The markets got a taste for risk as the Senate debated the fiscal cliff on Friday. A bill did indeed pass by a wide margin and the House subsequently passed the bill as well. The bill does provide some relief from the fiscal slope, but does little to fix the... READ MORE
The Fed announced another round of quantitative easing on September 13th and Treasuries have yet to cooperate with this maneuver. Instead of a specific program, the Fed announced an open-ended quantitative easing program that would begin in January 2013. QE is supposed to be bearish for treasuries because the... READ MORE
The Technology SPDR (XLK) led the market in the first half of the year, but lagged the market in the second half and underperformed the S&P 500. The technology sector accounts for over 19% of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and is by far the biggest... READ MORE
The US Dollar Index ($USD) was all over the place in 2012, but ended the year slightly lower than where it started. The index started the year around 80, surged to 84 and closed at 79.62 on Friday. From February to December, a large head-and-shoulders reversal formed... READ MORE
Big banks came to life in 2012 as the Finance SPDR (XLF) started the year strong and ended strong. XLK opened 2012 just above 13 and is likely to finish near a 52-week high. The ETF scored a 52-week high with the move above 16.5 in mid... READ MORE
The Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) came to life over the last two months and surged above its March high with a massive surge. Notice that the index held above its 2009 lows and also broke channel resistance in the process. This move opens the door to the next resistance zone in... READ MORE
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish, but I am concerned that the major index ETFs may be forming lower highs. With the decline over the last six days, SPY and DIA peaked below their September highs and lower highs could be forming. Relative weakness in the Nasdaq is also... READ MORE
Ladies and gentlemen, the fiscal cliff is a farce built up by the media and the politicians. It is not a cliff, but rather a slope that can be remedied in January, February or even March. Of course, the longer the slope extends, the worse for the economy and the... READ MORE
The Dow has fallen over 300 points in the last six trading days and is now testing the 200-day moving average. The senior Average broke above this key average in early December and needs to hold the breakout. A break back below 13000 would be quite negative. MACD is... READ MORE
Macy's (M) is having a rough season as the stock broke the 200-day moving average and support at 37.50 the last few days. Also notice that stock gapped down four days ago and fell on high volume just before Christmas. This gap zone becomes the first... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) reversed near resistance with a gap up, stall and gap down. This sequence is also known as an island reversal. In addition to the reversal at resistance, notice that XRT shows relative weakness as the price relative moved below its mid December low. Click this image... READ MORE
Programming note: I will be taking off December 27th and 31st. Art's charts and the Market Message will be updated on Wednesday and Friday this week, and Wednesday (Jan-2) next week. Happy Holidays! Stocks edged lower on Christmas Eve with relatively mild selling pressure during a shortened... READ MORE
2012 is ending with a bang for banking stocks as sentiment towards this sector improved significantly in December. Perhaps the big banks are looking forward to open-ended quantitative easing in 2013. The chart below shows the Finance SPDR (XLF) breaking above its autumn highs to record a 52-week... READ MORE
The Sector Market Carpet is full of red today as selling pressure hit an overbought stock market. All sectors are down, but there are a few isolated green boxes. Nike (NKE) is the top performer with a 4.8% surge. Red Hat (RHT) is up within the technology sector and... READ MORE
Things were looking up until the fiscal cliff hit a roadblock. Stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open and it could be a bumpy ride until yearend. The indicator summary remains bullish overall with new highs in the NYSE AD Line and AD Volume Line leading the charge.... READ MORE
Programming note: I will be taking off December 24, 27 and 31. Art's charts and the Market Message will be updated on Wednesday and Friday next week. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Forget about the fiscal cliff and markets for a while and take time for things that... READ MORE
Electronic Arts (EA) came under strong selling pressure the last three days with consecutive long black candlesticks. As this chart now stands (11:48 ET), a bearish three black crows pattern is taking shape. The stock is short-term oversold already, but the trend line and support break are medium-... READ MORE
AAP Consolidates after Gap Down. HAS Falls Five Straight Days. Plus AZO, BCR, CB, LUB, ROL, XOM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Stocks edged lower during the day and then took a hit in the final hour. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell .74% and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) declined .43% on the day. The losses were modest and the market was ripe for some profit taking. Keep in... READ MORE
The market brushed off the fiscal cliff BS as the Santa bulls got into high gear on Tuesday. All of the major index ETFs advanced over 1% with the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) leading the way (+1.52%). Small-caps were also strong with the Russell 2000 ETF... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) continues to lead the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with a break above its autumn highs. After forming a doji and a hammer, QQEW broke channel resistance in late November and never looked back. The indicator window shows the price relative breaking out in... READ MORE
The Santa Claus rally continued on Monday with the major index ETFs scoring nice gains. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the way with a 1.33% rise. All sectors were up with the consumer discretionary, technology, finance and utilities sectors leading the way. In fact, five of the nine... READ MORE
BP Forms Triangle Consolidation, CHS Bounces off Support. Plus CQP, COH, FITB, USB This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is showing strength with a channel breakout in November and a pennant consolidation in December. XLY surged over 1.4% on Monday to form the second low for the pennant. A breakout would signal a continuation higher. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
Trading could get real tricky (volatile) has we head into the fiscal-cliff endgame and holiday season. First, the markets will become extra sensitive to the news flow out of Washington over the next two weeks. Second, trading volume will thin, which means any uptick in volume could cause an... READ MORE
Intraday P&F charts are good for capturing short-term and medium-term price movements. The chart below is a 60-minute P&F chart for KB Home (KBH). Notice how the stock broke the Bearish Resistance Line and forged a breakout at 15 this week. Click this... READ MORE
Stocks extended their uptrends on Monday-Tuesday, but fell back after the Fed meeting and declined on Thursday. Even though a post-Fed decline may seem negative, it could be just a little buy-the-rumor and sell-the-news at work. In addition, the fiscal cliff circus continues to... READ MORE
Stocks retreated after the Fed announcement. Of course, the fiscal cliff deadlock got the blame. Never mind that the S&P 500 was up some 6% from its mid November lows and ripe for a pullback or consolidation. Thursday's decline was not enough to reverse the short-... READ MORE
With the consumer staples sector showing some relative strength on Thursday, I went to the sector summary to find the strong industry groups within this sector. The image below shows the 10 industry groups with the DJ US Drug Retailers Index ($DJUSRD) leading the way. Users can click on the... READ MORE
Stocks were all over the place on Wednesday. The major index ETFs opened strong, pulled back in the late morning, surged after the Fed announcement and pulled back again in the final hour. The end result was mixed as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 Equal-... READ MORE
AMT Breaks out to a 52-week High. CCL Forms Ascending Triangle within Uptrend. Plus DHI, M, STLD This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
The NYSE AD Line ($NYAD) reflects broad market strength with a move above the September-October highs this week. In fact, the indicator is trading at a 52-week high. There are no signs of weakness here. Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
The bulls kept up the pressure on Tuesday with the technology sector leading the charge. The Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) led tech stocks with a 2.71% surge. There was also strength in the Airline ETF (FAA), which advanced 2% and hit a new 52-week high (intraday). Elsewhere, the Steel... READ MORE
The technology sector is showing upside leadership with the average stock gaining 1.3% on Tuesday. The red ovals highlight the top five stocks in the S&P 500 today. Three of the top five are in the consumer discretionary sector, one comes from the sector and one from... READ MORE
Stocks edged higher in mixed trading. The major index ETFs ended the day with small gains, but the sectors were split. In particular, the Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) edged lower, while the Technology SPDR (XLK) and the Industrials SPDR (XLI) moved higher. Buoyed by recent... READ MORE
ATVI Forms Bull Flag at Resistance. CHRW Consolidates with Triangle. Plus BMY, BSX, CRM, MDR, VIP This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
After a surge from mid to late November, Expeditors International (EXPD) hit resistance from the early November high around 38. A falling flag formed into early December and the stock broke flag resistance with a surge above 38 on Monday. This signals a continuation of the prior advance and the... READ MORE
Stocks remain dazed and confused. After falling sharply the first two weeks of November, stocks bottomed in mid November and surged the next two weeks. These gains wiped out the early November losses and made it as if November never really happened. Despite this strong rally, stocks hit a wall... READ MORE
Gasoline Jan13 (^RBF13) formed a lower high and broke support with a sharp decline this week. First, notice that the trend since mid September is down with a series of lower lows and lower highs taking shape the last few months. This week's breakdown signals a continuation of... READ MORE
Apple (AAPL) tested its mid November low and long-term support with a dip below 520 on Thursday. Support in the 520 area extends back to the May low. Notice how the stock forged an intraday reversal for the second time in two months. Also notice that volume exceeded 40... READ MORE