Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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SPY Bounces off Short-Term Support - GLD Surges

SPY Bounces off Short-Term Support - GLD Surges

Stocks rebounded across the board with the hardest hit groups getting the biggest pops. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the way with a 1.38% bounce. Eight of nine sectors were up with energy leading the way on the heels of a big oversold bounce in crude. The utilities...   READ MORE 

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PC Related Stocks are Having a Tough Time on the PerfChart

PC Related Stocks are Having a Tough Time on the PerfChart

The PerfChart below shows three month performance for two chip makers (Intel and AMD), two PC-related companies (Dell and Hewlett Packard) and mister softy (Microsoft). Only Microsoft is up during this period, and just barely. The others are having a really difficult time, even with the S&P...   READ MORE 

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SPY Tests Short-Term Support as IWM Breaks Support

SPY Tests Short-Term Support as IWM Breaks Support

Stocks continued lower with modest losses in the major index ETFs. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the way lower with a .81% decline. Eight of nine sectors moved lower with energy and technology leading the way. The defensive sectors held up the best with the utilities sector providing the...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AA, AMX, DLTR, MMM, MSFT, NVDA

Charts of Interest: AA, AMX, DLTR, MMM, MSFT, NVDA

AA Returns to Breakout for Big Test. AMX Firms with Good Upside Volume. Plus DLTR, MMM, MSFT, NVDA This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all...   READ MORE 

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Metals & Mining SPDR Forms Spinning Top At Broken Resistance

Metals & Mining SPDR Forms Spinning Top At Broken Resistance

The battle for the breakout is on as the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) declined to broken resistance and formed a big spinning top. These candlesticks show serious indecision. XME broke resistance in early September and is now trying to decide if this breakout is worth holding or not. Watch...   READ MORE 

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IWM and QQQ Start to Lead Lower - TLT Extends Uptrend

IWM and QQQ Start to Lead Lower - TLT Extends Uptrend

Stocks ended their meandering ways with some downside direction on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the way lower with losses around 1.4%. All nine sectors were lower with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Finance SPDR (XLF) leading the way. The defensive sectors...   READ MORE 

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Gold Miners Junior forms Gap-Doji-Gap Reversal

Gold Miners Junior forms Gap-Doji-Gap Reversal

After a big run from late July to mid September, the Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) formed a bearish candlestick reversal over the last 4-5 days. First, there was the gap and doji. This signaled sudden indecision after a big jump. Second, selling pressure followed this indecision as the...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Gaps Down - TLT Holds Short-Term Uptrend

QQQ Gaps Down - TLT Holds Short-Term Uptrend

Stocks continued their meandering ways on Monday. There is, however, a slight downward slant in this meandering. IWM and SPY peaked on 14-Sept and worked their way lower the last six days. QQQ, which marches to the Apple beat, is trading below the 14-Sep levels, but has been...   READ MORE 

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Charts: ADM, APOL, CMS, CNL, TE, TEVA, TYC, WCRX, XRAY

Charts: ADM, APOL, CMS, CNL, TE, TEVA, TYC, WCRX, XRAY

AMAT Breaks Support with Gap. TE Surges on Good Volume. Plus ADM, APOL, CMS, CNL, TEVA, TYC, WCRX, XRAY This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...   READ MORE 

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SPY Forms Bearish Meeting Lines Candlestick Pattern

SPY Forms Bearish Meeting Lines Candlestick Pattern

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed a rare bearish candlestick reversal pattern over the last two days. The Bearish Meeting Lines pattern forms with a white candlestick and a black candlestick that have relatively equal closes. In particular, the black candlestick reflects a strong open and a weak...   READ MORE 

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SPY Extends Stall as USO Breaks Down

SPY Extends Stall as USO Breaks Down

Last week was the week that was not. Stocks surged on Thursday, September 13th, and then stalled the next six days. This indecisive period started as SPY formed a shooting start on Friday, September 14th. The ETF formed small candlesticks on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday's open was...   READ MORE 

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Dow Transports Tests Major Support Level and Dow Theory

Dow Transports Tests Major Support Level and Dow Theory

The Dow Transports surged to resistance last week and plunged to support this week. Overall, the junior Average has been stuck in a trading range since mid June with support at 4900 and resistance around 5250. A break below 4900 would be clearly bearish for the Average and negative for...   READ MORE 

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Indicator Summary Remains Positive as Stocks Stall

Indicator Summary Remains Positive as Stocks Stall

With new highs last week and flat trading this week, there is no change in the indicator summary. Even though the bulk of the evidence remains bullish, I am concerned with overbought conditions and some extremes starting to appear in the sentiment indicators. The $VIX moved below 15% and the...   READ MORE 

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SMH Breaks Flag Support - GLD Forms Pennant

SMH Breaks Flag Support - GLD Forms Pennant

Thursday marked the fourth uneventful day this week as stocks finished mixed yet again. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and S&P 100 ETF (OEF) edged higher, but the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY) closed modestly lower. In fact, we have definitely seen...   READ MORE 

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Stocks and Commodities Show Strong Positive Correlation

Stocks and Commodities Show Strong Positive Correlation

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Commodity Index Fund ($DBC) have been positively correlated for almost all of the last 12 months. As the indicator window shows, the Correlation Coefficient (SPY,DBC) dipped into negative territory only twice and spent most of the time above .50. The...   READ MORE 

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SPY Stumbles after Flag Break - USO Breaks Support

SPY Stumbles after Flag Break - USO Breaks Support

Stocks finished the day mixed on Wednesday as indecision extended for the third day running. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edged lower, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed fractionally higher. The sectors were mixed with six up and three down. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) led the...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: BOOM, CIEN, DAN, INTU, NKE

Charts of Interest: BOOM, CIEN, DAN, INTU, NKE

The Noose Narrows for BOOM. Downside Volume Expands for NKE. Plus CIEN, DAN, INTU This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for...   READ MORE 

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Oversold XLU Triggers Triple Bottom Breakdown on P&F Chart

Oversold XLU Triggers Triple Bottom Breakdown on P&F Chart

The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is by far the weakest of the nine sector SPDRs right now. The P&F chart below uses daily price data and each box is valued at .30%. The ETF broke the Bullish Support Line in August, consolidated and then broke below the prior two...   READ MORE 

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SPY Forms Falling Flag - GLD Consolidates at High Level

SPY Forms Falling Flag - GLD Consolidates at High Level

The stock index ETFs continued to drift on Tuesday. After the surge from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning, stocks have been drifting for almost three days. Such a drift is not uncommon after a big move. These consolidations give the market time to digest its gains and provide the bulls...   READ MORE 

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Norfolk Southern Falls Sharply From Resistance

Norfolk Southern Falls Sharply From Resistance

Norfolk Southern (NSC) is a railroad company and a key part of the Dow Transports. The chart below shows NSC hitting resistance around 75 and falling over 1% today. Notice that MACD barely made it back in positive territory on the last bounce. Another downturn from here would surely turn...   READ MORE 

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SPY Could be in the Fifth of the Fifth, but Uptrend Rules for Now

SPY Could be in the Fifth of the Fifth, but Uptrend Rules for Now

The major index ETFs are in uptrends and overbought. In general, it is much better to pick bottoms than tops in uptrend. Even though SPY, QQQ and IWM are overbought and ripe for a pullback, picking a short-term top is challenging when the bigger trend is clearly up. Overbought...   READ MORE 

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Charts: BA, CHK, DAL, NVDA, POT, SBUX, TYC

Charts: BA, CHK, DAL, NVDA, POT, SBUX, TYC

BA Underperforms with Support Break. POT Challenges Channel Resistance. Plus CHK, DAL, NVDA, POT, SBUX, TYC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to...   READ MORE 

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Eight of Nine Sector Bullish Percent Indices are Trending Higher

Eight of Nine Sector Bullish Percent Indices are Trending Higher

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) shows the percentage of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals within a specific group. Even though bulls have the edge when the BPI is above 50%, chartists also need to watch the direction of the BPI. The image below shows six sector BPI charts...   READ MORE 

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Stocks are Overbought and Dollar/Treasuries are Oversold

Stocks are Overbought and Dollar/Treasuries are Oversold

Is it really this easy? Does another round of quantitative easing insure higher equity prices over the next few months? Well, the stock market agrees as the major index ETFs hit new highs last week and remain in clear uptrends. Also note that stocks were strong during prior periods of...   READ MORE 

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Quantitative Easing and the S&P 500 Since 2008

Quantitative Easing and the S&P 500 Since 2008

Stocks surged on Thursday after the Fed announced another round of quantitative easing, and extended their gains on Friday. Obviously, the stock market is pleased with the announcement. The chart below shows the S&P 500 since September 2008 and the yellow areas mark the beginning-end of the...   READ MORE 

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Several 52-week Highs Grace the Technical Alerts Page

Several 52-week Highs Grace the Technical Alerts Page

StocksCharts.com has a new technical alerts page that shows key milestones for dozens of ETFs and indices. On Thursday, September 13th, note that 10 securities recorded new 52-week highs. These include the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Dow, S&P 500 and six sector SPDRs. Click this image for...   READ MORE 

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New Highs Reinforce Bullish Indicators

New Highs Reinforce Bullish Indicators

With new highs in the major index ETFs, there is little doubt where the bulk of the evidence lies. The bulls are clearly in charge of this market right now. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high, the NYSE AD Volume Line is near its spring high and NYSE...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Becomes Even More Oversold as Stocks Surge

Dollar Becomes Even More Oversold as Stocks Surge

Judging from the reaction, it appears that the stock market is quite happy with a third round of quantitative easing. The major index ETFs surged with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) gaining around 1.5%. All sectors were up with the Finance SPDR...   READ MORE 

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Semiconductor ETF Tests Two Key Moving Averages SMH

Semiconductor ETF Tests Two Key Moving Averages SMH

After a big surge above 33, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) peaked in mid August and declined back to support in the 32.50 area. Support here stems form broken resistance, the rising 200-day SMA and the rising 50-day SMA. A successful test and break above 33...   READ MORE 

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Weakness in Treasuries and the Dollar is Positive for Stocks

Weakness in Treasuries and the Dollar is Positive for Stocks

Stocks meandered again on Wednesday and then closed with small gains. All of the major index ETFs were up with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way (up a mere .52%). Six of the nine sectors were higher with the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Technology SPDR...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ADBE, GRMN, LUV, QCOM, SKUL

Charts of Interest: ADBE, GRMN, LUV, QCOM, SKUL

ADBE Hits Resistance in Gap Zone. LUV Forms Triangle after Surge. Plus GRMN, QCOM, SKUL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think...   READ MORE 

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Coffee Surges off Support with Big Move

Coffee Surges off Support with Big Move

The chart in the main window shows December Coffee Futures ($KCZ12) finding support above the June low and surging above the late August high. The indicator window shows the Coffee ETN (JO) with a similar pattern. These breakouts are bullish as long they hold. A move back below the breakout...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Falls Back as Apple Event Looms

QQQ Falls Back as Apple Event Looms

Stocks meandered around in positive territory on Monday and ended the day with small gains. A little indecision is understandable given the recent gains and the news flow over the next few days. Key happenings include the German constiutional court ruling and the Apple event today, the FOMC policy statement...   READ MORE 

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XLK Starts Underperforming - TLT Hits Key Retracement

XLK Starts Underperforming - TLT Hits Key Retracement

Stocks moved lower on Monday as traders booked some profits from last week's rally. The Nasdaq 100 ETF led the way lower as Apple's big event approaches. Apple investors appear to be getting cold feet as the stock fell over 2% on Monday. The Russell 2000...   READ MORE 

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Charts: BOOM, BRCM, CSX, DUK, KLAC, MCHP, MDR

Charts: BOOM, BRCM, CSX, DUK, KLAC, MCHP, MDR

BOOM forms large descending triangle. KLAC gaps and forms bear flag. Plus BRCM, CSX, DUK, MCHP, MDR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need...   READ MORE 

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Dollar Extends Downtrend and Becomes Oversold

Dollar Extends Downtrend and Becomes Oversold

Stocks extended their gains on Friday and the S&P 500 finished with its biggest weekly gain since early July. This key benchmark index cleared its spring highs and closed at a 52-week high on Friday. Five of the nine sector SPDRs were up on Friday. The technology...   READ MORE 

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Dow Challenges Spring Highs on 30pt Point & Figure Chart

Dow Challenges Spring Highs on 30pt Point & Figure Chart

The P&F chart below shows the Dow Industrials using 30 points per box and a three box reversal method. With the August dip and September surge, the Dow is challenging the prior highs and tracing out a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A break above these highs...   READ MORE 

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Arch Coal Leads Resurgent Coal Group

Arch Coal Leads Resurgent Coal Group

The coal group has been one of the worse performers this year, but coal stocks moved sharply higher the last two days. Arch Coal (ACI) is showing some signs of life with a falling wedge breakout on three days of good volume. The July-August highs mark the next resistance...   READ MORE 

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Net New Highs Surge on the NYSE and Nasdaq

Net New Highs Surge on the NYSE and Nasdaq

With a big surge on Thursday, stocks broke out of their funk and the indicator summary improved a notch. Techs continue to lead the market overall. The Nasdaq AD Line broke triangle resistance, Nasdaq Net New Highs surged to their highest levels since early July and the Technology SPDR (XLK)...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breaks Wedge Resistance with Gap - USO Tests Support

SPY Breaks Wedge Resistance with Gap - USO Tests Support

A mixed up Wall Street turned into a raving bull as stocks surged ahead of today's employment report. Rumor has it that Super Mario, Draghi, not Gabelli, inspired the bulls. It kind of makes the employment report an after thought. Consensus calls for non-farm payrolls to add...   READ MORE