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MARKET DOWNTREND APPEARS TO BE RESUMING -- NEXT DOWNSIDE S&P TARGET IS LOW FORMED DURING SUMMER OF 2006 -- TIPS LEAD STRONG BOND RALLY -- YEN ETF OFFERS PROFIT PROTECTION AGAINST A FALLING DOLLAR AND FALLING STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKET DROPS ON EXPANDING VOLUME ... I suggested on Thursday that this was a logical spot for the market rally to fail and fail it did. The fact that Friday's big selloff came on expanding volume (and bad market breadth) just added to the degree of short-term damage done....
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JAPANESE YEN IS EMERGING AS ONE OF WORLD'S STRONGEST CURRENCIES -- THAT SUGGESTS FURTHER UNWINDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AND IS HURTING GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
YEN MAY BE NEARING HUGE BULLISH BREAKOUT... One of the day's headlines is the Japanese yen hitting a new three-year high against the U.S. Dollar. Last summer, I started reporting on the emerging new uptrend in the Japanese currency. That uptrend may be about to get a...
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WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS BOOSTS BONDS BUT SINKS STOCKS -- BOND/STOCK RATIO STILL FAVORS BONDS -- THE DOLLAR FALLS TO A RECORD LOW AS COMMODITIES HIT RECORD HIGH -- CONTINUED FED EASING SUGGESTS THOSE TWO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS FALL AS COMMODITIES RISE ... More bad news on the economy triggered a reasonably predictable intermarket script. Bond prices jumped sharply as yields fell. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield failing a test of a resistance line drawn over its October/December highs. While that was good for...
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WEAK GDP FIGURE BOOSTS BONDS AND SINKS STOCKS -- DROP IN RATES PUSHES DOLLAR TO RECORD LOW AND COMMODITIES TO RECORD HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS FAVORS BONDS OVER STOCKS... On Tuesday, I wrote about the fact that bonds were pulling back to test their 50-day "support" line, while the Dow and S&P 500 were bouncing toward their 50-day "resistance" line. I also suggested that the bond/...
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TECHS LAGGING THE BROADER MARKET -- DOW STALLS AT RESISTANCE -- THREE DOW COMPONENTS HIT RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR GETS WHACKED AGAIN -- YEN AND CANADIAN DOLLAR SURGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ LAGS NYSE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
Investor appetite for risk remains weak as the Nasdaq continues to lag the NY Composite. With stricter listing requirements on the NYSE, the Nasdaq attracts more speculative (riskier) issues. This...
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NASDAQ TESTS TOP OF TRIANGLE -- DOW AND S&P 500 TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ TESTS TOP OF TRIANGLE... I've received a lot of questions about the bearish triangle I recently described in the Nasdaq Composite Index. As you can see in Chart 1, it hasn't been resolved one way or the other. After surviving a test of its lower...
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DOLLAR TRIANGLE LOOKS READY TO BE RESOLVED ON DOWNSIDE -- EURO HITS NEW RECORD TODAY AGAINST DOLLAR -- GOLD STOCKS APPEAR READY TO RESUME THEIR BULL TREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR TRIANGLE LOOKS BEARISH ... A few weeks back I wrote that the U.S. Dollar Index could be on the verge of an intermediate-term rebound. That's no longer the case. The daily bars in Chart 1 show that the USD has been forming a triangle since its December...
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MORE ON YIELD CURVE'S IMPACT ON THE DOLLAR, COMMODITIES, BONDS, AND STOCKS -- BONDS PULLBACK WHILE STOCKS TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WHY A STEEPENING YIELD CURVE HURTS THE DOLLAR AND HELPS COMMODITIES... One of our readers asked me to explain my statement that a steepening yield curve hurts the dollar. Chart 1 shows the track record since 1998. The red line is a ratio of the the 10-Year T-Note Yield to...
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NATURAL GAS BREAKS OUT -- NAT GAS STOCKS STILL LEAD ENERGY PATCH -- EOG HITS NEW RECORD -- APACHE MAY BE NEXT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NATURAL GAS BREAKS OUT... I've written several articles lately about natural gas stocks taking over leadership in the energy patch. That's because the price of natural gas is starting to play catch-up with the rest of the energy complex. Last Wednesday, Arthur Hill wrote that the...
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BOND/STOCK RATIO IS STILL IN UPTREND -- THE LONG BOND, HOWEVER, IS STARTING TO LAG BEHIND SHORTER MATURITIES AS INFLATION RISES AND YIELD CURVE STEEPENS -- TIPS OFFER A WAY TO SHORTEN BOND MATURITY WHILE OFFERING INFLATION PROTECTION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS ARE STILL ACTING BETTER THAN STOCKS... Last Friday I wrote about the different bond ETFs available to investors. I finished up with a few conclusions. One was that bonds are still a preferred investment over stocks. That's usually the case in the early stages of an economic...
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TODAY'S DROP KEEPS MARKET IN BEARISH CONSOLIDATION PHASE -- THE NASDAQ APPEARS READY TO RESOLVE BEARISH TRIANGLE TO THE DOWNSIDE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKET STILL IN BEARISH TRIANGLE... Today's market drop has kept the market in what appears to be a bearish consolidation pattern. The first three daily charts show the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite still trading well below their 50-day averages and their early...
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INFLATION HEATS UP -- COMMODITY ETFS ARE STRONG ACROSS THE BOARD -- GOLD BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- ANOTHER LOOK AT TIPS -- TLT HITS SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITY ETFS CONFIRM CPI REPORT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
Before the bell this morning, the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose .4% in January. Core-CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose .3%. Both...
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ENERGY STOCKS RALLY AS CRUDE HITS $100 -- DEVON AND EOG JOIN NATURAL GAS LEADERS -- GOLD STOCKS ARE TRIANGULATING IN UPTREND -- COMMODITIES HAVE ANOTHER BIG DAY -- STOCK RALLY FADES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE NATURAL GAS BREAKOUTS ... Last Tuesday, I wrote about new energy leadership coming from natural gas stocks. I showed two natural gas stocks that were hitting new record highs, including Chesapeake and XTO Energy. Both are hitting new records again today. Here are a couple more natural gas stocks to...
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YIELD CURVE CONTINUES TO STEEPEN -- SELLING IN LONG BOND ETF SUGGESTS SHORTER MATURITIES -- TIPS OFFER MORE INFLATION PROTECTION -- BOND/STOCK RATIO NOW FAVORS BONDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STEEPENING YIELD CURVE IMPLIES ECONOMIC WEAKENING ... I wrote an article on the steepening yield curve on January 31 and have been asked to revisit the question of bonds and bond yields. One question I received was how to create Chart 1. The "yield spread" usually refers to the...
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HOME DEPOT LEADS RETAIL GROUP LOWER -- YESTERDAY'S RETAIL LED BOUNCE SHOWS NO FOLLOW THROUGH -- MARKET APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING IN DOWNTREND -- WAVE PATTERNS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE MORE DOWNLEG
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HOME DEPOT LEADS RETAIL LOSSES ... A government report on retail spending sent that group higher yesterday. Arthur Hill pointed out, however, that the retail group is still in a downtrend. He also showed that while Wal Mart (the largest stock in the retail group) was doing much better than the...
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BROAD MARKET UP -- SECTORS MIXED -- NASDAQ AND RUSSELL 2000 LEAD THE WAY -- RETAIL HOLDRS BOUNCE -- WAL-MART CHARGES TO RESISTANCE -- CLARIFYING PERFCHART SETTINGS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKET RALLIES WITH MIXED PARTICIPATION... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
The major indices moved higher on Wednesday, but participation was mixed. A run through the AMEX Select Sector SPDRs on the Market Summary page shows four sectors gaining...
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BUFFETT OFFER BUOYS FINANCIAL STOCKS -- NATURAL GAS STOCKS ARE NEW ENERGY LEADERS -- NAT GAS LEADERS ARE XTO, CHESAPEAKE, AND APACHE -- A COMPARISON OF COMMODITIES AND THE DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
THIS IS CORRECT YEN CHART ... In last Friday's Market Message, I tried to show that the Japanese Yen was starting to rally against all of the world's major currencies (in addition to the U.S. Dollar). One of our sharp-eyed readers correctly pointed out that Chart...
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RISING US DOLLAR PROFUND AND PROSHARES US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND ARE AVAILABLE -- RYDEX OFFERS EIGHT FOREIGN CURRENCY ETFS -- THE YEN HAS GONE FROM WORLD'S WEAKEST CURRENCY TO ONE OF THE STRONGEST
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING DOLLAR FUNDS... Following my article on the possibility of a dollar bottom yesterday, I received a number of questions on how to play a dollar rally. One simple way is to buy the Rising US Dollar ProFund (RDPIX). This mutual fund is designed to match the performance of the...
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EURO FALLS ON HINT ECB MAY BE READY TO LOWER RATES -- THAT SHOULD HELP THE DOLLAR WHICH IS IN A MAJOR OVERSOLD CONDITION -- A DOLLAR RALLY WOULD HELP MAKE US STOCKS A BETTER VALUE THAN FOREIGN STOCKS -- COMMODITIES MAY ALSO PULL BACK IN A DOLLAR RALLY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EURO FALLS ON ECB WILLINGNESS TO LOWER RATES ... My article on Tuesday about the likelihood that the ECB would have to start lowering rates pretty soon elicited a lot of questions about the implications of such a move. I'll try to address some of them here. Two rate...
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STOCKS REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE -- CONSUMER STAPLES, UTILITIES AND HEALTHCARE SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- QQQQ LAGS THE BROADER MARKET -- THE TECH TROIKA -- SLOWING ECONOMY MAY WEIGH ON CRUDE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHINE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
Taking their cue from the New York Giants, the defensive sectors are holding their ground. The first image shows the Amex Select Sector SPDRs within the Market Summary page. Eight...
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FOREIGN STOCKS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN THE U.S. -- WHEN FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKERS START LOWERING RATES, FOREIGN STOCKS WILL LOSE DOLLAR TAILWIND -- GLOBAL STOCK DOWNTURN APPEARS TO BE RESUMING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SAME BEAR SIGNALS APPLY TO FOREIGN STOCKS... One of our readers asked if the same bearish technical indicators that I've been showing for the U.S. market apply to foreign markets. The answer is "yes". Chart 1, for example, shows a monthly MACD signal on the...
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DAILY AND WEEKLY 13 AND 34 EMAS REMAIN NEGATIVE -- MONTHLY EMA SPREAD WEAKENS BY MOST IN FIVE YEARS -- WILSHIRE 5000 GIVES SAME SIGNALS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CHECK YOUR AVERAGES ... One of our readers asked for an update on the 13 and 34 "weekly" EMAs (exponentially smoothed moving averages), which I've written about several times in the past as an excellent indicator of market trend. He asked why the EMAs for some of...
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BEAR MARKET BOUNCE APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED -- MONEY FLOWS INTO BONDS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RALLY ATTEMPT APPEARS TO BE FAILING ... Last week we wrote about the likelihood of the bear market rally running into new selling near the November lows just above 1400 in the S&P 500. That number translates into 12750 in the Dow (Chart 2). The downturn over the past...
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JANUARY BAROMETER GIVES BEARISH WARNING -- MONTHLY INDICATORS STILL NEGATIVE -- WEEKLIES SHOW OVERSOLD MARKET IN BEAR MARKET BOUNCE -- NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX IS DEEPLY OVERSOLD, BUT NOWHERE NEAR A BULL MARKET SIGNAL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
JANUARY BAROMETER PREDICTS BAD YEAR ... I haven't heard anyone in the media talking about the January Barometer, which is based on the view that "as January goes, so goes the year". That's probably because they only talk about it when the market has a...
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FINANCIALS BENEFIT FROM A STEEPER YIELD CURVE AFTER FED EASING -- HOMEBUILDERS ATTRACT NEW BUYING AND ARE DAY'S STRONGEST GROUP -- SECTOR ROTATION MODEL NOW FAVORS FINANCIALS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
JANUARY BRINGS MONEY BACK INTO FINANCIALS... Although January was a bad month for the market, there were some sector rotations going on beneath the surface. To put things into perspective, Chart 1 plots two leaders (energy and technology) and two laggards (financial and consumer discretionary stocks) against the S&...
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STOCKS VERSUS RATE CUTS -- INTRADAY VOLATILTY REMAINS HIGH -- DOLLARS SINKS WITH FED CUT -- GOLD AND SILVER SHINE -- FINANCE ETFS HIT RESISTANCE ZONES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED CUTS AGAIN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
The Fed cut the Fed funds rate 0.5% to 3% this afternoon. This is the second cut in the last nine days and the sixth rate cut since August...
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WORLD GIVES UP ON THEORY OF GLOBAL DECOUPLING -- NOW THEY'RE ARGUING ABOUT ECONOMIC DECOUPLING -- THAT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE EITHER -- CHINA AND INDIA REACH BEAR MARKET THESHOLDS -- FOREIGN STOCK INDEX IS ON MAJOR SELL SIGNAL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WORLD MARKETS FALL TOGETHER ... Just before leaving on my trip to Europe, I expressed serious skepticism about the recent theory of global decoupling. Holders of that questionable theory were brought back to reality by the plunge in Asian and European markets the following Monday (while the U.S. market was...
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GOLD AND SILVER GET A BOUNCE -- OIL AND COMMODITIES HOLD UP -- OVERSOLD BOUNCE COULD EXTEND TO BROKEN SUPPORT LEVELS - ESTIMATING RESISTANCE WITH KEY RETRACEMENTS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD AND SILVER SURGE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor
The streetTRACKS Gold ETF (GLD) and the Silver ETF (SLV) surged this past week. On the commodity exchanges, gold broke back above $900 and silver moved back above...
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TAKING A BIG STEP BACK -- BREAKING DOWN THE BIG TREND -- BULL MARKET STRATEGIES VERSUS BEAR MARKET STRATEGIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor
The S&P 500 has experienced two big trends over the last eight years. Let's look at these big trends to understand more...
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SMALL-CAPS AND FINANCIALS POWER THE MARKET HIGHER -- THE YIELD CURVE STEEPENS -- DOW TRANSPORTS GET A BIG LIFT -- TECHNOLOGY LAGS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET REBOUND... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor
The stock market rebounded in the afternoon with the Russell 2000 leading the major indices higher. This small-cap index gained over 3% and market volume was well above...
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RATE CUTS STABILIZE STOCKS -- TECHNICAL DAMAGE REMAINS -- FINANCE AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTORS LEAD RECOVERY -- THE LAG BETWEEN STIMULUS AND RESPONSE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED CUTS RATES TO BOLSTER STOCKS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor
With stock markets around the world falling sharply on Monday, the Fed stepped in ahead of schedule by cutting both the Fed funds rate and the...
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RECENT THEORY ON GLOBAL DECOUPLING IS A MYTH -- FOREIGN MARKETS ARE FALLING ALONG WITH THE US -- I'LL BE SPEAKING IN EUROPE NEXT WEEK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SO MUCH FOR GLOBAL DECOUPLING ... I've expressed reservations before about the recent theory of global decoupling. The reasoning was that foreign markets would remain relatively immune to a major selloff (and possible recession) in the U.S. That view struck me as strange, especially with the close correlation...
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BREAK OF AUGUST LOW CONFIRMS BEAR TREND -- BOLLINGER BANDS CALL FOR DOWNSIDE LOSS OF AT LEAST 20% WHICH WOULD BE OFFICIAL BEAR MARKET
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
AUGUST LOWS ARE BROKEN ... On Tuesday, I wrote that a break of the August lows by the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite would confirm that the stock market has entered into a new bear trend. The reasoning comes down to a simple definition of a...
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YES, COMMODITIES DO PULL BACK DURING A RECESSION -- COPPER IS THE MOST VULNERABLE WHILE GRAINS ARE THE LEAST VULNERABLE -- GOLD SHOULD HOLD UP BETTER THAN OIL IN A FALLING ECONOMY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COPPER WAS OLD LEADER ... A lot of questions have cropped up this week about what commodities as an asset class do in an economic downturn, and which commodities (if any) are more immune. During a recession (which often follows a stock market peak), most commodity markets do suffer pullbacks. Some...
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DOLLAR SURGES AS EURO TUMBLES -- EUROPEAN STOCK INDICES ARE NOT IN GOOD SHAPE -- VIX BREAKOUT IS BEARISH -- PUT/CALL RATIO RISES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SURGES ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor
Comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) sent the euro tumbling and the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) surging on Wednesday. Yves Mersch, an ECB council member, commented...
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ANOTHER BAD MARKET DAY AS MAJOR INDEXES THREATEN AUGUST LOW -- THE ONLY WINNERS WERE BEAR AND BOND FUNDS -- A BREAK OF THE AUGUST LOW WOULD CONFIRM NEW BEAR TREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE OF THE SAME... With each passing day, the economic news keeps getting worse. Today it was terrible fourth quarter earnings by Citigroup and very weak retail spending. As a result, financial and consumer discretionary stocks were the day's biggest losers as they've been doing for...
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WHY A RISING YEN THREATENS GLOBAL CARRY TRADE -- THE YEN IS RISING AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES -- GLOBAL STOCKS QUOTED IN YEN WEAKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LAND OF THE RISING YEN ... Last August 14, I showed this same chart with a warning that the rising Japanese yen threatened the global carry trade. At the time, the yen/dollar chart was just breaking through its two-year down trendline (see circle). Since then the chart has gotten a...
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COMMODITY MARKETS HIT NEW RECORDS -- LEADERS ARE GRAINS AND PRECIOUS METALS -- NAT GAS SHOWS ENERGY LEADERSHIP -- COMMODITIES GET A BOOST FROM RECORD HIGH IN EURO AGAINST DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CRB HITS NEW RECORD... Commodity markets are on a roll. As evidence of that, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index is trading over 370 today for the first time in its history (Chart 1). That puts the commodity index well above its spring 2006 high. And the rally is broad-based with...
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BEARISH MONTHLY AND WEEKLY MOMENTUM LIMITS POTENTIAL FOR BOUNCES ON DAILY CHARTS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOWNSIDE WEEKLY MOMENTUM LIMITS DAILY BOUNCES... I keep emphasizing the importance of long-term indicators. That's why I wrote yesterday that I doubted that the mid-week rally attempt would get very far in the face of deteriorating weekly and monthly technical indicators. "Daily" charts give us a...
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BERNANKE AND COUNTYWIDE FINANCIAL BOOST MARKET -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 ALSO BOUNCE OFF THEIR AUGUST LOWS -- SILVER HITS 28-YEAR HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BERNANKE BOUNCE ... The stock market continued the short-term bounce that began with yesterday's upside reversal day. The 5-minute bars in Chart 1 show two bursts of buying taking place at 12:15 and 2:15 in the S&P 500 SPDRs. The 12:15 spurt came courtesy...
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