Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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Key Breadth Indicator Becomes Oversold - Plus AWAY, GOOGL, N, USNA

Key Breadth Indicator Becomes Oversold - Plus AWAY, GOOGL, N, USNA

Stocks opened with selling pressure, but buyers stepped in after the first ten minutes and pushed stocks off their lows. Trading was then choppy the rest of the day. The major index ETFs finished with fractional losses. The Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) actually closed with a gain and showed...   READ MORE 

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The Smaller They are, the Harder They Fall

The Smaller They are, the Harder They Fall

September is been rather unkind to mid-caps, small-caps and micro-caps, but large-caps and large-cap techs are holding up ok. The PerfChart below shows the Dow Industrials with a small gain this month, the S&P 500 with a 1% loss and the Nasdaq 100 with a .71% loss. The...   READ MORE 

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Correction is Limited, but Markets Remain in Risk Off Mode

Correction is Limited, but Markets Remain in Risk Off Mode

Stocks remain bifurcated with performance deteriorating as we move down the market-cap scale. The S&P 500 is down 1% this month, the Nasdaq 100 is down .71% and the Dow Industrials is up a fraction. A 1% decline hardly qualifies as a correction. Mid-caps and small-caps have corrected...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Break Down as TLT Breaks Out

SPY and QQQ Break Down as TLT Breaks Out

Stocks were hit with broad selling pressure with the Nasdaq 100 ETF. leading the major index ETFs lower. The Technology SPDR led the sectors lower with a 2+ percent loss. Almost all industry group ETFs were down. The Gold Miners ETF managed a modest gain and gold got a bounce....   READ MORE 

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Highest Priced Dow Stock Weighs with a Breakdown

Highest Priced Dow Stock Weighs with a Breakdown

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average and this means the stocks with the highest prices carry the most weight. Visa (V) is the highest priced Dow stock and it was down around 1.5% at midday, thus weighing on the Dow today. The chart below shows Visa...   READ MORE 

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SPY Bounces off Support - QQQ Holds Support - Plus JO, MRVL, YUM, UA

SPY Bounces off Support - QQQ Holds Support - Plus JO, MRVL, YUM, UA

Stocks got an oversold bounce on Wednesday with QQQ leading the way (+1.07%). The bounces were relatively modest, but QQQ and SPY managed to hold some important short-term support levels. Materials, healthcare and consumer discretionary led the sector SPDRs higher. The consumer discretionary got a big boost from the...   READ MORE 

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Perrigo Follows Up on Massive Hammer

Perrigo Follows Up on Massive Hammer

Perrigo (PRGO), which is part of the healthcare sector, formed a massive hammer in mid September and followed up on this candlestick reversal with a break above the wedge trend line. Also notice that MACD moved above its signal line and turned positive. Click this image for a live chart...   READ MORE 

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Small Divergence forms in Key Breadth Indicator

Small Divergence forms in Key Breadth Indicator

Stocks remained under selling pressure on Tuesday with the major index ETFs recording modest losses. All sectors were down with the consumer staples, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors leading lower. Retailers weighed on the consumer discretionary as the Retail SPDR fell 1%. Gold got an oversold bounce and this lifted...   READ MORE 

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Breadth Indicator Hits Oversold - Plus BZH, COH, HD, QLYS and TRIP

Breadth Indicator Hits Oversold - Plus BZH, COH, HD, QLYS and TRIP

Stocks were hit with selling pressure on Monday with small-caps leading the way lower. Small-caps have been weak all month and simply continued this trend on Monday. All sector SPDRs were down with the consumer staples holding up the best. The consumer discretionary and energy sectors were hit hard. Weakness...   READ MORE 

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Finding Some Green in a Sea of Red

Finding Some Green in a Sea of Red

Stocks are down pretty much across the board on Monday, but there are some pockets of green and chartists can find these stocks using the Sector Market Carpet. The image below highlights ten stocks that are bucking the selling pressure and showing relative strength in a down market. Notice the...   READ MORE 

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Using the Raff Regression Channel to Identify Trend Reversals in FDN

Using the Raff Regression Channel to Identify Trend Reversals in FDN

Today's article will show how the use the Raff Regression Channel to define the trend and identify reversals using the Internet ETF (FDN). I am particularly interested in FDN because internet stocks represent the appetite for risk. An uptrend in FDN signals a strong appetite for risk and...   READ MORE 

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Retail, Banks, Semis and Transports Power Rally

Retail, Banks, Semis and Transports Power Rally

Stocks keep chugging higher as the major index ETFs closed with modest gains. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the way with a .75% gain. Among the sectors, the Finance SPDR (XLF) surged 1% and the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) advanced .74%. Both recorded new highs. The Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) and...   READ MORE 

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Schwab Leads Broker-Dealer iShares to New High

Schwab Leads Broker-Dealer iShares to New High

The Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) is showing leadership over the last few weeks with a surge above its March highs. Notice that the ETF is up around 10% from its early August low. Within the group, Charles Schwab (SCHW) is leading with a new high in late August and further strength...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Hold Breakouts - IWM Lags - Six Setups

SPY and QQQ Hold Breakouts - IWM Lags - Six Setups

The Fed has come and gone, and the major index ETFs managed to hold on to small gains. Finance, industrials and materials led the sector SPDRs higher, but their gains were modest (.39% to .60%). Energy was weak as oil fell again. Gold miners were hammered again as gold fell...   READ MORE 

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Would a Russell 2000 Death Cross Really be Bad?

Would a Russell 2000 Death Cross Really be Bad?

There is a lot of talk of an "impending" death cross for the Russell 2000. This event occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day SMA. While this event has triggered a couple of good signals over the last 20 years, the majority of signals...   READ MORE 

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TLT Hits Key Level as Fed Looms

TLT Hits Key Level as Fed Looms

Fed day is here and the markets will hang on every word from the Fed. Sometimes the markets even hang are words that don't appear in the Fed statement. Truth be told, I do not know what the Fed will say or do, and I do not know...   READ MORE 

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Using Breadth to Define Oversold - Plus CF, FOSL, LLTC, XLNX

Using Breadth to Define Oversold - Plus CF, FOSL, LLTC, XLNX

Stocks started the day weak and finished weak, except for some large-caps. The Russell 2000 iShares and Nasdaq 100 ETF led the market lower with 1% declines. The Dow Diamonds and S&P 100 ETF bucked the selling pressure to finish with fractional gains. The sector SPDRs were mixed...   READ MORE 

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Energy and Pharma Stocks Lift the Dow

Energy and Pharma Stocks Lift the Dow

The Dow Industrials is bucking the selling pressure with strength in Chevron, Pfizer, Travellers, Procter & Gamble and Home Depot (among others). Chartists can easily spot the winners and losers on a Market Carpet. The chart below shows at least ten green squares, which means these ten are up. There...   READ MORE 

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XLF Shows Relative Strength - Flags form in SPY and IWM

XLF Shows Relative Strength - Flags form in SPY and IWM

It is Fed week and stocks are in corrective mode. IWM and SPY edged lower this month, while QQQ has traded flat since late August. The patterns for SPY and IWM look like falling flags, which are bullish continuation patterns. Breakouts in both would be quite bullish for the market...   READ MORE 

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Financial Services Lead Small-cap Rebound

Financial Services Lead Small-cap Rebound

Stocks were mixed on Thursday with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) moving higher and the Dow Diamonds (DIA) edging lower. Strength in financial services helped the Russell 2000 gain. The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) gained .81% as the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) continued higher. The Retail SPDR (XRT) also showed...   READ MORE 

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General Electric Gets a Squeeze

General Electric Gets a Squeeze

Trading in General Electric (GE) has slowed over the last two weeks and the Bollinger Bands have contracted to their narrowest since early July. The indicator window confirms this volatility contraction as BandWidth dipped below 3 again. Chartists should now prepare for a volatility expansion and a decisive break. Watch...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Holds Support - Plus ADSK, AMZN, AN, CSCO, KRE

QQQ Holds Support - Plus ADSK, AMZN, AN, CSCO, KRE

Stocks were slightly higher on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the way (+.83%). The sectors were mixed with weakness coming from energy and utilities. Energy stocks were lower as oil hit another new low for the move. Utilities were lower because the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($UST10Y) closed...   READ MORE 

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SCTR Surges for the Networking iShares

SCTR Surges for the Networking iShares

The Networking iShares (IGN) is making a move over the last few weeks and the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) surged above 50 this week. The chart shows IGN with a big triangle forming since March. A break above triangle resistance would signal a continuation of the prior advance, which was...   READ MORE 

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A Breadth Indicator Breaks Down - Setting a Near Term Apple Target

A Breadth Indicator Breaks Down - Setting a Near Term Apple Target

Stocks started the day weak and remained under selling pressure most of the day. Even though the overall declines were modest, price action was not positive and we could see more weakness. Also note that the Small-Cap Percent Above 50-day EMA (!GT50SML) broke down and triggered a bearish signal. In...   READ MORE 

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Breadth Indicator Hits Moment-of-Truth - Plus BAC, CSTE, CY, MYL

Breadth Indicator Hits Moment-of-Truth - Plus BAC, CSTE, CY, MYL

It was a mixed day on Wall Street. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) edged higher, while the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) edged lower. The gains and losses were fractional. The Energy SPDR (XLE) was high hard as Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) fell to...   READ MORE 

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Spot Silver Forms Large Continuation Pattern

Spot Silver Forms Large Continuation Pattern

The chart below shows Spot Silver ($SILVER) consolidating after a sharp decline. Notice that the metal fell from 35 to 19 and then traded flat from June 2013 until now. With lower highs taking shape, a descending triangle has formed and this is a bearish continuation pattern. A break below...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Analysis for Stocks, Key Sectors, Gold, Oil, Treasuries and the Dollar

Short-Term Analysis for Stocks, Key Sectors, Gold, Oil, Treasuries and the Dollar

Stocks finished the week on a strong note with modest gains on Friday. Despite this strong finish, the major index ETFs have been in trading ranges the last two weeks. A trading range or consolidation within an uptrend is typically bullish and favors a continuation higher. The CandleGlance charts below...   READ MORE 

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Key Breadth Indicators Affirm Long-term Uptrend

Key Breadth Indicators Affirm Long-term Uptrend

The S&P 1500 AD Line ($SUPADP) and the S&P 1500 AD Volume Line ($SUPUDP) hit new highs to confirm the overall uptrend. This is significant for two reasons. First, a bearish divergence is not possible. A bearish divergence forms when the indicators fail to confirm a...   READ MORE 

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Euro, Gold and Oil Plunge - Stocks Await Non-Farm Payrolls

Euro, Gold and Oil Plunge - Stocks Await Non-Farm Payrolls

And now for the employment report... There is nothing to do but wait for the market's reaction to non-farm payrolls on Friday morning. Given recent data, I would expect non-farm payrolls to meet or exceed expectations. On Thursday, the ISM Services Index hit 59.5, which is very...   READ MORE 

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Technical Ranks Jump for Southern Peru Copper and the Base Metals ETF

Technical Ranks Jump for Southern Peru Copper and the Base Metals ETF

StockCharts users can find the market movers and shakers by checking the SCTR tables on our home page. Click the top up or top down tabs to see securities that show the biggest gains or losses in relative strength. As the table below shows, the StockCharts Technical Ranks (SCTR) for...   READ MORE 

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Small-Cap Breadth Indicator Stalls - Plus GE, PAYX and TM

Small-Cap Breadth Indicator Stalls - Plus GE, PAYX and TM

Stocks started the month overbought and traded flat the last few days. The major index ETFs were again mixed on Wednesday with the Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) edging higher and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) edging lower. The sectors were mixed with five up and...   READ MORE 

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Starbucks Shows Relative and Absolute Weakness

Starbucks Shows Relative and Absolute Weakness

The S&P 500 is up around over 4 percent the last four weeks, but Starbucks is underperforming and is barely positive over the same timeframe. In fact, SBUX is well below its July high and recently broke wedge support. The indicator window shows momentum deteriorating as MACD moves...   READ MORE 

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Five Year Yield Surges and Small-caps Start to Lead

Five Year Yield Surges and Small-caps Start to Lead

It was a mixed day overall, but small-caps and regional banks showed some strength. DIA and SPY edged lower, while IWM and QQQ closely slightly higher. Five of the nine sectors were up with the Finance SPDR (XLF) leading the gainers. The Energy SPDR (XLE) got hammered as Spot Light...   READ MORE 

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GLD Forms Bearish Pattern - Plus BSX, BX, IACI and IP

GLD Forms Bearish Pattern - Plus BSX, BX, IACI and IP

Stocks remain strong. Period. Even though IWM is underperforming SPY, it is trending higher the last four weeks and participating in the broad market advance. Note that QQQ continues to lead with a new high last week. SPY also hit a new high on Tuesday and Friday's close...   READ MORE 

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SPY Stalls within Uptrend - TLT Hits New High

SPY Stalls within Uptrend - TLT Hits New High

Stocks stalled over the last few days, but the short-term uptrends have yet to reverse. In fact, the existing trends for TLT (up), UUP (up), USO (down) and GLD (down) also remain unchanged. SPY is up around 5% since August 7th. This is a very steep advance and the ETF...   READ MORE 

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German DAX Reverses Near Key Retracement

German DAX Reverses Near Key Retracement

The German DAX Index ($DAX) is at an interesting juncture because it broke down in July and then retraced 62% of the prior decline with a bounce in August. Notice that broken support turns into resistance in the 9600 area as well. The index stalled on Wednesday and was trading...   READ MORE 

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TLT Challenges Prior High - Five Chart Setups

TLT Challenges Prior High - Five Chart Setups

Stocks turned mixed on Wednesday with fractional gains and losses in the major index ETFs. The sectors were also mixed, but the Utilities SPDR (XLU) caught a bid and surged 1.09%. Networking stocks weighed on the tech sector as the Networking iShares (IGN) fell .69%. Regional banks weighed on...   READ MORE 

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Watching the TLT Channel - XLU Forms Bearish Candle at Key Retracement

Watching the TLT Channel - XLU Forms Bearish Candle at Key Retracement

Stocks edged higher again with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) leading the way, though the gain was just .65%. Eight of the nine sectors were higher with the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Finance SPDR (XLF) leading. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) was the lone loser. As the chart below shows, XLU...   READ MORE 

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IWM Holds Rising Channel - Plus Four Chart Setups

IWM Holds Rising Channel - Plus Four Chart Setups

Stocks opened strong and then traded flat the rest of the day. The major index ETFs closed with small gains as the opening surge held. All nine sectors were higher with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Energy SPDR (XLE) leading the way. Energy is getting an oversold bounce and money...   READ MORE 

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Consumer and Capital Spending Sectors Lead in August

Consumer and Capital Spending Sectors Lead in August

Contrary to seasonal tendencies, August has been a strong month for the stock market. The Sector PerfChart shows the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) up just over 3% since July 31st. Of the nine sectors, the Industrials SPDR (XLI) and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) are up over 4%...   READ MORE