lags

GLD Breaks Down, TLT Tests Break and IWM Lags

It was all about big techs on Friday as QQQ surged over 1%. The rest of the market was mixed as IWM edged lower and SPY edged higher. Strength in Amazon (+14%) lifted the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and strength in Microsoft (+10.5%) lifted the Technology SPDR (XLK). The...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY and QQQ Hit New Highs - IWM Lags

SPY and QQQ Hit New Highs - IWM Lags

Stocks put in another modest performance with the major index ETFs gaining less than a half percent. Well, the S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) did gain .60% to lead, but this was the exception. The sectors were mostly higher with energy and technology leading the way. The Home Construction...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Techs Lead and Staples Lag on Market Carpet

Techs Lead and Staples Lag on Market Carpet

The image below shows the Sector MarketCarpet at "sector" level, which means we are seeing solid boxes for each of the nine sectors. There is a table on the left that ranks sector performance and this MarketCarpet shows performance for the current week (so far). The technology sector...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY Hits Range Resistance, TLT and GLD Break Down

SPY Hits Range Resistance, TLT and GLD Break Down

Stocks dipped on the open, but quickly caught a bid and moved higher for most of the day. The final gains, however, were modest as QQQ, IWM, SPY and DIA gained around a half percent. The Finance SPDR and the Technology SPDR led the way higher. The consumer discretionary sector...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

QQQ Holds Gap and Starts to Lead

QQQ Holds Gap and Starts to Lead

Stocks drifted on Tuesday with a slight downward bias as IWM and SPY closed fractionally lower. QQQ bucked the selling pressure with a modest gain. The sectors were mixed. The healthcare sector led the gainers, while the energy sector led the losers. The consumer discretionary sector finished with a small...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Activision Flies the Flag at Half-Mast

Activision Flies the Flag at Half-Mast

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) sports a bullish continuation pattern and improving momentum. The stock gapped up in mid January and broke out in early February. ATVI was overbought after a 25% surge and worked off these overbought conditions with an extended flag. I say extended because eight weeks is getting long...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY Gaps Back Up, TLT and GLD Stall

SPY Gaps Back Up, TLT and GLD Stall

Stocks surged on Monday and recovered most of Friday's losses. The S&P 500 moved back above 2100 in the first hour (+1%) and then consolidated the rest of the day. The consumer discretionary, technology, industrials and utilities sectors led with 1+ percent gains. Internet, software, semiconductor...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Apple Gets a Volatility Squeeze

Apple Gets a Volatility Squeeze

Trading in Apple has turned dull over the last six weeks as the stock moves in a tightening consolidation. The volatility contraction can be seen by the Bollinger Bands, which contracted to their narrowest since October. Notice that BandWidth moved below 5%. Also notice that the October squeeze featured a...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY and QQQ Reverse Upswings - TLT Surges

SPY and QQQ Reverse Upswings - TLT Surges

Stocks meandered from Monday to Thursday and then got pummeled on Friday. There were two bouts of selling pressure that lasted less than two hours in total. The S&P 500 declined sharply on the open (45 minutes), firmed and then fell another ten points in the early afternoon...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Separating the Short Term Island from the Long Term Trend

Separating the Short Term Island from the Long Term Trend

With a gap up and a gap down, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) formed an island reversal over the last four days. This is short-term bearish, but not enough to affect the longer trend, which is still up. To emphasize the short-term nature of this reversal, I am...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Salesforce.com Winds up for the Pitch

Salesforce.com Winds up for the Pitch

After surging to new highs in February, Salesforce.com moved into a consolidation as volatility contracted. Notice that the Bollinger Bands narrowed over the last few weeks the BandWidth moved to its lowest level since mid October. Even though a volatility contraction does not give us directional clues, the stock...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

TLT Tests Key Support - GLD Stalls Near Support

TLT Tests Key Support - GLD Stalls Near Support

Stocks meandered on Thursday as the S&P 500 started negative, moved into positive territory and then finished slightly negative. The major index ETFs ended mixed with fractional gains in DIA and the Russell MicroCap iShares (IWC), but fractional losses in QQQ and IWM. The sectors were also mixed...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

IWM Hits New High - TLT Toys with Support

IWM Hits New High - TLT Toys with Support

Stocks gained ground on Wednesday with the major index ETFs posting modest gains. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) led the way with a .70% gain and a new high. The Energy SPDR (+2.4%), Materials SPDR (+1%) and Technology SPDR (.9%) led the sector SPDRs. The tech sector got a...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Tightening Support for SPY and QQQ - GLD Breaks Trend Line

Tightening Support for SPY and QQQ - GLD Breaks Trend Line

Stocks finished the day mixed with not a lot going on in the market. QQQ and IWM edged lower, while DIA and SPY edged higher. And I do mean "edged" because the gains and losses were minimal. Energy was the stand out performer in an otherwise lackluster day....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY Backs off Range Resistance - TLT Tests Support

SPY Backs off Range Resistance - TLT Tests Support

Stocks did the old pop and drop on Monday. The S&P 500 surged above 2105 on the open, peaked in the first hour and worked its way to the 2092 level by the close. It was a rather orderly decline. Small-caps bucked the selling pressure as IWM finished...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Techs and Large-Caps Take the Lead in April

Techs and Large-Caps Take the Lead in April

The performance pecking order changed in April as large-caps and techs moved from under performers to out performers. Even though small-caps and mid-caps are underperforming so far in April, they are still outperforming on a longer timeframe (since early February). The PerfChart below shows month-to-date performance for nine major index...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

IWM Nears March High - USO and GLD Hold Upswings

IWM Nears March High - USO and GLD Hold Upswings

Stocks finished strong on Friday and ended the week with modest gains. QQQ led the way with a 2.5% advance and is also the strongest for April. IWM and MDY lagged because they gained less than 1%. Industrials, energy, healthcare and technology led the sectors last week. Healthcare was...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY and QQQ Close Strong - UUP Gets a Breakout

SPY and QQQ Close Strong - UUP Gets a Breakout

Stocks started weak, but quickly found their footing and moved higher. SPY and QQQ led and closed at their highest levels of the month. Small-caps lagged as IWM and IJR closed slightly lower. Eight of the nine sectors were up with the Energy SPDR (XLE) as the only standout performer...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Baidu Plays Catch Up with an Island Reversal

Baidu Plays Catch Up with an Island Reversal

Julius de Kempenaer noted the surge in Chinese stocks in his most recent RRG post and Tom Bowley noted the breakout in SouFun in a blog post on Wednesday. I will add a third China-related post to the mix by pointing out Baidu. Chinese stocks have been on a tear...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

EW Finance Forms Bear Flag - SPY and QQQ Hit Resistance

EW Finance Forms Bear Flag - SPY and QQQ Hit Resistance

Stocks meandered all day and finished slightly higher. QQQ (+.79%) and IWM (+86%) led the bounce with modest gains. SPY (+.34%) and DIA (+.18%) lagged. Seven of the nine sector SPDRs were up, but the gains and losses were small. Biotechs led the industry group ETFs as the Biotech SPDR...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY Fails at Prior High - UUP Surges off Retracement

SPY Fails at Prior High - UUP Surges off Retracement

Stocks surged on Monday morning and plunged on Tuesday afternoon. The S&P 500 is still up over the last two days, but Tuesday's final hour sell off could foreshadow a tougher trading environment ahead. Small-caps and mid-caps led the selloff as IWM lost .64% and MDY...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Lazard Leaves MS and GS in the Dust

Lazard Leaves MS and GS in the Dust

Lazard (LAZ) has left Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) in the dust by outperforming these two behemoths since early February. The SharpChart below shows year-to-date performance for these three stocks and the Finance SPDR (XLF). GS is near break even for the year, MS is down over 6%...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Stocks Bounce, but with Uninspiring Breadth

Stocks Bounce, but with Uninspiring Breadth

Note that I will be doing a webinar today at 1PM ET (Tuesday, April 7th). I will cover market breadth, gold, oil, the dollar and some stock setups. Click here to register. Stocks shrugged off the miss in non-farm payrolls on Friday and surged in early trading on Monday. The...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Stocks Sink as Bonds Surge - GLD and USO Tests Resistance

Stocks Sink as Bonds Surge - GLD and USO Tests Resistance

It was a rather strange week for stocks. DIA and SPY were up around .50% as of Thursday's close, but Friday's decline in stock futures wiped out this small gain and they ended the week slightly negative - for all intents and purposes. IWM was up...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Why is Price Action So Important?

Why is Price Action So Important?

Technical analysis cuts to the chase by showing us the only thing that matters: price. Even those using fundamental analysis can benefit from technical analysis because we only make money when prices move in the desired direction. Here are four ways technical analysis can improve your investment returns. 1. All...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

10-yr Yields, the Hockey Stick and the Dollar

10-yr Yields, the Hockey Stick and the Dollar

The Dollar Index has been on a tear the last four months as the spread between the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($UST10Y) and German 10-YR Bund Yield ($DET10Y) widened to historic levels. The chart below shows 10-yr yields for four countries in the top window. US and UK yields are by...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

TLT Surges off Support - GLD Bounces to Resistance

TLT Surges off Support - GLD Bounces to Resistance

Stocks were lower most of the day, but rallied in the final fifteen minutes to cut their losses. SPY closed with a small loss and IWM closed with a fractional gain. The sector SPDRs did not move much either. Healthcare was the big loser with a 1% decline. Utilities bucked...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

XLY Breadth Indicator Forms Bearish Divergence

XLY Breadth Indicator Forms Bearish Divergence

The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is perhaps the single most important sector in the stock market because it is the most economically sensitive sector. Industry groups in this sector include retail, restaurants, autos, media and home construction. XLY is weighted by market cap and reflects the performance of the large-caps...   READ MORE