On this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin give you the scoop on where the SPY might be headed based on exclusive DecisionPoint indicators. Carl also reviews Gold Miners and Bitcoin, as well as Gold, Dollar, Crude and Bonds. Erin queues up the sector CandleGlance to search for strength and... READ MORE
Lately I have been seeing many TV pundits predicting a market melt-up, so let's take a look at participation and see if there is a set-up compatible with that notion. Surely, the rally from the early-October lows is a good start on a melt-up, but the recent new... READ MORE
On this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl opens the show with his take on the current market rally and reviews all of the "under the hood" indicators on the SPY. Carl and Erin comment on the health of all of the sectors. Erin takes a deep dive into the... READ MORE
(This is an excerpt from Thursday's (10/14) DecisionPoint Alert) We want to watch the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate, because, for the most part, people buy homes based upon the maximum monthly payment they can afford. As rates rise, a fixed monthly payment will carry a smaller... READ MORE
The following chart shows us the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl covers the major markets with a peek at mid- and small-cap ETFs. Indicators are positive, so certainly a bullish bias. There were two new IT Trend Model signal changes on XLE and XLU. Additionally, Carl and Erin review the Financial sector "under the... READ MORE
Climax analysis is something unique to DecisionPoint and we've found that "climax days" are highly accurate in determining market bottoms and tops in the very short term. A climax is a one-day event when market action generates very high readings in (primarily) breadth and volume indicators.... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Erin and Carl concentrate on what could be a Downside Exhaustion Climax. Carl covers off the broad markets and indicators with special attention to a possible exhaustion. Will it form a solid market bottom? The FAANG+ stocks (top 10 cap-weighted SPX stocks) were already showing... READ MORE
When the 20-EMA crosses up through the 50-EMA, we consider it to be an intermediate-term BUY signal (aka Silver Cross, as opposed to the Golden Cross, to be discussed later). A few years ago, we developed the Silver Cross Index (SCI), which shows the percentage of stocks in a given... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin turn the agenda upside down! Erin begins the show talking about three industry groups that have been showing new strength and a few stocks to review within those industry groups. Her "Diamond of the Week" takes advantage of momentum shifts... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl returns to the show and brings an interesting concept to share. Carl examines DP indicators and how they are confirming a stealth correction, as suggested by David Keller. To prove his point, he reviews stocks within the Dow 30 that did not have their... READ MORE
The other day, I was looking at the S&P 500 version of the Advance-Decline (A-D) Line, which tracks the cumulative daily advances minus declines for the SPX components. We can see that it has been confirming the market's advance for months, with a steady stream of... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl gives us his analysis of today's sell-off and discussed today's Downside Exhaustion Climax, showing us what to expect from this important signal and how to identify market climaxes. Erin takes a look "under the hood" at sectors that... READ MORE
In spite of the market making new, all-time highs this week, participation continued to deteriorate. Our focus is usually on the S&P 500 Large-Cap Index, so we'll begin with that, but mid- and small-cap stocks are really looking bad as well. The Silver Cross Index for... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl covers the SPY and its associated indicators, paying particular attention to participation within the broad markets, as well as some observations on Disney (DIS) and Communications Services (XLC). He also takes a look at the Big Four (Dollar, Gold, Crude & Bonds) and, of... READ MORE
The normal P/E range for the S&P 500 is 10 (undervalued) to 20 (overvalued), but the P/E spike in 2009 nearly pushed that range into oblivion. The current P/E of 33.85 is the third highest in history, but it is the highest ever reached... READ MORE
(This is an excerpt from today's DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap) When the 20-EMA crosses up through the 50-EMA, we consider that to be an intermediate-term BUY signal (a "silver cross") and track the percentage of stocks with BUY signals in a given market index with the Silver... READ MORE
On the Bitcoin chart, an important support line at about 30,000 provides the base for a large rounded top. A rounded top is considered to be bearish, with the expectation that, if the support fails, much lower prices are likely. As to how much lower, let's look... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl discusses last Friday's "selling exhaustion" and today's new "upside initiation climax." Carl also reviews the DecisionPoint indicators and gives you his outlook on Gold, Gold Miners, the Dollar, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Bonds and the 10-Year Treasury... READ MORE
Most people are familiar with the Golden Cross, which is when the 50EMA of a price index crosses up through the 200EMA. The Golden Cross has positive long-term implications, but to address the intermediate-term I chose the 20EMA and 50EMA and thought it appropriate to call an upside crossover a... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl gives us the market review and points out numerous negative divergences that are finding their way back onto the indicator charts. He and Erin discuss how to use "cardinal highs" and "cardinal lows" to easily see negative and positive divergences.... READ MORE
This is a copy of the "subscriber-only" DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap. It is posted each Friday for our subscribers and wraps up the week by analyzing daily and weekly charts. For more information on subscribing, click here. Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) signals are determined by weekly PMO crossovers.... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, the DecisionPoint indicators have Carl and Erin in a short-term bullish position. Watch to see why! Erin reviews the Technology sector and focuses in on Semiconductors and Software, two areas that are profiting from the current bullish bias in market. She offers up THREE Diamonds... READ MORE
This is an excerpt from today's subscriber-only "DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap": It has long been our belief that gold should be doing a lot better, considering the reckless spending and borrowing that is currently in progress. We have also believed that billions of dollars being diverted into... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 Silver Cross Index (SCI) shows the percentage of NDX stocks with the 20EMA above the 50EMA (an IT Trend Model BUY signal). The current reading is 56%, which is pretty weak, so we must wonder if it will go lower, or if it is about to improve.... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin cover a variety of topics. Carl opens the show with his "grab bag" of news items and follows up with his unique view of the markets in general. Both discuss Gold Miners (GDX) and Natural Gas (UNG). Erin finishes up... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl starts off by discussing outrageous market valuations and giving his thoughts on Gold and Gold Miners, as well as the Dollar, Treasury Yields, Crude Oil and the Bonds. Erin alerts viewers to new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals on three major indexes. There... READ MORE
A DecisionPoint IT Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal is generated when the 20EMA crosses up through the 50EMA, what we call a "Silver Cross." A few years ago we developed the Silver Cross Index, which tracks the percentage of stocks in a given index that have a silver... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl opens today's show by making a sobering comparison between Stock Fund money inflows of last 5 months versus the last 12 years. Get Carl's take on current market conditions and an in-depth look at the Silver Cross Index for the... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin thoroughly review market price action and indicators in all timeframes. Carl spends some time discussing his sector chart annotations spotlighting Communications (XLC) and Technology (XLK). Of particular concern are the Swenlin Trading Oscillators, short-term indicators that have been quite prophetic at market... READ MORE
You may ask why I used the qualification of "the most overvalued advancing market." On the chart below the current P/E Ratio is only exceeded twice, but both times it happened while the market was crashing -- the dotcom crash from the 2000 top, and the financial... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin review the surge to new all-time highs and reveal the indicators that are confirming this breakout. There are a few problem indicators, but in general the market is looking healthy. Hear their outlook for the SPY moving forward. Erin highlights Semiconductors and... READ MORE
Flying has been described by pilots as being hours of boredom punctuated by seconds of sheer terror. Attention to detail during the boring hours can possibly reduce the number of terrifying seconds one may be forced to endure. Market analysis requires the same attention to detail, scanning the same set... READ MORE
There are a lot of people worrying about a major market top, and there are just as many (mostly in the fundamental camp) confident that we're on the verge of another major up leg. We can see the logic of both positions, so how can we sort it... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin give us a complete market overview, including Dollar, Gold, Gold Miners, Crude Oil and Bonds. Carl specifically addresses problems in crypto right now, as well as a review of valuations as they continue to get more and more overbought. Erin tells you... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin dive into the SPY, particularly into the Technology Sector with Carl reviewing the FAANG+. Erin gives us a sector overview and discusses the new rotation into defensive areas of the market. She covers her favorite sectors and defensive industry groups to consider,... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin discuss not only the current market conditions and indicators, but share "Farrell's Ten Rules" for all investors to know and remember! Carl gives us the current read on Bitcoin and GME, while Erin looks at the Dollar, Gold,... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin present their unique analysis of the market. Carl concentrates on the SPY and "The Big Four" - Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Erin zeroes in on the best sectors going into the next week, then focuses in on the... READ MORE
In the venerable Click here to register in advance for the recurring free DecisionPoint Trading Room! Recordings are available! Happy Charting! - Carl Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Helpful DecisionPoint Links: DecisionPoint Alert Chart List DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List DecisionPoint... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin cover a wide range of subjects today, from current market conditions and the VIX to Bitcoin and Tesla (TSLA) to Natural Gas (UNG) and a Sector review. Carl discusses a group of funds that have weathered most storms and are poised to... READ MORE