I normally don't show an in-progress monthly chart because a monthly chart isn't final until the end of the month, but this week's market action was so severe, I thought that a 'big picture' view would be most helpful. The cyclical bull... READ MORE
Despite a great rally on Tuesday, a sharp decline on Thursday took it all back, and the market finished the week barely changed. This was an options expiration week, so I think that probably had something to do with it. As of last week, I was expecting some chop in... READ MORE
"The road to trading glory is littered with the bodies of those who tried to pick bottoms." -- Carl Swenlin (once upon a bad day) To use an expression made popular by the late Kennedy Gammage, bottom picking is for "swingin' riverboat gamblers." To be... READ MORE
After a day like this, the first question I ask is where is support? That question is not fully answered on this daily chart, but there is something worth noting here. Volume for SPY was huge -- 248% of the 250-day average -- but SPY is a trading instrument and... READ MORE
The root cause of the Financial Crisis was real estate speculation combined with Wall Street's perennial, casual disregard for other people's money. After the real estate market crashed, the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) was put forth in order to see that real estate speculators were... READ MORE
This chart was added almost as an afterthought in last Friday's DP Weekly Wrap, but throughout the week I kept thinking that it should elevated to the lead chart this week. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks with point and... READ MORE
The market (represented by SPY) has nearly reached the top of a rising wedge formation, and the VIX has reached the top Bollinger Band on our reverse scale display. There is no guarantee, but there is a pretty good chance that a short-term top is very near. There is also... READ MORE
Last week I was concerned that the VIX had topped but had failed reach the top band on the chart -- a similar configuration occurred in January before the crash. This week the VIX moved close to the top of the channel, so I think we can consider that the... READ MORE
Last week we were looking at a possible bearish island reversal on one hand, and nascent parabolic advance on the other. This week's decline filled the island gap, making the island proposition moot. The decline also reached down to touch the parabolic arc, but so far that '... READ MORE
This week, as the market once again broke out of the cyclical bull market rising trend channel, it occurred to me that perhaps another parabolic advance was getting under way. On Wednesday I was a guest of Erin and Tom on MarketWatchers LIVE, and I gave a more detailed account... READ MORE
On Friday SPY made new, all-time intraday and closing highs, exceeding the records set on Tuesday. The daily PMO has been very flat and holding at around +1 since the end of July. This summarizes the steady price rise during that period and does not present a problem. There is,... READ MORE
On an options expiration week we normally expect low volatility, and that is what we got this week. Despite somewhat dramatic, but opposite, moves on Wednesday and Thursday, the SPY trading range for the week was a little over two percent, and the difference between the weekly closing high and... READ MORE
Last week I said I expected to see new, all-time highs for SPY, and on Monday that expectation was fulfilled in a marginal way. While I didn't say I expected that the market would close higher this week, it was implied, but the market's low volume... READ MORE
On Thursday, when Apple's (AAPL) market cap went over the $1 trillion mark, Dennis Gartman (The Gartman Letter) said something to the effect that this is the kind of thing we see at market tops, not in the middle of a long advance. I felt the same way.... READ MORE
What's a technical guy doing talking about fundamentals? Well, I believe that charts of fundamental data are as useful as price charts in helping us visualize fundamental context and trends. In the case of earnings, the following chart shows us where the S&P 500 would have... READ MORE
Last week I thought we had a good setup for a short-term market top and correction, but news of possible progress toward a resolution of trade issues with the EU spurred the market (SPY) higher to challenge all-time highs. Funny thing, though, there was no follow through on Thursday, and... READ MORE
I normally expect options expiration week to be dull, and with this week's range of less than one percent, I was not disappointed. I was also looking for a short-term pullback, but that did not materialize (probably because of options expiration); however, our array of indicators say that... READ MORE
On Friday the Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) for long bonds (TLT) generated a long-term BUY signal. How that happens is that the 50EMA crosses up through the 200EMA, an event more commonly known as the "Golden Cross," because big money is sure to follow (just kidding). When we... READ MORE
Wedges are a favorite of mine because they are so reliable. For example, there is a high probability that rising wedge formations will resolve downward, so it is usually best to wait for this resolution and the aftermath before going long. Two weeks ago SPY broke down from a rising... READ MORE
Monthly charts were finalized on Friday, so we can get an up-to-date assessment of the very long-term. On the SPY monthly chart below, note that the cyclical bull market up trend has taken price on a very wide departure from the secular bull market rising trend line. The monthly PMO... READ MORE
The market has been turned back from the horizontal resistance drawn across the March top, but it has managed to stay above the support drawn across the May tops. However, there is still the mechanism of the bearish rising wedge pattern, which is reinforced by an OBV negative divergence, and... READ MORE
The bearish rising wedge formation we had been watching resolved upward last week, though not by a decisive margin. This week price reached, then retreated from horizontal resistance, forming a top which created a new rising wedge formation. In spite of the modest pullback early Friday, price was virtually unchanged... READ MORE
Rising wedge formations normally resolve downward, but sometimes they don't. While I was expecting the normal bearish resolution of the current rising wedge, the market wasn't having it, and it pressed higher for a breakout on Wednesday. There has been no follow through yet, but price... READ MORE
Last week I wrote: ". . . the market seems to be set up for a pullback or correction. . . . Recent declines have been very short-lived, so I can't make a case for anything too serious." What we got on the first trading day of this week was a sharp... READ MORE
Last week I thought we had a good outlook based upon a bullish flag formation, but this week the market just added more sideways movement. We could still make a case for a flag being in place, but a good flag should slant down off the flagpole as a sign... READ MORE
Back in the day, options expiration days were characterized by high volatility and exceptionally high volume; however, in recent years the market stays relatively calm, and the high volume only appears at the end of each quarter. These expectations were not disappointed in today's trading. In fact, the... READ MORE
On Friday the SPY 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA, generating an Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal for the broad market (SPY). Does this mean that I will have to reconsider my assumption that we are in a bear market? Well, I can hardly avoid it, but I still... READ MORE
On Thursday the market recovered nicely from an early selloff, and today it had a strong finish. But in the market, volume equals love, and the short volume on Friday was barely a peck on the cheek. On my SPY chart I like to show, in addition to SPY volume,... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY when the 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA. For me this is a low-confidence signal because XLY has been moving sideways, with price chopping above and below those EMAs with enough range to cause the dreaded whipsaw. Also undermining my... READ MORE
The technology sector (XLK) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY on Thursday, but reversed from BUY to NEUTRAL on Friday. The problem is that recent sideways price movement has squeezed the 20EMA and 50EMA very close together, and price movement above or below the EMAs can cause whipsaw signals. To review,... READ MORE
Market action was a little choppy this week, but SPY managed to eke out a small gain; unfortunately, volume was weak and did not confirm the rally. The PMO bottomed and crossed up through the signal line, giving a PMO BUY signal. But the PMO is running kind of flat,... READ MORE
On the SPY chart last week I thought I saw a reverse flag formation, although it was not as tightly defined as I would like. This week the market thrashed around pretty badly, and although the flag didn't become more visible, there is still a ragged cluster of... READ MORE
Last week the market broke down from a rising wedge pattern and dove into a scary decline. This week was choppy and wild, but price stayed within a somewhat ragged range that looks to me like a bearish reverse flag formation. Price remained above the 200EMA, and every day volume... READ MORE
This week the rising wedge we had identified resolved downward, as expected. Once that happened, we needed to provide a context that could help determine an initial downside target, so we focused on the double top confirmation line, drawn across the low between the tops. That line was violated on... READ MORE
First, the super high S&P 500 volume today was because of options expiration, so don't read anything else into it. Last Friday's encouraging breakout is looking like a short-term bull trap , as the market pulled back to the declining tops line support this week.... READ MORE
Friday was an exceptionally positive day, as prices advanced on good news regarding North Korea and jobs. Here are charts of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the 10 major sectors. The recurring theme we see is the double bottom. One exception is Utilities (XLU), which hasn't... READ MORE
At last Friday's close we were faced with SPY pushing at the top of a bullish flag formation (not annotated). On Monday there was a strong breakout that proved to be a fakeout. On Tuesday price topped and fell back to the top of the flag, and at... READ MORE
Nothing has happened this week to support my belief that we are in a bear market. If the market were in that much trouble, it seems to me that this week it should have headed lower. Instead, it has consolidated and formed a bullish flag formation. If the flag fulfills... READ MORE
Last Friday the market executed a bullish intraday reversal, and this week it rallied five days straight; however, there were some problems. S&P 500 volume contracted into the rally, and Friday's candlestick was a bearish shooting star. I don't really use candlesticks much, but... READ MORE
Last week I asserted that the character of the market had changed from super bullish to normal bullish, by which I meant that we should start to see more normal bull market corrections. On Monday I quickly revised that opinion and told Erin that I thought we may have entered... READ MORE