Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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EOG hits Big Volume-by-price Bar

EOG hits Big Volume-by-price Bar

Most energy stocks have been in a free fall this month and EOG resources is no exception. The stock plunged over 25% from its summer highs and retraced 50-62% of the prior advance (Apr-2013 to July-2014). The stock shows signs of capitulation as downside volume surged for three days and...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Perk Up, but Risk Off Remains in Play

Small-Caps Perk Up, but Risk Off Remains in Play

Stocks attempted to bounce in early trading, but selling pressure took hold and the major index ETFs fell back in the afternoon. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) finished with a small gain (.54%) and the S&P 100 ETF (OEF) ended with a small loss (.09%). Small-caps...   READ MORE 

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Energy-related ETFs Hit Historical Extremes

Energy-related ETFs Hit Historical Extremes

By most metrics, the energy related ETFs have hit oversold extremes with big declines over the last 31 days. The Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) is down around 25%, the Oil & Gas E&P SPDR (XOP) is down almost 30% and the FirstTrust Natural Gas...   READ MORE 

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E-Mini Breaks August Low as SPY Hits Targets

E-Mini Breaks August Low as SPY Hits Targets

Stocks took it on the chin again as broad selling pressure hit most areas. Most of the major index ETFs declined around 1.5% on the day. The Russell 2000 iShares held up relatively well with a .40% decline and the Russell MicroCap iShares finished with a small gain. The...   READ MORE 

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Sector Rotations, Treasuries, Dollar and Oil Favor Risk Off

Sector Rotations, Treasuries, Dollar and Oil Favor Risk Off

Stocks surged on Wednesday, but this surge failed miserably as the major index ETFs plunged to new lows for the month on Friday. The S&P 500 opened at 1961 on Thursday, closed of 1894 on Friday and fell 3.4% in two days. The index is once again...   READ MORE 

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Consumer Staples Stocks Lead the Market

Consumer Staples Stocks Lead the Market

The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) shows more "chart" strength than the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) because it broke out to new highs this week. SPY, on the other hand, remains well below its September high. The CandleGlance chart below shows six leading consumer staples stocks. Five...   READ MORE 

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The Noose Tightens on Apple

The Noose Tightens on Apple

After a big advance from April to August, Apple (AAPL) turned dull as a tight consolidation takes shape. Notice that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing and a triangle is taking shape. The indicator window shows BandWidth below 5% for the first time since early July. This volatility contraction suggests that...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breadth Indicator Remains Oversold - Risk off Rules

SPY Breadth Indicator Remains Oversold - Risk off Rules

Stocks were hit with broad-based selling pressure on Tuesday. The major index ETFs lost around 1.5% each. All nine sectors were down with the Industrials SPDR (XLI) leading the way (-2.43%). The consumer staples and utilities sectors held up the best (smallest losses). Overall, the markets remain in...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps Return to Lagging Ways - Plus AXP, GOGO, LNKD, SSTK, TYC and WIT

Small-Caps Return to Lagging Ways - Plus AXP, GOGO, LNKD, SSTK, TYC and WIT

Stocks face several headwinds over the next few weeks and this could make for choppy trading, or even further weakness. First, midterm elections are four weeks away and this could create uncertainty. Second, earnings season kicks off with Alcoa on October 8th and runs until the end of the month....   READ MORE 

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Healthcare is the Healthiest Sector

Healthcare is the Healthiest Sector

It has been a rough ride for stocks since September began. The market carpet below shows performance for the sectors as a whole. The average healthcare stock is up 1.17% since 29-Aug and the average consumer staples stock is flat. The average stock for the other seven sectors is...   READ MORE 

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SPY Follows Up on Reversal Day - Watching Breadth Closely

SPY Follows Up on Reversal Day - Watching Breadth Closely

Stocks reversed course intraday on Thursday and followed this reversal with a gap-surge on Friday. The gains for the day were modest as the S&P 500 SPDR added 1.10% and the Russell 2000 iShares gained .75% on the day. Eight of the nine sector SPDRs were higher...   READ MORE 

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SPY Forges 3-Stick Reversal at Key Retracement (video)

SPY Forges 3-Stick Reversal at Key Retracement (video)

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) appears to be putting in another higher low that could signal the resumption of the long-term uptrend. First and foremost the long-term trend is up because SPY recorded a 52-week high less than three weeks ago. In addition, the charts shows a clear...   READ MORE 

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Small-caps Lead Intraday Reversal

Small-caps Lead Intraday Reversal

Stocks were hit with selling pressure in early trading, firmed at midday and then rallied in the afternoon. Small-caps and micro-caps led the way with the Russell 2000 iShares gaining 1% and the Russell MicroCap iShares surging 1.43%. Six of the nine sector SPDRs closed lower, but eight of...   READ MORE 

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And the Winner for Most Oversold Is.....

And the Winner for Most Oversold Is.....

The CandleGlance chart below shows six broad-market ETFs with 14-day RSI. Notice that RSI is below 30 for the Russell 2000 iShares, the Russell MicroCap iShares and the S&P MidCap SPDR. With an RSI below 26, the S&P MidCap SPDR is the most oversold of the...   READ MORE 

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SPY Hits Key Retracement - Plus ALXN, KKD, MXIM, SYK

SPY Hits Key Retracement - Plus ALXN, KKD, MXIM, SYK

Stocks moved sharply lower on Wednesday with the major index ETFs falling over 1%. The Russell MicroCap iShares (IWC) led the way lower with a 1.71% decline. The materials and energy sectors led the way lower. The utilities provided the only gain. Most industry group ETFs were down. The...   READ MORE 

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JO Leads the Commodity ETFs

JO Leads the Commodity ETFs

Commodities have been slammed over the last few weeks, but the Coffee ETF (JO) is holding up quite well. JO is up over 20% from its July low and showing relative strength again today. The image below comes from the Market Summary (ETF version), which is a great place to...   READ MORE 

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Correction Extends as Oversold becomes more Oversold

Correction Extends as Oversold becomes more Oversold

The song remains the same. Market performance deteriorated as we moved down in market cap on Tuesday. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) declined .26%, the S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY) fell .89% and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) lost 1.51%. Large-caps are the only bastion of...   READ MORE 

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Key Breadth Indicator Becomes Oversold - Plus AWAY, GOOGL, N, USNA

Key Breadth Indicator Becomes Oversold - Plus AWAY, GOOGL, N, USNA

Stocks opened with selling pressure, but buyers stepped in after the first ten minutes and pushed stocks off their lows. Trading was then choppy the rest of the day. The major index ETFs finished with fractional losses. The Russell 2000 Growth iShares (IWO) actually closed with a gain and showed...   READ MORE 

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The Smaller They are, the Harder They Fall

The Smaller They are, the Harder They Fall

September is been rather unkind to mid-caps, small-caps and micro-caps, but large-caps and large-cap techs are holding up ok. The PerfChart below shows the Dow Industrials with a small gain this month, the S&P 500 with a 1% loss and the Nasdaq 100 with a .71% loss. The...   READ MORE 

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Correction is Limited, but Markets Remain in Risk Off Mode

Correction is Limited, but Markets Remain in Risk Off Mode

Stocks remain bifurcated with performance deteriorating as we move down the market-cap scale. The S&P 500 is down 1% this month, the Nasdaq 100 is down .71% and the Dow Industrials is up a fraction. A 1% decline hardly qualifies as a correction. Mid-caps and small-caps have corrected...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Break Down as TLT Breaks Out

SPY and QQQ Break Down as TLT Breaks Out

Stocks were hit with broad selling pressure with the Nasdaq 100 ETF. leading the major index ETFs lower. The Technology SPDR led the sectors lower with a 2+ percent loss. Almost all industry group ETFs were down. The Gold Miners ETF managed a modest gain and gold got a bounce....   READ MORE 

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Highest Priced Dow Stock Weighs with a Breakdown

Highest Priced Dow Stock Weighs with a Breakdown

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average and this means the stocks with the highest prices carry the most weight. Visa (V) is the highest priced Dow stock and it was down around 1.5% at midday, thus weighing on the Dow today. The chart below shows Visa...   READ MORE 

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SPY Bounces off Support - QQQ Holds Support - Plus JO, MRVL, YUM, UA

SPY Bounces off Support - QQQ Holds Support - Plus JO, MRVL, YUM, UA

Stocks got an oversold bounce on Wednesday with QQQ leading the way (+1.07%). The bounces were relatively modest, but QQQ and SPY managed to hold some important short-term support levels. Materials, healthcare and consumer discretionary led the sector SPDRs higher. The consumer discretionary got a big boost from the...   READ MORE 

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Perrigo Follows Up on Massive Hammer

Perrigo Follows Up on Massive Hammer

Perrigo (PRGO), which is part of the healthcare sector, formed a massive hammer in mid September and followed up on this candlestick reversal with a break above the wedge trend line. Also notice that MACD moved above its signal line and turned positive. Click this image for a live chart...   READ MORE 

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Small Divergence forms in Key Breadth Indicator

Small Divergence forms in Key Breadth Indicator

Stocks remained under selling pressure on Tuesday with the major index ETFs recording modest losses. All sectors were down with the consumer staples, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors leading lower. Retailers weighed on the consumer discretionary as the Retail SPDR fell 1%. Gold got an oversold bounce and this lifted...   READ MORE 

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Breadth Indicator Hits Oversold - Plus BZH, COH, HD, QLYS and TRIP

Breadth Indicator Hits Oversold - Plus BZH, COH, HD, QLYS and TRIP

Stocks were hit with selling pressure on Monday with small-caps leading the way lower. Small-caps have been weak all month and simply continued this trend on Monday. All sector SPDRs were down with the consumer staples holding up the best. The consumer discretionary and energy sectors were hit hard. Weakness...   READ MORE 

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Finding Some Green in a Sea of Red

Finding Some Green in a Sea of Red

Stocks are down pretty much across the board on Monday, but there are some pockets of green and chartists can find these stocks using the Sector Market Carpet. The image below highlights ten stocks that are bucking the selling pressure and showing relative strength in a down market. Notice the...   READ MORE 

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Using the Raff Regression Channel to Identify Trend Reversals in FDN

Using the Raff Regression Channel to Identify Trend Reversals in FDN

Today's article will show how the use the Raff Regression Channel to define the trend and identify reversals using the Internet ETF (FDN). I am particularly interested in FDN because internet stocks represent the appetite for risk. An uptrend in FDN signals a strong appetite for risk and...   READ MORE 

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Retail, Banks, Semis and Transports Power Rally

Retail, Banks, Semis and Transports Power Rally

Stocks keep chugging higher as the major index ETFs closed with modest gains. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the way with a .75% gain. Among the sectors, the Finance SPDR (XLF) surged 1% and the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) advanced .74%. Both recorded new highs. The Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) and...   READ MORE 

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Schwab Leads Broker-Dealer iShares to New High

Schwab Leads Broker-Dealer iShares to New High

The Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) is showing leadership over the last few weeks with a surge above its March highs. Notice that the ETF is up around 10% from its early August low. Within the group, Charles Schwab (SCHW) is leading with a new high in late August and further strength...   READ MORE 

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SPY and QQQ Hold Breakouts - IWM Lags - Six Setups

SPY and QQQ Hold Breakouts - IWM Lags - Six Setups

The Fed has come and gone, and the major index ETFs managed to hold on to small gains. Finance, industrials and materials led the sector SPDRs higher, but their gains were modest (.39% to .60%). Energy was weak as oil fell again. Gold miners were hammered again as gold fell...   READ MORE 

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Would a Russell 2000 Death Cross Really be Bad?

Would a Russell 2000 Death Cross Really be Bad?

There is a lot of talk of an "impending" death cross for the Russell 2000. This event occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day SMA. While this event has triggered a couple of good signals over the last 20 years, the majority of signals...   READ MORE 

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TLT Hits Key Level as Fed Looms

TLT Hits Key Level as Fed Looms

Fed day is here and the markets will hang on every word from the Fed. Sometimes the markets even hang are words that don't appear in the Fed statement. Truth be told, I do not know what the Fed will say or do, and I do not know...   READ MORE 

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Using Breadth to Define Oversold - Plus CF, FOSL, LLTC, XLNX

Using Breadth to Define Oversold - Plus CF, FOSL, LLTC, XLNX

Stocks started the day weak and finished weak, except for some large-caps. The Russell 2000 iShares and Nasdaq 100 ETF led the market lower with 1% declines. The Dow Diamonds and S&P 100 ETF bucked the selling pressure to finish with fractional gains. The sector SPDRs were mixed...   READ MORE 

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Energy and Pharma Stocks Lift the Dow

Energy and Pharma Stocks Lift the Dow

The Dow Industrials is bucking the selling pressure with strength in Chevron, Pfizer, Travellers, Procter & Gamble and Home Depot (among others). Chartists can easily spot the winners and losers on a Market Carpet. The chart below shows at least ten green squares, which means these ten are up. There...   READ MORE 

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XLF Shows Relative Strength - Flags form in SPY and IWM

XLF Shows Relative Strength - Flags form in SPY and IWM

It is Fed week and stocks are in corrective mode. IWM and SPY edged lower this month, while QQQ has traded flat since late August. The patterns for SPY and IWM look like falling flags, which are bullish continuation patterns. Breakouts in both would be quite bullish for the market...   READ MORE 

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Financial Services Lead Small-cap Rebound

Financial Services Lead Small-cap Rebound

Stocks were mixed on Thursday with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) moving higher and the Dow Diamonds (DIA) edging lower. Strength in financial services helped the Russell 2000 gain. The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) gained .81% as the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) continued higher. The Retail SPDR (XRT) also showed...   READ MORE 

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General Electric Gets a Squeeze

General Electric Gets a Squeeze

Trading in General Electric (GE) has slowed over the last two weeks and the Bollinger Bands have contracted to their narrowest since early July. The indicator window confirms this volatility contraction as BandWidth dipped below 3 again. Chartists should now prepare for a volatility expansion and a decisive break. Watch...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Holds Support - Plus ADSK, AMZN, AN, CSCO, KRE

QQQ Holds Support - Plus ADSK, AMZN, AN, CSCO, KRE

Stocks were slightly higher on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the way (+.83%). The sectors were mixed with weakness coming from energy and utilities. Energy stocks were lower as oil hit another new low for the move. Utilities were lower because the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($UST10Y) closed...   READ MORE 

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SCTR Surges for the Networking iShares

SCTR Surges for the Networking iShares

The Networking iShares (IGN) is making a move over the last few weeks and the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) surged above 50 this week. The chart shows IGN with a big triangle forming since March. A break above triangle resistance would signal a continuation of the prior advance, which was...   READ MORE