OVERSOLD TECHS FIND SOME FOOTING... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor After becoming oversold, the stock market rebounded on Wednesday with techs leading the way. As Chart 1 shows, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) gained over 2% and formed... READ MORE
AT&T PLUNGE STARTS SELLOFF... It's always dangerous to attribute a market selloff to one stock, especially a market that has so much working against it. Today, however, a plunge in the stock of AT&T starting around 2:30 may have started the late selloff... READ MORE
WEAKNESS IN THE DOW TRANSPORTS IS BAD SIGN ... A lot of information (both market and economic) can be found in the interaction between the three Dow Averages. The most common is the relationship between the Dow Industrials and Transports, which is referred to as Dow Theory. That theory holds that... READ MORE
S&P 500 THREATENS 400-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... During the August market drop, I wrote about the importance of the 400-day moving average as a major support line. [That line is gotten by converting the 20-month moving average to a daily line. I'll show why we use that... READ MORE
MONTHLY INDICATORS WEAKEN ... It's very easy to get caught up in daily (and even weekly) market swings. That's especially true for those of us who follow the markets on a daily basis. There's an awful lot of confusion about the state of the stock... READ MORE
STOCK MARKET WEAKNESS CONTINUES... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Stocks pulled back on low volume after Christmas, but volume and the decline picked up steam on Wednesday. Both the Nasdaq Composite and the NY Composite fell sharply on... READ MORE
2007 SECTOR LEADERS ARE MOSTLY DEFENSIVE... One of the trends that we've commented on over the past few months has been steady outperformance by more defensive sectors in the market. Chart 1 shows that the 2007 leaders (in descending order) are Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare.... READ MORE
AN ISLAND REVERSAL FOR DIA ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) held above its November low by forging an island reversal over the last two weeks. On Chart 1, DIA peaked on 11-Dec when the Fed issued its policy... READ MORE
SANTA CLAUS RALLY... One of the most valuable investment books that I use is the annual Stock Trader's Almanac published by Jeffrey and Yale Hirsch. The book is published each year and contains a wealth of seasonal market information. I rely on it quite heavily as do many... READ MORE
MORE FOREIGN BREAKDOWNS ... On Tuesday, I showed a list of eleven foreign stock ETFs that had fallen below their 200-day moving averages. I showed a list of four foreign ETFs challenging that long-term support line. Two of those broke down today. Charts 1 and 2 show the Australia iShares (Chart... READ MORE
IWM BATTLES SUPPORT ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor There is a big battle raging at support for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Chart 1 shows the long-term trend with weekly prices for... READ MORE
GLOBAL INDEXES SHOW WEAKNESS... One of the new ideas I keep hearing is that foreign stocks are relatively immune from an economic slowdown in the U.S. While a weaker dollar has helped keep foreign markets stronger than the U.S., I'm skeptical of the theory of "... READ MORE
INFLATION NUMBERS BOOST BOND YIELDS... A rate cut by the Fed on Tuesday, and a coordinated infusion of funds by central bankers on Wednesday, weren't enough to keep the market from falling. Part of the reason for selling late in the week was big inflation jumps in the... READ MORE
QQQQ BATTLES RESISTANCE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) is waging a major battle around resistance at 52. The gaps and breakouts over the last few weeks are holding, but a rising wedge is... READ MORE
FED CUTS TWO RATES BY A QUARTER POINT ... The market was more than a little disappointed by the two modest rate cuts by the Fed and its accompanying statement. It lowered both the Fed fund and discount rates by a quarter of a point. Apparently, the market was hoping for... READ MORE
DOW THEORY DIVERGENCE... One of our readers asked for an update on Dow Theory, which is the oldest of technical indicators. Simply put, the Dow Theory holds that a new high by either the Dow Industrials or the Dow Transports should be confirmed by the other. When one hits a... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE IS ONE OF NEW MARKET LEADERS ... In response to a question about how I go about my daily analysis, I used the Market Summary page yesterday to show new buying in small caps, financials, and energy stocks. Today, I'm going to show how to use the Performance... READ MORE
S&P 500 BREAKS THROUGH CHART SUPPORT ... Earlier today, I wrote about the more positive tone of the market with new signs of strength in small caps and financials. By day's end, those two groups (along with homebuilders and energy) helped the S&P 500 (and... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS LEAD FOR A CHANGE... One of our readers asked how I go about making sense of so much market data on a given day. One of the places I start with is the Market Summary page. I'll use some of today's data to show... READ MORE
BIG TECHS PUSH MARKET HIGHER... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) led the market higher on Wednesday. On Chart 1, we can see that the surge above 51 is keeping last week's... READ MORE
S&P 500 BACKS OFF FROM RESISTANCE ... Last week I wrote about two longer-range moving averages based on Bollinger band values. I showed support at the 20-month (400 day) moving average line and resistance at the 20-week (100-day) average. I stated that the S&P needed to clear... READ MORE
USING P&F CHARTS FOR LONGER-TERM SIGNALS... One of our readers asked if point & figure signals could be used for intermediate and long-term trading signals. The answer is yes. Chart 1 uses a 1% box size for the S&P 500 which I find works well for... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEEDS TO CLEAR 100-DAY LINE ... On Monday I wrote about the S&P 500 testing long-term support at its 400-day (80-week) moving average line. The S&P has bounced off that support line to improve its short-term trend. I explained that the 80-"... READ MORE
DOW SURGES FOR SECOND DAY RUNNING... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The market moved sharply higher on Wednesday as hopes of a rate cut spurred the bulls into action. First, let's review some of the economic... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 MAY ATTEMPT BOUNCE OFF AUGUST LOW ... The market's 10% drop since mid-October matches a similar decline during July and August. Although the market's long-term trend is now in doubt, there's a good chance for a rally attempt off... READ MORE
WEEKLY EMA LINES AT CRITICAL SPOT... I received a number of requests to review some of our moving average indicators starting with the 13-34 exponential moving average (EMA) combination. Charts 1 and 2 compare that combination to the daily and weekly chart of the S&P 500. The daily... READ MORE
BONDS CONTINUE TO ATTRACT MONEY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Money continues to flow into the bond market as the economic outlook deteriorates. John Murphy pointed to the sharp decline in the Cyclicals Index ($CYC) on Monday and noted that this was a... READ MORE
MARKET STILL ON THE DEFENSIVE ... As I review my last Market Message written on Friday November 9 (before leaving for Europe), I see nothing to change my negative view of the market. The indicators that were bearish then are still bearish (both price and breadth). The weakest groups are still... READ MORE
DEFINITIONS FOR TREND AND TIMEFRAME ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor There are basically three time-frames at work in the market. While definitions can, and do, vary, I categorize the short-term, medium-term and long-term time-frames as follows.... READ MORE
FINANCIALS WEIGH ON THE MARKET ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor Continued concern over the sub-prime problems and the current credit crisis buoyed bonds and weighed on financial stocks-again. Barlays PLC reported that it will take a... READ MORE
DIA GETS COLD FEET... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor The Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) started the day strong, but gave up early gains and closed down for the day. The ETF met resistance from broken support... READ MORE
STOCKS REBOUND WITH BROAD RALLY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor Turnaround Tuesday lived up to its name today as the market surged with a broad rally. All of the major indices were up over 2%. The... READ MORE
NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX FALLS BELOW 50 ... On Wednesday, Arthur Hill wrote about the negative divergence between a rising Nasdaq market and a falling Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index with bearish implications for that market. Today, I'm applying the same analysis to the NYSE. Unfortunately, the message is similarly... READ MORE
LAST WEEK'S HEADLINES STILL APPLY... As I survey the damage done to the stock market this week, I reviewed what I wrote last Thursday. The preceding headline is taken from last Thursday's Market Message and describes today's market action quite well. Except that things... READ MORE
BROAD SELLING HITS WALL STREET... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor All of the major index ETFs moved sharply lower as broad selling pressure gripped Wall Street on Wednesday. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the way by... READ MORE
SILVER HITS NEW HIGH ... Another record low in the U.S. Dollar helped commodity markets to another big day on the upside. Oil jumped $2.72 to close near $97 and just three dollars shy of its 1980 high near $100 in inflation-adjusted dollars. Gold jumped $12 to close at... READ MORE
BEAR MARKET IN BANKS ... Earlier today I showed the Bank Index on the verge of hitting a new low for the year. By day's end, it had fallen to the lowest level in two years (Chart 1). The puts the BKX on track to challenge its 2005 low.... READ MORE
CITIGROUP PLUNGES 7% ... It's the same story over and over again. More bad news in financial stocks pulls the rest of the market lower. The day's biggest financial casualty is Citigroup which plunged more than 7% on huge volume. Chart 1 shows the nation's... READ MORE
STOCKS SURGE AFTER FED ANNOUNCEMENT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor As is usually the case on Fed day, the stock market put in a volatile performance on Wednesday. The major indices were modestly higher heading into the... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLES FOLLOW ENERGY... Chart 1 is an idealized diagram of how various market sectors do at various stages in the business cyle. The diagram is based on the work of Sam Stovall who has done extensive work in this area. There are two versions of this diagram. Let'... READ MORE