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Small-caps and Two Key Industry Group ETFs Take the Lead
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was another lackluster day, but there were some notable pockets of strength. Small-caps perked up as the Russell 2000 iShares (+.45%) and S&P SmallCap iShares (+.68%) led the major index ETFs. The gains may be incremental, but they were gains and they were the leaders. The SmallCap...
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Oil Citations and Sector Performance are Revealing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The top chart shows sector performance since the beginning of September. The bottom chart, from factset.com, shows the number of times companies in these sectors cited oil in their earnings calls (from 1-Sep to 6-Nov). Oil fell around 10% from mid June to late August and around 20% from...
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A Narrow Range Day Takes Shape - The Coil Tightens for TLT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Trading was rather lackluster on Tuesday as the major index ETFs finished with fractional gains, and I do mean fractional. QQQ gained .31%, SPY rose .10% and IWM advanced .07%. Buying pressure is waning, but we have yet to see any significant selling pressure. Of note, the high-low range for...
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Aroons Cross to Trigger a Signal in Tesla
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Tesla (TSLA) gapped down and fell sharply in early October, but ultimately held support from the July low and rising 200-day moving average. The stock moved higher the last four weeks and surged above the September trend line with a 3+ percent gain on Tuesday. Also notice that Aroon Up...
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Small-Cap AD Line Breaks Sep High - Plus COW, K, TSLA and UA
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The December E-mini S&P 500 (^ESZ14) hit another new high with another incremental step. Since the close above 2000 at the end of October, the gains have been rather incremental and upside momentum has slowed. Is this bearish? Buying pressure may not be as strong as it was...
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Industrials and Healthcare Lead the Big Recovery
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market bottomed in mid October and then surged over the last 18 days. Chartists can find the leaders (and laggards) for this period by setting the PerfChart for 18 days. Simply double click the date tab and enter a number. The PerfChart below shows all nine sectors and...
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Bullish Consolidations form in QQQ and IWM - Noose Tightens for TLT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The December E-mini S&P 500 (^ESZ14) hit a new high intraday, but closed slightly lower and formed a doji on the day. These candlesticks signal indecision, which is caused by a standoff between buying and selling pressure. The current upswing is quite amazing because the emini has been...
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Stocks Price in Positive News, But Bonds Hesitate
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
And now for the employment report. This week's economic reports were positive, the ADP Report was above 200K and initial claims continue to fall. The economic cup is clearly half full and this bodes well for today's employment report. Stocks have perhaps already priced in some...
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Minding the Gap on QQQ
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The London Tube is famous for its automated announcements reminding commuters to "mind the gap" between the train and the platform (don't fall in). QQQ has a gap that we should also mind. Notice how the ETF opened above 101 and closed above 101 the last...
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Market Indicators Pointing Up - Plus AMZN, JJU, BWA, GE, RCI
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday with the major index ETFs posting modest gains. SPY advanced .63% and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) added just .18%. The energy sector rebounded with a big move as oil got a small bounce. Devon (DVN) and EOG Resources (OEG) exceeded their late October...
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New Highs in Key AD Line Affirm Long-term Uptrend
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 AD Line ($SPXADP) confirmed the new high in the S&P 500 by hitting a new high of its own. The chart below shows the AD Line holding its early August low in mid October and surging above its early September high on Friday....
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XLY:XLP Ratio Breaks Down - AD Lines Remain Strong
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were hit with pockets of selling pressure on Tuesday. The consumer discretionary, energy and materials sectors led the way lower. Consumer staples, financials and healthcare held up relatively well. Relative weakness in the consumer discretionary sector caused the XLY:XLP ratio to break down and turn negative for stocks...
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TLT Extends Downtrend - USO Triggers Continuation Signal - DD, LULU and TOL
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Today we will start with a short-term look at the risk on-off dynamics in the stock market right now. Note that I am only referring to the stock market. Oil, gold, the Dollar and the Euro do not fit into this equation right now. I am using five things to...
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Predefined Technical Alerts Say it All - Gold, Oil, Dollar, Stocks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Chartists can get a good idea of market conditions just by looking at the predefined technical alerts page. Today's alerts are at the top and users can view past alerts by scrolling down the page. Today, we can see several major indices and sector ETFs hitting multi-year highs,...
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Stocks Overbought, but Still Strong - USO Extends Consolidation
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Breadth behind the most recent advance was quite strong as the AD Lines for the S&P 500, S&P 1500 and Nasdaq 100 recorded new highs. Of these three, notice that the S&P 500 AD Line held its August low and the Nasdaq 100 AD...
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Array of New Highs Reflects Broad Market Strength
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Not every index and not every sector recorded a new high this week, but several key indexes recorded new highs and the majority of sectors hit new highs. This shows broad market strength that validates the long-term uptrend in stocks. The only negative is that stocks are short-term overbought after...
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Sector Carpet Shows a Preference for Risk
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved sharply higher on Friday with the Technology sector leading and the Utilities sector lagging. As the Market Carpet shows, the average utilities stock is down .05% and the average technology stock is up 1.82%. This shows a preference for higher risk stocks (offense). Notice that the tech...
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QQQ Continues to Lead - USO Remains in a Trading Range
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The major index ETFs notched another gain with the Dow Diamonds (DIA) leading the way (+1.30%). The gains in the other major index ETFs were, however, modest. Stock futures are pointing sharply higher after the Bank of Japan announced another round of quantitative easing. The European Central Bank (ECB)...
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Intel Gaps Down to Lead Semis Lower
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Intel (INTC) weighed on the semiconductor group Thursday with a gap down and high volume decline. The chart below shows the stock reversing near broken support, which turned into resistance. This is classic technical analysis: broken support turns first resistance and broken resistance turns first support....
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Dollar Extends Breakout, Gold Extends Break Down, Plus CSCO, IMAX, MON, PEP and PLCE
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks turned mixed as the Fed nixed quantitative easing. While I do not think this is the reason for mixed trading, the end of QE provides a good excuse for a rest. Stocks went on a tear the last two weeks and the market is entitled to a breather at...
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Never mind QE, the Yield Curve Reflects a Dovish Fed
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The end of QE may be on the table, but the yield curve shows that the Fed remains dovish overall. The image below comes from the Dynamic Yield Curve. Notice that short-term yields are the lowest and the yields rise as the maturities extend. This is a "normal"...
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Small-Cap Sectors Make a Move on the Relative Rotation Graph
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved higher again on Tuesday with small-caps and micro-caps leading the charge. The Russell 2000 iShares gained 2.85% and the Russell MicroCap iShares was up over 3%. Keep in mind that it only takes a small rotation to move the needle for small-caps. The S&P 500...
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Louisiana Pacific Hits the Bearish-Signal-Reversed Scan
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
A failed signal is sometimes as good as a signal. In other words, a failed bearish signal is sometimes just as good as a bullish signal. StockCharts users can find failed P&F signals on the Predefined Scans page. The example below shows LPX with a bearish signal when...
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UUP Holds Breakout, GLD Holds Break Down, Plus BBBY, EXPR, FL and VEEV
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks dipped in early trading as selling pressure hit, but firmed and moved higher in the afternoon. DIA and QQQ closed with fractional gains, while IWM and SPY closed with fractional losses. The sectors were mixed with five up and four days. Energy and materials were slammed. The Oil &...
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GoPro Gaps with Uptick in Volume GPRO
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
GoPro (GPRO) came under pressure last week as a lower high formed and the stock gapped down. Even though the Nasdaq 100 moved higher the last two days, GPRO moved lower and formed three black (filled) candlesticks. With the decline and gap over the last two days, the stock broke...
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AD Line Gets a Break - USO Stalls after Pennant Break
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was another strong week for stocks as the market put in another broad-based rally. Month-to-date, SPY and QQQ are still slightly lower, but IWM is up around 1.5% for October. This suggests that small-caps are showing some upside leadership as we head into November-December. Chart XX shows the...
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New Highs Surge on the S&P 500
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The surge in the S&P 500 over the last six days was accompanied by a surge in new highs the last few days. Notice that Net New Highs exceeded 40 the last three days and new highs exceeded 45 the last three days. There were only two new...
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SPY and QQQ Hit Resistance Zones, but Uptrends Hold
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks put in another bullish performance on Thursday with small-caps leading the way. The Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) led the style ETFs with a 2.11% gain. Seven of the nine sectors were up with industrials leading. Several small-cap sectors made big moves with energy, materials and technology surging...
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P&F Chart Nails it for the S&P 500
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart below shows a long-term Point & Figure chart for the S&P 500. Each box is 10 points and a 30+ point move is needed for a reversal (3 boxes). This chart starts with the rally off the November 2012 low. The blue bullish support line was...
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Dollar Breaks Wedge Trendline - Plus INTC, JPM and WFC
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks came under selling pressure on Wednesday with small-caps and micro-caps leading the way lower. These two led the rebound, but this upside leadership faded over the last five days. Seven of the nine sector SPDRs were down with industrials and energy leading the way. Oil fell over 1% and...
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The Hang Seng Gears Up for a Move
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Protests and weakness in global markets weighed on the Hang Seng Composite ($HSI) in September as the index fell to its prior resistance zone. The index stabilized in October and got a nice bounce on Wednesday. This is an interesting area because it also represents a 50-62% retracement of the...
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SPY Surges to Key Level - TLT Firms Near Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged with broad strength that lifted all boats (except gold miners). Several of the major index ETFs surged over 2%. All nine sector SPDRs were higher, all nine equal-weight sector ETFs were up on the day and all nine small-cap sector ETFs were up. The energy sector led the...
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Homebuilder and Retail ETFs Make Big Relative Moves
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The table below shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) for our ETF universe. This table is sorted by "change" with the biggest gainers at the top. In particular, the SCTR for the Home Construction iShares (ITB) surged 23.5 points and moved above 75 and the SCTR for...
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Small-Caps Continue to Lead - Plus BBBY, GDX, ITB and XRT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Given the IBM miss, I was pretty impressed with market action on Monday. The Dow Diamonds (DIA) had every reason to fill its gap after a weak open, but immediately firmed and closed near the high of the day (and positive for the day). The major index ETFs are holding...
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Microsoft Bounces off Key Retracement
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart below shows Microsoft (MSFT) falling to broken resistance, firming for two days and bouncing over the last two days. Also notice that this bounce occurred at the 62% retracement. Even though the decline looks steep, support held where it should and the stock is above the rising 200-day...
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Stocks Gets an Oversold Bounce - NDX Breadth Improves
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks followed up on Thursday's reversal day with a gap up on Friday. Afternoon selling pressure pushed small-caps and micro-caps into negative territory by the close, but the rest of the major index ETFs closed positive. All nine sector SPDRs closed higher with the Industrials SPDR leading the...
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DIA Forges Island Reversal off Support Zone (video)
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Dow Diamonds (DIA) showed signs of a selling climax last week and forged an island reversal to end the week. First, let's look at the indicators to suggest that we had a selling climax or capitulation of sorts. A selling climax involves a very sharp decline with...
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E-Mini Forms Big Spinning Top - Small-caps Continue to Outperform
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was another volatile day for stocks and the major index ETFs finished mixed. Once again, the Russell 2000 iShares and Russell MicroCap iShares led the way higher with 1+ percent gains. Energy led the sectors higher and got a nice oversold bounce. Eight of the nine small-cap sectors were...
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Hammers, Hollow Reds and Dragonflies Hit the Predefined Scans
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With weakness in early trading and a strong close, a number of bullish candlestick patterns formed on Wednesday. These include hammers and dragonfly doji. There were also hundreds of hollow red candlesticks. These form when the close is above the open, but the close is still below the prior close....
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Small-Cap Breadth Improves - A Blow off Top fo TLT?
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks plunged in early trading and then bounced in the afternoon. After a whole lot of volatility, stocks finished mixed overall. The Russell 2000 iShares and the Russell MicroCap iShares gained over 1% and led the rebound. The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF closed lower on...
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