John Murphy

John Murphy


John is a renowned author in the investment field and former technical analyst for CNBC. Considered the father of intermarket technical analysis, his books include “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” and “Trading with Intermarket Analysis”. Learn More 

Archived News

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BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS TESTING ITS 2018 HIGH -- AN UPSIDE COMMODITY BREAKOUT WOULD SIGNAL HIGHER INFLATION -- RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE PUSHING BOND YIELDS HIGHER -- TEN YEAR TREAS...

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS TESTING ITS 2018 HIGH -- AN UPSIDE COMMODITY BREAKOUT WOULD SIGNAL HIGHER INFLATION -- RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE PUSHING BOND YIELDS HIGHER -- TEN YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE HEADING TO 3%

BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT... This week's surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That's because rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Rising commodity prices have a lot of intermarket implications. For one thing, rising...   READ MORE 

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CSX AND UNITED AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- AND BOOST THE INDUSTRIAL SPDR -- FREEPORT MCMORAN LEADS MATERIALS HIGHER -- SIX-YEAR HIGH IN ALUMINUM PUSHES ALCOA TO NEW RECORD -- ENERGY...

CSX AND UNITED AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- AND BOOST THE INDUSTRIAL SPDR -- FREEPORT MCMORAN LEADS MATERIALS HIGHER -- SIX-YEAR HIGH IN ALUMINUM PUSHES ALCOA TO NEW RECORD -- ENERGY AND METALS LEAD COMMODITIES SHARPLY HIGHER

TRANSPORTS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... Monday's message showed the Dow Transports rising above their 50-day average to turn their trend higher. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports on the verge of breaking through overhead resistance formed in late February and mid-March. While rails and truckers (and FedEx) were Monday&...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER ALONG WITH THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- TWITTER AND ALPHABET LEAD INTERNET STOCKS HIGHER -- INTEL AND MICROSOFT NEAR RECORD HIGHS -- THE DOW CLEARS 50-DAY LINE A...

NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER ALONG WITH THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR -- TWITTER AND ALPHABET LEAD INTERNET STOCKS HIGHER -- INTEL AND MICROSOFT NEAR RECORD HIGHS -- THE DOW CLEARS 50-DAY LINE AND DOWN TRENDLINE -- ITS P&F CHART SHOWS AN UPTREND

NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET HIGHER ... Stocks are having another good chart day. All major stock indexes are trading well above their 50-day averages. The Nasdaq market is in the lead. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gapping over its 50-day line today. The rising red line is a...   READ MORE 

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DOW TRANSPORTS CLEAR THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGE -- JB HUNT AND CH ROBINSON ARE LEADING -- KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, CSX, AND UNION PACIFIC ARE ALSO STRONG -- FEDEX CLEARS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- THE D...

DOW TRANSPORTS CLEAR THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGE -- JB HUNT AND CH ROBINSON ARE LEADING -- KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, CSX, AND UNION PACIFIC ARE ALSO STRONG -- FEDEX CLEARS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ARE TESTING THEIR 50-DAY LINE AGAIN

DOW TRANSPORTS EXCEED 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Stocks are opening the new week on a positive note. Transportation stocks are having an especially strong day. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Transports climbing 2% this morning. More importantly, the $TRAN is trading above its 50-day moving average (blue circle)...   READ MORE 

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BANKS SUFFER BIG SELLOFF AFTER REPORTING STRONG EARNINGS -- JP MORGAN CHASE SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL DAY -- FINANCIAL SPDR FAILS TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- STOCK INDEXES PULL BACK FROM 50-...

BANKS SUFFER BIG SELLOFF AFTER REPORTING STRONG EARNINGS -- JP MORGAN CHASE SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL DAY -- FINANCIAL SPDR FAILS TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- STOCK INDEXES PULL BACK FROM 50-DAY AVERAGES BUT ON LIGHTEST TRADING OF THE YEAR

JP MORGAN CHASE SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL ON FRIDAY... Friday had to be a very discouraging day for investors in bank stocks. After reporting first quarter earnings that were much higher than expected, bank stocks opened higher before plunging in heavy trading. Chart 1 shows JP Morgan Chase (JPM) suffering a...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS MAY BE TURNING BACK UP AGAIN -- THAT'S BOOSTING FINANCIALS AND HURTING UTILITIES -- JP MORGAN AND GOLDMAN SACHS CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES -- BOEING AND INTEL LEAD DOW HIGHER

BOND YIELDS MAY BE TURNING BACK UP AGAIN -- THAT'S BOOSTING FINANCIALS AND HURTING UTILITIES -- JP MORGAN AND GOLDMAN SACHS CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES -- BOEING AND INTEL LEAD DOW HIGHER

TEN YEAR BOND YIELD MAY BE TURNING BACK UP AGAIN... After hitting a four-year high during January, the 10-Year Treasury Yield saw a modest decline from mid-February until the end of March. Some of that decline in yields was probably based on safe haven buying of Treasuries during the first...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITY PRICES ARE RISING -- CRUDE OIL BREAKOUT IS GIVING A BIG BOOST TO ENERGY SHARES -- SMALL CAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- S&P 500 STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR RESISTANCE -- STRE...

COMMODITY PRICES ARE RISING -- CRUDE OIL BREAKOUT IS GIVING A BIG BOOST TO ENERGY SHARES -- SMALL CAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- S&P 500 STILL NEEDS TO CLEAR RESISTANCE -- STRENGTH IN HIGH YIELD BONDS IS ANOTHER POSITIVE SIGN

CRUDE OIL LEADS BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX HIGHER... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Bloomberg Commodity Index rising to the highest level in two months. The index recently bounced off its 200-day moving average (red line) and a rising trendline drawn under its June/December lows. The commodity rally...   READ MORE 

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Third Tariff Threat Sinks Market

Third Tariff Threat Sinks Market

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Saturday, April 7th at 7:55am ET Just when it looked like the stock market was about to recover from the first two rounds of tariff threats, stocks were hit with a third...   READ MORE 

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MARKETS GET TRUMPED FOR THE THIRD TIME -- WEEK'S STOCK GAINS ARE WIPED OUT ON FRIDAY AS TARIFF THREATS INTENSIFY -- ANOTHER TEST OF UNDERLYING CHART SUPPORT NOW APPEARS LIKELY

MARKETS GET TRUMPED FOR THE THIRD TIME -- WEEK'S STOCK GAINS ARE WIPED OUT ON FRIDAY AS TARIFF THREATS INTENSIFY -- ANOTHER TEST OF UNDERLYING CHART SUPPORT NOW APPEARS LIKELY

THIRD TARIFF THREAT SINKS MARKET... Just when it looked like the stock market was about to recover from the first two rounds of tariff threats, stocks were hit with a third and bigger $100 billion tariff threat after the close on Thursday. As a result, stock market indexes fell more...   READ MORE 

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REBOUND IN BOEING PUTS THE DOW IN THE LEAD FOR THE DAY -- THE DOW CLEARS INITIAL RESISTANCE BARRIER -- ENERGY AND MATERIAL SPDRS REGAIN 200-DAY AVERAGES -- FREEPORT MCMORAN AND MARATHON OI...

REBOUND IN BOEING PUTS THE DOW IN THE LEAD FOR THE DAY -- THE DOW CLEARS INITIAL RESISTANCE BARRIER -- ENERGY AND MATERIAL SPDRS REGAIN 200-DAY AVERAGES -- FREEPORT MCMORAN AND MARATHON OIL HAVE A STRONG DAY -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

BOEING BOUNCES OFF 100-DAY AVERAGE ... The Dow Industrials led today's follow-through rally in stocks. Today's bounce in Boeing is a big reason why. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the aerospace giant gaining 2.74% today after bouncing off its 100-day moving average (green line)...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS SURGE 3% AFTER A WEAK OPEN -- AND 200-DAY AVERAGES HOLD ONCE AGAIN -- SMALL CAPS ARE HOLDING UP BETTER THAN LARGE CAPS -- HOMEBUILDERS AND RETAILERS MADE CYCLICALS THE DAY'S STRONGE...

STOCKS SURGE 3% AFTER A WEAK OPEN -- AND 200-DAY AVERAGES HOLD ONCE AGAIN -- SMALL CAPS ARE HOLDING UP BETTER THAN LARGE CAPS -- HOMEBUILDERS AND RETAILERS MADE CYCLICALS THE DAY'S STRONGEST SECTOR

STOCKS SCORE BIG UPSIDE REVERSAL FROM 200-DAY AVERAGES ... The stock market staged an impressive upside turnaround today. After opening 500 points lower this morning, the Dow Industrials ended the day 230 points (0.96%) higher. That's a gain of more than 700 points from its opening price. Stock...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS START THE SECOND QUARTER UNDER HEAVY SELLING -- 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEING THREATENED -- ALL MARKET SECTORS END IN THE RED -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ARE...

STOCKS START THE SECOND QUARTER UNDER HEAVY SELLING -- 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEING THREATENED -- ALL MARKET SECTORS END IN THE RED -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ARE AMONG BIGGEST LOSERS

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES RETEST UNDERLYING SUPPORT LEVELS ... Stocks started the second quarter under heavy selling pressure. Some major stock indexes saw losses in excess of 2%. Today's selling is resulting in retests of important underlying support levels. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials touching its 200-day average but...   READ MORE 

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THE FIRST QUARTER WASN'T THAT BAD FOR STOCKS -- THE VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF LOST LESS THAN 1% -- SOCIAL MEDIA ETF IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT -- SO IS AN ETF OF BANK STOCKS -- GL...

THE FIRST QUARTER WASN'T THAT BAD FOR STOCKS -- THE VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF LOST LESS THAN 1% -- SOCIAL MEDIA ETF IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT -- SO IS AN ETF OF BANK STOCKS -- GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF BOUNCES OFF ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF LOST LESS THAN 1%... Despite all the volatility during the first quarter, the first three months of 2018 weren't really that bad. The Dow Industrials were the biggest losers with a quarterly drop of -2.5%. The broader S&P 500 Index...   READ MORE 

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MAJOR US STOCK INDEXES ARE TRYING TO STABILIZE NEAR 200-DAY AVERAGES AND FEBRUARY LOW -- TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ARE WEIGHING ON THE MARKET -- ESPECIALLY FAANG STOCKS -- BUT FACEBOOK LOOKS OVERS...

MAJOR US STOCK INDEXES ARE TRYING TO STABILIZE NEAR 200-DAY AVERAGES AND FEBRUARY LOW -- TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ARE WEIGHING ON THE MARKET -- ESPECIALLY FAANG STOCKS -- BUT FACEBOOK LOOKS OVERSOLD WHILE ALPHABET IS TESTING CHART SUPPORT

DOW AND THE S&P 500 ARE RETESTING 200-DAY LINES ... The Dow and the S&P 500 are still in the process of retesting underlying support levels near their 200-day averages and February lows. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials retesting its February intra-day low at 23,400...   READ MORE 

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THE ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX IS HEADED FOR A TEST OF FEBRUARY SUPPORT -- SO IS THE S&P 500 WHICH IS ALSO TESTING A TRENDLINE EXTENDING BACK TO THE START OF 2016 -- FINANCIALS AND TECHNOLOGY...

THE ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX IS HEADED FOR A TEST OF FEBRUARY SUPPORT -- SO IS THE S&P 500 WHICH IS ALSO TESTING A TRENDLINE EXTENDING BACK TO THE START OF 2016 -- FINANCIALS AND TECHNOLOGY ARE THE BIGGEST SECTOR LOSERS

WORLD STOCK INDEX HEADED FOR A TEST OF ITS FEBRUARY LOW AND ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE... Stocks around the world had a terrible week. Foreign stocks fell along with the U.S. That's not unusual since global stocks become tightly correlated on the way down. Selling in Chinese stocks...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK TRENDLINE SUPPORT -- NASDAQ 100 FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA STOCKS CONTINUE TO LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR LOWER -- TENCENT HOLDINGS REFLECTS HEAVY...

DOW AND S&P 500 BREAK TRENDLINE SUPPORT -- NASDAQ 100 FALLS BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA STOCKS CONTINUE TO LEAD TECHNOLOGY SECTOR LOWER -- TENCENT HOLDINGS REFLECTS HEAVY SELLING IN CHINESE STOCKS

U.S. STOCK INDEXES BREAK SUPPORT LINES ... Major U.S. stock indexes are under heavy selling today and are breaking some important support lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below a trendline extending back to early February. That signals a possible drop back to its February intra-day low...   READ MORE 

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CRUDE OIL IS NEARING ANOTHER THREE-YEAR HIGH AND BOOSTING ENERGY SHARES -- ENERGY SPDR IS BOUNCING OFF MAJOR TRENDLINE SUPPORT AND 200-DAY AVERAGE -- OIL SERVICE ETF IS EVEN STRONGER -- EN...

CRUDE OIL IS NEARING ANOTHER THREE-YEAR HIGH AND BOOSTING ENERGY SHARES -- ENERGY SPDR IS BOUNCING OFF MAJOR TRENDLINE SUPPORT AND 200-DAY AVERAGE -- OIL SERVICE ETF IS EVEN STRONGER -- ENERGY LEADERS ARE TRANSOCEAN, NATIONAL OILWELL, AND HESS

PRICE OF OIL NEARS THREE-YEAR HIGH... WTIC Light Crude is trading more than 2% higher today near $65. The weekly bars in Chart 1 (plotted through yesterday) show Light Crude Oil also nearing another three-year high. Brent crude is in a similar situation. Chart 2 shows the United States Oil...   READ MORE 

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NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE LEADS TO TECH SELLING -- FACEBOOK FALLS TO SIX-MONTH LOW AND LEADS INTERNET GROUP LOWER -- TECH SECTOR MAY BE VULNERABLE TO MORE PROFIT-TAKING -- DOW INDUSTRIALS AND S&...

NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE LEADS TO TECH SELLING -- FACEBOOK FALLS TO SIX-MONTH LOW AND LEADS INTERNET GROUP LOWER -- TECH SECTOR MAY BE VULNERABLE TO MORE PROFIT-TAKING -- DOW INDUSTRIALS AND S&P 500 ARE TESTING POTENTIAL TRENDLINE SUPPORT

OVER-EXTENDED TECHNOLOGY SPDR TURNS LOWER... Last Wednesday's message showed the technology sector looking over-extended and vulnerable to profit-taking. So this week's tech selling wasn't too much of a surprise. The daily bars in Chart 1 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) falling yesterday in heavy...   READ MORE 

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Dow Industrials May Be Forming a Triangle of Their Own

Dow Industrials May Be Forming a Triangle of Their Own

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, March 15th at 12:34pm ET The two converging trendlines in the chart below show the Dow Industrials forming a potential "symmetrical triangle" (which has one trendline falling and the...   READ MORE 

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THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- BUT MAY BE FORMING ASCENDING TRIANGLE -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS MAY BE FORMING BULLISH TRIANGLE OF ITS OWN -- THAT WOULD FIT INTO E...

THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- BUT MAY BE FORMING ASCENDING TRIANGLE -- THE DOW INDUSTRIALS MAY BE FORMING BULLISH TRIANGLE OF ITS OWN -- THAT WOULD FIT INTO ELLIOTT WAVE FOUR CONSOLIDATION PATTERN

DOW TRANSPORT UPTREND IS ALSO STALLED AT 50-DAY AVERAGE... Yesterday's message showed the Dow Industrials falling below their 50-day average. Today's message shows the Dow Transports doing the same. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Dow Jones Transportation Average backing off from a test...   READ MORE 

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STOCK UPTREND WEAKENS -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR RUNS INTO RESISTANCE AT 50-DAY LINE -- BOEING LEADS AEROSPACE LOWER -- ALUMINUM AND CHEMICALS PULL MATERIALS SPDR LOWER -- DOW INDUSTRIALS FALL BEL...

STOCK UPTREND WEAKENS -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR RUNS INTO RESISTANCE AT 50-DAY LINE -- BOEING LEADS AEROSPACE LOWER -- ALUMINUM AND CHEMICALS PULL MATERIALS SPDR LOWER -- DOW INDUSTRIALS FALL BELOW 50-DAY LINE AS S&P 500 STALLS AT FEBRUARY HIGH

BOEING LEADS INDUSTRIAL SPDR BELOW ITS 50-DAY LINE... The stock rally is starting to lose some upside momentum. That's partially because some market sectors are running into resistance at their 50-day moving average. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) slipping back below...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RALLY ON STRONG JOBS REPORT WITH SMALLER WAGE GAIN -- S&P 500 CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD -- SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES ARE LEADING THE QQQ INTO RECORD TERRITORY...

STOCKS RALLY ON STRONG JOBS REPORT WITH SMALLER WAGE GAIN -- S&P 500 CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD -- SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES ARE LEADING THE QQQ INTO RECORD TERRITORY -- LAM RESEARCH AND INTEL HIT NEW RECORDS

STRONG EMPLOYMENT REPORT BOOSTS STOCKS... A blockbuster employment report this morning is giving a big boost to stocks which were already in rally mode going into the report on easing tariff concerns from yesterday afternoon. U.S. employers added 313,000 jobs in February which was way above estimates and...   READ MORE 

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LATE STOCK BUYING SHOWS POSITIVE REACTION TO TARIFF SPEECH -- S&P 500 CLOSES AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- FIVE-MINUTE PRICE BARS SHOW STRONG BUYING IN FINAL MINUTES -- THE VIX NEARS TWO-WEEK LOW -...

LATE STOCK BUYING SHOWS POSITIVE REACTION TO TARIFF SPEECH -- S&P 500 CLOSES AT 50-DAY AVERAGE -- FIVE-MINUTE PRICE BARS SHOW STRONG BUYING IN FINAL MINUTES -- THE VIX NEARS TWO-WEEK LOW -- THE NASDAQ MARKET IS HEADED FOR ANOTHER TEST OF 2018 HIGHS

S&P 500 CLOSES JUST SHY OF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE... Late buying today pushed stocks higher and on rising volume. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 rising 12 points today (0.46%) to end at 2738 which is one point shy of its...   READ MORE 

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SMALLER STOCKS ARE LEADING THE MARKET HIGHER -- S&P SMALL AND MIDCAP INDEXES NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- THE S&P 500 SHOULD FOLLOW THEM HIGHER -- NASDAQ STRENGTH IS ALSO A POSITIVE SIGN

SMALLER STOCKS ARE LEADING THE MARKET HIGHER -- S&P SMALL AND MIDCAP INDEXES NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- THE S&P 500 SHOULD FOLLOW THEM HIGHER -- NASDAQ STRENGTH IS ALSO A POSITIVE SIGN

SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES... Last Wednesday's message pointed out that smaller stocks were leading large caps lower. Small and midcap indexes had fallen below their 50-day average which increased odds that the S&P 500 would do the same, which it did. Today,...   READ MORE 

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GRAIN PRICES ARE FINALLY MOVING HIGHER -- A WEAKER DOLLAR IS INCREASING DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- COTTON ALSO APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING -- RISING PRICES COULD BOOST FOOD AND CLOTHIN...

GRAIN PRICES ARE FINALLY MOVING HIGHER -- A WEAKER DOLLAR IS INCREASING DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- COTTON ALSO APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING -- RISING PRICES COULD BOOST FOOD AND CLOTHING COSTS -- TODAY'S DOLLAR DROP IS BOOSTING GOLD

GRAIN PRICES ARE LEADING COMMODITY RALLY THIS YEAR ... My market message from January 6 expressed the view that commodity prices appeared to be bottoming, which could increase inflation pressures later this year. It also suggested that the chart of the CRB Index might actually be understating the inflation threat. That...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 BOUNCE IMPRESSIVELY OFF 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- NASDAQ RISES FURTHER ABOVE 50-DAY LINE -- ALL SECTORS ARE IN THE GREEN -- WHILE THE VIX INDEX FALLS BACK BELOW 20 -- BLOO...

DOW AND S&P 500 BOUNCE IMPRESSIVELY OFF 100-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- NASDAQ RISES FURTHER ABOVE 50-DAY LINE -- ALL SECTORS ARE IN THE GREEN -- WHILE THE VIX INDEX FALLS BACK BELOW 20 -- BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX REGAINS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF 100-DAY AVERAGE... Last Friday's midday message showed the S&P 500 testing chart support near 2640 and in a short-term oversold condition (black line). After rallying off that support level on Friday afternoon, stocks built on those gains today. The daily...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Remain On The Defensive

Stocks Remain On The Defensive

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, March 2nd at 12:26pm ET Wednesday's message showed the PowerShares QQQ (representing the Nasdaq 100 Index) pulling back from overhead resistance at its late January peak. That suggested profit-taking...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REMAIN ON THE DEFENSIVE -- QQQ IS TESTING 50-DAY AVERAGE -- WHILE S&P 500 TESTS SHORT-TERM SUPPORT NEAR 2640 -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD -- JAPANESE YEN SURGES TO 15-MONTH HIGH

STOCKS REMAIN ON THE DEFENSIVE -- QQQ IS TESTING 50-DAY AVERAGE -- WHILE S&P 500 TESTS SHORT-TERM SUPPORT NEAR 2640 -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD -- JAPANESE YEN SURGES TO 15-MONTH HIGH

POWERSHARES QQQ IS TESTING 50-DAY AVERAGE ... Wednesday's message showed the PowerShares QQQ (representing the Nasdaq 100 Index) pulling back from overhead resistance at its late January peak. That suggested profit-taking in the technology-dominated QQQ and the rest of the market. It also suggested a retest of its 50-day...   READ MORE 

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SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS LEAD LARGE CAPS LOWER -- THE S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF CLOSING BELOW ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHES ENERGY SECTOR INTO ANOTHER TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE

SMALL AND MIDCAP STOCKS LEAD LARGE CAPS LOWER -- THE S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF CLOSING BELOW ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- RISING DOLLAR PUSHES ENERGY SECTOR INTO ANOTHER TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE

S&P SMALL AND MIDCAP INDEXES FAIL TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGE... The pullback in stocks that started yesterday is continuing today. And it's being led down by smaller stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) falling decisively back its blue 50-day...   READ MORE 

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JUMP IN BOND YIELDS PUTS STOCK REBOUND IN JEOPARDY -- QQQ IS PULLING BACK FROM TEST OF OLD HIGH -- S&P 500 LOOKS OVEREXTENDED -- BOUNCING DOLLAR WEAKENS GOLD -- EMERGING MARKETS ARE ALSO E...

JUMP IN BOND YIELDS PUTS STOCK REBOUND IN JEOPARDY -- QQQ IS PULLING BACK FROM TEST OF OLD HIGH -- S&P 500 LOOKS OVEREXTENDED -- BOUNCING DOLLAR WEAKENS GOLD -- EMERGING MARKETS ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING PROFIT-TAKING

TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD IS BACK OVER 2.90% ... After a modest pullback that started last Thursday, bond yields are climbing again today. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) jumping 6 basis points to 2.92% and within striking distance of its four-year high reached...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REGAIN THREE-QUARTERS OF FEBRUARY SELLOFF -- QQQ NEARS TEST OF OLD HIGH -- AMERICAN AIRLINES AND UNION PACIFIC LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- COMMODITIES ARE ALSO RECOVERING

STOCKS REGAIN THREE-QUARTERS OF FEBRUARY SELLOFF -- QQQ NEARS TEST OF OLD HIGH -- AMERICAN AIRLINES AND UNION PACIFIC LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- COMMODITIES ARE ALSO RECOVERING

STOCK INDEXES GAIN MORE GROUND -- QQQ NEARS TEST OF OLD HIGH... U.S. stock indexes continue to gain more ground today and have now regained about three-quarters of their recent correction. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 trading at three-week highs after...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION -- THAT'S GIVING A BOOST TO BOND PROXIES LIKE UTILITIES, REITS, AND TELECOM -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE BOUNCING BACK WHICH IS GOOD...

BOND YIELDS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION -- THAT'S GIVING A BOOST TO BOND PROXIES LIKE UTILITIES, REITS, AND TELECOM -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE BOUNCING BACK WHICH IS GOOD FOR STOCKS

TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD IS WEAKENING ... The uptrend in bond yields is starting to weaken. The daily bar in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield falling 5 basis points to 2.87%. More importantly, its 14-day RSI line overlaid over the price bars is falling to the lowest level since...   READ MORE 

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STRONG TECH SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET -- FINANCIALS, CYCLICALS, AND INDUSTRIALS ARE ALSO LEADING -- SMALLS CAPS LOOK STRONGER -- AMERICAN AIRLINES AND KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN LEAD TR...

STRONG TECH SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET -- FINANCIALS, CYCLICALS, AND INDUSTRIALS ARE ALSO LEADING -- SMALLS CAPS LOOK STRONGER -- AMERICAN AIRLINES AND KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN LEAD TRANPORTS HIGHER

TECHNOLOGY SECTOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARKET ... My last sentence from yesterday's message was that the stock market was unlikely to suffer any serious short-term damage as long as technology stocks kept rising. That's because technology is such a big part of the stock market. And they&...   READ MORE 

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SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD THE NASDAQ AND TECHNOLOGY SECTOR HIGHER TODAY -- CHIP LEADERS INCLUDE APPLIED MATERIALS, KLA-TENCOR, AND LAM RESEARCH -- MOST OTHER SECTORS ARE IN THE RED -- DOW AND S&...

SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD THE NASDAQ AND TECHNOLOGY SECTOR HIGHER TODAY -- CHIP LEADERS INCLUDE APPLIED MATERIALS, KLA-TENCOR, AND LAM RESEARCH -- MOST OTHER SECTORS ARE IN THE RED -- DOW AND S&P 500 ARE STRUGGLING AT MOVING AVERAGE LINES

SEMICONDUCTOR ISHARES HAVE A STRONG DAY... Semiconductor stocks are the strongest part of the market today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) trading more than 2% higher today and moving further above its 50-day moving average. The SOXX has also risen above its 20-day moving average (green line)...   READ MORE 

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Recent Pullback in Commodities Is Likely Tied to Stock Correction

Recent Pullback in Commodities Is Likely Tied to Stock Correction

My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (circled...   READ MORE 

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RECENT PULLBACK IN COMMODITIES IS LIKELY TIED TO STOCK CORRECTION -- COPPER AND OIL ARE STILL IN UPTRENDS -- AND GOLD MAY BE NEAR A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- GOLD MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM...

RECENT PULLBACK IN COMMODITIES IS LIKELY TIED TO STOCK CORRECTION -- COPPER AND OIL ARE STILL IN UPTRENDS -- AND GOLD MAY BE NEAR A BULLISH BREAKOUT -- GOLD MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THIS WEEK'S BULLISH BREAKOUT IN THE YEN TO A FIFTEEN MONTH HIGH

COMMODITY PULLBACK IS TIED TO STOCKS... My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RECOVER FROM HIGHER INFLATION REPORT -- NASDAQ 100 IS FIRST INDEX TO REACH 50-DAY LINE -- BANK ETF GAINS MORE GROUND ON RISING YIELDS -- WHILE UTILITIES FALL -- JUMP IN GOLD PUTS IT...

STOCKS RECOVER FROM HIGHER INFLATION REPORT -- NASDAQ 100 IS FIRST INDEX TO REACH 50-DAY LINE -- BANK ETF GAINS MORE GROUND ON RISING YIELDS -- WHILE UTILITIES FALL -- JUMP IN GOLD PUTS IT CLOSER TO MAJOR UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- VIX DROPS TO 20

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES BOUNCE BACK FROM EARLY SELLING ... January's CPI report came in higher than expected and caused stocks to open lower. The headline reading of 2.1% and core reading (excluding food and energy) of 1.8% were higher than economists were expecting. After opening lower, stocks...   READ MORE 

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REGIONAL BANK SPDR EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- LEADERS INCLUDE M&T BANK, BB&T CORP, AND REGIONS FINANCIAL -- JPM IS ANOTHER BANK LEADER -- TRANSPORTS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- WEAK DOLLA...

REGIONAL BANK SPDR EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- LEADERS INCLUDE M&T BANK, BB&T CORP, AND REGIONS FINANCIAL -- JPM IS ANOTHER BANK LEADER -- TRANSPORTS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- WEAK DOLLAR BOOSTS METALS -- STOCK REBOUND STILL HAS FURTHER TO GO

REGIONAL BANK SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE... One of the simplest ways to determine which stock groups, or individual stocks, are leading the market higher is to look for the ones that are clearing their 50-day moving averages first (or stayed above them). Yesterday's message showed the Consumer Discretionary...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS ARE BUILDING ON FRIDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL FROM 200-DAY AVERAGE -- THE NEXT TEST WILL COME AT 50-DAY AVERAGES -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCK INDEXES ALSO BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES

STOCKS ARE BUILDING ON FRIDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL FROM 200-DAY AVERAGE -- THE NEXT TEST WILL COME AT 50-DAY AVERAGES -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCK INDEXES ALSO BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES

MARKETS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM 200-DAY LINE... Stocks continue to build on the upside reversal that took place on Friday from 200-day moving averages. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 gaining enough ground today to climb back over its 100-day line (green line). The...   READ MORE 

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AN OVERSOLD S&P 500 IS TRYING TO STABILIZE AT ITS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE -- THE VIX INDEX IS PULLING BACK FROM RESISTANCE ABOVE THE 40 LEVEL FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS WEEK

AN OVERSOLD S&P 500 IS TRYING TO STABILIZE AT ITS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE -- THE VIX INDEX IS PULLING BACK FROM RESISTANCE ABOVE THE 40 LEVEL FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS WEEK

S&P 500 IS TESTING ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE ... The downside correction that started a week ago pushed stock prices lower again today. But they're trying to stabilize in afternoon trading. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 trying to find support at its 200-day moving average....   READ MORE