Over the last six weeks, we've seen a dramatic reversal from a rising rate environment to a falling rate environment. While this rotation makes perfect sense from a technical perspective, the fact that the ten-year yield has come down in the face of strong economic data this week... READ MORE
Relative strength is one of the most important parts of my technical toolkit. Basically, the idea is to lean into stocks that are working and lean away from stocks that are not working. If that sounds easy, simple and straightforward, that's because it is! This week, I noticed... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
I recently tweeted the three steps for the S&P to signal a rotation from bullish phase to bearish phase, especially on the tactical time frame. After taking some time to digest this week's distribution, I wanted to update that thesis with a four step "bull... READ MORE
I've spoken recently of the bearish divergences emerging from breadth indicators, including the anemic new 52-week highs list, as well as a breakdown in the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. As we recorded Friday's episode of The Final Bar, it appeared that... READ MORE
I've spoken recently of the bearish divergences emerging from breadth indicators,including the anemic new 52-week highs list, as well as a breakdown in the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. As we recorded Friday's episode of The Final Bar, it appeared that... READ MORE
Back in early December, we discussed the three signals we would need to see to turn bullish on gold and gold stocks. Although the picture for gold turned more positive that month, a failure at resistance and a return below the 200-day moving average suggest further weakness may be in... READ MORE
Back in early December, we discussed the three signals we would need to see to turn bullish on gold and gold stocks. Although the picture for gold turned more positive that month, a failure at resistance and a return below the 200-day moving average suggest further weakness may be in... READ MORE
The end of the year tends to provide the perfect opportunity to reflect, renew and refocus. Hopefully, you've taken advantage of the Reflections 2020 specials on StockCharts TV, including my session on the Ten Questions You Should Ask Yourself at Year End! I was asked recently by my... READ MORE
As investors review the performance of stocks in 2020, e-commerce names like AMZN and SHOP exemplify the transition from brick-and-mortar stores to an online shopping experience. In the new year, potential stimulus packages and a rollout of the coronavirus vaccine should allow consumers to go back to old habits of... READ MORE
As investors review the performance of stocks in 2020, e-commerce names like AMZN and SHOP exemplify the transition from brick-and-mortar stores to an online shopping experience. In the new year, potential stimulus packages and a rollout of the coronavirus vaccine should allow consumers to go back to old habits of... READ MORE
As much as people speak of gold's value as a safe haven, its performance in 2020 has done much to dispel that investment thesis. Recent months have seen gold and gold stocks underperforming the S&P 500. Is the pattern of new highs for stocks and new... READ MORE
As much as people speak of gold's value as a safe haven, its performance in 2020 has done much to dispel that investment thesis. Recent months have seen gold and gold stocks underperforming the S&P 500. Is the pattern of new highs for stocks and new... READ MORE
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton My macro process has three key steps: Price, Breadth and Sentiment. While most measures of price and breadth indicate the bull market is in decent shape, the third... READ MORE
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton My macro process has three key steps: Price, Breadth and Sentiment. While most measures of price and breadth indicate the bull market is in decent shape, the third... READ MORE
The S&P 500 wrapped a rather volatile week by settling in at the upper end of the 3200-3600 range. One key breadth indicator shows clear similarities to the bull run in early October, and also provides a prescription for bulls looking for validation of further upside. *** This article... READ MORE
The S&P 500 wrapped a rather volatile week by settling in at the upper end of the 3200-3600 range. One key breadth indicator shows clear similarities to the bull run in early October, and also provides a prescription for bulls looking for validation of further upside. Breadth equals... READ MORE
This past Monday, I asked three experts on the Presidential Cycle - Bruce Fraser, Jeff Hirsch, and Tom McClellan - to share their take on market trends around the election season. They delivered in a big way, and the result was a masterclass in how to learn from market history.... READ MORE
This past Monday, I asked three experts on the Presidential Cycle - Bruce Fraser, Jeff Hirsch, and Tom McClellan - to share their take on market trends around the election season. They delivered in a big way, and the result was a masterclass in how to learn from market history.... READ MORE
I would currently describe myself as a "cautious bull," in that I recognize that the market is trending higher, I'm prepared to follow that trend as long as it continues, and I'm always looking for some signs of potential weakness and/or exhaustion. Over... READ MORE
I would currently describe myself as a "cautious bull," in that I recognize that the market is trending higher, I'm prepared to follow that trend as long as it continues, and I'm always looking for some signs of potential weakness and/or exhaustion. Over... READ MORE
A consistent imperfect routine is way better than an inconsistent perfect routine. When I've worked with investors that are new to technical analysis, I often find that they spend too much time trying to perfect their analytical approach on a particular chart, and way too little time determining... READ MORE
A consistent imperfect routine is way better than an inconsistent perfect routine. When I've worked with investors that are new to technical analysis, I often find that they spend too much time trying to perfect their analytical approach on a particular chart, and way too little time determining... READ MORE
"Great chart, but it seems super short-term. When would you get out of this?" That was the reaction I received on social media when I posted this chart showing the relative strength of semiconductors to the S&P 500. In terms of my process, I focus my... READ MORE
"Great chart, but it seems super short-term. When would you get out of this?" That was the reaction I received on social media when I posted this chart showing the relative strength of semiconductors to the S&P 500. In terms of my process, I focus my... READ MORE
The last five months of market history are a blur for me. Back in mid-March, the S&P 500 was in free fall with no end in sight. Here we are in mid-August, and the S&P is retesting all-time highs. Trend-following is about defining the trend, recognizing... READ MORE
The last five months of market history are a blur for me. Back in mid-March, the S&P 500 was in free fall with no end in sight. Here we are in mid-August, and the S&P is retesting all-time highs. Trend-following is about defining the trend, recognizing... READ MORE
Last week on The Final Bar, one of our Mailbag questions related to Amazon.com (AMZN) and how far it has reached above its 200-day moving average. This phenomenon speaks to the long-term strength of AMZN's price movements, the short-term overreaching of the price since the March market... READ MORE
This week on The Final Bar, one of our Mailbag questions related to Amazon.com (AMZN) and how far it has reached above its 200-day moving average. This phenomenon speaks to the long-term strength of AMZN's price movements, the short-term overreaching of the price since the March market... READ MORE
I wrote this article for last Saturday's ChartWatchers newsletter, focusing on the overbought conditions rampant in mega cap technology and consumer names. Monday's selloff certainly changes the short-term look of most of these charts, potentially beginning the topping process I described below. The next move higher... READ MORE
I've received many questions recently on stocks experiencing overbought conditions, from stocks like Activision Blizzard (ATVI), which recently broke above RSI 70, to Amazon (AMZN), which has an RSI that has breached 80. What does it mean to be overbought? Is that a sell signal? What do I... READ MORE
The S&P 500 index has remained in consolidation mode, spending the shortened holiday week in a rally back to the upper end of the recent trading range. Last week on The Final Bar, I announced "The Mindful Six", a group of six stocks that I feel... READ MORE
The S&P 500 index has remained in consolidation mode, spending the shortened holiday week in a rally back to the upper end of the recent trading range. Last week on The Final Bar,I announced "The Mindful Six", a group of six stocks that I feel... READ MORE
When I'm prioritizing information to help me understand the broad market environment, I tend to consider this as the order of importance: 1. Price 2. Breadth 3. Sentiment I've found sentiment readings such as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys... READ MORE
When I'm prioritizing information to help me understand the broad market environment, I tend to consider this as the order of importance: 1. Price 2. Breadth 3. Sentiment I've found sentiment readings such as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys... READ MORE
I've often said that by looking at individual stocks, you can get a deeper level of understanding of what's moving the overall equity markets. While some investors insist that "a rising tide lifts all boats" and you're better off just following the... READ MORE
Every Friday on The Final Bar, I conduct a weekly chart routine called "Wrap the Week" where we review macro charts and how they've evolved over the previous seven days. This week was focused on the unrelenting uptrend in stocks, but a deeper analysis after the... READ MORE
Every Friday on The Final Bar,I conduct a weekly chart routine called "Wrap the Week" where we review macro charts and how they've evolved over the previous seven days. This week was focused on the unrelenting uptrend in stocks, but a deeper analysis after the... READ MORE
One of my favorite ratios to track offense vs. defense within the equity markets is the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) divided by the Consumer Staples sector (XLP). But a look under the hood shares narrow leadership and questionable upside. Below, we see the S&P 500 ETF along with... READ MORE