Years ago it occurred to me that we should consider market "bias" when interpreting the condition (overbought/oversold) of market indicators. Here is how bias works: BIAS = BULLISH: Overbought conditions may not impede upward price progress. Conditions become oversold well above the bottom of the normal range. Bullish... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin review four new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signals on four of the major market indexes. Even the Nasdaq 100's new highs didn't prevent that PMO SELL signal. Erin discusses climactic indicators and how they can be leading... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, with the Nasdaq hitting 10000 on Wednesday, Carl and Erin take a deep dive into exclusive DP indicators for the Nasdaq to reveal some surprising negative divergences. Carl discussed the concept of "single-entry bookkeeping" and the false optimism it can create. Erin finishes... READ MORE
(Editor's Note: This is an expanded version of an item in last Friday's DP ALERT WEEKLY WRAP.) Last week we added some indicators to the Gold Miners Index (GDX) chart. First, Erin really likes the RSI, so she encouraged me to put that on the daily... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin begin by analyzing the day's market, after which Carl discusses the similarities between this rally and the rally into the bear market crash. They discuss confirmations and non-confirmations on indicators and perform a thorough review of the sectors, including Silver... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, following a discussion of current market conditions, Carl discusses the importance of choosing the right indicators for your charts and explains his rationale for including the indicators that DecisionPoint uses regularly. Carl also discusses the concept of bear markets and bear market rallies. Erin finishes... READ MORE
On a day when the Dow was up +529.95 points, I thought it was odd that it's two giant components, Apple (AAPL) and Micrsoft (MSFT), finished the day at a loss and at the bottom of the list sorted by percent change. Maybe this is just a... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Erin and Carl begin the show with a lively discussion of current market conditions after yet another breakout on Wednesday. Should investors expect even higher prices? Looking at exclusive DecisionPoint.com indicators, Carl and Erin have the answers! Carl examines SPX earnings and compares the... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, after looking at the latest DP signal scoreboards, Carl and Erin discuss the recent deep dive in prices on the 10-minute bar chart and the implications shorter-term. A look at the bigger picture shows the very negative configuration of the indicators. Many parallels can be... READ MORE
FOR THE BEARS . . . This chart tracks the price of the individual S&P 500 component stocks relative to their 20EMA, 50EMA, and 200EMA. As price approaches the level of a prior top, I look for the indicators to make a lower top, which is a negative divergence. Such divergences... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin's topic of the day was bankruptcy and the S&P 500. They discuss the difference between Chapter 11 and Chapter 7 bankruptcies and how that could affect the make up of the S&P 500. They discussed the... READ MORE
I was indoctrinated into using exponential moving averages (EMAs) out of necessity, back when I was generating data for the old DecisionPoint.com website. I was generating and maintaining data on Excel spreadsheets, and, if I wanted a 200-day simple moving average (SMA), I would need to keep 200 days... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin reviewed everything from the Case-Schiller Home Price Index to SPX Earnings Estimates and Gilead Sciences (GILD). Erin covered brand new scan results that uncovered a few names you might want to consider. Big-name companies reported earnings today, so they revealed the charts... READ MORE
The Technology Sector (XLK) 20EMA is on the verge of crossing up through the 50EMA, a Silver Cross, which will generate an IT Trend Model BUY signal. Since price is well above the 20EMA, the crossover will probably take place tomorrow, or the day after. One thing that could prevent... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl opens the show with a market overview looking particularly at short- and intermediate-term indicators. Carl and Erin comment on the bullish bias that seems to be prevalent in this rally off bear market lows. Erin looks at the Gold Miners' big breakout and... READ MORE
The S&P 500 component stocks are divided into eleven sectors, and five of them have rising wedges that have broken down. A rising wedge is a bearish formation, and, even in a bull market, it will resolve downward more often than not. In a bear market the odds... READ MORE
At DecisionPoint.com I maintain daily charts of the eleven S&P 500 sectors for our subscribers, and I can't help noticing two of the charts have bearish rising wedge formations, which developed after the market's March low. Rising wedges are bearish because they resolve... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin talk about some of the short-term technicals that are beginning to suggest weakness under the surface. Carl explains reverse divergences for On-Balance Volume (OBV) and price both with respect to Technology (XLK) and in general. Erin reveals what our dynamite Swenlin Trading... READ MORE
The S&P 500 final earnings for 2019 Q4 are out, and based upon GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principals) earnings, the S&P 500 is finally back into the normal value range, but is still overvalued. The following chart shows us the normal value range of the S&... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin look at the current market conditions and the bullish indicators that are appearing in the short- and intermediate-term timeframes. Carl points out that the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the S&P isn't a lagging indicator, whereas our Silver... READ MORE
Murphy's Law says that if something can go wrong, it will. Bear Market Rules say that even bullish chart formations are more likely to resolve bearishly, and while reviewing the sector charts this morning, I saw many examples of this. In particular, I saw a lot of broken... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin cover a variety of topics. To start, new momentum BUY signals have appeared, but enthusiasm should be tempered based on the bear market technicals. Looking at the DecisionPoint Earnings chart, Carl and Erin examine the concept of "bargains." Finally, they... READ MORE
The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) turned down on February 21, two days after the market's all-time high, and it moved steadily downward until Tuesday, when it finally turned up -- a short-term buy signal. The PMO has a normal range for market indexes of about +2.0 to... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl talks about the concept of "deflationary depression" and the implications. Carl and Erin discuss current technical levels for price and also look at the technical levels based on earnings at overvalue, fair value and undervalue. Carl reported on the "Big Four&... READ MORE
EDITOR'S NOTE: This is an update to my 3/13/2002 DP Weekly Wrap comments. When we look for downside potential for the S&P 500 Index, the simplest way is to look at obvious support levels based upon lines drawn across prior significant highs and lows.... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin discuss several topics including, of course, the bear market environment, along with global markets, broad markets and a few individual stocks you should see. Additionally, they analyze the implications of the Fed rate interest levels and the current and possible effects to... READ MORE
We track crude oil using the ETF USO because it makes oil accessible for trading without having to get involved in future contracts; however, you will notice that USO has a slight downward bias when compared to $WTIC, the continuous contract dataset for tracking the futures price. The reason for... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin discuss valuations following another brutal day in the markets, along with what they are projecting as possible lows in the markets. Seven sectors are in bear markets right now. Carl and Erin look at each sector and their indicators to demonstrate the... READ MORE
There is something different happening with interest rates. I don't know exactly what it means, but I definitely don't like how it looks. On the chart below, notice how in 2004 shorter-duration rates began to rise to where in 2006 long- and short-duration rates were compressed... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin discuss the current condition of the market with a summary of exclusive DecisionPoint indicators. The two open the show with a review of "bear market rules" and Carl explains his rationale for this being a bear market in the making.... READ MORE
I have often thought of using technical analysis as being somewhat like being the pilot of a paddle wheel steamer on the Mississippi River in the 1800s. He watched for eddies, roiling, churning and waves to warn of the possible dangers and help guide the boat safely to its destination.... READ MORE
Today Energy (XLE) was the best performing of the eleven SPDR sectors we follow. I have been watching the Energy Sector (XLE) for a few weeks, wondering if it was finally setting up for a rally. Price reached the bottom of a nine-month range, and the PMO bottomed, but that... READ MORE
An indicator that has become a favorite of mine is the Percentage of Stocks Above the 20EMA, because it is very straight forward and easily understood. Then a stock's price is above its 20EMA, it is a sign of strength, and, conversely, it is a sign of weakness... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin address a common question from many subscribers: "What will make you bullish?!". A viewer coins the expression "PermAware" for the Swenlin philosophy. In the vein, Carl gives his thoughts on divergences that have popped up, along with a... READ MORE
TSLA short-sellers no doubt feel that they have stuck their fingers into a light socket, or perhaps I should say they have been hot-wired to a charging station. Since last June's low, the value of TSLA stock has increased about four-and-a-half times. This week it advanced almost +50%... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl and Erin analyze the news regarding the coronavirus and its effects in China, including the side effect of depressed oil prices. Carl covers Oil, the Dollar and Bonds, while Erin zeroes in on the materials sector. Carl caps off the show with a discussion... READ MORE
Living in California, we pay a premium on just about everything, especially utilities in the summer. The monthly electric bill approaches $600, and water $300, but we do get relief with natural gas, which comes in at around $10. But don't say anything or our politicians will work... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Carl reviewed some of his notes from last Friday's DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap (available at DecisionPoint.com), while Erin presents an update on the latest short-term SELL signals triggered with today's market action. Carl and Erin also discuss cap-weighting pitfalls and positives... READ MORE
The S&P 500 preliminary earnings for 2019 Q3 are available, and based upon GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principals) earnings, the S&P 500 is beyond overvalued. The following chart shows us the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&... READ MORE
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Erin and Carl present their thoughts on the current market environment and the problems we should be aware of. Stocks above their 20/50/200-EMAs have negative divergences with the SPY price chart. Could ETF indexing be the next "bubble"? It seems the... READ MORE