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A COMPARISON OF ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE CYCLICAL STOCKS TO CONSUMER STAPLES TELLS US A LOT ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE MARKET AND ECONOMY -- THE TREND IS STILL WEAK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CYCLICAL STOCKS CONTINUE TO UNDERFORM ... One of the easiest ways to measure the strength or weakness of the stock market and economy is to compare the relative performance of economically-sensitive stocks (cyclicals) to economically-resistant stocks. The logic is very simple. In an up market (and a rising economy), cyclical stocks...
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UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS CONFIRM WHAT MARKETS ALREADY KNEW -- SECTOR ROTATIONS REMAIN NEGATIVE -- WEAKNESS IN RETAILERS, HOMEBUILDERS, REITS , AND TECHNOLOGY ISN'T ENCOURAGING -- DAILY EMA LINES STILL NEGATIVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ECONOMISTS ARE ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW... Friday's report that the unemployment rate jumped to a fourteen year high of 6.5% has finally convinced the economic community that the U.S. economy is in a recession and a deep one at that. As a result, we'...
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13-34 WEEK EMA COMBINATION HAS GOOD THIRTY YEAR TRACK RECORD AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF A BOTTOM -- ANOTHER LOOK AT ELLIOTT WAVES -- S&P 500 STAYS IN SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE WHILE FINANCIALS FORM BEARISH TRIANGLE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEEKLY EMA PERFORMANCE ... I wrote recently about the strong track record of the 13 and 34 week exponential moving average (EMA) lines in spotting important market turns. One of our readers asked how that weekly combination did over the past thirty years. Here's a look. I'm...
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BROAD DECLINE ROCKS WALL STREET -- FINANCIALS LEAD THE WAY LOWER -- BEAR MAREKT RALLY STILL POSSIBLE -- 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE MARKS RESISTANCE -- USING RETRACEMENTS FOR TARGETS -- RSI IN A LONG-TERM DOWNTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BROAD SELLING PRESSURE HITS WALL STREET ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
After moving sharply higher the last six days, the market took a big breather with a sharp decline on Wednesday. Selling pressure started with a gap down...
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SHORT-TERM MARKET IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES AS LENDING RATES AND VIX DROP -- DAILY EMA LINES STRENGTHEN, BUT WEEKLY AND MONTHLIES STILL POINT DOWN -- COMMODITIES BOUNCE WITH STOCKS AS DOLLAR AND YEN PULL BACK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LIBOR AND VIX CONTINUE TO DROP ... Short-term market conditions continue to improve. One reflection of that is the continuing drop in the LIBOR lending rate (London Interbank Offered Rate). Chart 1 shows the three-month LIBOR dropping another 15 basis points today to 2.71% which is the lowest level since...
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LIBOR FALLS TO SIX-WEEK LOW AND HELPS TO STEADY STOCKS -- STEEPER YIELD CURVE MAY ENCOURAGE BANKS TO LEND -- THE MARKET WILL BOTTOM BEFORE THE ECONOMY -- WEEKLY EMA LINES ARE STILL DOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LIBOR DROP ENCOURAGES MARKETS ... One of the recent positive trends is the continuing drop in the three-month London Interbank Overnight Lending Rate (LIBOR). That rate determines what banks charge each other for loans. During the credit freeze that started in mid-September, the LIBOR jumped from 2.8% to 4.8%...
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MODEST RALLY ATTEMPT CONTINUES BUT ON LOW VOLUME -- MARKET MAY SIMPLY BE ENTERING A SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE FOR BALANCE OF YEAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
VOLUME REMAINS LIGHT ... In a legitimate upturn, one of the first things we look for is rising prices and rising volume. We've seen a modest price upturn over the past week, but very little volume to go along with it. Today's price bounce came on lower...
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RETAILERS OVERSOLD -- MARKET REMAINS NERVOUS -- DIA HITS RESISTANCE - FINANCIALS LEAD LOWER -- SHORT-TERM RATES FALL -- DOLLAR INDEX BACKS OFF OVERBOUGHT LEVELS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RETAILERS FEELING THE PINCH... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
As expected the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 0.5% and this key rate now stands at 1%. In its policy statement, the Fed noted a decline...
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BOUNCE IN FOREIGN MARKETS GIVES US STOCKS A BOOST -- OVERSOLD CONDITION AND DROP IN VOLATILITY ALSO SUGGEST THE LIKELY START OF A BEAR MARKET BOUNCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OVERSOLD FOREIGN MARKETS BOUNCE ... Over the past week, the U.S. market has held relatively firm while foreign shares have mostly fallen to new lows. Today's rebound in foreign shares is finally giving a boost to stocks in the U.S. Charts 1 and 2 show the EAFE...
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S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 2002-2003 LOW WHICH WOULD BE DROP OF 50% -- WHY THE CURRENT MARKET TRIANGLE CARRIES GOOD AND BAD NEWS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
50% DROP WOULD MATCH 2000-2002 LOSS ... The monthly bars in Chart 1 put the last eight years of market action in good perspective. And the chart is pretty orderly. From its 2000 peak to its late 2002 bottom, the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value. From that...
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THE FED MAY NEED TO EMPLOY SOME CHARTISTS -- WARNING SIGNS OF HOUSING PROBLEMS WERE CLEARLY VISIBLE ON CHARTS -- WHY A RISING YEN HAS BEEN BAD FOR GLOBAL STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
AN ARMY OF PHDS DIDN'T SEE ANY PROBLEMS ... It was quite interesting listening to Mr Greenspan explain to Congress that the army of PHDs employed by the Fed (which he claimed were the best in the world) didn't see any problems brewing in the housing market....
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STOCKS HIT WITH BROAD DECLINE -- LACK OF FOLLOW THROUGH STYMIES THE BULLS -- BEARISH MOMENTUM FOR DIA AND QQQQ -- PERFCHARTS FAVOR DEFENSIVE SECTORS -- EURO REACTS TO POTENTIAL RATE CUTS -- GOLD FOLLOWS EURO
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BROAD SELLING HITS WALL STREET... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
Stocks were hammered on Wednesday with across the board selling pressure. All nine sectors were down sharply on the day. All 30 Dow components were down and breadth...
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MAJOR AVERAGES APPEAR TO BE FORMING SHORT-TERM TRIANGLES -- THAT REDUCES THE ODDS THAT A LOW HAS BEEN SEEN AND SUGGESTS ONE MORE MOVE INTO NEW LOWS MAY BE NEEDED
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONVERGING TRENDLINES ... One of our readers pointed out that the short-term pattern of the last eight trading days has a triangular look. A "triangle" is a trading pattern that is characterized by two converging trendlines. I've applied them to hourly bars in the following charts. The...
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HIGH-YIELDING FOREIGN CURRENCIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE -- THE RISING DOLLAR KEEPS COMMODITIES UNDER PRESSURE -- ALUMINUM AND COPPER SUFFER FROM GLOBAL WEAKNESS -- DOLLAR AND YEN ARE ONLY TWO RISING CURRENCES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FOREIGN WEAKNESS HURTS CURRENCIES ... The Fed started lowering interest rates more than a year ago to stem the financial crisis in the U.S. Foreign central banks didn't follow along, while some even raised rates. With foreign economies weakening along with the US, the belief is that foreign...
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RISE IN 3-MONTH T-BILL RATE AND DROP IN LIBOR SUGGEST CREDIT FREEZE IS THAWING -- THAT INCREASES THE ODDS FOR A STOCK MARKET BOUNCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
T-BILLS SHOW MORE CONFIDENCE ... One of the side-effects of the market meltdown since early September has been the sharp drop in the 3-month T-bill rate. Chart 1 shows the 3-month rate falling to zero over the last month as scared investors flocked to the safety of T-bills. [T-bill rates fall...
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FALLING COMMODITIES ARE SIGN OF RECESSION -- SO ARE FALLING MATERIAL AND ENERGY STOCKS -- IT'S IMPORTANT THAT MARKET STAY ABOVE 2002 LOW -- WATCHING BANDS FOR OVERHEAD RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITES ARE LAST ASSET TO PEAK... A number of readers have asked if I thought the U.S. was in a recession or heading into one. Others have asked if I thought this recession would be worse than most. Although I'm not an economist, it is possible to...
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ECONOMIC REPORTS CLOBBER STOCKS -- SPY FILLS MONDAY'S GAP -- DOW REMAINS OVERSOLD -- RETAILERS TAKE A DIVE -- OIL HITS NEW LOW -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX GAINS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS HIT WITH TRIPLE WHAMMY ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
Bailout hopes gave way to economic realities as stocks were broadsided with selling pressure on Wednesday. First, the Commerce Department reported a sharp decline (1.2%) in September...
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MASSIVE GLOBAL SUPPORT FOR BANKS PRODUCES STRONG STOCK RALLY -- TODAY'S GAINS REPRESENT THE BEST DAY SINCE THE CRISIS STARTED
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL STOCKS SCORE BIG GAINS ... A huge international rescue plan for banks has finally ingited a strong global stock rally. European gains average 10%. The same is true in Hong Kong. The U.S. market is just following along. This is clearly the best market day since the crisis started...
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ORIGINAL VOLATILITY INDEX HASN'T REACH 1987 PEAK -- DOLLAR IS RISING BECAUSE FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE FALLING -- SCARED MONEY FAVORS BILLS OVER BONDS -- GOLD SELLS OFF ON HEAVY VOLUME -- OIL HITS 12-MONTH LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE ON VOLATILITY INDEX ... There seems to be a lot of confusion regarding the unusually high readings in the VIX. This may help. The CBOE Volatility (VIX) is currently trading at 75 which is the highest level in its history. That history, however, doesn't extend back to 1987....
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THE NEXT MAJOR SUPPORT LEVELS GO BACK TO THE 2002-2003 LOWS -- WATCH BOLLINGER BAND WIDTH FOR SIGNS OF A REBOUND -- MARKET STILL DROPPING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NEXT MAJOR SUPPORT ... One of our readers suggested that we get back to basics and simply point out where the next major support levels are located. To do that we have to rely on monthly price charts. In a major bear market, the best way to look for potential support...
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STOCKS BALK AT COORDINATED RATE CUTS -- DOW REMAINS OVERSOLD -- GOLD BENEFITS AS SAFE HAVEN -- GOLD MINERS ETF SURGES -- BONDS FALL AFTER BIG RATE CUT -- WATCH TBILL RATES FOR CREDIT CRISIS CLUES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL RATE CUTS FAIL TO INSPIRE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
The Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and other central banks cut interest rates in an effort to thwart the global financial crisis....
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GLOBAL MARKETS PLUNGE ON CREDIT FEARS -- COMMODITIES ALSO FALL ALONG WITH THE EURO -- THE ONLY WINNERS WERE BONDS, THE DOLLAR, GOLD, AND THE YEN -- STOCKS MAKE BACK HALF OF DAY'S LOSSES IN THE AFTERNOON
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS, GOLD, THE DOLLAR, AND YEN BENEFIT... First the good news. With global stocks and commodities falling sharply today, there were only a few markets that actually made money. Treasury bonds and notes rose as yields tumbled (Chart 1). The U.S. Dollar Index also gained ground as foreign currencies...
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WHY OCTOBER ISN'T A GOOD TIME TO SELL -- SO MANY BOTTOMS HAVE FORMED DURING OCTOBER THAT IT'S KNOWN AS A BEAR KILLER -- MARKET HITS NEW LOW TODAY AS HOUSE PASSES BAILOUT PLAN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SELLING SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE MONTHS AGO... Over the past couple of weeks, I've suggested taking no new action in the stock market. Part of my reasoning is that we've been recommending a bearish strategy for the past year and see no reason to change that....
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MORE ON MOVING AVERAGES -- DAILY AND WEEKLY EMAS REMAIN NEGATIVE -- MONTHLY EMAS TURN NEGATIVE FOR FIRST TIME IN SEVEN YEARS -- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES HAVE ANOTHER BAD DAY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMOOTHING OUT PRICE TRENDS ... Arthur Hill wrote yesterday how moving average trends smooth out the market's intra-day swings and help us keep our eye on the over-riding trend which is still down. One of the nice things about moving averages is that they remove emotion from the decision-making...
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RAILS AND TRUCKERS PULL TRANSPORTS SHARPLY LOWER -- FALLING EURO HURTS COMMODITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRANSPORTS FALL TO NINE-MONTH LOW... Up until this week, transportation stocks had held up much better than the rest of the market. Not anymore. Today's plunge in the Dow Transports has pushed that barometer below its July low to the lowest level since January. Its relative strength line,...
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FINANCIALS SURGE AHEAD OF SENATE VOTE -- BIG BANKS TAKE THE LEAD -- USING MOVING AVERAGES TO LOWER THE NOISE -- DOWN SWING RESISTANCE FOR SPY -- RETRACEMENT TARGETS FOR SPY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIAL SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
The market was mixed on Wednesday as investors waited for the Senate's vote on the bailout package. Despite overall indecisiveness, the Financials SPDR (XLF) showed strength...
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EURO HAS BIGGEST DROP IN ITS HISTORY -- JUMP IN 3-MONTH T-BILL RATES SHOWS LESS FEAR -- MARKET REGAINS HALF OF YESTERDAY'S DROP -- FATE OF FINANCIALS MAY REST WITH CONGRESS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EURO PLUNGES ON EUROPEAN BAILOUTS ... I've mentioned several times that the recent rebound in the U.S. Dollar was mainly the result of falling foreign currencies, especially the Euro. Never was that more true than today. The Euro's -2.5% plunge against the dollar was the...
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MARKET PLUNGES ON FAILURE TO PASS RESCUE PLAN -- BONDS AND GOLD RISE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- PLUNGE IN EUROPEAN CURRENCIES PUSHES DOLLAR HIGHER -- MOST COMMODITIES FALL SHARPLY -- VIX SPIKES TO HISTORIC HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS, GOLD, AND DOLLAR RISE ... Even before this afternoon's announcement that Congress rejected the massive rescue plan, stock prices were trading sharply lower. That announcement made a bad day even worse and pushed stocks into one of the biggest drops in recent memory. While all market sectors and...
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MARKETS WAIT ON RESCUE PLAN -- S&P 500 NEEDS TO CLEAR SEPTEMBER PEAK TO CONFIRM A BOTTOM -- WATCHING THE VIX FOR MARKET CLUES -- HOUSING STOCKS SHOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE YEARS -- SIT TIGHT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKETS ARE HOSTAGE TO GOVERNMENT ACTION... I can't ever remember a time when financial markets were so dependent on government action. Like everyone else, I watched with great interest the Congressional negotiations being played out behind closed doors (and in front of TV cameras). The consensus view is...
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BANKS LEAD STOCK RALLY ON HOPE RESCUE PLAN IS NEAR PASSAGE -- BONDS AND GOLD ARE ON THE DEFENSIVE -- VIX WEAKENS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS ATTEMPT RALLY ... It was exactly a week ago that the stock market started to rally on news that a massive government rescue plan was in the works. That led to two strong updays at last week's end on huge volume. The fact that major stock indexes scored...
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STOCKS DRIFT AS MARKET WAITS -- DIA REMAINS IN A DOWNTREND -- IWM TURNS ERRATIC AT RESISTANCE -- HEALTHCARE SPDR FORMS HARAMI AT SUPPORT -- RESISTANCE REPULSES RETAIL ETFS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS DRIFT LOWER ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
The stock market lacked direction today as stocks drifted most of the day. It seems that the market is waiting on something. Hmm, what could it be? With a huge...
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BONDS COULD BE A CASUALTY OF BAILOUT PLAN -- STOCKS SELL OFF AGAIN ON LIGHT VOLUME
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE SUPPLY ISN'T GOOD FOR BONDS... One of the side-effects of the massive government bailout plan is that it is going to have to sell a lot of bonds to raise that money. That means the supply of Treasury bonds is going to increase. When the supply of...
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DOLLAR PULLBACK BOOSTS COMMODITY-RELATED ASSETS -- GOLD AND ENERGY PRICES ARE BOUNCING ALONG WITH RELATED SHARES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR PULLS BACK FROM RESISTANCE... On September 12, I wrote about how an overbought U.S. dollar was up against chart resistance. Chart 1 is an updated version of that earlier chart. It shows the U.S. Dollar Index backing off from chart resistance at 80 which was the low...
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GLOBAL STOCKS SOAR ON MASSIVE RESCUE PLAN AND BAN ON SHORT SELLERS -- FINANCIALS ARE BIGGEST GAINERS -- SAFE HAVENS LIKE GOLD, BONDS, AND YEN TUMBLE -- SMALL CAP INDEX IS CHALLENGING ITS SUMMER HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS SURGE ... A massive government rescue plan and a temporary ban on short selling has boosted the Financials Sector SPDR by nearly 12% (Chart 1). It's the day's strongest sector on a day when all sectors are in the black. Brokers (not shown) are up 12%...
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SPIKING VIX INCREASES ODDS FOR FOURTH QUARTER BOUNCE -- WHY THIS ISN'T A GOOD TIME TO TURN TOO BEARISH -- MARKET MAY BE IN CAPITULATION PHASE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
VIX TESTS 2008 HIGHS ... I wrote earlier in the week that a rising CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index carries both good and bad news. The bad news is that a rising VIX is associated with falling stock prices. The good news is that a high VIX reading is necessary for any...
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BROAD SELLING HITS WALL STREET -- VOLUME SURGES -- NEW LOWS EXPAND ON NYSE -- GOLD AND SILVER SURGE IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX RETREATS -- OIL REBOUNDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS GET WALLOPED AGAIN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
Another broad sell-off took hold on Wall Street Wednesday. All major index ETFs were down sharply with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) losing over 5% and the S&...
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FED REVERSAL ON POSSIBLE LOAN TO AIG GIVES MARKET LATE BOOST ON HEAVY VOLUME -- S&P 500 RETRACES 50% OF 2002-2007 BULL RUN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED MAY HELP AIG... The Fed's made two important decisions. One was to leave interest rates unchanged. The other was a late Bloomberg report that the Fed is considering a "loan package" to AIG. That report may have contributed to the late market rebound. Financials were...
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FINANCIAL TURMOIL ROCKS MARKET -- S&P 500 UNDERCUTS JULY LOW -- BONDS SURGE, COMMODITIES FALL, YEN BOUNCES -- VIX SPIKES TO SIX-MONTH HIGH -- SEPTEMBER IS LIVING UP TO ITS BAD REPUTATION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITIES DROP AS YEN AND BONDS JUMP ... Most attention today was focused on the meltdown in financial stocks and big drops in global stock markets. A lot of action, however, also took place in other financial markets. Crude oil prices tumbled more than $5.00 to crack psychological support near...
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LEHMAN BANCRUPTCY AND OTHER FINANCIAL PROBLEMS LEAD TO SHARP GLOBAL SELLOFF -- BONDS RALLY AS COMMODITIES FALL -- HUGE SPIKE IN PUT/CALL RATIO MAY CARRY SOME GOOD NEWS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BROKERS ARE BEING HIT HARD ... A combination of unprecented weekend financial events have put global stocks under heavy pressure. Lehman filing for bankruptcy, Merrill being sold to Bank of America, and AIG scrambling to stay afloat have created a financial storm in early trading. Bonds are the only asset class...
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DON'T CONFUSE SHORT-TERM BOUNCES WITH A MARKET BOTTOM -- RETAIL RALLY RUNS INTO SERIOUS RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR PULLBACK COULD PRODUCE SHORT-TERM ENERGY BOUNCE -- CONSUMER STAPLES CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SHORT VERSUS LONG-TERM COMMENTARY... Some of our readers have expressed confusion about the tone of some recent messages. They feel we sound bullish one day and bearish the next. I think those readers are confusing short-term comments with our long-term view. On Monday, for example, I wrote about the strong...
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