So far in 2022, we've seen elevated volatility, yet another test of the 50-day moving averagefor the S&P 500, and renewed strength incyclical sectors over growth. If you were looking for a nice break after the uncertainty of 2021, I'm sure you are quite... READ MORE
The week between Christmas and New Year's is a special week for me. I actually call it "Power Week", and it is basically a week-long process of taking a step back from the "flickering ticks" of day-to-day life to focus on the long-term. Part... READ MORE
Try to summarize 2021 in one word. "Rotational." "Uncertain." "Volatile." Perhaps all of the above? This year has been all about leadership rotation, with growth names, value stocks and even defensive sectors all spending some time as the strongest performers in a given month.... READ MORE
Something changed on November 5, 2021. The S&P 500 had successfully broken up through the previous resistance level around 4550; early November saw the benchmark continue higher to finally reach 2700 on November 5th. Until that first Friday in November, the S&P 500 appeared to be... READ MORE
The VIX spiked above 30 this week, making that the highest level since January 2021. But is a rapid rise in volatility necessarily bearish for stocks? In my conversation with Marc Chaikinearlier this week onThe Final Bar, we talked about the move higher in the VIX and how that relates... READ MORE
My Market Trend Modelremains positive on all three time frames, which means I focus on three main goals: identify breakout opportunities with upside potential, lean into positive trends that continue to work and, lastly, look for signs of weakness that may indicate thebull market phase is exhausted. On Friday'... READ MORE
One of the best parts of hosting The Final Bar on StockCharts TVis the opportunity to compare notes with some of the top technical analysts and traders in the markets.In my recent discussions, we've discussed new highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Dow... READ MORE
Investors often think of the FAANG stocks as one basket of names. Either the mega cap tech and communication trade is working, or it isn't. But, as a review of the charts will reveal, these stocks can actually be differentiated using their price and relative profiles. So which... READ MORE
The worst crime that an analyst can commit is remaining bearish in the face of a rising market. -Richard Russell The S&P 500 has now round tripped from its early September high around 4550 and the low around 4300 in early October. Will there be enough buying power... READ MORE
This has been a confusing market in so many ways. The S&P 500 moved higher for the first nine months of the year, but many stocks had a very different experience over that time frame. Leadership themes have rotated a number of times, with growth- and value-oriented sectors... READ MORE
Gold has captivated human beings for millennia, infatuated with its appearance and it scarcity. Gold has also attracted investors for its value in hedging inflation and providing a stable store of wealth during periods of uncertainty. While there are many narratives for gold related to transitory inflation, the Fed'... READ MORE
I recently gave a webcast on how to avoid one of the sneakiest and most prolific of the behavioral biases: confirmation bias. Here's how it works. Instead of gathering evidence and then making a decision, you reverse the two. You actually make your decision first and then you... READ MORE
"Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Carl Swenlin For me, technical analysis is not about trying to predict the future. So when I'm asked to give my S&P 500 target for year-end, I try not to giggle as I answer.... READ MORE
My medium-term Market Trend Modelturned bearish in May and has remained consistently bearish ever since. The market hasn't seemed to notice and has continued to make new all-time highs in every subsequent month. So how do we reconcile these two conflicting signals, with a model turned negative and... READ MORE
I recently recorded a "Choose Your Own Adventure" style approach to Bitcoin. I laid out four different scenarios for this crypto, from the uber-bullish move to 65,000 to the ultra-bearish scenario down to 24,000. If you're interested, you can see the original video here... READ MORE
Markets in healthy uptrends, with improving bullish characteristics, see price breakouts follow through to further upside. Stocks like AAPL and AMZN and PYPL and others break above previous resistance levels and continue to push onward and ever upward. Except that was not the upside follow through scenario that the markets... READ MORE
As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have pounded away at new all-time highs basically every month in 2021, investors are left to wonder when a correction may actually be coming. We were taught that markets don't just go straight up, but instead they move... READ MORE
As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have pounded away at new all-time highs basically every month in 2021, investors are left to wonder when a correction may actually be coming. We were taught that markets don't just go straight up, but instead they move... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is going higher. If you knew nothing else about the current market environment, you would consider that to be a bullish indication. As Paul Montgomery once said, "The most bullish thing the market can do is go up." But if you look underneath... READ MORE
I have four paper charts hanging in my office. I use these as the background for most of my videos, and you can usually see one in the background when we shoot The Final Barevery afternoon. I was recently asked why these four charts were worthy of display -- and... READ MORE
In terms of key developments this week, I would argue that the ten-year Treasury yield breaking below 1.5% was perhaps the most significant. On The Final Bar this week, we've talked about the $140 level on the long bond ETF ($TLT) and how this rotation higher in... READ MORE
In John Murphy's classic text Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, he explains that one of the three basic assumptions of technical analysis is that prices move in trends.For anyone that has looked at charts for any amount of time, this seems like an obvious truism. The... READ MORE
As I go through my normal routine of analyzing hundreds of charts every day, or when I'm preparing for my daily closing bell show, I often focus on the "line in the sand" for each chart. That is, what's the point at which you... READ MORE
When a market makes a quick move lower from an established peak, then quickly rebounds back to the upside, you will hear the dreaded phrase "dead cat bounce" emerge on trading floors. What is this pattern, and what can it tell us about next steps for the S&... READ MORE
Last month, we recognized a bearish divergence on the chart of the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX). Soon after, bond prices rallied, pushing interest rates down to an ascending 50-day moving average. Now that this pullback has completed, we're seeing signs of rising rates, which has ripple effects for... READ MORE
I look at hundreds of charts every single day. Every once in a while, I come upon a chart that I feel should be in future textbooks on technical analysis. One chart that seems to provide a perfect example of best practices in price analysis and investor behavior. This week&... READ MORE
It's been a heavy earnings week, with many stocks gapping higher or lower based on investors' reactions to their quarterly results. With two particular stocks, AT&T (T) and Netflix (NFLX), this week was less about their ability to grow earnings and more about their potential... READ MORE
Over the last six weeks, we've seen a dramatic reversal from a rising rate environment to a falling rate environment. While this rotation makes perfect sense from a technical perspective, the fact that the ten-year yield has come down in the face of strong economic data this week... READ MORE
Relative strength is one of the most important parts of my technical toolkit. Basically, the idea is to lean into stocks that are working and lean away from stocks that are not working. If that sounds easy, simple and straightforward, that's because it is! This week, I noticed... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
I recently tweeted the three steps for the S&P to signal a rotation from bullish phase to bearish phase, especially on the tactical time frame. After taking some time to digest this week's distribution, I wanted to update that thesis with a four step "bull... READ MORE
I've spoken recently of the bearish divergences emerging from breadth indicators, including the anemic new 52-week highs list, as well as a breakdown in the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. As we recorded Friday's episode of The Final Bar, it appeared that... READ MORE
I've spoken recently of the bearish divergences emerging from breadth indicators,including the anemic new 52-week highs list, as well as a breakdown in the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. As we recorded Friday's episode of The Final Bar, it appeared that... READ MORE
Back in early December, we discussed the three signals we would need to see to turn bullish on gold and gold stocks. Although the picture for gold turned more positive that month, a failure at resistance and a return below the 200-day moving average suggest further weakness may be in... READ MORE
Back in early December, we discussed the three signals we would need to see to turn bullish on gold and gold stocks. Although the picture for gold turned more positive that month, a failure at resistance and a return below the 200-day moving average suggest further weakness may be in... READ MORE
The end of the year tends to provide the perfect opportunity to reflect, renew and refocus. Hopefully, you've taken advantage of the Reflections 2020 specials on StockCharts TV, including my session on the Ten Questions You Should Ask Yourself at Year End! I was asked recently by my... READ MORE
As investors review the performance of stocks in 2020, e-commerce names like AMZN and SHOP exemplify the transition from brick-and-mortar stores to an online shopping experience. In the new year, potential stimulus packages and a rollout of the coronavirus vaccine should allow consumers to go back to old habits of... READ MORE
As investors review the performance of stocks in 2020, e-commerce names like AMZN and SHOP exemplify the transition from brick-and-mortar stores to an online shopping experience. In the new year, potential stimulus packages and a rollout of the coronavirus vaccine should allow consumers to go back to old habits of... READ MORE
As much as people speak of gold's value as a safe haven, its performance in 2020 has done much to dispel that investment thesis. Recent months have seen gold and gold stocks underperforming the S&P 500. Is the pattern of new highs for stocks and new... READ MORE