Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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Quantitative Easing and the S&P 500 Since 2008

Quantitative Easing and the S&P 500 Since 2008

Stocks surged on Thursday after the Fed announced another round of quantitative easing, and extended their gains on Friday. Obviously, the stock market is pleased with the announcement. The chart below shows the S&P 500 since September 2008 and the yellow areas mark the beginning-end of the prior...   READ MORE 

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Several 52-week Highs Grace the Technical Alerts Page

Several 52-week Highs Grace the Technical Alerts Page

StocksCharts.com has a new technical alerts page that shows key milestones for dozens of ETFs and indices. On Thursday, September 13th, note that 10 securities recorded new 52-week highs. These include the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Dow, S&P 500 and six sector SPDRs. Click this image for a...   READ MORE 

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New Highs Reinforce Bullish Indicators

New Highs Reinforce Bullish Indicators

With new highs in the major index ETFs, there is little doubt where the bulk of the evidence lies. The bulls are clearly in charge of this market right now. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high, the NYSE AD Volume Line is near its spring high and NYSE...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Becomes Even More Oversold as Stocks Surge

Dollar Becomes Even More Oversold as Stocks Surge

Judging from the reaction, it appears that the stock market is quite happy with a third round of quantitative easing. The major index ETFs surged with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) gaining around 1.5%. All sectors were up with the Finance SPDR...   READ MORE 

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Semiconductor ETF Tests Two Key Moving Averages SMH

Semiconductor ETF Tests Two Key Moving Averages SMH

After a big surge above 33, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) peaked in mid August and declined back to support in the 32.50 area. Support here stems form broken resistance, the rising 200-day SMA and the rising 50-day SMA. A successful test and break above 33 would be...   READ MORE 

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Weakness in Treasuries and the Dollar is Positive for Stocks

Weakness in Treasuries and the Dollar is Positive for Stocks

Stocks meandered again on Wednesday and then closed with small gains. All of the major index ETFs were up with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way (up a mere .52%). Six of the nine sectors were higher with the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Technology SPDR...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ADBE, GRMN, LUV, QCOM, SKUL

Charts of Interest: ADBE, GRMN, LUV, QCOM, SKUL

ADBE Hits Resistance in Gap Zone. LUV Forms Triangle after Surge. Plus GRMN, QCOM, SKUL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves...   READ MORE 

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Coffee Surges off Support with Big Move

Coffee Surges off Support with Big Move

The chart in the main window shows December Coffee Futures ($KCZ12) finding support above the June low and surging above the late August high. The indicator window shows the Coffee ETN (JO) with a similar pattern. These breakouts are bullish as long they hold. A move back below the breakout...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Falls Back as Apple Event Looms

QQQ Falls Back as Apple Event Looms

Stocks meandered around in positive territory on Monday and ended the day with small gains. A little indecision is understandable given the recent gains and the news flow over the next few days. Key happenings include the German constiutional court ruling and the Apple event today, the FOMC policy statement...   READ MORE 

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XLK Starts Underperforming - TLT Hits Key Retracement

XLK Starts Underperforming - TLT Hits Key Retracement

Stocks moved lower on Monday as traders booked some profits from last week's rally. The Nasdaq 100 ETF led the way lower as Apple's big event approaches. Apple investors appear to be getting cold feet as the stock fell over 2% on Monday. The Russell 2000...   READ MORE 

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Charts: BOOM, BRCM, CSX, DUK, KLAC, MCHP, MDR

Charts: BOOM, BRCM, CSX, DUK, KLAC, MCHP, MDR

BOOM forms large descending triangle. KLAC gaps and forms bear flag. Plus BRCM, CSX, DUK, MCHP, MDR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Extends Downtrend and Becomes Oversold

Dollar Extends Downtrend and Becomes Oversold

Stocks extended their gains on Friday and the S&P 500 finished with its biggest weekly gain since early July. This key benchmark index cleared its spring highs and closed at a 52-week high on Friday. Five of the nine sector SPDRs were up on Friday. The technology sector...   READ MORE 

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Dow Challenges Spring Highs on 30pt Point & Figure Chart

Dow Challenges Spring Highs on 30pt Point & Figure Chart

The P&F chart below shows the Dow Industrials using 30 points per box and a three box reversal method. With the August dip and September surge, the Dow is challenging the prior highs and tracing out a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A break above these highs opens the...   READ MORE 

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Arch Coal Leads Resurgent Coal Group

Arch Coal Leads Resurgent Coal Group

The coal group has been one of the worse performers this year, but coal stocks moved sharply higher the last two days. Arch Coal (ACI) is showing some signs of life with a falling wedge breakout on three days of good volume. The July-August highs mark the next resistance zone...   READ MORE 

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Net New Highs Surge on the NYSE and Nasdaq

Net New Highs Surge on the NYSE and Nasdaq

With a big surge on Thursday, stocks broke out of their funk and the indicator summary improved a notch. Techs continue to lead the market overall. The Nasdaq AD Line broke triangle resistance, Nasdaq Net New Highs surged to their highest levels since early July and the Technology SPDR (XLK)...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breaks Wedge Resistance with Gap - USO Tests Support

SPY Breaks Wedge Resistance with Gap - USO Tests Support

A mixed up Wall Street turned into a raving bull as stocks surged ahead of today's employment report. Rumor has it that Super Mario, Draghi, not Gabelli, inspired the bulls. It kind of makes the employment report an after thought. Consensus calls for non-farm payrolls to add 125,...   READ MORE 

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Sandisk and Micron Light Up the Tech Sector

Sandisk and Micron Light Up the Tech Sector

The technology sector is lighting up the market carpet with a sea of green. Notice that memory makers Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) are leading the charge. Both gapped higher on their price charts. Hard-disk maker Seagate (STX) is the only loser in this group. Click this image for a...   READ MORE 

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SPY Consolidation Looks Like a Fourth Wave

SPY Consolidation Looks Like a Fourth Wave

It was another mixed day on Wall Street as stocks meandered on either side of unchanged. The major index ETFs were mixed as well with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edging higher, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ACN, ANF, BCR, BG, HSP, XRX

Charts of Interest: ACN, ANF, BCR, BG, HSP, XRX

BCR Breaks Consolidation Resistance with Good Volume. XRX Forms Pennant Near Key Retracement. Plus ACN, ANF, BG, HSP This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to...   READ MORE 

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Ford Breaks Out as MACD Crosses above its Signal Line

Ford Breaks Out as MACD Crosses above its Signal Line

Ford (F) came across the bullish MACD scan as the MACD line moved above its signal line (9-day EMA of MACD). On the price chart, F formed a falling wedge at the end of August and broke wedge resistance with a surge the last three days. The late August low...   READ MORE 

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IWM Breaks Triangle Resistance and Shows Relative Strength

IWM Breaks Triangle Resistance and Shows Relative Strength

Economic reports triggered some early selling pressure, but stocks managed to rebound with small-caps leading the charge. The ISM Manufacturing Index showed weakness as the key indicator dipped below 50 (49.6). Anything below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This was further exasperated by weakness in construction...   READ MORE 

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Aroon Crosses Bearish for the Industrials SPDR

Aroon Crosses Bearish for the Industrials SPDR

The Industrials SPDR (XLI) is under pressure today after a weak manufacturing report. The chart below shows XLI falling to a support zone marked by broken resistance and the June trend line. This sets up an important test because the Aroon down crossed above Aroon green and hit +100 for...   READ MORE 

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Gold and Oil Surge as Stocks Extend Consolidation

Gold and Oil Surge as Stocks Extend Consolidation

The major index ETFs surged the first two weeks of August and then consolidated the last two weeks. With the medium-term trends clearly up, the odds favor a bullish resolution to these consolidations. However, we could see some serious volatility in the coming weeks as the news flow surges in...   READ MORE 

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Charts: AA, AMTD, APC, DHR, EA, MSFT, UNM

Charts: AA, AMTD, APC, DHR, EA, MSFT, UNM

AA Firms at 61.80% Retracement. EA Surges off Broken Resistance with Big Volume. Plus AMTD, APC, DHR, MSFT, UNM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all...   READ MORE 

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NET NEW HIGHS WEAKEN BUT REMAIN POSITIVE AND BULLISH OVERALL

NET NEW HIGHS WEAKEN BUT REMAIN POSITIVE AND BULLISH OVERALL

Even though the S&P 1500 Index ($EIS) is trading near its spring highs and within a few percent of a 52-week high, Net New Highs have shown less strength since early July and divergences have formed. Keep in mind that less strength is not the same as weakness....   READ MORE 

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Nasdaq Summation Index Struggles at Zero Line

Nasdaq Summation Index Struggles at Zero Line

The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) rebounded in July and then hit resistance near the zero line in July-August. The indicator is still moving higher because it is above its 10-day EMA. A break below this EMA would signal a downturn and be bearish for Nasdaq breadth. Click this image for...   READ MORE 

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Net New Highs Weaken and Volatility Indices Surge

Net New Highs Weaken and Volatility Indices Surge

The top pickers are circling the wagons as we roll into September, October, the election, the fiscal cliff, a Euro crisis and a Chinese slow down. Even though this is enough to push one to the sidelines, keep in mind that most of this is probably already priced into the...   READ MORE 

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Techs Lead Lower as QQQ Gaps Below Triangle Support

Techs Lead Lower as QQQ Gaps Below Triangle Support

Stocks pulled back as traders moved aside ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole this morning. Truth be told, I think the three economic reports are more important that his speech, which will probably walk a fine line and repeat the last FOMC policy statement. Factory...   READ MORE 

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Monsanto and Corn Moving Step-for-Step

Monsanto and Corn Moving Step-for-Step

The chart below shows Monsanto (MON) with black candlesticks and the Corn ETF ($CORN) as a red dashed line. Notice how these two fell together in April and early May, and then surged together in June and July. The Correlation Coefficient confirms this relationship with a positive reading since mid...   READ MORE 

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IWM Starts Outperforming - UUP Firms Near Support

IWM Starts Outperforming - UUP Firms Near Support

Trading volume is low, the last two dog days of summer are here, we are heading into a three day weekend and Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking from Jackson Hole at 10AM tomorrow. The first three items argue for another listless session. The fourth item, Chairman Bernanke, is clearly the...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AMCC, AMAT, EMC, FISV, FLEX, MSI

Charts of Interest: AMCC, AMAT, EMC, FISV, FLEX, MSI

EMC Forms Pennant after Double Bottom Breakout. FISV Recovers after Island Reversal. Plus AMCC, AMAT, FLEX, MSI This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think...   READ MORE 

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October Sugar Bounces off Support as StochRSI Surges

October Sugar Bounces off Support as StochRSI Surges

October Sugar fell sharply the last five weeks, but found support near the June lows and surged on Tuesday. The indicator window shows StochRSI moving below .20 it late July and remaining below .50 as the downtrend extended into late August. The surge above .80 shows an upside momentum thrust....   READ MORE 

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XRT Holds Channel Breakout - SPY Holds Wedge Breakout

XRT Holds Channel Breakout - SPY Holds Wedge Breakout

Stocks remained mixed and directionless on Tuesday. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edged lower, while the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) edged higher. The latter two were up around a 1/2 percent. Three sectors were...   READ MORE 

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Internet and Electronic Office Equipment Lead Tech Sector

Internet and Electronic Office Equipment Lead Tech Sector

Browsing through the technology sector via the sector summary reveals relative strength coming from the internet ($DJUSNS) and electronic office equipment ($DJUSOE) groups. Baidu (BIDU) is up for internet and Xerox (XRX) is leading office equipment. Click this image for a live chart...   READ MORE 

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Finance BPI Continues to Climb - SPY Holds Wedge Breakout

Finance BPI Continues to Climb - SPY Holds Wedge Breakout

Stocks were all mixed up with no place to go on Monday. Techs and small-caps showed some strength as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edged higher. These miniscule gains were offset by small losses in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Dow...   READ MORE 

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Charts: CERN, CTXS, FFIV, IMN, JDSU, LIFE, UEC, UPS

Charts: CERN, CTXS, FFIV, IMN, JDSU, LIFE, UEC, UPS

CTXS Forms Flag at Key Retracement. UPS Hits Resistance in Retracement Zone. Plus CERN, FFIV, IMN, JDSU, LIFE, UEC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need...   READ MORE 

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Procter & Gamble Hits New High to Lead Consumer Staples

Procter & Gamble Hits New High to Lead Consumer Staples

Procter & Gamble (PG), the biggest component in the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), surged above pennant resistance and recorded a 52-week high on Monday. The stock is medium-term overbought after a huge advance the last 10 weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend with first support at 66. Click this...   READ MORE 

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Shanghai Composite Hit New Low as SPX hits New High

Shanghai Composite Hit New Low as SPX hits New High

Comments from Fed chairman Bernanke boosted stocks on Friday as the major index ETFs closed with modest gains. Despite Friday's bounce, the major index ETFs closed lower for the week. This is not surprising because stocks were overbought to start the week and a few indices hit new...   READ MORE 

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StockCharts Technical Rank Hits 2012 Low for Intel

StockCharts Technical Rank Hits 2012 Low for Intel

Index was hit hard over the last three days and is poised to test its May-June-July lows. The price relative and SCTR were hit even harder as both broke below their July lows. These two confirm relative weakness in this key semiconductor stock. With an SCTR score of 19.3,...   READ MORE 

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Nasdaq AD Volume Line Forms Lower High

Nasdaq AD Volume Line Forms Lower High

Stockspulled back this week, but the bigger trends remain up and the bulk of the evidence still favors the bulls. Three days of weakness does not a trend change make, especially when stocks were overbought to start the week. The NYSE AD Line remains in an uptrend, Net New Highs...   READ MORE