John Murphy

John Murphy


John is a renowned author in the investment field and former technical analyst for CNBC. Considered the father of intermarket technical analysis, his books include “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” and “Trading with Intermarket Analysis”. Learn More 

Archived News

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ENERGY AND TECHS CONTINUE TO LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- NASDAQ COMPOSITE CLEARS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- YAHOO POWERS INTERNET SURGE -- -- TOP ETF GAINERS ARE INTERNET AND OIL SERVICE HOLDERS --GO...

ENERGY AND TECHS CONTINUE TO LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- NASDAQ COMPOSITE CLEARS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- YAHOO POWERS INTERNET SURGE -- -- TOP ETF GAINERS ARE INTERNET AND OIL SERVICE HOLDERS --GOLD JUMPS $10 AS MOST COMMODITIES RALLY WITH STOCKS

INTERNET HOLDERS JUMP NEAR 4%... Energy and technology led the market higher again today. In fact, the day's strongest ETF was the Internet Holders (HHH) which jumped 3.8%. Chart 1 shows the HHH jumping impressively over its 50-day moving average today. The other three charts show strong...   READ MORE 

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OIL SERVICE STOCKS ARE STRONGEST ENERGY PLAY -- USING A MARKET CARPET TO FIND ENERGY LEADERS -- EARLIER MONTHLY SELL SIGNAL HAS BEEN ERASED -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDA...

OIL SERVICE STOCKS ARE STRONGEST ENERGY PLAY -- USING A MARKET CARPET TO FIND ENERGY LEADERS -- EARLIER MONTHLY SELL SIGNAL HAS BEEN ERASED -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ 100 HAS ALREADY CLEARED THAT BARRIER

OIL SERVICE LEADS ENERGY SECTOR... Energy stocks have resumed their role as one of the market's strongest sectors. But there's more to it than that. We can break the energy sector down into three groups to see where the real energy leaders lie. All three lines...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ 100 IS STILL THE STRONGEST MARKET INDEX -- SOME MORE RECENT QQQQ LEADERS ARE ADOBE, CISCO, AND DELL -- NASDAQ BIOTECH LEADERS INCLUDE BIOGEN IDEC AND CELGENE

NASDAQ 100 IS STILL THE STRONGEST MARKET INDEX -- SOME MORE RECENT QQQQ LEADERS ARE ADOBE, CISCO, AND DELL -- NASDAQ BIOTECH LEADERS INCLUDE BIOGEN IDEC AND CELGENE

NASDAQ 100 IS YEAR'S AND SUMMER'S TOP INDEX... Arthur Hill wrote yesterday about leadership in the Nasdaq 100. Today's first two charts show the same thing, but in a different way. Chart 1 compares the performance of the six major market indexes since the...   READ MORE 

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QQQQ LEADS MARKET REBOUND -- APPLE AND INTEL POWER BIG TECHS -- NOKIA HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- SEAGATE BREAKS RESISTANCE -- OIL SURGES ON INVENTORY NUMBERS -- BULLISH PERCENT INDICES FOR NDX A...

QQQQ LEADS MARKET REBOUND -- APPLE AND INTEL POWER BIG TECHS -- NOKIA HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- SEAGATE BREAKS RESISTANCE -- OIL SURGES ON INVENTORY NUMBERS -- BULLISH PERCENT INDICES FOR NDX AND THE DOW

NASDAQ 100 LEADS REBOUND... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Large-cap tech stocks led the market higher on Wednesday as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) recovered after Tuesday's drubbing. The ETF surged almost 3% and filled...   READ MORE 

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RECORD DROP IN HOME PRICES AND PLUNGE IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SINK STOCKS -- HOMEBUILDERS, FINANCIALS, AND SMALL CAPS LEAD DECLINE -- BOND YIELDS FALL AS VOLATILITY AND THE YEN JUMP

RECORD DROP IN HOME PRICES AND PLUNGE IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SINK STOCKS -- HOMEBUILDERS, FINANCIALS, AND SMALL CAPS LEAD DECLINE -- BOND YIELDS FALL AS VOLATILITY AND THE YEN JUMP

FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS FALL THE HARDEST... Tonight's message is largely a repeat of the message I sent this morning. Except that things got even worse as the day wore on. I wrote last week that one of the ways to tell if the market rebound had any...   READ MORE 

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MORE BAD NEWS ON HOUSING MAY HAVE ENDED RALLY ATTEMPT AS FINANCIALS, HOMEBUILDERS, AND SMALL CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF SLIPPING BACK BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE

MORE BAD NEWS ON HOUSING MAY HAVE ENDED RALLY ATTEMPT AS FINANCIALS, HOMEBUILDERS, AND SMALL CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF SLIPPING BACK BELOW ITS 200-DAY AVERAGE

RECORD DROP IN HOME PRICES... The housing situation just keeps getting worse. The market lost some ground yesterday on news that the unsold inventory of homes was at a sixteen year high. Today's news that the price of homes fell by a record amount in the second quarter...   READ MORE 

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MARKET RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ON LOW VOLUME -- BOND YIELDS STAY FLAT WHILE T-BILL RATE JUMPS

MARKET RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ON LOW VOLUME -- BOND YIELDS STAY FLAT WHILE T-BILL RATE JUMPS

WHERE'S THE VOLUME... Friday's higher prices continued the market rally that started the previous Thursday. The three charts below show major market ETFs all back above their 200-day moving averages, which removes any immediate threat of a bear market. All have recovered more than half of...   READ MORE 

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GRAIN MARKETS LEAD AGRICULATURAL GROUP HIGHER -- GOLD HOLDS UP AS WELL -- OIL SERVICE HOLDERS LEAD ENERGY SECTOR HIGHER -- PULLBACK IN YEN HELPS MARKET -- BUT WHERE'S THE VOLUME

GRAIN MARKETS LEAD AGRICULATURAL GROUP HIGHER -- GOLD HOLDS UP AS WELL -- OIL SERVICE HOLDERS LEAD ENERGY SECTOR HIGHER -- PULLBACK IN YEN HELPS MARKET -- BUT WHERE'S THE VOLUME

AGRICULATURALS ARE STRONGEST OF COMMODITIES... Commodity markets have come under pressure along with stocks over the past month -- but not by equal amounts. The CRB Index lost -7% during the liquidity crisis. The hardest hit group was the economically-sensitive industrial metals which fell -15%. The energy group lost -8%...   READ MORE 

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PULLBACK IN VOLATILITY INDEX SUPPORTS SHORT-TERM MARKET BOUNCE -- S&P 500 CLOSES BACK ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE, BUT VOLUME IS LIGHT -- FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS STILL NEED TO CLEAR THEIR AUGU...

PULLBACK IN VOLATILITY INDEX SUPPORTS SHORT-TERM MARKET BOUNCE -- S&P 500 CLOSES BACK ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE, BUT VOLUME IS LIGHT -- FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS STILL NEED TO CLEAR THEIR AUGUST HIGHS

VIX INDEX IS PULLING BACK... True to its history of trending in the opposite direction of stocks, the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index continues to weaken after hitting a four-year high last Thursday (when the market bottomed). Chart 1 shows the VIX falling back to 23 and testing a short-term trendline...   READ MORE 

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INTEREST RATES FELL WITH STOCKS IN 1998 AND 1987, BUT THEN BOTTOMED WITH THEM AS WELL -- THE INABILITY OF BOND YIELDS TO BOUNCE IN 2000 LED TO MUCH BIGGER STOCK LOSSES -- RIGHT NOW, BOND Y...

INTEREST RATES FELL WITH STOCKS IN 1998 AND 1987, BUT THEN BOTTOMED WITH THEM AS WELL -- THE INABILITY OF BOND YIELDS TO BOUNCE IN 2000 LED TO MUCH BIGGER STOCK LOSSES -- RIGHT NOW, BOND YIELDS AREN'T BOUNCING WITH STOCKS

POSSIBLE LINK BETWEEN RATES AND STOCKS ... When volatility rises, asset classes become highly correlated. That's especially true with bonds and stocks. I'm referring here to bond "yields" instead of prices. Chart 1 shows that the 10-year T-Note yield (green line) and the S&...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN STOCK MARKETS LOOK EVEN WEAKER THAN THE U.S. -- IF THAT'S THE CASE, HOW ARE THEY GOING TO SUPPORT THE U.S. MARKET -- COMPARISON OF 2007 AND 1998 SUMMER PEAKS -- DETERMINING HOW LON...

FOREIGN STOCK MARKETS LOOK EVEN WEAKER THAN THE U.S. -- IF THAT'S THE CASE, HOW ARE THEY GOING TO SUPPORT THE U.S. MARKET -- COMPARISON OF 2007 AND 1998 SUMMER PEAKS -- DETERMINING HOW LONG A RIGHT SHOULDER SHOULD LAST

MAYBE GLOBAL GROWTH ISN'T THAT STRONG ... One of the mantras we keep hearing on TV is that strong global markets and economies will prevent the U.S. economy (and stock market) from suffering a serious slowdown. Since I happen to be of the belief that stock markets are...   READ MORE 

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IT'S NOT CLEAR IF THIS WEEK'S BOUNCE IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE MARKET CORRECTION OR THE END OF THE BEGINNING OF A BEAR MARKET -- WHY THE CURRENT REBOUND COULD BE PART OF A HEAD AN...

IT'S NOT CLEAR IF THIS WEEK'S BOUNCE IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE MARKET CORRECTION OR THE END OF THE BEGINNING OF A BEAR MARKET -- WHY THE CURRENT REBOUND COULD BE PART OF A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOPPING PATTERN

MARKET BOUNCES OFF IMPORTANT CHART SUPPORT ... Yesterday I showed the S&P 500 bouncing off its March low (after correcting 10%) and also the 400-day moving average (green line) which has ended every downside correction since the bull market started more than four years ago. I also pointed out...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITY MARKETS TUMBLE ON GLOBAL STOCK SELLING -- REBOUND IN FINANCIALS, HOWEVER, STEADIES MARKET IN AFTERNOON -- OVERSOLD S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF ITS MARCH LOW SUGGESTING THE WORST MAY BE O...

COMMODITY MARKETS TUMBLE ON GLOBAL STOCK SELLING -- REBOUND IN FINANCIALS, HOWEVER, STEADIES MARKET IN AFTERNOON -- OVERSOLD S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF ITS MARCH LOW SUGGESTING THE WORST MAY BE OVER FOR NOW

CRB INDEX TUMBLES ... The global stock rout spilled over to the commodity pits. The CRB Index fell 10 points to close well under its 200-day average (Chart 1). Several newswires suggested that investors were selling commodities to finance stock losses. Earlier today, I showed sizeable losses in copper and gold...   READ MORE 

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RISING YEN IS ACTUALLY HELPING THE DOLLAR WHILE HURTING FOREIGN CURRENCIES -- AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR PLUNGES 5% -- GOLD AND GOLD SHARES ARE BEING SOLD ALONG WITH OTHER COMMODITIES -- S&P 500 RE...

RISING YEN IS ACTUALLY HELPING THE DOLLAR WHILE HURTING FOREIGN CURRENCIES -- AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR PLUNGES 5% -- GOLD AND GOLD SHARES ARE BEING SOLD ALONG WITH OTHER COMMODITIES -- S&P 500 REACHES 10% CORRECTION AND APPEARS HEADED FOR TEST OF MARCH LOW

GOLD SUCCUMBS TO SELLING PRESSURE... My optimism on gold as a potential safe haven is being severely challenged today. Gold shares are being hit especially hard. Chart 1 shows the XAU Index falling more than 5% and falling to a new 2007 low. Earlier in the week I suggested the...   READ MORE 

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DOW TRANSPORTS AND DOW INDUSTRIALS BREAK SUPPORT -- TREND IDENTIFICATION -- PRIOR DOW THEORY BUY SIGNAL -- CURRENT DOW THEORY STATUS -- LOOKING OUTSIDE DOW THEORY FOR CONFIRMATION -- BREAD...

DOW TRANSPORTS AND DOW INDUSTRIALS BREAK SUPPORT -- TREND IDENTIFICATION -- PRIOR DOW THEORY BUY SIGNAL -- CURRENT DOW THEORY STATUS -- LOOKING OUTSIDE DOW THEORY FOR CONFIRMATION -- BREADTH REMAINS WEAK

DOW THEORY REVIEW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Today I would like to review Dow Theory and look at the current signal. The "Dow Theory" evolved from the writings of Charles Dow at the turn...   READ MORE 

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MARKET HAS ANOTHER BAD DAY AS 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BROKEN -- RETAILERS AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD DAY'S DECLINE -- YEN RALLY THREATENS CARRY TRADE --

MARKET HAS ANOTHER BAD DAY AS 200-DAY AVERAGES ARE BROKEN -- RETAILERS AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD DAY'S DECLINE -- YEN RALLY THREATENS CARRY TRADE --

RETAILERS LEAD DAY'S DECLINE ... Spooked by tumbles in big retail chains like Wal Mart and Home Depot, retail stocks fell -3.5% today and led the rest of the market lower. Other big losers were homebuilders (-4%) and REITS (-3%). Heavy selling in homebuilders and retailers made Consumer...   READ MORE 

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WAL MART AND HOME DEPOT PLUNGE ON WEAK HOUSING AND HIGH ENERGY PRICES -- THAT'S WHY IT'S DANGEROUS TO EXCLUDE ENERGY FROM INFLATION -- COLLAPSE IN CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR HINTS AT WE...

WAL MART AND HOME DEPOT PLUNGE ON WEAK HOUSING AND HIGH ENERGY PRICES -- THAT'S WHY IT'S DANGEROUS TO EXCLUDE ENERGY FROM INFLATION -- COLLAPSE IN CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR HINTS AT WEAKER CONSUMER SPENDING

PRODUCER INFLATION WAS UP -- NOT DOWN AS REPORTED ... One of the major newswires reported this morning that inflation at the producer level came in lower than expected during July. The article was referring to the "core inflation" number (excluding food and energy) which was 0.1% (lower...   READ MORE 

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SECTOR ROTATION MODEL SHOWS THAT STOCK MARKET IS LEADING INDICATOR FOR THE ECONOMY -- WHY RECENT SECTOR ROTATIONS MAY CARRY A WARNING -- MARKET'S RALLY ATTEMPT FADES AS 200-DAY LINE REMAIN...

SECTOR ROTATION MODEL SHOWS THAT STOCK MARKET IS LEADING INDICATOR FOR THE ECONOMY -- WHY RECENT SECTOR ROTATIONS MAY CARRY A WARNING -- MARKET'S RALLY ATTEMPT FADES AS 200-DAY LINE REMAINS THREATENED

STOCKS LEAD THE ECONOMY... Over the weekend, I explained why we can't use the economy to predict the stock market. Because stocks turn down six to nine months before the economy. That doesn't mean that every market downturn leads to an economic slowdown or recession. That&...   READ MORE 

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SHORT-TERM MARKET TREND MAY BE STABILIZING -- BUT LONG-TERM TREND MAY BE WEAKENING -- WHY ECONOMISTS SHOULDN'T BE ASKED ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET

SHORT-TERM MARKET TREND MAY BE STABILIZING -- BUT LONG-TERM TREND MAY BE WEAKENING -- WHY ECONOMISTS SHOULDN'T BE ASKED ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET

GLOBAL STOCKS ARE TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGES... With the all recent market turmoil, it's important not to lose sight of the big picture. We all know by now that the stock market has suffered a sharp downturn over the last month on record volume. And we all know where...   READ MORE 

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MARKET BOUNCE ENDS IN DECISIVE FASHION -- NEXT DOWNLEG APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED -- WHY WATCHING CABLE TV ISN'T GOOD FOR YOUR WEALTH

MARKET BOUNCE ENDS IN DECISIVE FASHION -- NEXT DOWNLEG APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED -- WHY WATCHING CABLE TV ISN'T GOOD FOR YOUR WEALTH

RESISTANCE KICKS IN... Over the past week, I've been plotting Fibonacci retracement lines over the major stock indexes to show where potential resistance levels (renewed selling) could be expected. A normal short-term bounce usually carries anywhere from a third (38%) to half (50%) of the previous downturn. The...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS AND RETAILERS LEAD MARKET DECLINE AS MORE SUBPRIME PROBLEMS ARISE

FINANCIALS AND RETAILERS LEAD MARKET DECLINE AS MORE SUBPRIME PROBLEMS ARISE

BANKS AND BROKERS ARE BIGGEST LOSERS... More subprime problems emerging from Europe have caused heaving selling in stocks around the world. Most of that scared money is contining to flow into Treasury Bonds which are up today. As has been the case recently on down days, financial stocks are the...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS VERSUS BIG TECHS -- RUSSELL 2000 GETS OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- NASDAQ 100 MAINTAINS UPTREND -- CISCO POWERS BIG TECHS -- THE SUB-PRIME PROGRESSION -- REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS SURGE -- T...

SMALL-CAPS VERSUS BIG TECHS -- RUSSELL 2000 GETS OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- NASDAQ 100 MAINTAINS UPTREND -- CISCO POWERS BIG TECHS -- THE SUB-PRIME PROGRESSION -- REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS SURGE -- TARGETS FOR OVERSOLD BOUNCES

A TALE OF TWO MARKETS ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Stocks rebounded over the last three days, but these rebounds need to be considered in the context of prior price action. While the advance in the Russell...   READ MORE 

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CONSUMER STAPLES WERE MONTH'S TOP SECTOR -- CONSUMER STAPLE LEADERS -- S&P 500 BULLISH PERCENT INDEX TESTS IMPORTANT CHART SUPPORT -- S&P 500 REGAINS ITS 200-DAY LINE -- FINANCIAL REBOUND...

CONSUMER STAPLES WERE MONTH'S TOP SECTOR -- CONSUMER STAPLE LEADERS -- S&P 500 BULLISH PERCENT INDEX TESTS IMPORTANT CHART SUPPORT -- S&P 500 REGAINS ITS 200-DAY LINE -- FINANCIAL REBOUND STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO TO REPAIR RECENT CHART DAMAGE

CONSUMER STAPLES MONTH'S TOP SECTOR... As usually happens when the stock market sells off sharply, money tends to flow to stocks with defensive characteristics. These are stocks that usually fall less during a market downturn -- and, hopefully, even gain ground while the rest of the market drops....   READ MORE 

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USING PERFORMANCE CHARTS TO FIND GROUP LEADERS AND LAGGARDS -- WHY RECENT PREFERENCE FOR BLUE CHIPS ISN'T A GOOD SIGN -- WEAK JOBS REPORT PUSHES DOLLAR AND BOND YIELDS LOWER - BONDS AND GO...

USING PERFORMANCE CHARTS TO FIND GROUP LEADERS AND LAGGARDS -- WHY RECENT PREFERENCE FOR BLUE CHIPS ISN'T A GOOD SIGN -- WEAK JOBS REPORT PUSHES DOLLAR AND BOND YIELDS LOWER - BONDS AND GOLD ARE DAY'S WINNERS AS STOCKS DROP

JOHN'S LATEST PERFORMANCE CHART... Each week I post a performance chart under the headline shown above. It can be found on the John Murphy page. I usually show which market sectors, or industry group, are doing better than the S&P 500 (which is the industry benchmark...   READ MORE 

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A COMPARISON OF GOLD AND STOCKS -- GOLD HAS BEEN THE STRONGER ASSET SINCE 2000 -- NOT ALL FUNDAMENTALS ARE BULLISH -- SHORT-TERM MARKET REBOUND CONTINUES -- BUT DAILY AND WEEKLY INDICATORS...

A COMPARISON OF GOLD AND STOCKS -- GOLD HAS BEEN THE STRONGER ASSET SINCE 2000 -- NOT ALL FUNDAMENTALS ARE BULLISH -- SHORT-TERM MARKET REBOUND CONTINUES -- BUT DAILY AND WEEKLY INDICATORS AREN'T IN SYNC

SHORT-TERM VIEW... I've received a large number of questions as to how gold holds up when stocks fall. What makes a firm answer to that difficult is that gold and stocks often trend together over the short run. Gold has also shown a tendency to correct along with...   READ MORE 

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SPY FIRMS AFTER BIG DOWN WEEK -- TECHNOLOGY STILL SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BREAKS MARCH LOW -- CISCO MAINTAINS BREAKOUT -- NIKKEI LEADS LOWER -- RISING YEN WEIGH...

SPY FIRMS AFTER BIG DOWN WEEK -- TECHNOLOGY STILL SHOWING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BREAKS MARCH LOW -- CISCO MAINTAINS BREAKOUT -- NIKKEI LEADS LOWER -- RISING YEN WEIGHS ON NIKKEI -- OIH TESTS 50-DAY -- VOLUME BASED INDICATORS

SPY BATTLES 40-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trying to firm this week and find support. The ETF declined sharply last week on record weekly volume (over...   READ MORE 

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AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ARE USUALLY WEAK MONTHS -- THAT WOULD BE A LOGICAL TIME FOR MARKET CORRECTION TO RESUME -- CLARIFYING MOVING AVERAGE LINES AND SIGNALS-- MARKET RALLY FADES AS 50-DAY A...

AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ARE USUALLY WEAK MONTHS -- THAT WOULD BE A LOGICAL TIME FOR MARKET CORRECTION TO RESUME -- CLARIFYING MOVING AVERAGE LINES AND SIGNALS-- MARKET RALLY FADES AS 50-DAY AVERAGES BECOME NEW RESISTANCE

AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER IS MOST DANGEROUS TIME... In my weekend analysis, I closed with the comment that I thought the market could suffer a 10% correction "between now and the autumn". I chose that time period for a very good reason. By the end of July, any summer...   READ MORE 

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REASONS WHY THIS MARKET CORRECTION MAY BE BIGGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES

REASONS WHY THIS MARKET CORRECTION MAY BE BIGGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES

FIRST A SURVEY OF THE WEEK'S DAMAGE... It was the market's worst week since the bull market began more than four years ago -- both in terms of percentage losses, downside volume, and bad breadth. All market sectors and industry groups fell. Every single market index...   READ MORE 

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MARKET FALLS AGAIN ON FRIDAY -- S&P 500 IS HEADED FOR TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- VIX HITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE BULL MARKET BEGAN IN 2003 -- THAT SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRECTION COULD BE BIGGE...

MARKET FALLS AGAIN ON FRIDAY -- S&P 500 IS HEADED FOR TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- VIX HITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE BULL MARKET BEGAN IN 2003 -- THAT SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRECTION COULD BE BIGGER THAN PREVIOUS ONES -- EXPECT SATURDAY MESSAGE

S&P 500 HEADED FOR TEST OF 200-DAY LINE... The stock market had another bad day on Friday as all major stock indexes closed below Thurday's intra-day lows (and again on heavy volume). The first three charts show the week's technical damage done to three...   READ MORE 

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HOMEBUILDING CHARTS SUGGESTS HOUSING SITUATION IS GOING TO GET A LOT WORSE -- DR HORTON AND LENNAR BREAK NECKLINES IN MAJOR HEAD AND SHOULDER TOPS -- VIX HITS NEW 2007 HIGH -- RISING YEN T...

HOMEBUILDING CHARTS SUGGESTS HOUSING SITUATION IS GOING TO GET A LOT WORSE -- DR HORTON AND LENNAR BREAK NECKLINES IN MAJOR HEAD AND SHOULDER TOPS -- VIX HITS NEW 2007 HIGH -- RISING YEN THREATENS GLOBAL RALLY

HOUSING SECTOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ... I've suggested for some time that those calling for a housing bottom look at the long-term chart of homebuilders. If they had, they wouldn't be as surprised as they seem to be. [That includes the heads of the Fed and the...   READ MORE 

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MARKET CONTINUES TO FALL ON BAD BREADTH -- NYSE INDEX BREAKS JUNE LOW -- DOW AND NASDAQ UNDERCUT 50-DAY AVERAGES -- RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX TRADES BELOW 200-DAY LINE -- WEAKEST GROUPS...

MARKET CONTINUES TO FALL ON BAD BREADTH -- NYSE INDEX BREAKS JUNE LOW -- DOW AND NASDAQ UNDERCUT 50-DAY AVERAGES -- RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX TRADES BELOW 200-DAY LINE -- WEAKEST GROUPS ARE AIRLINES BROKERS, AND HOMEBUILDERS

SUPPORT LEVELS ARE BEING BROKEN... The market continues to drop on very bad breadth. Losers on the big board are swamping gainers by a 10 to 1 ratio. The same is true of downside volume versus upside volume. [The NYSE AD line hit a three-month low on Tuesday]. The charts...   READ MORE 

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VALUE STOCKS DRAG DOWN RUSSELL 2000 -- XLU BREAKS FLAG SUPPORT-- NEW LOWS EXPAND ON NYSE AND NASDAQ -- US DOLLAR INDEX HAS A BIG DAY -- GOLD DECLINES ON DOLLAR STRENGTH -- APPLIED MATERIAL...

VALUE STOCKS DRAG DOWN RUSSELL 2000 -- XLU BREAKS FLAG SUPPORT-- NEW LOWS EXPAND ON NYSE AND NASDAQ -- US DOLLAR INDEX HAS A BIG DAY -- GOLD DECLINES ON DOLLAR STRENGTH -- APPLIED MATERIALS REMAINS STRONG -- RF MICRO DEVICES GAPS HIGHER

VALUE LEADING THE WAY DOWN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Russell 2000 broke below its June lows this week and this break can be attributed to the "value" components. The Russell 2000 can be...   READ MORE 

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MARKET FALLS HARD ON BAD BREADTH AND HEAVY VOLUME -- NYSE ADVANCE-LINE TURNS DOWN -- FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS LEAD THE WAY -- THE S&P 500 BREAKS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

MARKET FALLS HARD ON BAD BREADTH AND HEAVY VOLUME -- NYSE ADVANCE-LINE TURNS DOWN -- FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS LEAD THE WAY -- THE S&P 500 BREAKS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS LED THE WAY ... Earlier today I showed heavy selling in the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF). [Please see Market Message posted earlier today]. Unfortunately, things got worse as the day progressed. Chart 1 shows the IWM closing 2.8% lower...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL STOCKS APPROACH TEST OF MAJOR SUPPORT -- SMALL CAPS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALONG WITH MARKET BREADTH -- THE 13-AND 34-DAY EMA COMBINATION SHOWS S&P TREND STILL UP BUT STARTING TO WEAKEN

FINANCIAL STOCKS APPROACH TEST OF MAJOR SUPPORT -- SMALL CAPS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALONG WITH MARKET BREADTH -- THE 13-AND 34-DAY EMA COMBINATION SHOWS S&P TREND STILL UP BUT STARTING TO WEAKEN

FINANCIAL SPDR NEARS TEST OF SPRING LOW ... One of our readers asked me recently if the daily chart of the Financials SPDR looked like a bullish "triangle" or a bearish "double top". This week's downside action has pretty much ruled out the "triangle&...   READ MORE 

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NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX SHOWS NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE -- BREADTH DETERIORATION IS SEEN IN FINANCIALS, HOUSING, REITS, AND SMALL CAPS -- BONDS JUMP AS STOCKS FALL -- GOLD JUMPS ON WEAK DOLLA...

NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX SHOWS NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE -- BREADTH DETERIORATION IS SEEN IN FINANCIALS, HOUSING, REITS, AND SMALL CAPS -- BONDS JUMP AS STOCKS FALL -- GOLD JUMPS ON WEAK DOLLAR -- RISING YEN MAY WEAKEN CARRY TRADE

NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX ... I wrote yesterday about some short-term negative divergences appearing on some of our market breadth indicators. Here's another one. But first an explanation of what it is. The NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is the percent of stocks in an index that are in...   READ MORE 

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BREADTH MEASURES SHOW SHORT-TERM DIVERGENCE -- IBM CONTINUES TO REFLECT NEW TECHNOLOGY BLUE CHIP DOMINANCE -- MICROSOFT HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH -- MORE PRECIOUS METAL INDEXES NEAR BULLISH BR...

BREADTH MEASURES SHOW SHORT-TERM DIVERGENCE -- IBM CONTINUES TO REFLECT NEW TECHNOLOGY BLUE CHIP DOMINANCE -- MICROSOFT HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH -- MORE PRECIOUS METAL INDEXES NEAR BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- BARRICK GOLD NEARS RECORD

NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE SHOWS MINOR DIVERGENCE ... One of our readers asked me to comment on short-term negative divergences showing up on some of our market breadth measures. The main one, of course, is the NYSE Advance-Decline line ($NYAD). Chart 1 shows the divergence referred to. While the NYSE Composite Index...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SECTOR DRAGS THE MARKET LOWER -- USING RSI TO DETERMINE THE TREND -- BANKS AND BROKERS REMAIN LAGGARDS -- MERRILL AND JP MORGAN GAP DOWN -- GOLD AND SILVER ATTRACT BUYERS -- ST JUD...

FINANCE SECTOR DRAGS THE MARKET LOWER -- USING RSI TO DETERMINE THE TREND -- BANKS AND BROKERS REMAIN LAGGARDS -- MERRILL AND JP MORGAN GAP DOWN -- GOLD AND SILVER ATTRACT BUYERS -- ST JUDE MEDICAL HITS 52-WEEK HIGH

FINANCE LEADS THE WAY LOWER... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Of the nine sector SPDRs, the Finance SPDR (XLF) lost the most on Wednesday and dragged the market lower. Continuing problems with sub-prime loans were to blame...   READ MORE 

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CHEMICALS AND SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR KEEPS TAIWAN ETF IN NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE -- MICROSOFT CLEARS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

CHEMICALS AND SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR KEEPS TAIWAN ETF IN NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE -- MICROSOFT CLEARS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

CHEMICALS BOOST BASIC MATERIALS ... Basic materials have been one of the market's strongest groups this year. A lot of the reason for that has to go to strong buying in the chemical group. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Chemicals Index ($DJUSCH) climbing 1.7% and hitting...   READ MORE 

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GENERAL ELECTRIC SHOWS NEW LEADERSHIP -- FEDEX AND ALEXANDER & BALDWIN LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- PAYCHEX ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT ON NASDAQ -- US DOLLAR IS CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW -- THE PR...

GENERAL ELECTRIC SHOWS NEW LEADERSHIP -- FEDEX AND ALEXANDER & BALDWIN LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER -- PAYCHEX ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT ON NASDAQ -- US DOLLAR IS CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW -- THE PROFUNDS FALLING DOLLAR FUND EXCEEDS 2005 HIGHS

GENERAL ELECTRIC IS STARTING TO LEAD ... Today's 2% jump in General Electric has pushed the stock to a new multi-year high as shown in Chart 1. As good as that "absolute" performance is, a bigger part of the GE story is the recent upturn in its...   READ MORE 

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ALCOA LEADS DOW TO NEW RECORD -- BARRICK GOLD HELPS XAU INDEX BREAK OUT -- CISCO AND INTEL LEAD TECHS HIGHER -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDERS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUT

ALCOA LEADS DOW TO NEW RECORD -- BARRICK GOLD HELPS XAU INDEX BREAK OUT -- CISCO AND INTEL LEAD TECHS HIGHER -- SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDERS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUT

ALCOA BREAKS OUT TO A NEW RECORD ... Not only did the Dow Industrials hit a new record today, it was the biggest percentage gainer of the major market indexes. A big reason for that was a 6% gain in Alcoa. The monthly bars in Chart 2 show the aluminum giant...   READ MORE