Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks started the day with some selling pressure, but firmed around 11AM and moved steadily higher the rest of the day. Small-caps and micro-caps led the way as IWM and IWC gained 1.38% and 1.48%, respectively. The consumer discretionary sector led the SPDRs, the equal-weight sectors and the...   READ MORE 

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Gaps Hold - GLD Triangulates - Oil Breaks Down

Gaps Hold - GLD Triangulates - Oil Breaks Down

Stocks took it on the chin again on Wednesday with the major index ETFs losing over 1%. Well, QQQ managed a 0.5% loss because Apple and Facebook gained. Nevertheless, 89 out of the 100 stocks in QQQ declined and selling pressure was pretty lopsided. Energy-related stocks were hammered as...   READ MORE 

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Bond Market Says Lower Rates Ahead

Bond Market Says Lower Rates Ahead

Another Fed statement has come and gone, and Treasury bonds simply continue to march higher. The chart below shows the 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF (IEF) hitting yet another 52-week high today with a big move above 110. The indicator window shows the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) moving below 1.75%...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Risk Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Risk Analysis

Stocks continued their volatile ways as SPY and QQQ fell sharply on the open, rebounded and then sold off in the final hour. Microsoft and Durable Goods got most of the blame. The strong Dollar is also affecting earnings in large-caps. Small-caps held up quite well as IWM fell just...   READ MORE 

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Retail SPDR Holds Key Area and Shows Relative Strength

Retail SPDR Holds Key Area and Shows Relative Strength

The chart below shows the Retail SPDR (XRT) bouncing off a support zone and remaining in an uptrend. For relative strength, the first indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) above 90, which means XRT is in the top 10% of our ETF universe. The second window shows the...   READ MORE 

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MDY and IWM Start to Lead - TLT Stalls Ahead of Fed

MDY and IWM Start to Lead - TLT Stalls Ahead of Fed

Stocks started the day weak, but quickly found their footing and moved higher the rest of the day. Despite this recovery, QQQ ended the day with a fractional loss and SPY closed with a fractional gain. Small-caps and mid-caps were another story as IWM gained 1% and MDY led with...   READ MORE 

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Short-term Trend Analysis for QQQ, GLD, TLT, USO and More

Short-term Trend Analysis for QQQ, GLD, TLT, USO and More

Stocks took a breather on Friday, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) bucked the selling pressure by producing small gains to end the week. Overall, QQQ led the market last week with a 3.41% gain and the Technology SPDR (XLK) led the sector...   READ MORE 

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IWM Follows with a Breakout - USO Forms Another Consolidation

IWM Follows with a Breakout - USO Forms Another Consolidation

Stocks moved sharply higher on Thursday with IWM getting the biggest gain among the major index ETFs. Note that IWM and IJR were both up over 2%. Even though these two show relative weakness in January, they typically outperform during a broad market move. The Finance SPDR (XLF) sprang to...   READ MORE 

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Blackrock Leads Assets Managers Group Higher

Blackrock Leads Assets Managers Group Higher

The finance sector came to life on Thursday with leadership from banks ($DJUSBK) and asset managers ($DJUSAG). The chart below shows asset manager Blackrock holding its breakout and surging off support with a big move above 355. Notice that the stock shows a little more "chart" strength than...   READ MORE 

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QQQ and SPY Perk Up, but IWM Shows Relative Weakness

QQQ and SPY Perk Up, but IWM Shows Relative Weakness

Stocks managed to claw out some gains with large-caps leading the way. SPY and QQQ gained around a half percent. Small-caps were weak as IWM fell .32%. The gains and losses were small and not that significant. Energy, materials and utilities led the market higher. This is not the crew...   READ MORE 

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Six Semiconductor Stocks Lead on SCTR MarketCarpet

Six Semiconductor Stocks Lead on SCTR MarketCarpet

The image below comes from a MarketCarpet for the Nasdaq 100. It is set to show the biggest changes in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The biggest gainers have dark green boxes and the biggest losers have dark red boxes. Notice that seven green boxes come from the semiconductor group...   READ MORE 

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Short-term Trend Analysis for QQQ, GLD, TLT, UUP and More

Short-term Trend Analysis for QQQ, GLD, TLT, UUP and More

The technology sector came to life with a modest gain on Tuesday, but the consumer discretionary and finance sectors countered with declines. Relative weakness in finance is getting to be a problem for the overall market and may not clear up as long as Treasury yields fall. The consumer discretionary...   READ MORE 

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Breadth, Risk Indicators and Short-Term Trend Analysis

Breadth, Risk Indicators and Short-Term Trend Analysis

SPY, QQQ and IWM broke down last week, but rebounded sharply on Friday. Despite this rebound, the major index ETFs closed down for the week. IWM led Friday with a 1.63% advance and small-caps continue to hold up well overall. Energy led the sectors higher as XLE got a...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 Does Battle with a Big Round Number

S&P 500 Does Battle with a Big Round Number

Even though big round numbers should not have any technical significance, it is hard to argue with the magnetic pull of 2000 on the S&P 500. The index first neared 2000 when it broke above 1975 in July. After a pullback to the 1900 area in early August,...   READ MORE 

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Breadth, Risk Indicators and Short-Term Trend Analysis

Breadth, Risk Indicators and Short-Term Trend Analysis

Stocks tried to bounce on Thursday, but selling pressure soon took over and the major index ETFs closed with losses again. Small-caps and large techs led the way as IWM fell 1.69% and QQQ declined 1.30%. Eight of nine sectors were down with consumer discretionary, technology, finance, energy...   READ MORE 

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Consumer Discretionary Sector Turns Deep Red, But Utilities See Green

Consumer Discretionary Sector Turns Deep Red, But Utilities See Green

The Sector MarketCarpet shows serious selling pressure in the consumer discretionary (cyclical), energy and technology sectors on Thursday because they are the deepest red. In contrast, the utilities sector is bright green because utility stocks advanced as money sought yield. The consumer staples sector also attracted some buying interest because...   READ MORE 

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Breadth, Risk Indicators and Short-Term Trend Analysis

Breadth, Risk Indicators and Short-Term Trend Analysis

Stocks started the day under selling pressure as the major index ETFs gapped down on the open. Selling pressure continued into the afternoon, but buyers stepped in around 2PM and pushed stocks off their lows. This bounce was too little too late because SPY did not fill its opening gap....   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Give Up their Gaps - IWM Shows Relative Strength

SPY and QQQ Give Up their Gaps - IWM Shows Relative Strength

Stocks surged in early trading, worked their way lower in mid morning and then plunged after lunch. With a small rebound in the final hour, the net losses were reduced and the major index ETFs closed fractionally lower. The Russell 2000 held up the best and closed fractionally higher. Energy,...   READ MORE 

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SPY and IWM Hit a Moment-of-Truth - TLT Hits New High

SPY and IWM Hit a Moment-of-Truth - TLT Hits New High

Stocks opened weak with a sharp decline in the first 30 minutes and then traded flat the rest of the day. Even though stocks managed to firm after early weakness, buyers held back and the major index ETFs closed with modest losses. Oil got the blame again as crude fell...   READ MORE 

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Sector PerfChart Shows A Defensive Start to 2015

Sector PerfChart Shows A Defensive Start to 2015

The sector PerfChart shows year-to-date performance for the nine sector SPDRs and SPY. Three sectors are up, six are down and SPY is down fractionally. The HealthCare SPDR (XLV) was the second best performing sector in 2014 and it is the best performing sector so far this year. The Energy...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Hold Their Gaps - GLD Breaks Flag Trendline

SPY and QQQ Hold Their Gaps - GLD Breaks Flag Trendline

It was a pretty wild week as stocks plunged Monday-Tuesday, surged Wednesday-Thursday and fell back on Friday. After all the pushing and shoving, the major index ETFs ended with small losses for the week. Well, IWM lost 1.14%, which is a modest loss. Energy, industrials and finance weighed on...   READ MORE 

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Microsoft Forms Second Candlestick Reversal in Four Weeks

Microsoft Forms Second Candlestick Reversal in Four Weeks

Microsoft (MSFT) sprang to life with a harami on Tuesday-Wednesday and a gap up on Thursday. This gap confirmed the harami and should be considered bullish as long as it holds. A move back below 46 would fill the gap and negate this reversal. Note that the long-term trend is...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breaks out of Raff Channel - GLD Forms Small Flag

SPY Breaks out of Raff Channel - GLD Forms Small Flag

It is just like mid December as SPY, IWM and QQQ fell sharply and then suddenly reversed with a two-day surge. As with mid December, traders not getting in before the gap are now stuck wondering how to play this reversal, especially with the employment report on deck this morning....   READ MORE 

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Oversold Bounce Materializes, but Short-Term Downtrends Remain

Oversold Bounce Materializes, but Short-Term Downtrends Remain

Stocks finally got an oversold bounce and even closed strong. Most of the bounce occurred with a morning pop, but SPY, IWM and QQQ managed to add to these early gains. In particular, IWM got a late surge and closed near the high of the day. SPY and QQQ closed...   READ MORE 

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SCTR Surges for Molson Coors

SCTR Surges for Molson Coors

StockCharts users can view the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) tables on the home page and even focus on the big movers by clicking the "top up" tab. I noticed Molson Coors (TAP) with a big move and interesting chart. The stock, which is part of the consumer staples...   READ MORE 

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Breadth Indicators Hit Extremes on Both Sides

Breadth Indicators Hit Extremes on Both Sides

Stocks took it on the chin again with small-caps leading the way lower. IWM fell 1.73%, QQQ lost 1.34% and SPY declined .94%. All three are down over 4% the last five days and short-term oversold. It was clearly a risk off day as the 20+ YR T-Bond...   READ MORE 

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IWM Shows Relative Strength, but QQQ Shows Relative Weakness

IWM Shows Relative Strength, but QQQ Shows Relative Weakness

Stocks ended the year weak and started the year weak with Greece and oil getting most of the blame. Light Crude fell below $50 and energy stocks got hammered. European stocks plunged on fears of a Greek exit, and Japan followed suit today with a 3% decline. I am not...   READ MORE 

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IWM Tests Top of Support Zone - GLD Turns Volatile

IWM Tests Top of Support Zone - GLD Turns Volatile

Stocks got the Santa Claus rally, but it fizzled after Christmas and selling pressure took hold over the last three trading days. After a big advance from 17 to 29 December, the stock market was entitled to a pullback. The major index ETFs are now trading in big support zones...   READ MORE 

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Russell 2000 Survives Bollinger Band Head Fake

Russell 2000 Survives Bollinger Band Head Fake

A month ago in ChartWatchers I wrote about the bullish seasonal pattern for small-caps and featured a big flag pattern on the chart for the Russell 2000 ETF. Trading turned volatile in mid December, but the bullish seasonal pattern held up and the Santa Claus rally ultimately materialized. The Russell...   READ MORE 

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Home Construction and Retail Finish the Year Strong

Home Construction and Retail Finish the Year Strong

The S&P 500 took a dip on the last trading day of 2014, but several home construction and retail stocks bucked the selling pressure. Chartists can easily separate the winners and losers using the Sector Market Carpet. The image below focuses on the cyclicals (consumer discretionary) sector and...   READ MORE 

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FLEX Forms Big Continuation Pattern

FLEX Forms Big Continuation Pattern

Flextronics (FLEX) hit a 52-week high in June and then formed an extended consolidation that looks like an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. It is not picture perfect, but the "essence" of the pattern is there. There is a prior uptrend, a left shoulder dip, a deeper dip for the...   READ MORE 

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USO Breaks Down Again - TLT Surges off Support

USO Breaks Down Again - TLT Surges off Support

Stocks were mixed on Monday. The Russell 2000 iShares and S&P MidCap SPDR led with modest gains, while the Dow Diamonds and Nasdaq 100 ETF lagged with fractional losses. Consumer staples and technology were weak. Utilities and consumer discretionary were strong. The Utilities SPDR has been on a...   READ MORE 

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Equal-weight S&P 500 Outperforming Cap-weight S&P 500

Equal-weight S&P 500 Outperforming Cap-weight S&P 500

The chart below shows the ratio of the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index to the S&P 500 ($SPXEW:$SPX). Also known as the price relative, this ratio chart compares the performance of the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index to the S&P 500. $SPXEW outperforms...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Outperforming Bonds - GLD Gets Oversold Bounce

Stocks Outperforming Bonds - GLD Gets Oversold Bounce

Stocks continued higher in slow trading last week, which is pretty typical for yearend price action. The existing trend is up and prices extend in the direction of the existing trend, but in a much slower manner. Even though it is hard to read into low-volume price movements during a...   READ MORE 

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Regional Bank SPDR Goes for a Breakout

Regional Bank SPDR Goes for a Breakout

The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) is showing potential with a break above the flag trend line. Notice how the ETF surged and then corrected with the falling flag. This correction alleviated overbought conditions from mid November and the breakout signals a continuation of the prior surge. The indicator window shows...   READ MORE 

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Four AD Lines Hit New Highs - GLD Breaks Down Further

Four AD Lines Hit New Highs - GLD Breaks Down Further

Programming note: I will be taking off the rest of the week and Art's Charts will return on Monday, December 29th. Have a great Christmas holiday! It was a mixed day on Wall Street with QQQ closing fractionally higher and IWM closing fractionally lower. Energy and healthcare led...   READ MORE 

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Three Leading Industry Group ETFs for December

Three Leading Industry Group ETFs for December

December has been one mixed up month. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is down around 1.1%, the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) is up around 2% and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is up .30%. We can also see mixed results when looking at the Performance for 10...   READ MORE 

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MidCap AD Line Leads - GLD Holds Break Down

MidCap AD Line Leads - GLD Holds Break Down

Stocks started the week with selling pressure, but the bulls found their footing on Wednesday and produced a strong two-day surge. The Russell 2000 iShares (+3.65%) and Russell MicroCap iShares (+4.09%) led the charge and both have been outperforming the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) this month....   READ MORE 

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Two Nasdaq 100 Stocks With RS and Bullish Price Action

Two Nasdaq 100 Stocks With RS and Bullish Price Action

Chartists can improve their odds by looking for stocks that show relative strength and bullish price action. It is a two-pronged approach that has stood the test of time. I use relative strength to narrow the field and then look for charts with bullish signals. The first image shows a...   READ MORE 

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QQQ and SPY Gap thru Resistance - TLT Tumbles

QQQ and SPY Gap thru Resistance - TLT Tumbles

Stocks continued higher with a broad advance that lifted most boats - again. The two-day surge in SPY is the biggest since 2011 and the two day decline in TLT is the largest since November 2013. Clearly, money moved out of the Treasury market and found its way into the...   READ MORE