Despite a pop, drop and pop on Thursday, the short-term trend for stocks remains down. SPY opened above 117, but these gains did not last long as the ETF quickly dropped below 115. Selling pressure was actually pretty intense during the afternoon selloff. Even so, most of the losses were... READ MORE
The High-Yield Bond SPDR (JNK) has a strong positive correlation to the stock market. Notice that the Correlation Coefficient is consistently above the .50 level. This means that the Junk Bond ETF and the S&P 500 move in the same direction most of the time. It could, therefore,... READ MORE
Stocks continued their choppy ways with small and mid-caps leading the market lower on Wednesday. Oil, industrial metals and gold were also down sharply. The Dollar moved higher and US Treasuries were flat. The big trend for the stock market is down after the August breakdown, but trading since early... READ MORE
AET Reverses at Key Retracement. ANF Stalls after Gap. LULU Breaks Trendline with Gap Down. Plus JWN and MDT. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
With a strong open and weak close on Wednesday, hundres of stocks made the cut for the bearish engulfing scan (177 Nasdaq and 183 NYSE). The chart below shows Google ($GOOG) breaking wedge support last week and forming a bearish engulfing after a three day bounce. You can find more... READ MORE
What a mess. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been trading between 110 and 123 since early August (seven weeks). During this timeframe, the ETF has crossed the midpoint (116.50) at least 11 times. There have also been nine swings of at least five percent. This is... READ MORE
Recent volatility is making rare patterns not so rare. The chart below shows the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) with its second Island Reversal in as many months. The most recent pattern formed with a gap down on Thursday, a consolidation Friday-Monday and a big gap up today. Shorts on Thursday-Friday-Monday... READ MORE
Stocks surged on Monday with the finance, energy and materials sectors leading the way. These three were also the most oversold. While Net Advancing Volume was fairly strong, Net Advances for the Nasdaq and NYSE were not that strong. Net Advances equals advancing issues less declining issues. Showing Net Advances... READ MORE
CSCO Forms Inverse HS Pattern ELN Breaks Resistance with Volume. NVDA Declines to 61.80% retracement. Plus ABC, LRCX and WM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
September has not been nice for the broader market, but one key industry group is holding up quite well. The Semiconductor Index ($SOX) actually shows a gain month-to-date and shows relative strength. The S&P Retail Index shows a relatively small loss, as does the Airline Index ($XAL). Banks,... READ MORE
After a broad decline last week, stocks became short-term oversold and consolidated most of Thursday and Friday. This does nothing to change the short-term or medium-term downtrends. Overall, the medium-term trend is clearly down after a break below the September lows. For SPY, this area also marked neckline support for... READ MORE
The chart below shows the five key intermarket securities with each ranked on the right side of the chart. The US Dollar Index ($USD) and 30-Year US Treasury ($USB) are at the top (strongest), while the S&P 500 and Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) are at the bottom (weakest)... READ MORE
Needless to say, the indicator summary remains decidedly negative. With another sharp move lower this week, the SPY momentum indicators moved from neutral to bearish. The Nasdaq AD Line and NYSE AD Volume Line hit new lows this week. The volatility indices surged above 40 to confirm high levels of... READ MORE
Looks like everyone ran for the exit at the same time, whatever the reason. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke below the early September lows with a plunge below 112 intraday. There was a big gap below 114, an intraday dip below 112 and a last hour surge... READ MORE
Stocks were down sharply on Thursday with all sectors moving lower on the day. There were, however, a few select pockets of strength. These can be found by looking for shades of green in the market carpet. The image below shows the Consumer Staples sectors with a few gainers. Click... READ MORE
It is getting ugly. Asian and European stocks are down sharply. Gold, the Euro and oil are also down. The Dollar and US Treasuries are the only positive spots. It is a classic flight to safety or move to the risk-off trade. The Fed pretty much echoed the sentiments of... READ MORE
Altera (ALTR) is at its make-or-break point. The stock surged to the August highs with a rather strong move last week. This advance met resistance as the stock pulled back with a pennant last four days. Either the stock will fail at resistance or break out of the pennant to... READ MORE
In an about face, stocks started the day strong and sold off in the final hour. Perhaps even more telling, small-caps led the way lower with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) loosing 1.55% on the day. This is a negative sign to see small-caps lead lower. These stocks (companies)... READ MORE
Stocks sold off in the final hour with small-caps leading the way lower. As the market summary page shows, the S&P SmallCap 600 ($SML) and the Russell 2000 ($RUT) led the afternoon decline with losses greater than 1.5% on the day. Click this image for a live... READ MORE
Stocks started the day weak, but surged in the final hour on rumors of a Greek debt deal involving the European Central Bank (ECB), IMF and the European Commission. Gee, maybe we can find a few more organizations to throw into this rumor. In any case, these rumors and "... READ MORE
As Apple goes, so goes the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). Wall Street used to say the same thing about GM during its heyday. Apple surged to a new 52-week high and powered QQQ higher on Monday. The indicator window shows the Correlation Coefficient trading above .90 since mid August. Click... READ MORE
It could be a wild week in the markets. First, stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open. The Euro and oil are trading lower, while bonds and the Dollar are trading higher. Second, the Fed starts its two-day meeting on Tuesday with a policy statement on Wednesday afternoon.... READ MORE
The S&P 500 peaked in early July and declined sharply into early August. There has been a rebound from this low, but all sectors are still down since July 8th - except one. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is the only sector SPDR showing a gain since July 8th.... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) continues to hold up well as it challenges its May-August highs with an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern. This also happens to be a bullish continuation pattern. Yes, a Head-and-Shoulders can mark a continuation. Also note that the pattern since late July looks like a cup-with-handle. Either way,... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains unchanged. Except for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and large techs, stocks have been moving sideways the last several weeks. QQQ is trading at its highest level since August 3rd, but the other major index ETFs remain below their August 31st highs. The same can be... READ MORE
As noted earlier, I view the decline from late July to early August as an impulse move. This means it is a strong move that is part of a bigger trend. In this case it is down. The choppy advance since the second week of August looks like a corrective... READ MORE
Target (TGT) surged to resistance in the 51.5-52 area for the third time in five weeks and formed a long black candlestick. A black (filled) candlestick means the close or current price is below the open. This means TGT opened at 51.74 on Thursday and moved lower after... READ MORE
The market is getting knee-deep in hollow rhetoric. Yesterday, Sarkozy and Merkel said they are "convinced that the future of Greece is in the euro zone". Gee, what a surprise. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that China will do everything in its power to preserve the Euro and... READ MORE
BRCM Shows Relative Strength. DE Forms Falling Wedge Correction. SVU Forms Bullish Pennant after Surge. Plus CVX, DDS, GFI This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Stocks put together a pretty good rally over the last five weeks, but the finance sector continues to show relative weakness. The chart below shows the S&P Sector PerfChart with the percentage gain for the nine sectors and the S&P 500. All nine sectors are keeping... READ MORE
Stocks managed a half-hearted bounce on Tuesday for the second up day in a row. This is not bad considering the news backdrop (European debt and banks). Technical analysts are not so much interested in the news, but rather the market's reaction to the news. An advance on... READ MORE
Maxim is leading a resurgent semiconductor group with a big surge over the last six days. The stock broke above its August high and exceeded the May trendline. Volume also picked up on the breakout. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
After meandering in negative territory most of the day, stocks surged in the final hour to close with small gains. Rumors were swirling that China was going to buy Greece. That's a joke. Expect more market moving rumors as this crisis unfolds. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and... READ MORE
ADBE Consolidates after Gap Up. DELL Forms Piercing Line at Support. JWN Hits Resistance at Key Retracement. Plus AES, ARUN, LTD, LULU, PG This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
Semiconductor stocks showed some relative strength on Monday. Altera (ALTR) participated with a big bullish engulfing on high volume. This is the second high-volume advance in the last five trading days. Look for follow through above resistance at 38 for confirmation. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
European banks are in the spot light on Monday. First, speculation is rising that Greece will finally default. Second, the debt agencies are poised to downgrade a number of European (mainly French) banks. Third, there is a clear rift in the European Central Bank (ECB) after the surprise resignation of... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) moved sharply lower the last two weeks with the Euro leading the way. FXE is trading below its summer lows and SPY may be about to follow suit. The indicator window shows the SPY:FXE Correlation Coefficient.... READ MORE
One indicator group was upgraded in the indicator summary. With a surge in the Aroon Oscillator (20), SPY momentum was upgraded from bearish to neutral. The rest remains unchanged, very unchanged. Stocks have been edging higher with choppy trading the last five weeks. This amounts to a consolidation after a... READ MORE
Stimulus-response. The stock market is like an ameba reacting to stimulus pokes from Washington, the Fed and the European Central Bank. Even though nothing is concrete, the market is certainly expecting some stimulus down the road. Sometimes the expectations are better than the real thing. Stocks remain in an uptrend... READ MORE
Like many other ETFs and stocks, the Steel ETF (SLX) has been range bound since the early August breakdown. The ETF plunged to 50 in early August and then moved into a trading range the last five weeks. Watch the range boundaries for the next directional clue. Click this image... READ MORE