Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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Lots of Red in the European Market Carpet

Lots of Red in the European Market Carpet

StockCharts.com offers a Market Carpet covering component stocks for seven European Indices. Chartists can look at all seven or click the title bar to focus on one. The image below focuses on the Euronext 100. There is a lot of red today with banks representing three of the five...   READ MORE 

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SPY Falls Short of Prior High as TLT and UUP Bounce off Support

SPY Falls Short of Prior High as TLT and UUP Bounce off Support

The price swings are getting shorter as the triangle tightens in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). While it is hard to act on every swing within the triangle, this is the only way to anticipate the triangle breakout. Those not acting on the internal swings, would simply wait...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ADBE, APOL, FISV, GCI, ISIL, PG, SCHL

Charts of Interest: ADBE, APOL, FISV, GCI, ISIL, PG, SCHL

ADBE forms Rising Wedge after Big Gap Down. GCI Hits Resistance at Key Retracement. PG Consolidates at Trendline Support.   Plus APOL, FISV, ISIL, SCHL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security...   READ MORE 

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Altera Forms Falling Wedge on Lower Volume

Altera Forms Falling Wedge on Lower Volume

After a surge with good volume in October, Altera (ALTR) corrected with a falling wedge the last 2-3 weeks. Also notice that the stock exceeded its September high with the October surge. The falling wedge looks corrective and a break above last week's high would signal a...   READ MORE 

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SPY Holds Support at a Triangle Takes Shape

SPY Holds Support at a Triangle Takes Shape

As noted on Friday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is in a medium-term uptrend after the October breakout in the 122-124 area. Broken resistance turns into support and the ETF tested this support zone with sharp declines in November. Both declines were punctuated by down gaps,...   READ MORE 

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Resistance Turns Support Turns Resistance Again for the German DAX

Resistance Turns Support Turns Resistance Again for the German DAX

Traditional technical analysis teaches us that broken resistance turns support and broken support turns resistance. This concept is alive and well on the German DAX Index ($DAX) chart. Using the Auto Support-Resistance Tool on Sharpcharts, a horizontal line at 6400 goes from red to green to red again as...   READ MORE 

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ADI Hits Support on Point & Figure Chart

ADI Hits Support on Point & Figure Chart

After plunging along with the market early this week, Analog Devices (ADI is trading at support from the early November lows. On this P&F chart, each box represents a quarter percent price change (.25%) and price data is based on the close every 30 minutes. Yes, this is...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Consolidate as Surging Oil Prices Weigh on Treasuries

Stocks Consolidate as Surging Oil Prices Weigh on Treasuries

Technically, SPY is in a medium-term uptrend after the October breakout in the 122-124 area. This breakout can be seen on the daily chart below. Broken resistance turns into support and the ETF is currently testing this support zone with two declines into the 122-124 area. After...   READ MORE 

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Indicator Summary Remains Bullish as Breakouts Hold

Indicator Summary Remains Bullish as Breakouts Hold

There is no change in the indicator summary as the October breakouts continue to hold. Even though the stock market got shook pretty hard last week and this week, these breakouts are still holding. We cannot question a breakout unless there is a move back below broken resistance. For example,...   READ MORE 

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DIA Solidifies Resistance with Two Gaps

DIA Solidifies Resistance with Two Gaps

For the second time in three weeks, the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) moved above 121 and then gapped down. These two gaps indicate that DIA has stiff resistance in the 122 area. Key support is based on the prior trough at 116. Follow through below this level would reverse the...   READ MORE 

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SPY Gaps Down Big as UUP Breaks Flag Resistance

SPY Gaps Down Big as UUP Breaks Flag Resistance

Global equities remain tethered to the Euro and the outlook for the European debt dilemma. Even though a big ocean separates the US from Europe, US traders and investors should keep an eye on the spread between German bond yields and other bond yields, namely Italian and Spanish. This is...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: EXPD, GE, JBHT, IGT, PLCE

Charts of Interest: EXPD, GE, JBHT, IGT, PLCE

IGT Forms Large Shooting Star. JBHT Hits Resistance at 61.80% Retracement. PLCE Declines from Resistance on High Volume. Plus EXPD and GE This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breaks Consolidation as UUP Remains in Bull Flag

SPY Breaks Consolidation as UUP Remains in Bull Flag

As noted yesterday, the medium-term trend was up because of the resistance breakout in October. This breakout can be seen on a daily chart. Broken resistance in the 122-124 area turned into support and held after the Throwback. The yellow area marks this Throwback on the 60-minute...   READ MORE 

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Regional Bank SPDR and Homebuilder SPDR Advance Step-for-Step

Regional Bank SPDR and Homebuilder SPDR Advance Step-for-Step

The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) and the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) have been leading the market higher since early October. Both bottomed with the October 3rd close and surged over 20% the last five weeks. Also notice how these two are moving step-for-step. KRE is red and XHB is...   READ MORE 

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QQQ and USO Break Flag Resistance

QQQ and USO Break Flag Resistance

Even though SPY formed a bearish rising flag after the plunge to 122, the ETF has yet to break support as a flat consolidation formed the last few days. The ETF broke below the lower trendline of the rising flag on Friday, but quickly rebounded to establish support at 124....   READ MORE 

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Charts: AMKR, BSX, COST, KGC, MDT, NVDA, SWKS, WNR

Charts: AMKR, BSX, COST, KGC, MDT, NVDA, SWKS, WNR

AMKR Forms Ascending Triangle. COST Consolidates Near Resistance. SWKS Breaks Flag Trendline with high Volume. Plus BSX, KGC, MDT, NVDA, WNR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or...   READ MORE 

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Randgold Leads Gold with a 52-week High

Randgold Leads Gold with a 52-week High

Randgold Resources (GOLD) is leading the gold miners and gold with a new 52-week high the last few days. Also note that Randgold broke resistance with a move above 115. The indicator window shows Randgold relative to gold with a ratio plot (GOLD:$GOLD). The Price Relative is trending...   READ MORE 

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WATCHING THE RESISTANCE BREAKOUTS IN XLK AND XLY

WATCHING THE RESISTANCE BREAKOUTS IN XLK AND XLY

Earlier this week I noted that the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the Russell 2000 ETF and the S&P 500 ETF were testing broken resistance. The October surges produced breakouts and it is important that these resistance breakouts hold. Basic technical analysis teaches us that broken resistance levels turn into...   READ MORE 

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Apple Consolidates after a Gap Down

Apple Consolidates after a Gap Down

Apple Corp (AAPL), which accounts for around 14% of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), gapped down in mid October and then consolidated. This low volume consolidation now looks like a flat flag. Watch the boundaries for the next directional clue. Any move Apple will affect QQQ. Click this chart for...   READ MORE 

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Gold and Oil ETFs Lead the Week

Gold and Oil ETFs Lead the Week

The PerfChart below shows the performance for five intermarket ETFs. The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the US Oil Fund (USO) sport the biggest gains and are clearly leading the group. The 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) and US Dollar Fund (UUP) have the smallest gains and are lagging. Such relative...   READ MORE 

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Nasdaq Weighs on Indicator Summary

Nasdaq Weighs on Indicator Summary

The indicator summary remains positive, but breadth is split with the Nasdaq showing less strength. After some weakness early in the week, stocks rebounded on Wednesday-Thursday and the major index ETFs are largely holding their October breakouts. This selling pressure was enough to push Nasdaq net new highs into...   READ MORE 

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TLT and UUP Form Bullish Continuation Patterns

TLT and UUP Form Bullish Continuation Patterns

And now for the employment report...Friday's market is at the mercy of the employment report, or rather Wall Street's reaction to the report. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bounced off medium-term support in the 122-124 area with a move above 126...   READ MORE 

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Broken Resistance Turns Support for Regional Bank SPDR

Broken Resistance Turns Support for Regional Bank SPDR

The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) broke resistance with the October surge and broken resistance turned into support. This is a basic tenet of technical analysis. The throwback to broken resistance held (so far) as the ETF bounced back above 23 on Wednesday. Click this chart for a live image...   READ MORE 

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Gold Holds Support as Bonds and the Dollar Surge

Gold Holds Support as Bonds and the Dollar Surge

A couple of wrenches, which were thrown out of left field, landed in the flywheel on Monday and Tuesday. While I am not sure the MF Global debacle and Greek referendum are totally to blame for the two day meltdown, there is no questioning the extent of recent selling pressure....   READ MORE 

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QQQ and IWM Consolidated at Support with Rising Flags

QQQ and IWM Consolidated at Support with Rising Flags

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke support with a gap down and then consolidated around 122-124. This zone marks support on the daily chart. Broken resistance from the late August and mid September peaks turns support on this chart. On the 60-minute chart, the rise over...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: DELL, FNSR, MRVL, PEP, SBUX, WFC

Charts of Interest: DELL, FNSR, MRVL, PEP, SBUX, WFC

FNSR Breaks Wedge Trendline with Volume. PEP Consolidates after Surge. SBUX Gaps Down and the Gap Remains Unfilled. Plus DELL, MRVL, WFC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF...   READ MORE 

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A Failed Breakout and Island Reversal for MDY

A Failed Breakout and Island Reversal for MDY

With a gap down and sharp decline the last two days, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) failed to hold the resistance breakouts around 160. Also notice that the ETF formed an island reversal, Last Thursday's gap was countered by today's gap to create...   READ MORE 

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Oil Service HOLDRS Runs into Resistance after Gap

Oil Service HOLDRS Runs into Resistance after Gap

The Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) surged over 30% in October and hit resistance in the 137 area. Resistance here stems from broken support and the August highs.  This level also marks a 61.80% retracement of the prior decline and the ETF is quite overbought after the October run. Click...   READ MORE 

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Markets Make a Hard Risk-off Turn on Monday

Markets Make a Hard Risk-off Turn on Monday

The market made a statement on Monday. After a big risk-on move last week, the market made a hard turn towards risk-off on Monday. It is just one day, but a bad week would likely suggest that the medium-term bullish signals seen over the last two weeks...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AAPL, BAX, GME, NXY, SPLS

Charts of Interest: AAPL, BAX, GME, NXY, SPLS

AAPL Forms Bear Flag. GME Forms Shooting Star Near Resistance. Upside Volume Surges for NXY. Plus BAX and SPLS This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Become Overbought as Big Economic Week Looms

Stocks Become Overbought as Big Economic Week Looms

First, note that stocks remain in strong uptrends since the October 4th reversals. Second, the major index ETFs are quite overbought. IWM is up over 24% the last 19 days. SPY is up almost 17% and QQQ is up just over 15%. These are huge gains in just four weeks....   READ MORE 

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October is Clearly Risk-On Month with SPY and USO Leading

October is Clearly Risk-On Month with SPY and USO Leading

Chartists can measure the market's risk tolerance by comparing the simple line charts for four ETFs. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and US Oil Fund (USO) rise when risk is "on", while the 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) and US Dollar Fund (UUP) rise...   READ MORE 

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Indicator Summary Surges into Positive Territory

Indicator Summary Surges into Positive Territory

As noted last week, another strong move in the stock market would likely turn the indicator summary positive. That is indeed what we got, especially with Thursday's surge. The NYSE AD Line and Nasdaq AD Volume Line surged through resistance levels. New 52-week highs expanded as the...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Surge to Extend Uptrends and Overbought Conditions

Stocks Surge to Extend Uptrends and Overbought Conditions

Stocks surged on the open and closed strong with all boats rising. Small-caps and mid-caps led the advance, which shows a strong appetite for risk. All sectors were up with the Finance SPDR (XLF) surging almost 6%. Whether short covering or new buying, Thursday's advance is...   READ MORE 

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Indecision Creeps into the Steel ETF

Indecision Creeps into the Steel ETF

The Steel ETF (SLX) surged above its mid October high with a big move on Monday, but turned indecisive on Tuesday and Wednesday. Notice how Tuesday's candlestick was completely within the range of Monday's. The pattern here is a Harami. This indecision extended as Wednesday'...   READ MORE 

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Trading Turns Choppy, but SPY Uptrend Holds

Trading Turns Choppy, but SPY Uptrend Holds

Stocks started the day weak with large-cap techs leading the way lower early Wednesday. QQQ opened with a move below 56.5 and was down some 1.7% at one point. However, the bulls showed their resilience as stocks rallied back by the close. QQQ returned to positive territory....   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AFFX, AKAM, AMKR, MDR, SLB, WFT

Charts of Interest: AFFX, AKAM, AMKR, MDR, SLB, WFT

Careful, it is still earnings season. AKAM Forms Pennant after Big Surge. AMRK Consolidates with Triangle. SLB Forms Bull Flag after Trendline Break. Plus AFFX, MDR, WFT This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell...   READ MORE 

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Retail HOLDRS Forms Evening Doji Star Reversal

Retail HOLDRS Forms Evening Doji Star Reversal

After a surge to the early July high, the Retail HOLDRS (RTH) formed a rare evening doji star. This bearish candlestick reversal pattern features a white candlestick, a doji and a long black candlestick. There are gaps on either side of the doji. This doji has a long upper shadow,...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Fall Sharply as Treasuries and Gold Break Out

Stocks Fall Sharply as Treasuries and Gold Break Out

Do yourself a favor. Don't read about the EU summit. As Mickey Blue Eyes might say: Fuggedaboutit! Focus on the price charts. All known information is reflected in the charts. In fact, there is also likely a little bit of unknown information in the charts as well. Stocks...   READ MORE 

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Ciena Fails to Hold Breakout

Ciena Fails to Hold Breakout

Sometimes a failed signal is as good as a signal. Ciena (CIEN) broke resistance with a surge above 12.50 on Friday-Monday, but failed to hold this breakout after Tuesday's high-volume decline. A long black candlestick formed as the stock opened slightly lower, moved down throughout...   READ MORE