My last message discussed how money was starting to rotate out of an over-extended U.S. stock market into foreign stocks which are trying to catch up to the U.S. market. This message will build on that theme by using ratio (or relative strength analysis). Chart 1 plots a... READ MORE
SPY CORRECTS WITH FALLING FLAG... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 ETF is lagging the Russell 2000 ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF, but the long-term trend is up and the current decline looks like a correction. Chart 1 shows SPY hitting a new high in... READ MORE
U.S. STOCKS WEAKEN VERSUS FOREIGN STOCKS... My last message discussed how money was starting to rotate out of an over-extended U.S. stock market into foreign stocks which are trying to catch up to the U.S. market. This message will build on that theme by using ratio (or... READ MORE
SELLING PRESSURE HITS THE AEROSPACE-DEFENSE ETF ... Link for today's video. Defense stocks are feeling a little heat today as the government shutdown extends and the debt ceiling looms. Chart 1 shows the Aerospace-Defense ETF (PPA) falling over 1% and testing broken resistance in the 27.27.4 area.... READ MORE
REVIEWING THE VOLATILITY OF AUGUST 2011... Link for today's video. The possible government shutdown is dominating the headlines today, but gridlock could dominate for several weeks because the debt ceiling is next on the agenda. Even though the market is well aware of the situation in Washington, there... READ MORE
GERMAN DAX HITS NEW RECORD -- GERMANY ISHARES ALSO BREAKOUT... Europe has been emerging as one of the world's stock market leaders. A lot of that has to do with strength in Germany which is the region's biggest economy. The last week's impressive victory... READ MORE
IWM AND QQQ STALL AFTER MARKET LEADING SURGES... Link for today's video. While there could be some short-term headwinds for the stock market, the long-term picture remains positive with new highs in the major index ETFs this month and leadership from key groups. New highs occur in uptrends,... READ MORE
CHEMICAL STOCKS DRIVE THE MATERIALS SECTOR... Link for today's video. Know thy sector SPDR. When trading or investing in the nine sector SPDRs, it is important to know the top components because the top ten stocks in each sector account for over 40% of the sector's... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR IS GOOD FOR GOLD... During the Stockcharts' New York seminar over the weekend, we got into a discussion of gold. One of the attendees asked why I remained negative on gold's long term trend in the face of a declining dollar. I responded that there... READ MORE
FINANCE SECTOR AND REGIONAL BANKS WEIGH ON MARKET... Link for today's video. I wrote about relative weakness in the Finance SPDR (XLF) last week and this key sector is weighing on the market today. Banks could be under pressure because of a high level of uncertainty at the... READ MORE
The Fed surprised everyone yesterday by deciding not to start its widely anticipated tapering of bond purchases. Although that decision was a surprise, market reactions weren't. In fact, each market did pretty much was one would expect. Bond yields tumbled and bond prices soared. Stocks surged around the... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY, INDUSTRIALS AND TECHNOLOGY SPDRS HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for today's video. Even though the finance sector is lagging the market this month, the other three offensive sectors are picking up the slack and showing relative strength. There are different ways to measure relative performance and find... READ MORE
RATE SENSITIVE STOCKS SURGE ON BOND RALLY... The Fed surprised everyone yesterday by deciding not to start its widely anticipated tapering of bond purchases. Although that decision was a surprise, market reactions weren't. In fact, each market did pretty much was one would expect. Bond yields tumbled and... READ MORE
STOCKS EXTEND UPTRENDS AFTER THE SEPTEMBER SURPRISE ... Link for today's video. The September Fed meeting has come and gone, and nothing changed, which was a surprise to most pundits. In its policy statement, the Fed decided not to taper its bond-buying program because the FOMC wants to wait... READ MORE
FINANCIALS AND INDUSTRIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... Link for today's video. The Finance SPDR (XLF), the Industrials SPDR (XLI) and the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) are leading the stock market sectors with the biggest gains on Monday. Also note that XLI, XLB, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), the Technology... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM LARGE-CAPS... Link for today's video. September has been a good month for stocks with the Russell 2000, Nasdaq and S&P 500 advancing over 3% month-to-date (nine trading days). The Russell 2000 is the leader of the pack as small-caps continue to show... READ MORE
SHIPPING RATES SOAR AS CHINA BUYS MORE ORE... This headline is from today's Wall Street Journal (by Costas Paris and Francesa Freeman, p.C1). I'm writing about it today because it fits into comments made in my last market message about how a rising Chinese stock... READ MORE
SPY EXTENDS BREAKOUT WITH A GAP... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ended its correction with a breakout last week and surge above 168 this week. First, I think we can all agree at the long-term trend for SPY (aka The Stock Market)... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS LEAD US HIGHER -- EEM BREAKOUT... In a role reversal from the first half of the year, foreign stocks are leading U.S. stocks higher. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares (EFA) gapping to a new three-month high today and on the verge of the highest close in five... READ MORE
XLB SHOWS LEADERSHIP WITH FLAG BREAKOUT... Link for today's video. Strength in Asia markets, which are covered below, is providing a lift to the materials sector and related industry groups. Chart 1 shows the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) breaking above flag resistance with a surge the last six... READ MORE
The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) reaching a new two-year high today and very close to breaching the psychologally important 3% barrier for the first time since early 2011. The TNX has also cleared a five-year resistance line extending back to 2007 (see... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDER ETF BOUNCES, BUT REMAINS SHORT OF BREAKOUT - USG GAPS UP... Link for today's video. Treasury yields fell after Friday's jobs report and interest rate sensitive stocks got a bounce as utilities, REITs and homebuilders moved higher. In particular, I would like to focus on... READ MORE
BOND YIELD REACHES NEW TWO-YEAR HIGH... The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) reaching a new two-year high today and very close to breaching the psychologally important 3% barrier for the first time since early 2011. The TNX has also cleared a five-year resistance... READ MORE
SPY CHALLENGES GAP ZONE AND FIRST RESISTANCE... Link for today's video. The major index ETFs remain in short-term downtrends since early August and long-term uptrends since mid November. This short-term downtrend is a correction that is entering its fifth week and marks the third correction of the year.... READ MORE
EAFE ISHARES GAP HIGHER... The rest of the world rallied on Monday while the U.S. was closed for Labor Day. Foreign stock ETFs (which were also closed on Monday) are playing catch-up today to yesterday's gains. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares (EFA) gapping more than 2% higher... READ MORE
DOLLAR BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT AS EURO WEAKENS... Last Saturday's message showed the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) testing important chart support at its June low. Chart 1 shows the USD rising to a three week high. That's not enough to signal a major upturn, but... READ MORE
HOW MUCH CORRECTION CAN WE EXPECT FROM SPY AND IWM?... Link for today's video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) extended its correction with the third weekly decline in four weeks. Even though the bigger trend is still up, this correction could extend in both price and... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR BOUNCES WITHIN FALLING WEDGE... Link for today's video. Stocks are rebounding today with the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) leading the way. Chart 1 shows XSD finding support near broken resistance in the 54 area. Despite today's move, the ETF remains in a short-term downtrend that... READ MORE
BROAD SELLING HITS STOCK MARKET ... Stocks were hit with broad selling pressure on Tuesday as traders worried over possible US involvement in Syria. Combined with tensions in Egypt, turmoil in the Middle East is clearly unnerving the markets. Note that gold and oil are both up. I will have charts... READ MORE
AMGEN LEADS BIOTECH SPDR HIGHER... Link for today's video. Biotechs continue to show relative strength as the Biotech SPDR (XBI) led the market on Monday. Chart 1 shows XBI bottoming in mid November and moving higher the last 10 months. The ETF surged to a new high in... READ MORE
U.S. DOLLAR IONDEX IS TESTING JUNE LOW... The U.S. dollar is in the process of testing a couple of important support lines. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) testing a support line drawn under its June low. That's an important test, because a... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CORRECTS WITH BIGGER UPTREND... Link for today's video. The current uptrend in the stock market began in mid November. Since this low, the major index ETFs and most sector SPDRs have zigzagged higher with a series of rising peaks and rising troughs. With last week&... READ MORE
QQQ FORMS SMALL FLAG AFTER GAP... Link for today's video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) remains in an uptrend overall, but the short-term trend is down as the gap holds for four days (today is the fifth). Chart 1 shows QQQ within an uptrend overall as prices advanced... READ MORE
MIND THE GAP IN SPY... Link for today's video. In Friday's Market Message I showed some correction targets for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) using weekly charts. Today I would like to get more granular by using daily charts... READ MORE
The uptrend that started in bond yields during May is resuming. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) hitting a new recovery high today. That resumes the uptrend in bond yields. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show that the TNX is now trading at the highest level... READ MORE
SETTING CORRECTION TARGETS FOR IWM AND SPY... Link for today's video. Based on this week's price action and short-term downtrends in a number of breadth indicators, the market appears to have entered into a corrective period. This is hardly surprising given the run up from mid... READ MORE
BOND YIELD RESUMES UPTREND... The uptrend that started in bond yields during May is resuming. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) hitting a new recovery high today. That resumes the uptrend in bond yields. The weekly bars in Chart 2 show that the TNX is now trading... READ MORE
RETAIL SALES GROWTH SLOWS... Link for today's video. The Commerce Department reported a .2 percent rise in retail sales for July. Even though this gain was less than the June gain (.6 percent), it was still positive and still supports economic growth, albeit slow growth. To put this... READ MORE
SPY AND IWM EXTEND CONSOLIDATIONS ... Link for today's video. After a big move from late June to mid July, stocks turned indecisive the last few weeks as the market consolidated. Chartists can now watch the consolidation lows in the major index ETFs for signs that a correction is... READ MORE
COPPER, MINING AND STEEL ETFS EXTEND BOUNCE - SCTRS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THOUGH... Link for today's video. The Copper Miners ETF (COPX), the Metals and Mining ETF (XME) and the Steel ETF (SLX) were three of the best performing industry group ETFs this week. In fact, these three... READ MORE