CRB INDEX ENTERS DOWNSIDE CORRECTION -- BUT IS NOW OVERSOLD... The last time we analyzed the CRB Commodity Index, we expressed caution as it approached formidable chart resistance along the 1996-1997 peaks -- and also looked over-extended at the time. We talked about it being vulnerable to a downturn. That&... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE LEADERS INCLUDE BIOTECHS -- LIKE GILEAD SCIENCES... Yesterday's messages talked about strength in healthcare stocks -- including biotechs. Several biotech stocks are having strong days today. Here's what they look like. Gilead is the top gainer. After recently breaking through its November highs, it'... READ MORE
INDEXES TRADING OVER THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES... The first three charts show health-related stock indexes. There's one thing all three have in common. They're all trading over their 200-day moving averages. Outside of technology, this the only other sector that can make that claim. HealthCare is just... READ MORE
AETNA MOVING UP... Earlier today we showed charts of the healthcare group. The following charts show some of the healthcare stocks that have led the move up in that group and which, in our opinion, have promising chart patterns. We're showing them in alphabetical order. Aetna has recently... READ MORE
DOW BACK UNDER 200-DAY AVERAGE... All of the positive intermarket trends of last Friday are being reversed today. The Dow has already lost 3% and has given back all of the Friday's gain and more. More importantly, today's price drop puts the Dow back under its... READ MORE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NYSE... Back on Wednesday, March 12 (the day before the recent rally started) we did an analysis of NYSE Composite Index with the headline: "Market Reaching Critical Juncture -- IT'S OVERSOLD BUT STILL NEGATIVE". Given the sharp moves since then -- first... READ MORE
COMMODITIES PLUNGE...DOLLAR RALLIES... Key commodities continued their plunge this week. May crude oil ended the week below $27 and appears headed for a test of last November's low at $25. Gold prices fell another $6.90 today to close at $326. That puts gold at its major... READ MORE
PHARMACEUTICALS ADVANCE... Drug stocks led the market higher in the face of an imminent breakout of war. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index since last October. The fact that the latest decline to 275 held at its September low -- which is well above the October low -- is... READ MORE
SOX TESTING 200-DAY LINE... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index is gaining 6% today and is leading the technology sector higher. The techs, in turn, are leading the rest of the market. Last week we showed the SOX exceeding its 50-day average and breaking its three-month down trendline. This morning, it'... READ MORE
FIRST TO CROSS 50-DAY AVERAGE... One of the first non-tech indexes to cross back over its 50-day moving average is the S&P 500 Largecap Growth Index. There are two important parts of that title -- large and growth. Big stocks have been doing better than smaller stocks. And... READ MORE
EQUITY ENVIRONMENT IMPROVING... The latest 2003 MurphyMorris Money Management Model Update can be viewed from the MurphyMorris.com home page by clicking in the yellow box on the top right of the page. One of the most important factors in our Model is the relative strength of the Nasdaq versus... READ MORE
INDEXES EXCEEDING MOVING AVERAGES... One of the easiest ways to see which group average are leading the market higher is to look for those that are breaking through moving average lines. The most impressive is the Nasdaq, which has exceeded both its 50- and 200-day lines. Two of the tech... READ MORE
NASDAQ TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGE -- GOOD RELATIVE STRENGTH... The market had a good week -- topped off by Thursday's impressive rebound. Yesterday we showed the Nasdaq 100 exceeding its February high and its 200-day average. The Nasdaq Composite Index is still testing those resistance barriers. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
JUMPS 1% AGAINST EURO -- GOLD DOWN... The U.S. dollar staged an impressive overnight bounce against the Euro and the yen. It jumped 1% against the Euro and hit a two-week high against the yen. This doesn't change the long-term downtrend in the dollar (which recently hit... READ MORE
EURO AND GOLD HAVE BEEN RISING TOGETHER... One of the key intermarket relationships we've talked about over the past year is the "inverse" relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar. The falling dollar over the past two years has been the main driving force... READ MORE
NYSE BOUNCES OFF OCTOBER LOW ON GOOD VOLUME... Last evening we showed the NYSE Composite Index testing critical chart support along its October lows. If a rebound were going to start, that would be the spot for it to happen. And today it did. The NYSE surged on good breadth... READ MORE
NYSE INDEX TESING BOTTOM OF POSSIBLE DESCENDING TRIANGLE... Of all the price indexes that track the New York Stock Exchange, the one we prefer at MurphyMorris Money Management is the NYSE Composite Index. That's mainly due to the fact that it includes all stocks traded on the big... READ MORE
FANNIE MAE LEADS FINANCIALS DOWN... Sharp losses in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pulled the financial sector sharply lower today. FNM was one of the NYSE most active stocks as well. The mortage-related stock tumbed 4 points on extremely heavy volume -- and is threatening its October low. The odds... READ MORE
LINKING TO TV INTERVIEWS... We've been asked about the possibility of allowing our website members to link directly to my TV interviews. We're happy to offer that additional service -- when it's possible to do so. Those of you who wish to view my... READ MORE
NIKKEI BREAKS SUPPORT... The Nikkei fell 225 points today (-2.7%) to break support that's existed since last October. That puts the Japanese stock market at the lowest level in twenty years. We've commented before on the close correlation between the Japanese market and U.S.... READ MORE
CRB/T-BOND RATIO HAS BEEN RISING... It's been awhile since we looked at the ratio between the CRB Index and Treasury bond prices. Part of the reason is simply due to the fact that they've been diverging somewhat from their normal historical pattern. Historically, bond and... READ MORE
DOW PROBING BOTTOM OF BIG TRADING RANGE -- AND LOOKING OVERSOLD... The Dow Industrials have reached the bottom of the eight-month trading range defined by the July/October lows. At the same time, daily oscillators show an "oversold" reading. The 9-day RSI line has just dipped under 30... READ MORE
TOO MUCH NEWS... I had been scheduled to do a CNBC TV interview this evening on the Business Center show. That interview has been cancelled. CNBC decided to cancel its scheduled guests to make room for more important news. I'M SCHEDULED TO BE ON NBR FRIDAY EVENING... No... READ MORE
ECU LOWERS INTEREST RATES -- EUROPEAN STOCKS FALL... The European central bank lowered short-term rates a quarter of a point today. In the past, that might have boosted stocks. Not anymore. European stock markets sold off after the cut. As has been the case in the states for the past... READ MORE
THE GOLD BUGS INDEX FAVORS UNHEDGED STOCKS... Most people look at the PHLX Gold & Silver (XAU) Index to plot the trend of gold stocks. However, there's another lesser-known index called the AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI). Each index includes eleven stocks. Seven of the same stocks are... READ MORE
AUTOS SELL OFF ON HEAVY VOLUME... It seems like anything related to autos got sold heavily today. General Motors was the biggest drag on the Dow. Chart 1 shows GM tumbling toward its October low on a big pickup in trading activity. That's not good. Chart 2 shows... READ MORE
DOWNSIDE REVERAL FROM $40... We recently plotted a long-term chart showing major overhead oil resistance near $40 -- which represented the 1990 peak. Last Thursday, nearby oil futures touched $39.99 before falling sharply. Since then, oil has been weakening. This morning, oil prices are down another 70 cents to... READ MORE
CURRENT MARKET POSTURE... The following is an update of our current market posture at MurphyMorris Money Management -- which is based on a technically-based Decision Model. When the investment climate is right, we invest in equity mutual funds that show superior relative strength. At the moment, the only funds that... READ MORE
TESTING 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index is up about 2% today and is the strongest part of the technology sector -- which is the day's strongest sector. The daily chart shows the SOX trying to climb above its (blue) 50-day moving average. A close above that... READ MORE
TECHS HAD A RELATIVELY GOOD MONTH... Chart 1 shows the NDX closing up for the month. The Nasdaq Composite did the same. They were the only two of the major stock indexes to gain during the past month. As we suggested earlier today, however, it's usually good for... READ MORE
BIG DROP IN NEW HOME SALES CAUSES SELLING IN HOMEBUILDERS... New home sales saw the biggest drop in nine years. Not surprisingly, that weak number caused some selling in homebuilders today. The selling also came on fairly heavy trading, which is always a cause for concern. Chartwise, homebuilders are also... READ MORE
HEWLETT BREAKING SUPPORT ON VOLUME... Hewlett Packard is suffering a technical breakdown today. Chart 1 shows the big computer maker falling under its February low (and its 200-day average) on heavy volume. [Notice also that it's recent low-volume bounce failed at its (blue) 50-day moving average]. Chart 1... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL SPIKES AGAIN -- NEARS $38... April crude oil prices spiked up another $1.64 to close at 37.70. That puts prices within striking distance of the peak formed during late 2000. A close above $38 would put crude at the highest level since 1990 when it rose... READ MORE
JAPAN SINKS 220 POINTS... Starting in Asia, global markets had a bad day -- even before our markets opened. The Nikkei 225 Index fell over 200 points and is threatening its old low. In Europe, markets lost 2-3% with the German DAX showing the biggest loss of 3.35%. That... READ MORE
DOW ENDS UP 51 POINTS... After falling earlier in the day, the Dow Industrials ended up 51 points for the day. As Chart 1 shows, the upside reversal took place on rising volume. That's a good sign -- if there's follow-through tomorrow. The Dow still needs... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE INDEX TURNS UP... With energy prices staying firm, oil service stocks have turned their trend upward. [The biggest development today was the jump in heating oil prices through their 1989-1990 peak at 1.10 -- and reaching the highest level since 1979]. Natural gas stocks are also strong... READ MORE
HEATING OIL AND NATURAL GAS SURGE... Heating oil prices surged to the highest level in twenty years today. Natural gas prices jumped more than 30%. As a result, energy shares were the top (and only) winners for the day. Oil service and natural gas stocks were the leadership in the... READ MORE
BIG TECHS CLIMBING OVER 50-DAY LNES... The most-actives list on the Nasdaq is a who's who of big technology stocks. A number of them are climbing back over their 50-day moving averages -- which is a sign of market leadership (and represents at least a short-term buy signal)... READ MORE
THERE'S RESISTANCE NEAR $38... Over the past couple of weeks, we talked about gold being overbought (and due for a correction) and the CRB Index nearing chart resistance at six-year highs. The same is true for crude oil. Chart 1 shows nearby crude oil futures ending last week... READ MORE
BUT ON LOW VOLUME... The stock market continued the oversold bounce that started late last week. Unfortunately, volume remains light. Rising volume is one of key ingredients of a serious market advance. So far, it's missing. That leans us toward the view that this is an oversold bounce... READ MORE