FED FOLLOWS THE SCRIPT... The Fed followed through on the most advertised rate hike in history. First, by raising the Fed funds rate a quarter point to 1.25%. Second, by continuing to state that it planned to follow a measured pace in raising rates. The bond and stock market... READ MORE
INFLATION REPORT PUSHES YIELDS HIGHER... The market got an early boost today from Iraq and falling oil prices. By the end of the day, however, concern about rising rates pushed the major stock averages into negative territory. A big jump in consumer spending combined with a higher-than-expected inflation number pushed... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL DROPS $1.50 TO TWO-MONTH LOW... News that the Iraq transition took place two days early and a sharp drop in crude oil prices is giving the market a boost on Monday. Chart 1 shows crude oil dropping to the lowest level since late April. Not surprisingly, energy... READ MORE
DOW ENDS WEEK LOWER... Friday's Dow selloff put it in negative territory for the week. That loss was softened by the fact that the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 had weekly gains. Most of the Dow selling came from the drug group. Three of the Dow&... READ MORE
GOLD CLIMBS OVER $400... This morning's weaker than expected May durable goods report pushed the dollar lower against the Euro and the yen. That pushed gold prices $6.60 higher for the first move over $400 since mid-April. Gold stocks are rallying 3.7% and are the day&... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER... The Nasdaq market had the biggest percentage gain today and led an impressive market advance. This marks the second day of price gains accompanied by rising volume. That's something that's been missing for awhile. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite moving up... READ MORE
GUEST COLUMNIST - CHIP ANDERSON... John is travelling today and so Chip Anderson, President of StockCharts.com, is filling in. John should resume his commentary on Wednesday. I thought it would be constructive to go back a review John's observations over the course of the past week and... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR MAY BE HELPING COMMODITIES... During the two years prior to 2004, a falling U.S. dollar pushed commodity prices to the highest level in more than a decade. During the first half of this year, a rebound in the dollar has coincided with a downside correction in commodities.... READ MORE
RECORD TRADE DEFICIT HURTS DOLLAR -- HELPS GOLD... Chart 1 (plotted through Thursday) shows the U.S. Dollar Index meeting resistance at its moving average lines and showing signs of rolling over to the downside. This morning's report that the U.S. account deficit for the first quarter... READ MORE
SOX HITS MONTHLY LOW... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index fell more than 3% today and pulled the technology sector down with it. Chart 1 shows the SOX hitting the lowest level in a month and also breaking a two-month up trendline. That opens up the possibility of a retest of its... READ MORE
ENERGY ETF NEARS OLD HIGH... Energy stocks are rising again. In a mixed market, energy shares are especially strong. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR moving up to challenge its April high. A close through that chart barrier would put the energy ETF at a new three-year high.... READ MORE
INFLATION REPORT SOOTHES BOND TRADERS... The much-awaited May CPI report showed an increase of 0.6%. Although that was the biggest number since January 2001, the core figure met consensus expectations of 0.2%. For the time being, that calmed bond traders who were afraid of a much higher inflation... READ MORE
MARKET BOUNCE ATTRACTS SOME VOLUME... A relatively benign inflation report and a sharp drop in bond yields pushed stock prices higher today. As a result, the three main indexes are still safely over their 50-day moving averages. The Nasdaq bounced off its 200-day line yesterday. Market breadth was good with... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES PULLING BACK ... Last Wednesday I showed Chart 1 to make the point that the S&P 500 SPDR was up against chart resistance near 115 (its April highs) and that the stochastic lines were in overbought territory over 80. That suggested that some short-term selling wouldn'... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM UPTREND LOOKS OVERBOUGHT... The market ended a shortened trading week with a Thursday bounce. The lack of trading activity continues to cast a pall over the recent price gains. In addition, daily stochastic lines remain in overbought territory over 80. A more positive picture is shown by the MACD... READ MORE
GREENSPAN EFFECT... In a Wednesday speech in London, Mr. Greenspan talked about the possibility of the Fed having to raise rates more aggressively than planned if inflation pressures continue to build. Thursday's trading seems to be a delayed reaction to those remarks. Bond yields started rising again which... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS EXCEED APRIL HIGH... The Dow Jones Transportation Average has broken through the previous peak formed during April, and is now on its way toward its January high. Its relative strength line has been rising since early March in another show of relative strength. Last week (June 2) I... READ MORE
S&P 500 REACHES RESISTANCE LINE... Friday turned out to be a pretty good day. A strong jobs report, a bounce in Intel and chip stocks, and another drop in oil prices set a positive tone from the opening bell. Unfortunately, the day turned out to much less impressive... READ MORE
OIL RISES -- THEN DROPS... It was a strange day to say the least. OPEC announced this morning the biggest production increase in seven years and oil prices rose. As a result, stocks opened lower. This afternoon, an increase in oil inventories pushed crude 75 cents lower to $39.21... READ MORE
OIL TRADES HIGHER... OPEC announced this morning an increase in oil production of 2 million barrels a day. Although that was the biggest jump in seven years, crude oil has gained 46 cents and is back over $40. That's not what the stock market was hoping for. As... READ MORE
DOW CLOSES OVER 50-DAY AVERAGE... For a change, today's leadership came from industrial stocks. As a result, the Dow Industrials managed a close over their 50-day moving average. That puts all the major stock averages over that key resistance line. A $2.40 drop in the price of... READ MORE
OIL SPIKE HELPS ENERGY -- HURTS AIRLINES... Crude oil prices jumped $2.50 today to close over $42 for the first time ever. As is usually the case when oil is rising, energy-related shares were the big winners. The Energy Select Sector SPDR gapped higher today -- although on lighter... READ MORE
DOLLAR RALLY MAY BE OVER ... The U.S. Dollar Index has been in an intermediate term recovery since February. It ran into trouble, however, around its 200-day moving average. The Dollar Index rose above that long-term resisance line briefly at the start of May and even reached a new 2004... READ MORE
S&P EXCEEDS 50 DAY LINE... In a continuation of the rally that started on Tuesday, the market is trading higher today. Earlier in the week, the Nasdaq 100 was the first of the major stock indexes to exceed its 50-day average. The benchmark S&P 500 is... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 LEADING MARKET HIGHER... A number of positive chart things have happened this week. Tuesday's market rally came on good volume and very good breadth. It also came at a good time with so many market indexes testing major support at their 200-day moving averages. There are... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL JUMPS $1.77... A planned increase in Saudi oil production didn't have the desired effect of pushing crude oil below $40. Instead, crude jumped $1.77 to close at $41.70 -- just pennies from a new all-time high. As a result, energy shares were especially... READ MORE
ENERGY ETF LOSING LEADERSHIP... A strange thing happened this week. Crude oil prices reached another all-time high. At the same time, energy shares dropped. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR trading under its 50-day average for the last four days of the week. The previous week's... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES CLOSE LOWER ON HIGHER VOLUME... What started out as an encouraging bounce turned into a bad technical day. After jumping this morning, all the major averages reversed to the downside on rising volume. That's a bad combination. Also bad is the fact that the Dow Diamonds... READ MORE
GLOBAL RALLY ATTEMPT... I've been writing a lot about U.S. stock indexes bouncing off their 200-day averages. Those that have slipped under that long-term support line are climbing back above it today. It's important to recognize that the recent downside correction -- and the current... READ MORE
RETAIL HOLDERS RISE ON VOLUME... A nice rebound in retail stocks gave a market a boost today. It came at a good time with major stock indexes like the S&P 500 bouncing off their 200-moving averages. At the same time, a $1.00 drop in crude oil and... READ MORE
NYSE AND S&P 500 BOUNCE OFF MOVING AVERAGE... Despite Monday's market selloff, several important stock indexes are still holding above their 200-day moving averages. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 once again bouncing off its 200-day line at 1080. Its daily stochastic lines are... READ MORE
CPI AND PPI NUMBERS SURPRISE ECONOMISTS... The most frequently seen words in the financial press are "economists were surprised". It seems they're always being surprised by something. This week it was the "surprising" jump in the CPI and PPI inflation numbers. The fact that... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES CLOSE HIGHER ... Selling throughout most of the day had major stock indexes in danger of breaking key support levels near their 200-day moving averages. A late-day rally, however, prevented that from happening. By day's end the Dow was back above the 10K level and its 200-day... READ MORE
DOW FALLS BACK UNDER 10K... A record trade deficit for the month of March is contributing to renewed selling in the stock market today. In morning trading, the Dow Industrials have fallen back under 10K and their 200-day moving average. In contrast to yesterday's bounce when technology showed... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADERS... Our midday Market Message talked about the Nasdaq showing new signs of upside leadership after pulling the rest of the market lower since January. For the first time in the new year, the technology-dominated Nasdaq market is holding up better than the rest of the market. That'... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 SHOWING BETTER RELATIVE STRENGTH ... The Nasdaq 100 peaked during January and has underperformed the S&P 500 since then. That relative weakness in the technology sector was an early warning that the market was running into trouble. The good news is that we're now seeing... READ MORE
DOW CLOSES JUST UNDER 10K -- 200 DAY LINES IN JEOPARDY... The day started ugly in Asia and Europe and stayed ugly throughout the day. The stock selloff that started on Friday hit the global markets over the weekend before coming back to haunt the U.S. market. Percentagewise, the... READ MORE
ADVANCE-DECLINE LINES PLUNGE EVEN FURTHER... At the end of last week, I showed the recent deterioration in the NYSE and the Nasdaq Advance-Decline lines. The Nasdaq AD line had already broken its 200-day moving average which reflected the greater deterioration in that technology-dominated market. At the end of this week,... READ MORE
YIELDS EXCEED 2003 PEAK ... Another very strong jobs report is having a predictable effect on interest rates. It's pushing them sharply higher. The weekly bars in Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield breaking through the peak reached last summer and putting them at the highest level in... READ MORE
HOME DEPOT AND WAL MART WEIGH ON DOW... Despite reporting solid numbers for the month of April, retailers got marked down today. It seems the prospect of higher interest rates is beginning to infect this group as well. After all, most retail items are bought on credit. Two of the... READ MORE