Setting expectations is part of a strategy and this includes expectations for the number of signals we can expect in any given year. Signal frequency, of course, depends on your strategy and timeframe. Short-term mean-reversion strategies generate more signals than swing strategies and swing strategies generate more signals than long-term... READ MORE
The Networking ETF (IGN) is leading the market with a solid uptrend and a new high this week. Diving into the group, I found a stock that recently broke out and formed a short-term bullish continuation pattern. The stock is also in an uptrend and I expect a breakout to... READ MORE
The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) was one of the leading industry group ETFs in the spring after it surged some 164% off its November low. This was clearly a massive gain and the ETF was entitled to a rest. Big meals require long digestive periods and... READ MORE
Signs of risk aversion are increasing in the financial markets. Risk aversion first appeared in the junk bond market in October and this week we are seeing money move into Treasury bonds, the ultimate safe-haven assets. Junk bonds have the highest risk because they are the lowest-rated corporate bonds. As... READ MORE
Note that this article has been revised to account for Friday's price action. Stocks were slammed on Black Friday with small-caps leading the way lower and stay-at-home stocks bouncing. The declines were big, but they should be put into perspective. First, Black Friday is pretty much a holiday... READ MORE
The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week, and last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF and relative strength in small-caps. Is there a correlation between small-cap relative performance and Treasury yields? Today's commentary will look at... READ MORE
We have all heard of trend-following and many us employ trend indicators in our strategies. But how do these indicators actually perform over an extended period of time and in varying market conditions? Let's look at an example. The chart below shows Alphabet (GOOGL) with two trend indicators:... READ MORE
Moving averages are classic trend-following indicators and the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. This article will put the 200-day to the test using the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). The ETF just came off its best "trend" trade ever using the 5/200... READ MORE
The Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) came to life here in October with a six percent surge that could signal the beginning of the end for a long correction. IFRA underperformed from May to mid September, but is now showing some relative strength. We will look at the long-term picture and show... READ MORE
Stocks surged for the second Thursday in as many weeks, but this Thursday's surge was a lot different than the previous week. This week's surge featured a strong open and strong close as well as the strongest breadth in four months. What does it mean going... READ MORE
Chartists looking to trade in the direction of the bigger trend have two options. First, take trend signals and act when the trend turns up. Once an uptrend is underway, chartists must then rely on pullbacks, short-term oversold conditions and bullish continuation patterns to hitch a ride. Today's... READ MORE
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) threw a tantrum this week with the biggest two day decline since March 2020, which was a very chaotic month. With a sharp decline in bonds, the 10-yr Treasury Yield broke above its summer highs and the bulls stampeded into the Regional Bank... READ MORE
The AAII indicators are making waves this week so I will cover two charts. AAII percent bears surged to 39.3% and percent bulls dropped to 22.40%. As a result, net bull-bear percentage plunged to -16.90%, the first negative reading since September 2020. Note that the remaining 38.... READ MORE
Chartists often face a conundrum when a new trend signal triggers because the stock or ETF is frequently extended when this signal triggers. After all, it takes strong buying pressure for a new uptrend to signal. Short-term overbought or extended conditions are long-term bullish, but these same conditions can lead... READ MORE
Today's commentary will start with price chart analysis for a clean energy ETF, which once led the market with triple digit gains. After a corrective period, it appears that this high flying ETF and a few of its brethren are turning up again with recent trend signals. We... READ MORE
The Finance SPDR (XLF) is one of the leading sectors and recently broke out of a falling wedge correction. There was a little throwback this week, but the breakout is holding and remains bullish until proven otherwise. Let's see what it would take to prove otherwise. First and... READ MORE
RSI is a momentum oscillator that many chartists use to identify overbought and oversold levels. While RSI above 70 is typically considered an overbought condition, it is also a sign of strong upside momentum that can signal the start of an extended advance. Conversely, RSI below 30 is considered an... READ MORE
The Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the 10-yr Treasury Yield are positively correlated and the recent surge in the 10-yr yield led to a breakout in the Regional Bank ETF. More importantly, this breakout signals an end to a corrective period and a resumption of the bigger uptrend. As noted... READ MORE
The decline in the 10-yr yield is not the only factor at work in the markets, but there is clearly a correlation at work recently, especially with banks. The chart below shows the 10-yr Yield ($TNX) and Regional Bank ETF (KRE) falling from mid May to July. Meanwhile, the Technology... READ MORE
The Energy SPDR (XLE) is setting up to end its correction and resume its bigger uptrend. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because the Trend Composite signaled an uptrend (gray circle) in late November when the majority of indicators turned bullish. There are five trend-following indicators in the... READ MORE
The Steel ETF (SLX) led the market from late October to early May by more than doubling in price. The ETF then fell back with a break of the 50-day SMA in June, but this decline is viewed as a correction within a bigger uptrend. As such, it represents an... READ MORE
After leading the market into February 2020, tech-related ETFs were hit with strong selling pressure into March and extended their corrections into May. Large triangles formed in several and they broke out of these bullish continuation patterns with strong move the last seven weeks. A triangle within an uptrend represents... READ MORE
Traders interested in Treasury bonds, Treasury bond ETFs and yields would be better off ignoring Fed-speak and focusing on the charts. The bond market leads the Fed, not the other way around. There is a battle raging for the heart and soul of the bond market. In a rare divergence,... READ MORE
SPY experienced its biggest weekly decline (-2.2%) since late February and the nine-week Rate-of-Change turned negative for the first time since late October. The ETF also closed below its 10-day SMA for the first time since late January. Normally, a close or dip below the 10-week SMA signals a... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR is lagging the broader market over the last eight weeks, but a close look at price action reveals an uptrend, a bullish continuation pattern and an uptick in short-term momentum. Let's investigate. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up for the Utilities SPDR (XLU)... READ MORE
The 5G Next Generation ETF (FIVG) is taking the lead within the tech space as it breaks out of a bullish continuation pattern. FIVG is leading because it recorded a new high here in early June. Not very many tech-related ETFs hit new highs here in early June and this... READ MORE
Some of the old Ford and GM cars can still rev their engines, but the sound of a revving engine could go the way of the dodo with EVs. Perhaps, I should say that the Global Auto ETF (CARZ) price chart is revving its engine and poised for a breakout.... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) crossed above its 200-day EMA in early May and its 200-day SMA this past week. Both signals are "bullish" and point to a long-term uptrend, but tell us little regarding realistic expectations going forward. To get a better understanding, we need to know which... READ MORE
Chartists can compare performance by using the 50-day SMA as a benchmark level. Names that exceed their 50-day SMAs show more strength than those that do not exceed their 50-day SMAs. By this yardstick, QQQ is underperforming SPY and weighing on the broader market. Oh, and mind the gap as... READ MORE
The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) was hit with the rest of the tech sector over the last few weeks, but it held the March lows and is on my radar as a possible triangle forms over the last few months. In particular, I am watching the downswing within this triangle for... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high last week, but it was alone at the top because several other major index ETFs did not confirm. In fact, these non-confirmations have been building since March as fewer groups participated. Of note, several tech-related ETFs peaked in mid February,... READ MORE
The Regional Bank ETF pattern over the last few months is similar to that of the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF. This is not surprising because the financial services sector accounts for 17.8% of IJR and 16.34% of IWM, and is the second... READ MORE
The long-term trend for the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) remains up, but the ETF is coming under some selling pressure and underperforming the broader market. While this is not enough reason to turn long-term bearish, it does increase the odds of corrective period in the coming weeks. First, let's... READ MORE
The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are lagging the market, but they are still in uptrends and the noose is tightening. Today we will look at the volatility contraction in IJR and the loss of trend in IWM, and then show what to... READ MORE
The DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) is breaking out of a bullish continuation pattern after a Bollinger Band squeeze and this signals a continuation of the long-term uptrend. The first chart shows the DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) with Heikin-Ashi candlesticks in the top window and normal candlesticks in the... READ MORE
The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) formed two bullish continuation patterns within its long-term uptrend and recent breakouts bode well for further gains. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up for XLV. The ETF is above its rising 200-day SMA and within 1% of its January high, which was a 52-week... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) represents the largest stocks in the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) covers the next 100 (101 to 200). Stocks at the top of the latter group are knocking on the door and trying to fatten up for inclusion into the legendary... READ MORE
Dozens of high flying stocks and ETFs are down double digits from their February highs, but chartists should put these declines into perspective when analyzing the charts. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), the Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) declined over 30% from their February highs... READ MORE
I wrote about the Biotech ETF (IBB) on February 28th as it pulled back from a new high. The pullback was viewed as a correction within the bigger uptrend, but the correction extended further than expected. At the time, I drew a falling wedge on the chart and marked resistance... READ MORE
As its name suggests, multiple timeframe analysis looks at two or more timeframes to find a setup. Typically, the longer timeframe is used to define the long-term trend and set the trading bias. The shorter timeframe is then used to find setups in harmony with the bigger trend. Nothing is... READ MORE