John Murphy

John Murphy


A trailblazer in intermarket analysis, John authored key texts that shaped technical trading and helped generations of investors decode market trends using charts and correlations. Learn More 

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BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB -- THAT'S HELPING BANK STOCKS

BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO CLIMB -- THAT'S HELPING BANK STOCKS

TEN-YEAR YIELD EXTENDS UPTREND... The uptrend in bond yields is continuing.   The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield touching a new recovery high in today's trading.    That puts the TNX at the highest level since last March.  The horizontal line in Chart 2 shows...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE WHICH SUGGESTS MORE INFLATION -- RISING COMMODITIES ARE BOOSTING BOND YIELDS AND THE YIELD CURVE

COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE WHICH SUGGESTS MORE INFLATION -- RISING COMMODITIES ARE BOOSTING BOND YIELDS AND THE YIELD CURVE

CRB INDEX BREAKS TRENDLINE RESISTANCE... The current rally in commodity markets is attracting a lot of attention.   Not just because commodities represent an asset class that's been attracting a lot of money over the last year.   But also because of their intermarket implications.    Stronger commodity markets are usually...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY SPDR NEARS TEST OF JUNE HIGH -- A NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL STOCKS ARE ALSO TESTING THAT CHART BARRIER -- CRUDE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB

ENERGY SPDR NEARS TEST OF JUNE HIGH -- A NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL STOCKS ARE ALSO TESTING THAT CHART BARRIER -- CRUDE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB

ENERGY SPDR NEARS TEST OF JUNE HIGH...Energy stocks continue to show both absolute and relative strength.   They're leading the market higher today, and have been the market's strongest sector over the last three months.   And they're approaching an important test.   The daily bars...   READ MORE 

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Russell 2000 Hits New Record as Small Cap Leadership Continues

Russell 2000 Hits New Record as Small Cap Leadership Continues

Stocks are ending the week on a firm note with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading in record territory. The Dow isn't far behind. Small cap stocks, however, continue to lead the market higher. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM)...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 HITS NEW RECORD AS SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP CONTINUES -- SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP IS THE STRONGEST IN DECADE -- RISING BOND YIELDS HELP SMALL CAPS

RUSSELL 2000 HITS NEW RECORD AS SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP CONTINUES -- SMALL CAP LEADERSHIP IS THE STRONGEST IN DECADE -- RISING BOND YIELDS HELP SMALL CAPS

RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD... Stocks are ending the week on a firm note with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading in record territory.   The Dow isn't far behind.  Small cap stocks, however, continue to lead the market higher.   The daily bars in Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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TAKING ANOTHER LOOK AT BITCOIN

TAKING ANOTHER LOOK AT BITCOIN

BITCOIN BOUNCES OFF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE... A couple of recent messages took a look at Bitcoin as it underwent a downside correction.    We'll take another look today.   The main message is that it's starting to look stronger.  Chart 1 shows Bitcoin in what looks like a...   READ MORE 

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GAMESTOP AND AMC GAP LOWER -- SO DOES SILVER AND ITS MINERS -- DOW REGAINS 50-DAY LINE

GAMESTOP AND AMC GAP LOWER -- SO DOES SILVER AND ITS MINERS -- DOW REGAINS 50-DAY LINE

GAMESTOP AND AMC GAP SHARPLY LOWER... The recent short-squeeze mania may have finally run its course.   Charts 1 and 2 show GameStop And AMC gapping sharply lower today.   Other stocks caught up in the short squeeze are trading sharply lower as well.   To the extent that last week's...   READ MORE 

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TECHNOLOGY LEADING MARKET HIGHER -- A LOOK AT THE BIGGEST TECHS -- SILVER SQUEEZE?

TECHNOLOGY LEADING MARKET HIGHER -- A LOOK AT THE BIGGEST TECHS -- SILVER SQUEEZE?

TECHNOLOGY STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER ... Technology stocks are the strongest sector in a strong market day.   The Technology SPDR (XLK) is trading nearly 3% higher today.  The biggest tech stocks are also having a strong day.  Chart 1 shows Apple gaining nearly 2% while keeping its uptrend intact.  Chart 2...   READ MORE 

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GameStop Mania May Be Contributing to Selling

GameStop Mania May Be Contributing to Selling

Stock indexes remain under pressure again today and are pressuring moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early November. It may be headed for a test of a potential support line drawn over its early September high....   READ MORE 

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WEEKLY SECTOR RANKING SHOWS MORE CAUTION

WEEKLY SECTOR RANKING SHOWS MORE CAUTION

STOCKS TURN MORE DEFENSIVE...With stocks under pressure this week, it makes sense to see its eleven market sectors taking a more defensive turn as well.   Chart 1 ranks the eleven market sectors from the strongest at the top to the weakest on the bottom.   The first thing to notice...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE -- SOME MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING BROKEN -- GAMESTOP MANIA MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO SELLING

STOCKS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE -- SOME MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING BROKEN -- GAMESTOP MANIA MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO SELLING

STOCKS TEST MOVING AVERAGE LINES... Stock indexes remain under pressure again today and are pressuring moving average lines.   Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early November.   It may be headed for a test of a potential support line drawn...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS UNDERGO SOME PROFIT-TAKING -- SOME MACD DIVERGENCES TO WATCH

STOCKS UNDERGO SOME PROFIT-TAKING -- SOME MACD DIVERGENCES TO WATCH

DAILY MACD LINES SHOW NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... Stocks are undergoing some profit-taking today in a market that looks stretched on the upside.    One of the factors that concerns me is the relatively weak performance by daily MACD lines.    Chart 1 overlays the MACD lines on a daily chart of the S&...   READ MORE 

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BITCOIN TESTS UNDERLYING SUPPORT LEVELS

BITCOIN TESTS UNDERLYING SUPPORT LEVELS

BITCOIN RETESTS JANUARY LOW... Bitcoin remains in a downside correction that started earlier in January.  And it's testing some important support levels.   The daily bars in Chart 1 show bitcoin testing a couple of support levels formed earlier in the month (horizontal lines).  It's also nearing...   READ MORE 

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BIG TECH STOCKS ARE MAKING A COMEBACK -- QQQ IS SHOWING NEW LEADERSHIP

BIG TECH STOCKS ARE MAKING A COMEBACK -- QQQ IS SHOWING NEW LEADERSHIP

BIT TECHS ARE DOING BETTER... The largest technology stocks have been trading sideways over the past few months while the rest of the market has been rallying.   The last two days, however, are showing money starting to flow back into some of the biggest tech stocks.   Chart 1 shows Apple...   READ MORE 

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A Three-Month Look at Sector Leadership Shows More Optimism

A Three-Month Look at Sector Leadership Shows More Optimism

The last three months have seen rising stock prices. What's especially encouraging is which sectors have led the market higher. Chart 1 plots the sector performance over those three months. The top five sectors have been energy, financials, materials, industrials, and consumer cyclicals. All five are economically-sensitive stock...   READ MORE 

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A THREE-MONTH LOOK AT SECTOR LEADERSHIP SHOWS MORE OPTIMISM -- RISING COMMODITY PRICES AND RISING BOND YIELDS HAVE ALSO PLAYED A ROLE

A THREE-MONTH LOOK AT SECTOR LEADERSHIP SHOWS MORE OPTIMISM -- RISING COMMODITY PRICES AND RISING BOND YIELDS HAVE ALSO PLAYED A ROLE

ECONOMICALLY-SENSTIVE GROUPS HAVE BEEN MARKET LEADERS...The last three months have seen rising stock prices. What's especially encouraging is which sectors have led the market higher. Chart 1 plots the sector performance over those three months. The top five sectors have been energy, financials, materials, industrials, and consumer...   READ MORE 

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ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE TRANSPORTS HIT NEW HIGHS -- WHILE DEFENSIVE UTILITIES LAG BEHIND -- BITCOIN REBOUNDS

ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE TRANSPORTS HIT NEW HIGHS -- WHILE DEFENSIVE UTILITIES LAG BEHIND -- BITCOIN REBOUNDS

TRANSPORTS HIT NEW RECORD... It's usually a good sign to see more economically-sensitive groups hitting new highs, while more defensive groups are lagging behind.   Two examples of that are seen by comparing the transportation stocks and utilities.   Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports hitting a new record again...   READ MORE 

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GRAIN MARKETS REACH MULTI-YEAR HIGHS -- CRB INDEX TESTS TRENDLINE RESISTANCE -- A LONGER-TERM LOOK AT COMMODITY PRICES

GRAIN MARKETS REACH MULTI-YEAR HIGHS -- CRB INDEX TESTS TRENDLINE RESISTANCE -- A LONGER-TERM LOOK AT COMMODITY PRICES

GRAIN MARKETS ARE IN NEW UPTRENDS... Higher commodity markets are starting to attract more attention because of the potential for higher inflation.   Past messages have written about new uptrends in energy markets or industrial commodities like copper.   Some of the biggest gains, however, are being seen in agricultural markets, and...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY ETFS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- OIH HAS ALREADY CLEARED ITS JUNE HIGH -- RISING ENERGY SHARES ARE PART OF THE REFLATION TRADE

ENERGY ETFS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- OIH HAS ALREADY CLEARED ITS JUNE HIGH -- RISING ENERGY SHARES ARE PART OF THE REFLATION TRADE

ENERGY ETFS CONTINUE CLIMBING... Energy stocks continue to show new market leadership.   That leadership is reflected in two energy ETFs that may be nearing some upside breakouts, and one having already achieved one.   Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) trading at the highest level in more than six...   READ MORE 

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BITCOIN FINALLY CORRECTS

BITCOIN FINALLY CORRECTS

BITCOIN CORRECTS VERY OVERBOUGHT CONDITION...The rally in bitcoin over the past year has been nothing short of spectacular.  The daily bars in Chart 1 show how big that gain has been.   Prices have gone from $4000 in the spring to $40000 last week.  It also doubled in price from...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 1% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH -- THAT'S HELPING MAKE FINANCIALS THE DAY'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- MATERIALS AND INDUSTRIALS HIT RECORDS

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 1% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH -- THAT'S HELPING MAKE FINANCIALS THE DAY'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- MATERIALS AND INDUSTRIALS HIT RECORDS

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 1%... Bond yields and stocks are climbing sharply today on hopes for more stimulus spending.  And the market is being led higher by more economically-sensitive stocks like financials, materials, energy, and industrials.   Financials in particular are getting big boost from rising bond yields.   Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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GOLD AND SILVER SURGE -- SILVER AND ITS MINERS ARE RISING FASTER -- STOCKS WEAKEN

GOLD AND SILVER SURGE -- SILVER AND ITS MINERS ARE RISING FASTER -- STOCKS WEAKEN

GOLD AND SILVER SURGE... A couple of recent messages described the price of gold being in a downside correction but finding support near its 200-day moving average.   The most recent message showed both metals gaining more ground which suggested that their correction might be ending.     Both precious metals are surging...   READ MORE 

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A Longer Term Look at Freeport McMoran Shows a New Bull Trend

A Longer Term Look at Freeport McMoran Shows a New Bull Trend

This article is about using charts in different time spans to gain a better perspective on an individual stock or any other market. I'm using copper producer Freeport McMoran (FCX) to make that point. I'm picking that stock because it's Wednesday's biggest...   READ MORE 

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A LONGER TERM LOOK AT FREEPORT MCMORAN SHOWS A NEW BULL TREND

A LONGER TERM LOOK AT FREEPORT MCMORAN SHOWS A NEW BULL TREND

FREEPORT MCMORAN HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH... This article is about using charts in different time spans to gain a better perspective on an individual stock or any other market.  I'm using copper producer Freeport McMoran (FCX) to make that point.   I'm picking that stock because it&...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 GIVES SHORT-TERM WARNING -- RSI WEAKENS -- MACD LINES TURN NEGATIVE

RUSSELL 2000 GIVES SHORT-TERM WARNING -- RSI WEAKENS -- MACD LINES TURN NEGATIVE

RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES WEAKEN...Stocks are having trouble holding onto today's intra-day records.   Small caps in particular are showing some new signs of weakness.   The daily bars in Chart 1 show the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) trading lower for the third day in a row.   Of more concern...   READ MORE 

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Stock Uptrend Continues

Stock Uptrend Continues

Tuesday's message used hourly bar charts to show the three major stock indexes holding short-term support levels. Wednesday's daily bars show stocks continuing to stay above their green 20-day moving averages. They're usually the first line of support on market pullbacks. Ten of eleven...   READ MORE 

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STOCK UPTREND CONTINUES -- FINANCIALS HIT NEW RECOVERY HIGH -- CORPORATE BONDS MOVE UP WITH STOCKS

STOCK UPTREND CONTINUES -- FINANCIALS HIT NEW RECOVERY HIGH -- CORPORATE BONDS MOVE UP WITH STOCKS

20-DAY AVERAGES ARE HOLDING... Yesterday's message used hourly bar charts to show the three major stock indexes holding short-term support levels.   Today's daily bars show stocks continuing to stay above their green 20-day moving averages.   They're usually the first line of support on market...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES HOLD SHORT-TERM SUPPORT LEVELS -- THE QQQ IS THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE

STOCK INDEXES HOLD SHORT-TERM SUPPORT LEVELS -- THE QQQ IS THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE

STOCK INDEXES HOLD SHORT-TERM SUPPORT... The Dow and S&P 500 have spend the past the last couple of weeks consolidating within existing uptrends.   And they've managed to hold onto their existing uptrends.  The hourly bars in Chart 1 show yesterday morning's pullback in the...   READ MORE 

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GOLD ETF MOVES FURTHER ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SILVER ETF HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH -- DEFINITION OF SANTA CLAUS RALLY

GOLD ETF MOVES FURTHER ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SILVER ETF HITS THREE-MONTH HIGH -- DEFINITION OF SANTA CLAUS RALLY

PRECIOUS METALS ADVANCE... My message from December 8 wrote about gold trying to find support near its 200-day moving average.  It also showed silver trying to stabilize as well.   Both precious metals are having a strong day and moving above some short-term resistance levels.  Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares...   READ MORE 

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20-DAY MOVING AVERAGES ARE HOLDING FOR MAJOR STOCK INDEXES -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR NEARS TEST OF OLD HIGH -- APPLE HAS A BREAKOUT DAY

20-DAY MOVING AVERAGES ARE HOLDING FOR MAJOR STOCK INDEXES -- TECHNOLOGY SPDR NEARS TEST OF OLD HIGH -- APPLE HAS A BREAKOUT DAY

STOCK INDEXES MAINTAIN UPTREND... Stocks experienced some minor profit-taking over the last week but have maintained their uptrends.   All three of the major stock indexes have found support along their 20-day moving averages.    Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials bouncing off their green 20-day line.   Charts 2 and 3 show...   READ MORE 

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United States Oil Fund Breaks Out

United States Oil Fund Breaks Out

The price of crude oil continues to rise and is pulling energy shares along with it. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) surging to the highest level in eight months after clearing its previous high formed during August. The USO has also climbed above its 200-day moving...   READ MORE 

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TODAY'S ENERGY LEADERS INCLUDE APACHE, HESS, DEVON ENERGY, AND CHEVRON

TODAY'S ENERGY LEADERS INCLUDE APACHE, HESS, DEVON ENERGY, AND CHEVRON

ENERGY LEADERS...This morning's message showed the price of oil breaking above its August high which helped make energy the day's strongest sector.   Energy stocks are also among the day's biggest individual gainers in the overall market.  Three of the individual leaders are shown...   READ MORE 

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UNITED STATES OIL FUND BREAKS OUT -- ENERGY CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- ENERGY ETFS APPEAR HEADED TOWARD JUNE HIGHS

UNITED STATES OIL FUND BREAKS OUT -- ENERGY CONTINUES TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- ENERGY ETFS APPEAR HEADED TOWARD JUNE HIGHS

UNITED STATES OIL FUND BREAKOUT... The price of crude oil continues to rise and is pulling energy shares along with it.  Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) surging to the highest level in  eight months after clearing its previous high formed during August.  The USO has also...   READ MORE 

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STOCK INDEXES MAY BE LOSING SOME UPSIDE MOMENTUM

STOCK INDEXES MAY BE LOSING SOME UPSIDE MOMENTUM

SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM INDICATORS START TO WEAKEN... Stocks are still in the midst of a strong run that started in early November.   But they're starting to look stretched over the short run; and may be vulnerable to some profit-taking.   The two upper boxes in Chart 1 show the RSI...   READ MORE 

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GOLD AND ITS MINERS TRY TO HOLD 200-DAY LINES -- SILVER AND ITS MINERS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT ALSO TESTING UNDERYING SUPPORT LEVELS -- RISING BOND YIELDS MAY BE HOLDING GOLD BACK

GOLD AND ITS MINERS TRY TO HOLD 200-DAY LINES -- SILVER AND ITS MINERS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT ALSO TESTING UNDERYING SUPPORT LEVELS -- RISING BOND YIELDS MAY BE HOLDING GOLD BACK

GOLD SPDR TRIES TO HOLD 200-DAY LINE...Gold has been in a downside correction since the start of August.  And it's now undergoing an important test.   Chart 1 shows the Gold Shares SPDR (GLD) trading back above their 200-day moving average after slipping below it near the end...   READ MORE 

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CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH -- WHILE CANADIAN ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD -- RISING CURRENCY FAVORS CANADA ISHARES

CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH -- WHILE CANADIAN ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD -- RISING CURRENCY FAVORS CANADA ISHARES

CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS TWO-YEAR HIGH...With the U.S. dollar falling to the lowest level in more than two years, foreign currencies are rising.   One of them is the Canadian Dollar.   The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the $CDW rising to the highest level in two years.   Since Canada...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR IS BOOSTING COMMODITY PRICES -- MOST COMMODITY GROUPS ARE RISING -- COPPER HITS SEVEN YEAR HIGH -- WHILE GOLD RETREATS

FALLING DOLLAR IS BOOSTING COMMODITY PRICES -- MOST COMMODITY GROUPS ARE RISING -- COPPER HITS SEVEN YEAR HIGH -- WHILE GOLD RETREATS

FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITY PRICES...One of the side-effects of a falling dollar is usually rising commodity prices.   That's partly because global commodities are priced in dollars.    And our first chart reflects their inverse relationship.    Chart 1 shows the Invesco DB Commodity Index (DBC) in a rising trend...   READ MORE 

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TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEAR 1% MARK... STOCK INDEXES ARE HITTING NEW RECORDS -- FINANCIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECOVERY HIGH

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEAR 1% MARK... STOCK INDEXES ARE HITTING NEW RECORDS -- FINANCIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECOVERY HIGH

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD NEARS 1%... Treasury bond yields continue to climb and are hitting new recovery highs.   Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield trading rising 5 basis points today to .96%.  It also touched the highest level since March.   That's obviously bad for Treasury bond prices which...   READ MORE 

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AIRLINE ETF TURNS UP -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE DELTA, ALASKA AIR, AND SOUTHWEST -- BOEING HAS A BREAKOUT DAY

AIRLINE ETF TURNS UP -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE DELTA, ALASKA AIR, AND SOUTHWEST -- BOEING HAS A BREAKOUT DAY

AIRLINE ETF CLEARS JUNE HIGH... Airline stocks continue to gain more altitude and show stronger chart patterns.   Chart 1 shows the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) surging to the highest level since the spring.  The upper box shows its relative strength ratio rising to the highest level since June.  A...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD -- A NUMBER OF ITS LARGEST STOCKS ARE IN CONSOLIDATION PATTERNS -- APPLE HITS SEVEN-WEEK HIGH -- MICROSFT, AMAZON, AND FACEBOOK MAY BE IN TRIANGULAR FORMATIONS

NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD -- A NUMBER OF ITS LARGEST STOCKS ARE IN CONSOLIDATION PATTERNS -- APPLE HITS SEVEN-WEEK HIGH -- MICROSFT, AMAZON, AND FACEBOOK MAY BE IN TRIANGULAR FORMATIONS

NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD...With the Dow and S&P 500 reaching new records, the tech-dominated Nasdaq market has been lagging behind.   Not anymore.  Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust trading in record territory today.  It's also the strongest of the major U.S. stock...   READ MORE