John Murphy

John Murphy


John is a renowned author in the investment field and former technical analyst for CNBC. Considered the father of intermarket technical analysis, his books include “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” and “Trading with Intermarket Analysis”. Learn More 

Archived News

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EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ON MONDAY ALONG WITH US STOCK FUTURES -- INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS STILL PAINT A NEGATIVE PICTURE FOR STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS A RISING DOLLAR HURTS BOTH -- CORPORAT...

EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ON MONDAY ALONG WITH US STOCK FUTURES -- INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS STILL PAINT A NEGATIVE PICTURE FOR STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS A RISING DOLLAR HURTS BOTH -- CORPORATE BONDS PLAY CATCH-UP

EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ... Although U.S. markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, foreign markets are open. And, unfortunately, most of them are dropping. That includes Brazil, Canada, and Europe. Stocks fell in all 18 western European markets. A catalyst for European weakness was a 67% plunge in...   READ MORE 

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BEWARE OF SHORT-TERM WHIPSAWS -- USE LONG-TERM CHARTS TO FILTER DAILY SIGNALS -- MORE BOND ETFS ARE BOUNCING

BEWARE OF SHORT-TERM WHIPSAWS -- USE LONG-TERM CHARTS TO FILTER DAILY SIGNALS -- MORE BOND ETFS ARE BOUNCING

OTHER BOND CATEGORIES ARE BOUNCING... I recently wrote about how investment grade corporate bonds were starting to gain some ground on Treasury bonds. Today, I'm adding two other bond categories to that list. The flat line in Chart 1 is the 20+Year Treasury Bond iShares (TLT) which...   READ MORE 

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TECHS LEAD REBOUND -- QQQQ BATTLES SUPPORT - A FEEBLE RETRACEMENT RALLY -- LONG-TERM SUPPORT FOR SPY -- EURO HITS SUPPORT AS DOLLAR HITS RESISTANCE

TECHS LEAD REBOUND -- QQQQ BATTLES SUPPORT - A FEEBLE RETRACEMENT RALLY -- LONG-TERM SUPPORT FOR SPY -- EURO HITS SUPPORT AS DOLLAR HITS RESISTANCE

TECHS LEAD MARKET REBOUND ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor After plunging the first two hours of trading, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) firmed and then surged higher in the afternoon. Chart 1 shows QQQQ swing over 4% from low to high during the...   READ MORE 

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DIA AND SPY BREAK SUPPORT -- DECLINE IN RETAIL SALES HITS RETAIL ETFS -- FINANCIALS STILL LEADING LOWER -- SECTOR LAGGARDS IN JANUARY - DOW THEORY WITH A TWIST -- ENERGY IS BIGGER THAN FIN...

DIA AND SPY BREAK SUPPORT -- DECLINE IN RETAIL SALES HITS RETAIL ETFS -- FINANCIALS STILL LEADING LOWER -- SECTOR LAGGARDS IN JANUARY - DOW THEORY WITH A TWIST -- ENERGY IS BIGGER THAN FINANCE

DIA AND SPY BREAK SUPPORT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor A broad decline in stocks pushed the Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) below their late-December lows. All sectors were down with financials and energy leading the...   READ MORE 

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THE DOLLAR AND YEN CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND WHICH IS KEEPING GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES UNDER PRESSURE -- THE RISING YEN, HOWEVER, DOESN'T HELP JAPANESE STOCKS

THE DOLLAR AND YEN CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND WHICH IS KEEPING GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES UNDER PRESSURE -- THE RISING YEN, HOWEVER, DOESN'T HELP JAPANESE STOCKS

FLIGHT TO DOLLAR AND YEN ... I wrote yesterday that this week's rebound in the US Dollar Index and the Japanese Yen were negative signs for commodities and stocks. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dollar and the yen rising again today. The rising dollar is keeping downward pressure...   READ MORE 

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CURRENCY TRENDS SHOW THAT MARKETS ARE STILL RISK AVERSE -- A BOUNCING DOLLAR HURTS COMMODITIES AND A RISING YEN IS BAD FOR STOCKS

CURRENCY TRENDS SHOW THAT MARKETS ARE STILL RISK AVERSE -- A BOUNCING DOLLAR HURTS COMMODITIES AND A RISING YEN IS BAD FOR STOCKS

RISING DOLLAR PRESSURES GOLD AND STOCKS... Last Friday, I wrote about how a rising dollar was putting downward pressure on most commodity markets and gold in particular. I showed gold backing off from its 200-day moving average while the US Dollar Index was bouncing off its 200-day line. That inverse...   READ MORE 

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INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS ARE GAINING SOME GROUND ON TREASURIES -- BOUNCING DOLLAR KEEPS GOLD IN CHECK -- THE VIX HAS REACHED A POTENTIAL SUPPORT LEVEL WHICH MAY REMOVE BULLISH PROP...

INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS ARE GAINING SOME GROUND ON TREASURIES -- BOUNCING DOLLAR KEEPS GOLD IN CHECK -- THE VIX HAS REACHED A POTENTIAL SUPPORT LEVEL WHICH MAY REMOVE BULLISH PROP FROM STOCKS -- MARKET FAILS FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY TEST

CORPORATE BONDS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER... During the second half of 2008, Treasury Bonds were the top performing fixed income group as investors fled to safety. Other bond categories actually lost ground including corporate bonds. There are signs that some bond money is starting to flow into that other bond...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS REBOUND -- WARNING HITS WAL-MART -- RETAIL HOLDRS FAIL AT RESISTANCE -- WAL-MART WEIGHS ON CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR -- POCKETS OF STRENGTH AMONG RETAILERS - BONDS FIRM AH...

SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS REBOUND -- WARNING HITS WAL-MART -- RETAIL HOLDRS FAIL AT RESISTANCE -- WAL-MART WEIGHS ON CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR -- POCKETS OF STRENGTH AMONG RETAILERS - BONDS FIRM AHEAD OF EMPLOYMENT REPORT

STOCKS FIRM AFTER WEAK OPEN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The Wal-Mart warning reverberated throughout the stock market as the major indices opened lower on Thursday. Despite this lower open, trading quickly turned mixed and most of the major-index ETFs ended with small...   READ MORE 

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QQQQ GAPS DOWN AND STAYS DOWN -- SPY FORMS RISING WEDGE PATTERN -- FINANCIALS LAG BROADER MARKET -- JP MORGAN BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- WELL FARGO LEADS LOWER -- GOLD FALLS DESPITE WEAK D...

QQQQ GAPS DOWN AND STAYS DOWN -- SPY FORMS RISING WEDGE PATTERN -- FINANCIALS LAG BROADER MARKET -- JP MORGAN BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- WELL FARGO LEADS LOWER -- GOLD FALLS DESPITE WEAK DOLLAR -- OIL PLUNGES

QQQQ GAPS DOWN ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Led by weakness in the technology sector, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) gapped down and stayed down on Wednesday. Chart 1 shows daily candlesticks over the last four months. QQQQ has been working its way...   READ MORE 

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MCCLELLAN INDICATORS SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN MARKET BREADTH -- AIRLINES CONTINUE TO SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE JETBLUE AND CONTINENTAL -- BOUNCE IN T-BILL AND T-BOND RATES S...

MCCLELLAN INDICATORS SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN MARKET BREADTH -- AIRLINES CONTINUE TO SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE JETBLUE AND CONTINENTAL -- BOUNCE IN T-BILL AND T-BOND RATES SHOWS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE

MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR REACHES NEW HIGH... A couple of readers have asked what the implications are for the current high reading in the McClellan Oscillator. For those not familiar with it, this breadth indicator is based on the difference between the 19-day and 39-day exponential moving averages of net advances versus...   READ MORE 

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2009 GETS OFF TO A POSITIVE START -- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES RALLY WHILE BONDS AND THE DOLLAR PULL BACK -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS DO BETTER THAN STAPLES AT YEAREND-- AS JANUARY GOES...

2009 GETS OFF TO A POSITIVE START -- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES RALLY WHILE BONDS AND THE DOLLAR PULL BACK -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS DO BETTER THAN STAPLES AT YEAREND-- AS JANUARY GOES SO GOES THE YEAR

INTERMARKET TRENDS TURN MORE POSITIVE ... Chart 1 shows how the interaction between the four main asset classes unfolded during 2008 and how they're entering 2009. The two weakest assets were commodities and stocks. The two strongest were Treasury bonds and the dollar. During the first half of the...   READ MORE 

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QQQQ EXTENDS ITS POST-SURGE CONSOLIDATION -- XLF AND XLK FORM PENNANTS -- BONDS ARE THE BIG WINNERS FOR 2008 -- OIL IS THE BIG LOSER -- GOLD DIVERGES FROM OTHER COMMODITIES

QQQQ EXTENDS ITS POST-SURGE CONSOLIDATION -- XLF AND XLK FORM PENNANTS -- BONDS ARE THE BIG WINNERS FOR 2008 -- OIL IS THE BIG LOSER -- GOLD DIVERGES FROM OTHER COMMODITIES

QQQQ REMAINS IN CONSOLIDATION MODE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) continues to consolidate after the late-November surge. Chart 1 shows the ETF surging above 28 in late November and then consolidating the last four weeks (December). Most of...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER STAPLES AND HEALTHCARE ARE DEFENSIVE MARKET LEADERS -- BIG PHARMA LEADERS ARE BMY, SGP, AND PFE -- RETAIL STOCKS ARE DOING OKAY IN SPITE OF BAD NEWS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECT...

CONSUMER STAPLES AND HEALTHCARE ARE DEFENSIVE MARKET LEADERS -- BIG PHARMA LEADERS ARE BMY, SGP, AND PFE -- RETAIL STOCKS ARE DOING OKAY IN SPITE OF BAD NEWS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR IS HELPING LEAD MARKET HIGHER

HEALTHCARE AND STAPLES ARE DEFENSIVE LEADERS ... Arthur Hill and myself have noted several times this past year that defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare have been market leaders. That's normal during a bear market and recession. This time last year (December 28, 2007), I wrote a message...   READ MORE 

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HOPES FOR SANTA CLAUS RALLY FADE -- MIDEAST VIOLENCE WEAKENS DOLLAR AND BOOSTS GOLD AND OIL -- CHEMICALS TAKE BIGGEST HIT -- 13 AND 34 DAY EMAS ARE STILL NEGATIVE -- HOURLY BARS SHOW THREE...

HOPES FOR SANTA CLAUS RALLY FADE -- MIDEAST VIOLENCE WEAKENS DOLLAR AND BOOSTS GOLD AND OIL -- CHEMICALS TAKE BIGGEST HIT -- 13 AND 34 DAY EMAS ARE STILL NEGATIVE -- HOURLY BARS SHOW THREE-WEEK TRADING RANGE STILL INTACT

CHEMICALS FALL HARD ... Dow Chemical and Rohm and Haas fell especially hard today on news that funding for their merger was in trouble. The two chemical stocks lost -20% and -15% respectively. Chemicals as a group lost 5% and were the day's biggest losers. Charts 1 and 2...   READ MORE 

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DEFINING THE SANTA CLAUS RALLY, THE JANUARY EFFECT, AND THE JANUARY BAROMETER -- WHY THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ARE IMPORTANT FOR THE MARKET

DEFINING THE SANTA CLAUS RALLY, THE JANUARY EFFECT, AND THE JANUARY BAROMETER -- WHY THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ARE IMPORTANT FOR THE MARKET

SANTA CLAUS RALLY ... You've probably been hearing and reading a lot lately about the so-called "Santa Claus rally". The term is often used to describe any market bounce that takes place during December (which is usually one of the strongest months of the year). There is,...   READ MORE 

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VOLUME LEVELS SHRINK -- NEW 52-WEEK LOWS STILL OUTPACING NEW 52-WEEK HIGHS -- ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS FOR SPY - QQQQ STALLS AFTER SURGE -- FOUR PROMINENT TECH STOCKS -- HEALTHCARE SECTOR SHOWS...

VOLUME LEVELS SHRINK -- NEW 52-WEEK LOWS STILL OUTPACING NEW 52-WEEK HIGHS -- ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS FOR SPY - QQQQ STALLS AFTER SURGE -- FOUR PROMINENT TECH STOCKS -- HEALTHCARE SECTOR SHOWS LEADERSHIP

VOLUME THINS AS HOLIDAY MODE HITS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Volume levels on the NYSE and Nasdaq were below average on Monday and Tuesday. Low volume is typical for the period between Christmas and New Year's. In addition to these...   READ MORE 

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MARKET ENDS THE WEEK ON A FLAT NOTE -- BOUNCE IN DOLLAR CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN GOLD -- ENERGY AND MATERIAL STOCKS WEAKEN AS WELL -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 CLOSE BACK BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGES

MARKET ENDS THE WEEK ON A FLAT NOTE -- BOUNCE IN DOLLAR CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN GOLD -- ENERGY AND MATERIAL STOCKS WEAKEN AS WELL -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 CLOSE BACK BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGES

DOLLAR BOUNCE CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN GOLD ... After falling sharply all week, the Dollar Index bounced on Friday from potential chart support near its 200-day moving average. That caused profit-taking in gold at a time when bullion was testing its own 200-day average and a resistance line drawn over its July/...   READ MORE 

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% NYSE STOCKS OVER 50-DAY AVERAGE IMPROVES -- VIX INDEX BREAKS LATE NOVEMBER SUPPORT WHICH IS POSITIVE FOR STOCKS -- S&P 500 APPEARS HEADED UP TO EARLY NOVEMBER PEAK AT 1000

% NYSE STOCKS OVER 50-DAY AVERAGE IMPROVES -- VIX INDEX BREAKS LATE NOVEMBER SUPPORT WHICH IS POSITIVE FOR STOCKS -- S&P 500 APPEARS HEADED UP TO EARLY NOVEMBER PEAK AT 1000

MORE STOCKS TRADE OVER 50-DAY AVERAGES... Last Friday, I showed an indicator that measures the % NYSE stocks trading over their 50-day moving average. At the time, the reading was only 30%. With most stock indexes having cleared that resistance barrier this week, the number of stocks trading over their 50-day...   READ MORE 

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BONDS SURGE AGAIN -- ANALYZING THE LONG-TERM TREND FOR SPY -- DOW THEORY STAGES -- SECONDARY MOVEMENTS -- EXPECTED RETRACEMENTS AND RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR SPY

BONDS SURGE AGAIN -- ANALYZING THE LONG-TERM TREND FOR SPY -- DOW THEORY STAGES -- SECONDARY MOVEMENTS -- EXPECTED RETRACEMENTS AND RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR SPY

BONDS GO BALLISTIC... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The surge in bonds over the last seven weeks is truly staggering. The iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) is up some 30% from its November low. On Tuesday, the...   READ MORE 

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FED ANNOUNCES THAT IT'S READY TO START USING MORE UNCONVENTIONAL TOOLS TO STABILIZE THE ECONOMY -- PURCHASE OF BONDS IS ONE POSSIBILITY -- HOMEBUILDERS HAVE A STRONG DAY ON PROSPECTS FOR L...

FED ANNOUNCES THAT IT'S READY TO START USING MORE UNCONVENTIONAL TOOLS TO STABILIZE THE ECONOMY -- PURCHASE OF BONDS IS ONE POSSIBILITY -- HOMEBUILDERS HAVE A STRONG DAY ON PROSPECTS FOR LOWER MORTAGE RATES -- MARKET INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY LINES

FOCUS SHIFTS AWAY FROM SHORT-TERM RATES... The Fed cut its short-term Fed funds rate to "a target range" between zero and .25 today. More importantly, it announced that it was ready to take more aggressive steps to do whatever is required to get the economy moving again. That...   READ MORE 

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IN A DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO, TREASURY BOND PRICES RISE WHILE STOCKS AND COMMODITIES FALL -- FALLING RATES DON'T HELP MUCH IN THAT ENVIRONMENT -- INCREASE IN MONEY SUPPLY WEAKENS DOLLAR WHIC...

IN A DEFLATIONARY SCENARIO, TREASURY BOND PRICES RISE WHILE STOCKS AND COMMODITIES FALL -- FALLING RATES DON'T HELP MUCH IN THAT ENVIRONMENT -- INCREASE IN MONEY SUPPLY WEAKENS DOLLAR WHICH MAY BOOST GOLD

BONDS AND STOCKS DECOUPLE ... With fears of deflation growing, I thought it a good time to review some of my previous writing on that subject and to explain what happens in a deflationary environment. Most traditional intermarket relationships remain the same, but some don't. My 1991 book entitled...   READ MORE 

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MOST STOCKS ARE STILL TRADING BELOW 50- AND 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- A WEAKER VIX INDEX INCREASES ODDS FOR A DECENT DECEMBER -- AUTO BAILOUT HOPES HELP MARKET END HIGHER

MOST STOCKS ARE STILL TRADING BELOW 50- AND 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES -- A WEAKER VIX INDEX INCREASES ODDS FOR A DECENT DECEMBER -- AUTO BAILOUT HOPES HELP MARKET END HIGHER

% OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 50 MA... With all the recent focus on the major market indexes testing their 50-day moving averages, I thought it a good time to look at another indicator that measures the % of NYSE stocks that are trading above their 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows that indicator...   READ MORE 

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CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BOUNCE -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS FOREIGN ETFS -- BRAZIL IS GETTING A LIFT FROM STRONGER COMMODITIES -- S&P 500 FAILS ANOTHER TRY AT ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- FINANCIALS AND T...

CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BOUNCE -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS FOREIGN ETFS -- BRAZIL IS GETTING A LIFT FROM STRONGER COMMODITIES -- S&P 500 FAILS ANOTHER TRY AT ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- FINANCIALS AND TRANSPORTS ARE AMONG BIGGEST LOSERS

CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BOUNCE ... One of our readers asked recently if China was starting to show any new signs of relative strength. After this week's upturn, the answer is yes. With so many markets rallying up to test their 50-day averages, China iShares (FXI) have cleared that resistance...   READ MORE 

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SPY STALLS NEAR KEY RETRACEMENT -- GOLD FORGES ISLAND REVERSAL -- GOLD MINERS OUTPERFORMING BULLION -- NEWMONT AND BARRICK SURGE -- DOLLAR FALLS AS EURO BOUNCES - BONDS NOT WORRIED ABOUT I...

SPY STALLS NEAR KEY RETRACEMENT -- GOLD FORGES ISLAND REVERSAL -- GOLD MINERS OUTPERFORMING BULLION -- NEWMONT AND BARRICK SURGE -- DOLLAR FALLS AS EURO BOUNCES - BONDS NOT WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION

STOCKS FINISH POSITIVE IN CHOPPY TRADING ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Trading was rather choppy on Wednesday, but the major indices ended on a strong note and closed with modest gains on the day. In a nutshell, the...   READ MORE 

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A RALLY IN THE FACE OF BAD ECONOMIC NEWS IS A SIGN OF AN OVERSOLD MARKET -- MAJOR MARKET INDEXES TEST THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES

A RALLY IN THE FACE OF BAD ECONOMIC NEWS IS A SIGN OF AN OVERSOLD MARKET -- MAJOR MARKET INDEXES TEST THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES

DON'T TRADE OFF ECONOMIC NEWS ... We had a nice example last Friday of the stock market rallying on very bad economic news. Friday's employment report was the worst in more than thirty years. And yet, the stock market rallied after a lower opening. Media watchers were...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITY-RELATED STOCKS GET MARKET OFF TO A STRONG START-- A WEAKER DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES AS OIL BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT AT $40 -- FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS S...

COMMODITY-RELATED STOCKS GET MARKET OFF TO A STRONG START-- A WEAKER DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES AS OIL BOUNCES OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT AT $40 -- FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- STOCK INDEXES RALLY TOWARD 50-DAY LINES

DOLLAR DROPS TOWARD NOVEMBER LOW ... A strong bounce in foreign currencies, and a drop in the U.S. Dollar, is giving a nice boost to commodity markets and stocks tied to them. Basic material, gold, and energy stocks are helping lead the stock market higher. So are consumer discretionary and...   READ MORE 

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CRUDE OIL MAY FIND SUPPORT AT $40 -- FALLING COMMODITIES ARE HURTING CANADA -- A FALLING CANADIAN DOLLAR HAS HURT CANADIAN ISHARES -- AN UPDATE OF EMA MACD LINES ON DAILY, WEEKLY, AND MONT...

CRUDE OIL MAY FIND SUPPORT AT $40 -- FALLING COMMODITIES ARE HURTING CANADA -- A FALLING CANADIAN DOLLAR HAS HURT CANADIAN ISHARES -- AN UPDATE OF EMA MACD LINES ON DAILY, WEEKLY, AND MONTHLY CHARTS -- USING INTRA-DAY EMA SIGNALS FOR SHORT-TERM TRADING

$40 WAS THE PREVIOUS OIL CEILING ... With crude oil having fallen $100 from its summer peak, and trading back below $50, the big question is whether there exists some price level that could stem the oil plunge and act as a possible floor beneath that market. My best guess is...   READ MORE 

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LATE SURGE PUSHES DOW HIGHER -- FINANCIALS LEAD THE CHARGE -- 10% SWINGS FOR THE S&P 500 -- TELCOS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- VERIZON AND AT&T SURGE - LOW INTEREST RATES HELP HOME BUILDERS...

LATE SURGE PUSHES DOW HIGHER -- FINANCIALS LEAD THE CHARGE -- 10% SWINGS FOR THE S&P 500 -- TELCOS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- VERIZON AND AT&T SURGE - LOW INTEREST RATES HELP HOME BUILDERS -- PULTE AND DR HORTON SCORE BIG

FINANCIALS LEAD LATE SURGE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Stocks traded mixed most of the day, but a late surge lifted the major indices to their highest levels of the day and financials led the way. The Dow...   READ MORE 

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DON'T CONFUSE SHORT-TERM COMMENTARY WITH LONG-TERM ANALYSIS -- DAILY TREND SIGNALS ARE ONLY MINOR RIPPLES IN MAJOR TREND -- NBER ANNOUNCES THAT RECESSION STARTED A YEAR AGO -- WE DON'T HAV...

DON'T CONFUSE SHORT-TERM COMMENTARY WITH LONG-TERM ANALYSIS -- DAILY TREND SIGNALS ARE ONLY MINOR RIPPLES IN MAJOR TREND -- NBER ANNOUNCES THAT RECESSION STARTED A YEAR AGO -- WE DON'T HAVE THE LUXURY OF WAITING A YEAR TO MAKE DECISIONS

DON'T CONFUSE SHORT- AND LONG-TERM TRENDS... I get the impression from recent feedback that some of our readers aren't clear about terms like "short-term" and "long-term" in describing market trends. It's important not to confuse the two. So let'...   READ MORE 

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DEFLATION FEAR BOOSTS TREASURY BONDS BUT HURTS TIPS -- MARKET BOUNCE HAS BEEN ON LOW VOLUME -- FINANCIALS WEIGH ON MARKET -- WEEKLY AND MONTHLY MACD LINES STILL BEARISH -- TODAY'S 9% DROP...

DEFLATION FEAR BOOSTS TREASURY BONDS BUT HURTS TIPS -- MARKET BOUNCE HAS BEEN ON LOW VOLUME -- FINANCIALS WEIGH ON MARKET -- WEEKLY AND MONTHLY MACD LINES STILL BEARISH -- TODAY'S 9% DROP PUTS SHORT-TERM BOUNCE IN JEOPARDY

TIPS LAG BEHIND BOND RALLY ... Since commodities prices collapsed at midyear, fears of global deflation have grown. Longer-yielding Treasuries have been the principal beneficiary of that. Today's Fed comment that it may start buying longer-term Treasuries to push bond yields even lower have also given bond prices a...   READ MORE 

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POSITIVE DIVERGENCES AND PROXIMITY TO 2002 LOW INCREASE ODDS FOR SHORT-TERM BOTTOM -- SO DOES THE DOUBLE TOP IN THE VIX INDEX -- GOLD BREAKOUT HINTS AT OVERSOLD BOUNCE IN OTHER COMMODITIES

POSITIVE DIVERGENCES AND PROXIMITY TO 2002 LOW INCREASE ODDS FOR SHORT-TERM BOTTOM -- SO DOES THE DOUBLE TOP IN THE VIX INDEX -- GOLD BREAKOUT HINTS AT OVERSOLD BOUNCE IN OTHER COMMODITIES

SHORT-TERM TREND HAS IMPROVED ... I wrote on Monday that I thought the major market indexes could reach their early November peak and/or their 50-day moving averages on the current rebound. That's not such an ambitious forecast. Even so, a number of readers asked why I was even...   READ MORE 

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CITIGROUP BAILOUT HELPS PUSH MARKET INTO FIRST TWO-DAY GAIN IN A MONTH -- DOLLAR DROP BOOSTS COMMODITIES -- VIX AND JAPANESE YEN ALSO DROP AS GLOBAL STOCKS BOUNCE

CITIGROUP BAILOUT HELPS PUSH MARKET INTO FIRST TWO-DAY GAIN IN A MONTH -- DOLLAR DROP BOOSTS COMMODITIES -- VIX AND JAPANESE YEN ALSO DROP AS GLOBAL STOCKS BOUNCE

NYSE COMPOSITE JUMPS 7% ... Thanks largely to a government bailout of Citigroup that pushed that stock up nearly 60% today, financials gained 15% and helped ignite a 6% jump in market market indexes. It was the first two-day jump this month, and it occurred on decent volume and positive breadth...   READ MORE 

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CITIGROUP BAILOUT GIVES FINANCIALS AND STOCKS AN EARLY LIFT -- GLOBAL STOCKS RALLY -- COMMODITIES BOUNCE AS OVERBOUGHT DOLLAR PULLS BACK -- GOLD STOCKS ARE BREAKING OUT -- BONDS AND VIX AR...

CITIGROUP BAILOUT GIVES FINANCIALS AND STOCKS AN EARLY LIFT -- GLOBAL STOCKS RALLY -- COMMODITIES BOUNCE AS OVERBOUGHT DOLLAR PULLS BACK -- GOLD STOCKS ARE BREAKING OUT -- BONDS AND VIX ARE DROPPING AS STOCKS RISE

FINANCIALS LEAD RALLY ... A government rescue plan for Citigroup is pushing that stock 60% higher this morning and giving a big boost to the financial sector which is gaining more than 10% on the day. Financial buying has spilled over to the entire stock market which is trying to build...   READ MORE 

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GOLD BREAKS OUT TO NEW HIGH FOR THE MONTH -- BULLION HAS HELD UP BETTER THAN STOCKS AND OTHER COMMODITIES -- SOME OF THE GOLD BUYING MAY BE TIED TO FEAR OF DEFLATION -- TODAY'S HIGHER MARK...

GOLD BREAKS OUT TO NEW HIGH FOR THE MONTH -- BULLION HAS HELD UP BETTER THAN STOCKS AND OTHER COMMODITIES -- SOME OF THE GOLD BUYING MAY BE TIED TO FEAR OF DEFLATION -- TODAY'S HIGHER MARKET CLOSE KEEPS 2002 LOWS INTACT

GOLD HITS MONTHLY HIGH ... I wrote in yesterday's message that recent fears of deflation were giving a big boost to Treasury bonds. I also wrote that, in a deflationary environment, stocks and commodities usually fall together and become closely correlated. That's certainly been the case since...   READ MORE 

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S&P CLOSES BELOW 2002 LOW -- FINANCIALS AND DISCRETIONARY SECTORS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THOSE LOWS -- MONTHLY CHARTS OF OTHER SECTOR AND FOREIGN ETFS IN RELATION TO 2002 BOTTOM -- NO SIGN OF...

S&P CLOSES BELOW 2002 LOW -- FINANCIALS AND DISCRETIONARY SECTORS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN THOSE LOWS -- MONTHLY CHARTS OF OTHER SECTOR AND FOREIGN ETFS IN RELATION TO 2002 BOTTOM -- NO SIGN OF A BOTTOM IN CHINA

WHERE THOSE LOWS ARE LOCATED ... The 2002 bear market lows are under attack. Charts 1 and 2 show where those lows are located for the S&P 500 and the Dow. A 6.7% plunge in the S&P 500 put it below the 2002 intra-day low at...   READ MORE 

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DOW FALLS SHARPLY -- FINANCIALS LEAD SECTORS LOWER -- BONDS SURGE ON PPI AND CPI NEWS -- GOLD HITS RESISTANCE -- STEEP YIELD CURVE NOT HELPING -- RISK AVERSION RULES

DOW FALLS SHARPLY -- FINANCIALS LEAD SECTORS LOWER -- BONDS SURGE ON PPI AND CPI NEWS -- GOLD HITS RESISTANCE -- STEEP YIELD CURVE NOT HELPING -- RISK AVERSION RULES

ANOTHER WEDNESDAY WHACK ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Dow Industrials declined for the tenth Wednesday in a row on 19 November. This is becoming a habit with five of the last six Wednesdays sporting declines greater than...   READ MORE 

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BONDS RALLY AS STOCKS DROP -- T-BILL RATE STAYS NEAR ZERO -- RISING DOLLAR KEEPS COMMODITIES ON THE DEFENSIVE -- FINANCIALS HIT NEW LOWS ALONG WITH CHIPS AND REITS -- MAJOR INDEXES RETEST...

BONDS RALLY AS STOCKS DROP -- T-BILL RATE STAYS NEAR ZERO -- RISING DOLLAR KEEPS COMMODITIES ON THE DEFENSIVE -- FINANCIALS HIT NEW LOWS ALONG WITH CHIPS AND REITS -- MAJOR INDEXES RETEST LAST THURSDAY'S INTRA-DAY LOW

DOLLAR RISES AS COMMODITIES FALL ... Chart 1 show the Power Shares US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) moving up toward its October high. The ability of the dollar to continue its rise is keeping commodities under pressure. The streetTrack Gold Trust (GLD) in Chart 2 is almost a mirror image of...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS CONTINUE TO TEST BOTTOM OF TRADING RANGE -- NO UPSIDE FOLLOW-THROUGH YET FROM LAST THURSDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL

STOCKS CONTINUE TO TEST BOTTOM OF TRADING RANGE -- NO UPSIDE FOLLOW-THROUGH YET FROM LAST THURSDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL

NO FOLLOW-THROUGH TO KEY REVERSAL DAY ... Last Thursday's upside reversal day on strong volume raised hopes for a short-term rally attempt. Unfortunately, there's been no upside follow-through since then. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 losing ground over the last...   READ MORE 

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MARKET SCORES HIGH-VOLUME REVERSAL AFTER TOUCHING NEW LOW -- UPSIDE LEADERS ARE COMMODITY STOCKS, FINANCIALS, SMALL CAPS, AND REITS -- WHY RECENT TRIANGLE IN FINANCIAL SPDR MAY CARRY SOME...

MARKET SCORES HIGH-VOLUME REVERSAL AFTER TOUCHING NEW LOW -- UPSIDE LEADERS ARE COMMODITY STOCKS, FINANCIALS, SMALL CAPS, AND REITS -- WHY RECENT TRIANGLE IN FINANCIAL SPDR MAY CARRY SOME GOOD NEWS

S&P JUMPS 6% AFTER TOUCHING NEW LOW... After dropping briefly to the lowest level since March 2003, the S&P 500 achieved an upside reversal day (as did all of the other major indexes) that resulted in a 6% gain. It also did that on the highest...   READ MORE 

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BROAD DECLINE ROCKS WALL STREET -- DOW BREAKS TRIANGLE -- RETAILERS DRAG XLY AND XRT LOWER -- DOLLAR STORES SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- FINANCIAL STOCKS NOT IMPRESSED WITH PAULSON -- TBILLS...

BROAD DECLINE ROCKS WALL STREET -- DOW BREAKS TRIANGLE -- RETAILERS DRAG XLY AND XRT LOWER -- DOLLAR STORES SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- FINANCIAL STOCKS NOT IMPRESSED WITH PAULSON -- TBILLS REFLECT RISK AVERSION

ANOTHER DOWN WEDNESDAY ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor What is it with Wednesdays? The Dow Industrials declined for the ninth Wednesday in a row. Of these nine down Wednesdays, the Dow was down more than 2% six times....   READ MORE