WEEKLY SECTOR RANKING... A rebound on Friday leaves the major stock indexes either flat or with minor losses for the week. The weekly sector rankings in Chart 1, however, show a lot of movement beneath the surface. One factor that stands out is that defensive stock groups continue to show... READ MORE
STOCKS HAVE WORST QUARTER IN TWO YEARS...The month of March has seen a rebound in stocks. Even with that rebound, however, the first quarter of this year has been the weakest in two years. Which raises the bigger question of whether or not the recent rebound is the start... READ MORE
STOCKS ADVANCE FOR A SECOND WEEK...Major U.S. stock indexes gained ground for the second week in a row building the case for a short-term bottom having been formed. And one of them has cleared an important resistance line. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 moving back... READ MORE
STOCKS HAVE VERY STRONG WEEK... Major U.S. stock indexes registered their strongest week since November 2020. And they also broke through some initial resistance levels. The week's strong action signals that stocks have put in a short-term bottom and may continue to gain some ground. Their longer-range... READ MORE
STOCKS USUALLY PEAK AFTER BONDS... One of the most important features of intermarket analysis is the rotation that normally takes place between bonds, stocks, and commodities at major turning points in the business cycle. That rotation between the three asset classes is especially relevant to the current global situation. Those... READ MORE
WEST TEXAS CRUDE OIL REACHES 11-YEAR HIGH... The war in Ukraine continues to push oil prices sharply higher along with other commodities. That includes metals and agricultural products. Gold continues to gain ground as a traditional haven during times of rising inflation and increased global tensions. Some defensive money is... READ MORE
SELLING THE RUMOR AND BUYING THE FACT... Thursday morning's heavy selling of stocks and the buying of traditional safe havens like bonds, gold, and oil reversed sharply that same afternoon. Stocks rose while safe havens lost most of their morning's gains. That more positive trend continued... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES REACH NEW LOWS ON RUSSIAN INVASION... News of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is pushing global stocks sharply lower and pushing money into traditional safe havens like gold, oil, and bonds. The price of West Texas crude oil spiked to $100 this morning while gold prices also... READ MORE
RISING TENSIONS BOOST GOLD... With increased warnings that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely, investors are selling stocks around the world. And they're buying gold which is usually viewed as a traditional safe haven in times of heightened global tensions. Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares SPDR... READ MORE
STOCKS FAIL TEST OF MOVING AVERAGE LINES... Thursday's CPI report showed January inflation rising 7.5% on an annual basis which was the highest number in four decades (since 1982). That higher inflation number raised prospects for a more aggressive Fed starting next month, and pushed stocks sharply... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM BOUNCE RUNS INTO RESISTANCE... My last message showed the three major stock indexes in an oversold condition and trying to bounce from underlying chart support. So the recent stock rebound wasn't a surprise. Neither was the size of the rebound. The combination of overhead resistance and today&... READ MORE
OVERSOLD MARKET ATTEMPTS TO STABILIZE... After an incredibly volatile week of trading, stocks are in a short-term oversold condition and attempting to stabilize near chart support. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials stabilizing near a flat support line drawn under their June low. At the same time, the 14-day RSI... READ MORE
NASDAQ CONTINUES TO LEAD MARKET DECLINE...Stocks are suffering through another bad week, with the Nasdaq market continuing to lead the decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index has also suffered the most technical damage. It fell below its 200-day moving average last week. Chart 1 shows the COMPQ falling below its... READ MORE
NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES ON SPX... A number of negative divergences have shown up on the major stock indexes which have weakened the market's technical condition. Those divergences are showing up mainly in daily momentum oscillators. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 rallying to a new record at... READ MORE
FED MINUTES PUSH STOCKS LOWER... The release of Fed minutes yesterday from its December meeting reflected a more hawkish tone which pushed stocks lower and interest rates higher. The Nasdaq took the biggest hit owing to a big drop in technology shares which are the most vulnerable to rising rates.... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES GAIN GROUND... Stocks are ending the trading week on a strong note as shown in the three charts below. The most notable one belongs to the S&P 500 in Chart 2 which is nearing a test of its old high. Ten of eleven stock sectors are... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES WEAKEN... Stock prices are ending a volatile week on the downside. So far, no serious chart damage has been done as the three major stock indexes shown below are testing potential support at their 50-day moving averages. Stocks are struggling with the spread of the omicron virus (and... READ MORE
LARGE CAPS ARE ENDING THE WEEK HIGHER DESPITE RISING CPI... This morning CPI report showed annual inflation rising 6.8% to the highest level in nearly forty years. Despite that high reading, major stock indexes are gaining ground on the day and week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials climbing... READ MORE
MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING THREATENED... A combination of factors are pushing stocks lower again today to extend weekly losses. A weak jobs report this morning, fears of accelerated Fed tightening to fight inflation, and worries about the Omicron coronavirus are keeping stocks on the defensive. Ånd moving lines are... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES PLUNGE... Reports of a new covid variant in South Africa pushed stocks sharply lower the day after Thanksgiving. As a result, all three major U.S. stock indexes suffered short-term technical damage. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling -904 points (-2.5%) and ending the day well... READ MORE
S&P 500 SHOWS SOME NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... Stocks are ending the week in a mixed fashion. The Dow Jones Industrials are weakening, while the Nasdaq 100 is hitting a new record. That being the case, this message will focus on the S&P 500 which is in the... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES MAINTAIN UPTRENDS... Stocks are ending the week trying to make up some losses from Wednesday's sharp selloff after the CPI annual inflation report of 6.2% was the highest level in thirty years. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrial staying above its 20-day moving average. Charts... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD... A strong jobs report has boosted major stock indexes into record territory with most sectors also rising. Industrials are one of the day's strongest sectors. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) moving into record territory today. It's being led... READ MORE
A LONGER TERM LOOK AT OIL... Energy inflation is grabbing a lot of headlines these days and for good reason. Energy prices are hitting the highest level in years. That includes natural gas and crude oil. Today's message will focus on the next potential upside target for oil.... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO RALLY... While the Dow Industrials continue to test their old highs, transportation stocks continue to act much stronger. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports rising today to the highest level in nearly five months. That shouldn't be too surprising with companies dealing with supply... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY LINES... Stocks are rising again today following yesterday's strong rally. And their technical condition is looking stronger. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials rising to the highest level in a month and moving back above its blue 50-day average. Chart 2 shows the S&... READ MORE
ENERGY ETFS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS... Rising energy prices continue to fuel a rally in energy shares which are the day's strongest sector. Crude oil and natural gas are trading at the highest level in several years and show no signs of slowing down. That's contributing to... READ MORE
WATCHING 100-DAY AVERAGES...Stocks remain in a short- to intermediate term downturn that started during September. And moving average lines are being broken. It started with stock indexes falling below their 50-day moving averages. And then falling below their 100-day lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS 3-MONTH HIGH...The steep rise in Treasury yields that started last week continued again today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing 5 basis points today to 1.53%. That puts the TNX at the highest level in three months. Yields are being pushed higher... READ MORE
STOCKS MAKE UP LOST GROUND...Two strong days in a row have more than made back losses suffered on Monday. In addition, some of the short-term technical damage has been repaired. More specifically, 50-day moving averages that were broken on Monday have been regained on the S&P 500... READ MORE
SEPTEMBER SELLING DEEPENS ON CHINA CONCERNS... Monday's heavy selling of stocks was the biggest drop since the spring. The selling started in China on concerns over its property market and spread to Europe and the U.S. Going into Monday, stocks were already pulling back on fears that... READ MORE
S&P 500 TESTS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 trying to find support at its 50-day moving average (blue arrow). Stocks have entered a seasonally weak period extending from September into October. And despite the general consensus that stocks are due for a... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REBOUNDS... A strong July jobs report is helping boost bond yields today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield bouncing 7 basis points to 1.29% on the day. A small double bottom on the daily bars suggests that a bottom may be forming. The TNX is... READ MORE
S&P 500 TOUCHES NEW RECORD... Stocks continue to rise with major stock indexes at or near record highs. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 touching new record territory. Smaller stocks have been lagging behind the large cap rally. But are starting to look stronger. That includes... READ MORE
MARKET REBOUND CONTINUES... Stocks had another strong day today and have more than made back their sharp losses from Monday. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials closing above their 50-day average for the second day in row. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 gaining more ground following Monday&... READ MORE
DOW SHATTERS 50-DAY LINE... Stocks are opening the week sharply lower and on the pace for one of the year's biggest losses. Although all market averages are under pressure, the Dow is leading the decline. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials plunging below their 50-day average. The next... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE BOTTOMING... A combination of technical factors suggests that the recent decline in bond yields may be at or near a bottom. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield starting to find support near its red 200-day moving average which usually acts as a support line... READ MORE
TECH SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH... Stocks are trading higher again today on the back of a stronger than expected jobs report. Eight of eleven market sectors are rising with technology in the lead. Relative strength by the tech sector is something we've been seeing a lot of lately.... READ MORE
NASDAQ BREAKS OUT TO NEW RECORD... Stocks are having another strong day with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hitting new records. The Nasdaq breakout is especially impressive. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index having broken through its February/April highs to reach new record territory. In... READ MORE
DOW UNDERCUTS ITS MAY LOW... Some hawkish comments on interest rates by a member of the Fed this morning is taking a negative toll on stocks. The Dow is under the most pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its May low to the lowest level in nearly... READ MORE