Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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QQQ Continues to Lead - USO Remains in a Trading Range

QQQ Continues to Lead - USO Remains in a Trading Range

The major index ETFs notched another gain with the Dow Diamonds (DIA) leading the way (+1.30%). The gains in the other major index ETFs were, however, modest. Stock futures are pointing sharply higher after the Bank of Japan announced another round of quantitative easing. The European Central Bank (ECB)...   READ MORE 

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Intel Gaps Down to Lead Semis Lower

Intel Gaps Down to Lead Semis Lower

Intel (INTC) weighed on the semiconductor group Thursday with a gap down and high volume decline. The chart below shows the stock reversing near broken support, which turned into resistance. This is classic technical analysis: broken support turns first resistance and broken resistance turns first support....   READ MORE 

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Dollar Extends Breakout, Gold Extends Break Down, Plus CSCO, IMAX, MON, PEP and PLCE

Dollar Extends Breakout, Gold Extends Break Down, Plus CSCO, IMAX, MON, PEP and PLCE

Stocks turned mixed as the Fed nixed quantitative easing. While I do not think this is the reason for mixed trading, the end of QE provides a good excuse for a rest. Stocks went on a tear the last two weeks and the market is entitled to a breather at...   READ MORE 

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Never mind QE, the Yield Curve Reflects a Dovish Fed

Never mind QE, the Yield Curve Reflects a Dovish Fed

The end of QE may be on the table, but the yield curve shows that the Fed remains dovish overall. The image below comes from the Dynamic Yield Curve. Notice that short-term yields are the lowest and the yields rise as the maturities extend. This is a "normal"...   READ MORE 

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Small-Cap Sectors Make a Move on the Relative Rotation Graph

Small-Cap Sectors Make a Move on the Relative Rotation Graph

Stocks moved higher again on Tuesday with small-caps and micro-caps leading the charge. The Russell 2000 iShares gained 2.85% and the Russell MicroCap iShares was up over 3%. Keep in mind that it only takes a small rotation to move the needle for small-caps. The S&P 500...   READ MORE 

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Louisiana Pacific Hits the Bearish-Signal-Reversed Scan

Louisiana Pacific Hits the Bearish-Signal-Reversed Scan

A failed signal is sometimes as good as a signal. In other words, a failed bearish signal is sometimes just as good as a bullish signal. StockCharts users can find failed P&F signals on the Predefined Scans page. The example below shows LPX with a bearish signal when...   READ MORE 

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UUP Holds Breakout, GLD Holds Break Down, Plus BBBY, EXPR, FL and VEEV

UUP Holds Breakout, GLD Holds Break Down, Plus BBBY, EXPR, FL and VEEV

Stocks dipped in early trading as selling pressure hit, but firmed and moved higher in the afternoon. DIA and QQQ closed with fractional gains, while IWM and SPY closed with fractional losses. The sectors were mixed with five up and four days. Energy and materials were slammed. The Oil &...   READ MORE 

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GoPro Gaps with Uptick in Volume GPRO

GoPro Gaps with Uptick in Volume GPRO

GoPro (GPRO) came under pressure last week as a lower high formed and the stock gapped down. Even though the Nasdaq 100 moved higher the last two days, GPRO moved lower and formed three black (filled) candlesticks. With the decline and gap over the last two days, the stock broke...   READ MORE 

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AD Line Gets a Break - USO Stalls after Pennant Break

AD Line Gets a Break - USO Stalls after Pennant Break

It was another strong week for stocks as the market put in another broad-based rally. Month-to-date, SPY and QQQ are still slightly lower, but IWM is up around 1.5% for October. This suggests that small-caps are showing some upside leadership as we head into November-December. Chart XX shows the...   READ MORE 

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New Highs Surge on the S&P 500

New Highs Surge on the S&P 500

The surge in the S&P 500 over the last six days was accompanied by a surge in new highs the last few days. Notice that Net New Highs exceeded 40 the last three days and new highs exceeded 45 the last three days. There were only two new...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Hit Resistance Zones, but Uptrends Hold

SPY and QQQ Hit Resistance Zones, but Uptrends Hold

Stocks put in another bullish performance on Thursday with small-caps leading the way. The Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) led the style ETFs with a 2.11% gain. Seven of the nine sectors were up with industrials leading. Several small-cap sectors made big moves with energy, materials and technology surging...   READ MORE 

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P&F Chart Nails it for the S&P 500

P&F Chart Nails it for the S&P 500

The chart below shows a long-term Point & Figure chart for the S&P 500. Each box is 10 points and a 30+ point move is needed for a reversal (3 boxes). This chart starts with the rally off the November 2012 low. The blue bullish support line was...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Breaks Wedge Trendline - Plus INTC, JPM and WFC

Dollar Breaks Wedge Trendline - Plus INTC, JPM and WFC

Stocks came under selling pressure on Wednesday with small-caps and micro-caps leading the way lower. These two led the rebound, but this upside leadership faded over the last five days. Seven of the nine sector SPDRs were down with industrials and energy leading the way. Oil fell over 1% and...   READ MORE 

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The Hang Seng Gears Up for a Move

The Hang Seng Gears Up for a Move

Protests and weakness in global markets weighed on the Hang Seng Composite ($HSI) in September as the index fell to its prior resistance zone. The index stabilized in October and got a nice bounce on Wednesday. This is an interesting area because it also represents a 50-62% retracement of the...   READ MORE 

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SPY Surges to Key Level - TLT Firms Near Support

SPY Surges to Key Level - TLT Firms Near Support

Stocks surged with broad strength that lifted all boats (except gold miners). Several of the major index ETFs surged over 2%. All nine sector SPDRs were higher, all nine equal-weight sector ETFs were up on the day and all nine small-cap sector ETFs were up. The energy sector led the...   READ MORE 

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Homebuilder and Retail ETFs Make Big Relative Moves

Homebuilder and Retail ETFs Make Big Relative Moves

The table below shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) for our ETF universe. This table is sorted by "change" with the biggest gainers at the top. In particular, the SCTR for the Home Construction iShares (ITB) surged 23.5 points and moved above 75 and the SCTR for...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Continue to Lead - Plus BBBY, GDX, ITB and XRT

Small-Caps Continue to Lead - Plus BBBY, GDX, ITB and XRT

Given the IBM miss, I was pretty impressed with market action on Monday. The Dow Diamonds (DIA) had every reason to fill its gap after a weak open, but immediately firmed and closed near the high of the day (and positive for the day). The major index ETFs are holding...   READ MORE 

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Microsoft Bounces off Key Retracement

Microsoft Bounces off Key Retracement

The chart below shows Microsoft (MSFT) falling to broken resistance, firming for two days and bouncing over the last two days. Also notice that this bounce occurred at the 62% retracement. Even though the decline looks steep, support held where it should and the stock is above the rising 200-day...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Gets an Oversold Bounce - NDX Breadth Improves

Stocks Gets an Oversold Bounce - NDX Breadth Improves

Stocks followed up on Thursday's reversal day with a gap up on Friday. Afternoon selling pressure pushed small-caps and micro-caps into negative territory by the close, but the rest of the major index ETFs closed positive. All nine sector SPDRs closed higher with the Industrials SPDR leading the...   READ MORE 

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DIA Forges Island Reversal off Support Zone (video)

DIA Forges Island Reversal off Support Zone (video)

The Dow Diamonds (DIA) showed signs of a selling climax last week and forged an island reversal to end the week. First, let's look at the indicators to suggest that we had a selling climax or capitulation of sorts. A selling climax involves a very sharp decline with...   READ MORE 

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E-Mini Forms Big Spinning Top - Small-caps Continue to Outperform

E-Mini Forms Big Spinning Top - Small-caps Continue to Outperform

It was another volatile day for stocks and the major index ETFs finished mixed. Once again, the Russell 2000 iShares and Russell MicroCap iShares led the way higher with 1+ percent gains. Energy led the sectors higher and got a nice oversold bounce. Eight of the nine small-cap sectors were...   READ MORE 

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Hammers, Hollow Reds and Dragonflies Hit the Predefined Scans

Hammers, Hollow Reds and Dragonflies Hit the Predefined Scans

With weakness in early trading and a strong close, a number of bullish candlestick patterns formed on Wednesday. These include hammers and dragonfly doji. There were also hundreds of hollow red candlesticks. These form when the close is above the open, but the close is still below the prior close....   READ MORE 

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Small-Cap Breadth Improves - A Blow off Top fo TLT?

Small-Cap Breadth Improves - A Blow off Top fo TLT?

Stocks plunged in early trading and then bounced in the afternoon. After a whole lot of volatility, stocks finished mixed overall. The Russell 2000 iShares and the Russell MicroCap iShares gained over 1% and led the rebound. The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF closed lower on...   READ MORE 

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EOG hits Big Volume-by-price Bar

EOG hits Big Volume-by-price Bar

Most energy stocks have been in a free fall this month and EOG resources is no exception. The stock plunged over 25% from its summer highs and retraced 50-62% of the prior advance (Apr-2013 to July-2014). The stock shows signs of capitulation as downside volume surged for three days and...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Perk Up, but Risk Off Remains in Play

Small-Caps Perk Up, but Risk Off Remains in Play

Stocks attempted to bounce in early trading, but selling pressure took hold and the major index ETFs fell back in the afternoon. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) finished with a small gain (.54%) and the S&P 100 ETF (OEF) ended with a small loss (.09%). Small-caps...   READ MORE 

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Energy-related ETFs Hit Historical Extremes

Energy-related ETFs Hit Historical Extremes

By most metrics, the energy related ETFs have hit oversold extremes with big declines over the last 31 days. The Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) is down around 25%, the Oil & Gas E&P SPDR (XOP) is down almost 30% and the FirstTrust Natural Gas...   READ MORE 

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E-Mini Breaks August Low as SPY Hits Targets

E-Mini Breaks August Low as SPY Hits Targets

Stocks took it on the chin again as broad selling pressure hit most areas. Most of the major index ETFs declined around 1.5% on the day. The Russell 2000 iShares held up relatively well with a .40% decline and the Russell MicroCap iShares finished with a small gain. The...   READ MORE 

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Sector Rotations, Treasuries, Dollar and Oil Favor Risk Off

Sector Rotations, Treasuries, Dollar and Oil Favor Risk Off

Stocks surged on Wednesday, but this surge failed miserably as the major index ETFs plunged to new lows for the month on Friday. The S&P 500 opened at 1961 on Thursday, closed of 1894 on Friday and fell 3.4% in two days. The index is once again...   READ MORE 

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Consumer Staples Stocks Lead the Market

Consumer Staples Stocks Lead the Market

The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) shows more "chart" strength than the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) because it broke out to new highs this week. SPY, on the other hand, remains well below its September high. The CandleGlance chart below shows six leading consumer staples stocks. Five...   READ MORE 

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The Noose Tightens on Apple

The Noose Tightens on Apple

After a big advance from April to August, Apple (AAPL) turned dull as a tight consolidation takes shape. Notice that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing and a triangle is taking shape. The indicator window shows BandWidth below 5% for the first time since early July. This volatility contraction suggests that...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breadth Indicator Remains Oversold - Risk off Rules

SPY Breadth Indicator Remains Oversold - Risk off Rules

Stocks were hit with broad-based selling pressure on Tuesday. The major index ETFs lost around 1.5% each. All nine sectors were down with the Industrials SPDR (XLI) leading the way (-2.43%). The consumer staples and utilities sectors held up the best (smallest losses). Overall, the markets remain in...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Return to Lagging Ways - Plus AXP, GOGO, LNKD, SSTK, TYC and WIT

Small-Caps Return to Lagging Ways - Plus AXP, GOGO, LNKD, SSTK, TYC and WIT

Stocks face several headwinds over the next few weeks and this could make for choppy trading, or even further weakness. First, midterm elections are four weeks away and this could create uncertainty. Second, earnings season kicks off with Alcoa on October 8th and runs until the end of the month....   READ MORE 

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Healthcare is the Healthiest Sector

Healthcare is the Healthiest Sector

It has been a rough ride for stocks since September began. The market carpet below shows performance for the sectors as a whole. The average healthcare stock is up 1.17% since 29-Aug and the average consumer staples stock is flat. The average stock for the other seven sectors is...   READ MORE 

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SPY Follows Up on Reversal Day - Watching Breadth Closely

SPY Follows Up on Reversal Day - Watching Breadth Closely

Stocks reversed course intraday on Thursday and followed this reversal with a gap-surge on Friday. The gains for the day were modest as the S&P 500 SPDR added 1.10% and the Russell 2000 iShares gained .75% on the day. Eight of the nine sector SPDRs were higher...   READ MORE 

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SPY Forges 3-Stick Reversal at Key Retracement (video)

SPY Forges 3-Stick Reversal at Key Retracement (video)

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) appears to be putting in another higher low that could signal the resumption of the long-term uptrend. First and foremost the long-term trend is up because SPY recorded a 52-week high less than three weeks ago. In addition, the charts shows a clear...   READ MORE 

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Small-caps Lead Intraday Reversal

Small-caps Lead Intraday Reversal

Stocks were hit with selling pressure in early trading, firmed at midday and then rallied in the afternoon. Small-caps and micro-caps led the way with the Russell 2000 iShares gaining 1% and the Russell MicroCap iShares surging 1.43%. Six of the nine sector SPDRs closed lower, but eight of...   READ MORE 

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And the Winner for Most Oversold Is.....

And the Winner for Most Oversold Is.....

The CandleGlance chart below shows six broad-market ETFs with 14-day RSI. Notice that RSI is below 30 for the Russell 2000 iShares, the Russell MicroCap iShares and the S&P MidCap SPDR. With an RSI below 26, the S&P MidCap SPDR is the most oversold of the...   READ MORE 

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SPY Hits Key Retracement - Plus ALXN, KKD, MXIM, SYK

SPY Hits Key Retracement - Plus ALXN, KKD, MXIM, SYK

Stocks moved sharply lower on Wednesday with the major index ETFs falling over 1%. The Russell MicroCap iShares (IWC) led the way lower with a 1.71% decline. The materials and energy sectors led the way lower. The utilities provided the only gain. Most industry group ETFs were down. The...   READ MORE 

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JO Leads the Commodity ETFs

JO Leads the Commodity ETFs

Commodities have been slammed over the last few weeks, but the Coffee ETF (JO) is holding up quite well. JO is up over 20% from its July low and showing relative strength again today. The image below comes from the Market Summary (ETF version), which is a great place to...   READ MORE 

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Correction Extends as Oversold becomes more Oversold

Correction Extends as Oversold becomes more Oversold

The song remains the same. Market performance deteriorated as we moved down in market cap on Tuesday. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) declined .26%, the S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY) fell .89% and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) lost 1.51%. Large-caps are the only bastion of...   READ MORE