John Murphy

John Murphy


John is a renowned author in the investment field and former technical analyst for CNBC. Considered the father of intermarket technical analysis, his books include “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” and “Trading with Intermarket Analysis”. Learn More 

Archived News

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S&P 100 REMAINS RANGE BOUND -- RUSSELL 2000 FAILS AT RESISTANCE -- BROKERS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- MERRILL LEADS BROKERS LOWER -- COAL STOCKS VERSUS CRUDE OIL -- CRB INDEX BREAKS RESISTANCE

S&P 100 REMAINS RANGE BOUND -- RUSSELL 2000 FAILS AT RESISTANCE -- BROKERS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- MERRILL LEADS BROKERS LOWER -- COAL STOCKS VERSUS CRUDE OIL -- CRB INDEX BREAKS RESISTANCE

SMALL-CAPS AND LARGE-CAPS LAGGING... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor While the Nasdaq ($COMPQ) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) moved to new highs in early July, the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Russell 2000 ($RUT) met resistance from their June highs and stalled over...   READ MORE 

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HOUSING AND FINANCIAL PROBLEMS TAKE CENTER STAGE -- EURO HITS NEW RECORD AGAINST THE DOLLAR -- MARKET INDEXES PULL BACK FROM TOP OF RECENT TRADING RANGE

HOUSING AND FINANCIAL PROBLEMS TAKE CENTER STAGE -- EURO HITS NEW RECORD AGAINST THE DOLLAR -- MARKET INDEXES PULL BACK FROM TOP OF RECENT TRADING RANGE

EURO HITS NEW RECORD VERSUS THE DOLLAR ... A sharp drop in U.S. bond yields today is causing heavy selling of the U.S. Dollar. Most of the major foreign currencies are gaining ground (including the yen). The most notable move, however, is in the Euro. The daily bars in...   READ MORE 

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RISING TECHNOLOGY APPEARS TO BE WINNING BATTLE WITH WEAK FINANCIALS -- ALTERA IS ANOTHER SOX LEADER NEARING BULLISH BREAKOUT -- GOLD SHARES ARE STARTING TO PULL BULLION HIGHER -- FALLING D...

RISING TECHNOLOGY APPEARS TO BE WINNING BATTLE WITH WEAK FINANCIALS -- ALTERA IS ANOTHER SOX LEADER NEARING BULLISH BREAKOUT -- GOLD SHARES ARE STARTING TO PULL BULLION HIGHER -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES AND FOREIGN SHARES

TECHNOLOGY OVERCOMES FINANCIAL WEAKNESS ... On Friday June 29, I wrote about a tug-of-war going on between a strong technology sector (which is good for the market) versus a weak financial sector (which is bad). So far, it looks like technology is winning the battle. The three lines in Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- NYSE COMPOSITE RECAPTURES 10K -- A 10 YEAR LOOK AT THE NASDAQ -- AIRLINES TAKE OFF -- CONTINENTAL LEADS AIRLINES HIGHER -- APPLE BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- T...

NASDAQ HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- NYSE COMPOSITE RECAPTURES 10K -- A 10 YEAR LOOK AT THE NASDAQ -- AIRLINES TAKE OFF -- CONTINENTAL LEADS AIRLINES HIGHER -- APPLE BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- THE APPLE AFFECT -- GOLD MINERS ETF BOUNCES OFF RANGE SUPPORT

STOCKS END HIGHER IN SHORT SESSION... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The stock exchanges closed early on Tuesday (1PM), but that did not deter the bulls and the major indices notched another gain before the 4th of July holiday. The gains across the...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS START THE SECOND HALF STRONG -- TECHS CONTINUE TO LEAD - GM AND FORD HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS -- US DOLLAR TUMBLES -- GOLD BOUNCES ON DOLLAR WEAKNESS

STOCKS START THE SECOND HALF STRONG -- TECHS CONTINUE TO LEAD - GM AND FORD HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS -- US DOLLAR TUMBLES -- GOLD BOUNCES ON DOLLAR WEAKNESS

GOOD NEWS BOOSTS STOCKS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Good news brought out the bulls and stocks started the second half of the year on a strong note. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) got things started with a report that their June...   READ MORE 

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MARKET TREND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER TECHNOLOGY STRENGTH CAN OVERCOME FINANCIAL WEAKNESS -- SOME RECENT NASDAQ LEADERS -- DELL BREAKS OUT -- SHORT-TERM S&P 500 TREND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN

MARKET TREND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER TECHNOLOGY STRENGTH CAN OVERCOME FINANCIAL WEAKNESS -- SOME RECENT NASDAQ LEADERS -- DELL BREAKS OUT -- SHORT-TERM S&P 500 TREND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN

TUG OF WAR GOING ON ... It seems to me that a tug of war is going on in the market between two opposing forces. On the positive side is the recent resurgence in technology shares. That's usually good for the market. On the negative side is recent selling...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 AND RUSSELL 2000 BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- NASDAQ SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SEMIS LEAD TECHS HIGHER -- MXIM AND AMAT POWER THE SEMIS -- BIOGEN JOINS BUYBACK FEVER -- USING PRICE CHANNELS

S&P 500 AND RUSSELL 2000 BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- NASDAQ SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SEMIS LEAD TECHS HIGHER -- MXIM AND AMAT POWER THE SEMIS -- BIOGEN JOINS BUYBACK FEVER -- USING PRICE CHANNELS

TESTING KEY SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE FED... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Fed started its two day meeting today and an announcement is expected tomorrow afternoon. Stocks were weak leading up to the meeting, but managed...   READ MORE 

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DRUGS AND TOBACCO ATTRACT NEW BUYING -- COCA COLA ENTERPRISES ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- RISING BOND YIELDS MAY BE HURTING PRECIOUS METALS -- MARKET RALLY FADES AS VIX JUMPS TO THREE-MON...

DRUGS AND TOBACCO ATTRACT NEW BUYING -- COCA COLA ENTERPRISES ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- RISING BOND YIELDS MAY BE HURTING PRECIOUS METALS -- MARKET RALLY FADES AS VIX JUMPS TO THREE-MONTH HIGH

OVERSOLD HEALTHCARE SECTOR BOUNCES ... It may be a sign that investors are turning a little more defensive, but some of this week's strongest groups have been in defensive areas like consumer staples and healthcare. Today's market reports show a housing sector that's continuing to...   READ MORE 

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WEAK FINANCIALS PULL MARKET LOWER -- S&P 500 CLOSES BELOW 5O-DAY LINE FOR SECOND DAY -- JUNE LOW MAY BE RETESTED --BONDS BOUNCE ON FLIGHT TO QUALITY BUYING -- RISING VIX NEARS QUARTERLY HIGH

WEAK FINANCIALS PULL MARKET LOWER -- S&P 500 CLOSES BELOW 5O-DAY LINE FOR SECOND DAY -- JUNE LOW MAY BE RETESTED --BONDS BOUNCE ON FLIGHT TO QUALITY BUYING -- RISING VIX NEARS QUARTERLY HIGH

FINANCIALS SPDR FALLS BELOW 200-DAY LINE ... A mid-day market rally fell apart on more mortgage concerns and another sharp drop in financial shares. Chart 1 shows the Financials Select SPDR (XLF) ending the day beneath its 200-day moving average. Downside volume has been especially heavy over the last two trading...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL STOCKS LEAD MARKET DECLINE -- SO DO UTILITIES -- RISING RATES ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM -- S&P 500 CLOSES BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE ON HEAVY VOLUME

FINANCIAL STOCKS LEAD MARKET DECLINE -- SO DO UTILITIES -- RISING RATES ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM -- S&P 500 CLOSES BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE ON HEAVY VOLUME

SUBPRIME CONCERNS HURT BANKS AND BROKERS ... Growing concerns about the fallout in the subprime mortgage market caused heavy selling in banks and brokers today. Today's selling more than wiped out yesterday's rebound in the financial group. Chart 1 shows the Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) undercutting yesterday&...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SHARES RECOVER FROM EARLY SELLOFF WHILE SOX INDEX HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- THOSE TWO FACTORS KEPT S&P 500 OVER ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ SHOWS NEW UPSIDE LEADERSHIP

FINANCIAL SHARES RECOVER FROM EARLY SELLOFF WHILE SOX INDEX HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- THOSE TWO FACTORS KEPT S&P 500 OVER ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- NASDAQ SHOWS NEW UPSIDE LEADERSHIP

FINANCIALS REBOUND ON STRONG VOLUME ... An early selloff in financial stocks today turned into a positive day after all. Chart 1 shows the Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) closing higher. More importantly, volume was unsually heavy. That upside reversal day also kept the XLF above its 200-day moving average. The rebound...   READ MORE 

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SEMICONDUCTOR BUYING MAY BE TIED TO STRONGER ASIA -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR AND TERADYNE ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- SO DOES SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDERS -- THAT'S HELPING PUT NASDAQ IN NEW LEADER...

SEMICONDUCTOR BUYING MAY BE TIED TO STRONGER ASIA -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR AND TERADYNE ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- SO DOES SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDERS -- THAT'S HELPING PUT NASDAQ IN NEW LEADERSHIP ROLE

NEW INTEREST IN CHIPS AND TAIWAN ... My June 14 story on new buying in semiconductors was greeted with some questions and some criticism. One reader suggested that I stop writing about the group because it had disappointed so many times in the past. Another asked how I could be positive...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REVERSE AFTER EARLY GAINS - ENERGY LEADS THE WAY LOWER - AIRLINES BOUNCE ON FALLING OIL PRICES - SOUTHWEST BREAKS MAY HIGH - RISING RATES HURT UTILITIES - NET NEW HIGHS REMAIN POSITIVE

STOCKS REVERSE AFTER EARLY GAINS - ENERGY LEADS THE WAY LOWER - AIRLINES BOUNCE ON FALLING OIL PRICES - SOUTHWEST BREAKS MAY HIGH - RISING RATES HURT UTILITIES - NET NEW HIGHS REMAIN POSITIVE

BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERNS ABOUND... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Stocks opened strong this morning, but selling pressure took over and the major indices finished the day weak. As a result, bearish engulfing patterns or outside reversals formed...   READ MORE 

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MORE ON HOW CURRENCIES IMPACT FOREIGN ETFS -- REITS AND HOMEBUILDING STOCKS SHOW NO SIGN OF BOTTOM -- DOW'S POINT & FIGURE TREND IS STILL UP

MORE ON HOW CURRENCIES IMPACT FOREIGN ETFS -- REITS AND HOMEBUILDING STOCKS SHOW NO SIGN OF BOTTOM -- DOW'S POINT & FIGURE TREND IS STILL UP

MORE ON CURRENCY MOVES ... One of our readers complained that Chart 6 in last Friday's update made no sense. It had to do with why a weaker yen hurt the relative performance of Japan iShares (EWJ). I'll take another shot at it because it can be...   READ MORE 

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FALLING YEN KEEPS CARRY TRADE ALIVE -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR IS RISING WITH CHIP STOCKS AND BOOSTS TAIWAN ETF -- OVERSOLD EURO IS BOUNCING ALONG WITH GOLD -- BOND YIELDS PULL BACK BELOW RES...

FALLING YEN KEEPS CARRY TRADE ALIVE -- TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR IS RISING WITH CHIP STOCKS AND BOOSTS TAIWAN ETF -- OVERSOLD EURO IS BOUNCING ALONG WITH GOLD -- BOND YIELDS PULL BACK BELOW RESISTANCE AND HELP STEADY STOCK MARKET

YEN BREAKS IMPORTANT CHART SUPPORT ... The Japanese yen resumed its long-term downtrend this week by falling to new lows against most major currencies. That includes the U.S. Dollar which is also one of the world's weakest currencies. Chart 1 shows the yen falling below its 2007 low...   READ MORE 

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INTEL LEADS SEMICONDUCTORS HIGHER -- OTHER CHIP LEADERS ALSO INCLUDE KLAC, NSM, AND TXN -- NEW SOX BUYING IS HELPING BOOST NASDAQ -- COMMODITY ETF HITS NEW RECORD

INTEL LEADS SEMICONDUCTORS HIGHER -- OTHER CHIP LEADERS ALSO INCLUDE KLAC, NSM, AND TXN -- NEW SOX BUYING IS HELPING BOOST NASDAQ -- COMMODITY ETF HITS NEW RECORD

SEMICONDUCTORS ON THE REBOUND ... Semiconductors have been a frustrating market group. Every time it looks like the group is ready to join the bull market, it suffers a disappointing setback. A good example of that is seen in Chart 1. During April, the Semiconductor (SOX) Index broke out to a...   READ MORE 

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FALLING RATES BOOST STOCKS -- BONDS FINALLY BOUNCE -- OIL SURGES OFF SUPPORT -- OIL SERVICES REMAIN STRONG -- SLB HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- RSI SIGNALS FOR SPX

FALLING RATES BOOST STOCKS -- BONDS FINALLY BOUNCE -- OIL SURGES OFF SUPPORT -- OIL SERVICES REMAIN STRONG -- SLB HITS 52-WEEK HIGH -- RSI SIGNALS FOR SPX

RISING BONDS GIVE STOCKS A LIFT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The stock market got a triple dose of good news today. First, the Fed released its Beige Book and the report was largely positive. Despite a...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS REACH FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS CRUMBLE -- MARKET INDEXES THREATEN 50-DAY AVERAGES

BOND YIELDS REACH FIVE-YEAR HIGH -- REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS CRUMBLE -- MARKET INDEXES THREATEN 50-DAY AVERAGES

BOND YIELDS BREAKOUT ... The upward climb in bond yields continued again today. Both the 10-year and the 30-Year Treasury yields closed at the highest level in five years. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ending just above the high reached in the middle of last year. The next...   READ MORE 

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MAJOR BULL MARKET IN BONDS MAY BE ENDING -- WHAT THAT MEANS FOR STOCKS -- JAPAN MAY HOLD KEY TO US BOND YIELDS

MAJOR BULL MARKET IN BONDS MAY BE ENDING -- WHAT THAT MEANS FOR STOCKS -- JAPAN MAY HOLD KEY TO US BOND YIELDS

TWENTY-FIVE YEAR BOND BULL MAY BE ENDING... Bill Gross stated last week that he had turned bearish on bond prices for the first time in more than twenty years. Given that he runs the world's biggest bond fund at Pimco, I thought I'd show you why...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ RECOVERS -- SEMIS LEAD RECOVERY -- NSM GAPS HIGHER -- TXN BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT - RUSSELL 2000 BATTLES RESISTANCE BREAKOUT -- EMERGING MARKET LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

NASDAQ RECOVERS -- SEMIS LEAD RECOVERY -- NSM GAPS HIGHER -- TXN BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT - RUSSELL 2000 BATTLES RESISTANCE BREAKOUT -- EMERGING MARKET LEADERS AND LAGGARDS

NASDAQ LEADS REBOUND... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor The Nasdaq held support and led the market higher on Friday. Even though Thursday's decline was quite drastic, the Nasdaq never broke support from its May...   READ MORE 

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RISING RATES RATTLE STOCKS -- 10-YEAR YIELD EXCEEDS 5% - UTILITIES LEAD THE WAY LOWER -- S&P 500 CORRECTION TARGETS -- FINANCE SPDR GETS HIT -- BAC BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- HOMEBUILDER E...

RISING RATES RATTLE STOCKS -- 10-YEAR YIELD EXCEEDS 5% - UTILITIES LEAD THE WAY LOWER -- S&P 500 CORRECTION TARGETS -- FINANCE SPDR GETS HIT -- BAC BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- HOMEBUILDER ETF BREAKS DOWN -- USING ETFS TO MEASURE INFLATION FEARS

RATE FEARS SINK STOCKS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Stocks declined sharply on Thursday as interest rate worries hit home. The 10-year T-Note Yield ($TNX) surged above 5% for the first time since July 2006. All of the major indices were down over...   READ MORE 

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TRANSPORTS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- AIRLINES LAG IN 2007 -- CONTINENTAL TEST KEY SUPPORT -- RATE CONCERNS HIT EUROPE -- SPAIN LAGS IN EUROPE -- RISING RATES FAIL TO SPARK THE DOLLAR

TRANSPORTS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- AIRLINES LAG IN 2007 -- CONTINENTAL TEST KEY SUPPORT -- RATE CONCERNS HIT EUROPE -- SPAIN LAGS IN EUROPE -- RISING RATES FAIL TO SPARK THE DOLLAR

TRANSPORTS TAKEN TO TASK... The Dow Transports led the market lower on Wednesday with weakness in Airlines, Rails and Truckers. This key Dow average broke resistance just last week and came crashing back down over the last three days. The pattern in May looked like a consolidation and the breakout...   READ MORE 

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RISING BOND YIELDS ARE MAKING MARKET NERVOUS -- RETAILERS AND UTILITIES BECOME UNDERPERFORMERS -- BED BATH & BEYOND TUMBLES ON BIG VOLUME -- RISING RATES THREATEN ANY HOUSING RECOVERY

RISING BOND YIELDS ARE MAKING MARKET NERVOUS -- RETAILERS AND UTILITIES BECOME UNDERPERFORMERS -- BED BATH & BEYOND TUMBLES ON BIG VOLUME -- RISING RATES THREATEN ANY HOUSING RECOVERY

BOND YIELDS NEAR 5%... Bond yields reached another nine-month high today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield nearing 5%. I suggested last week that bond yields in excess of that level might make stock investors nervous. One sign that the market is taking notice of rising rates is the...   READ MORE 

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REST OF ASIA SHRUGS OFF CHINESE DROP -- JAPAN HAS BEEN WORLD'S WEAKEST MARKET, BUT MAY START DOING BETTER THAN THE US

REST OF ASIA SHRUGS OFF CHINESE DROP -- JAPAN HAS BEEN WORLD'S WEAKEST MARKET, BUT MAY START DOING BETTER THAN THE US

CHINESE MARKET IS DUE FOR A PULLBACK... The Chinese market lost another 8.2% today. Chart 1 shows the Shanghai Stock Index threatening to break the 50-day average for the first time in nine months. To say that the Chinese market is over-extended is an understatement. Take a look at...   READ MORE 

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PRECIOUS METALS RALLY AS CENTRAL BANKERS STOP SELLING -- COMMODITIES HAVE A STRONG WEEK -- BONDS TUMBLE AS YIELDS REACH NINE-MONTH HIGH -- WAL MART HAS A BIG DAY -- DUPONT ON THE VERGE OF...

PRECIOUS METALS RALLY AS CENTRAL BANKERS STOP SELLING -- COMMODITIES HAVE A STRONG WEEK -- BONDS TUMBLE AS YIELDS REACH NINE-MONTH HIGH -- WAL MART HAS A BIG DAY -- DUPONT ON THE VERGE OF A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH

GOLD AND SILVER JUMP ON GOOD VOLUME ... Apparently, central bankers have been selling some of their bullion reserves over the past few weeks which has put downside pressure on the commodity. News that the European Central Bank announced plans not to sell any more gold before September caused heavy buying...   READ MORE 

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TRANPORTS REACH NEW HIGHS -- SO DO BROKERS -- FINANCIALS STILL STRUGGLE AS BOND YIELDS TEST 2007 HIGH -- BUD TAPS OUT NEW HIGH -- MEADWESTVACO LEADS PAPER STOCKS HIGHER -- USING POINT & FI...

TRANPORTS REACH NEW HIGHS -- SO DO BROKERS -- FINANCIALS STILL STRUGGLE AS BOND YIELDS TEST 2007 HIGH -- BUD TAPS OUT NEW HIGH -- MEADWESTVACO LEADS PAPER STOCKS HIGHER -- USING POINT & FIGURE CHARTS FOR PROTECTION

TRANSPORTS BREAK OUT ... On May 14, I showed three groups that were stalled at their early 2007 highs. One of them was the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. Arthur Hill showed that index hitting a new high yesterday. That resolves the short-term negative divergence between large caps (which had already...   READ MORE 

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DOW REVERSES EARLY LOSSES -- RUSSELL 2000 BREAKS RESISTANCE -- REITS LEAD THE REBOUND -- VORNADO AND SIMON LEAD REITS -- GOLD EDGES LOWER AS THE DOLLAR EDGES HIGHER -- CHINESE STOCKS TAKE...

DOW REVERSES EARLY LOSSES -- RUSSELL 2000 BREAKS RESISTANCE -- REITS LEAD THE REBOUND -- VORNADO AND SIMON LEAD REITS -- GOLD EDGES LOWER AS THE DOLLAR EDGES HIGHER -- CHINESE STOCKS TAKE A HIT -- CHINA ETF CLOSES STRONG

DOW CLOSES ABOVE 13600... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Dow started the day weak, but firmed in the first hour and advanced throughout the day. The key average gained over 100 points and closed above 13600...   READ MORE 

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REVIEW OF 13- AND 34- PERIOD EMAS -- MOVING AVERAGES PROVIDE OBJECTIVITY, SIMPLICITY, AND DISCIPLINE -- SO FAR, NO SELL SIGNALS HAVE BEEN GIVEN

REVIEW OF 13- AND 34- PERIOD EMAS -- MOVING AVERAGES PROVIDE OBJECTIVITY, SIMPLICITY, AND DISCIPLINE -- SO FAR, NO SELL SIGNALS HAVE BEEN GIVEN

REVISITING 13 AND 34 PERIOD EMAS ... I've written several past articles about a moving average system that has a remarkable track record. It's a combination of 13 and 34 period exponential moving averages. I use the word "period" because that EMA combination works in...   READ MORE 

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RISING RATES CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN UTILITIES AND DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS -- CHINA AND EMERGING MARKETS STUMBLE -- S&P 500 SUFFERS SHORT-TERM DETERIORATION NEAR ITS 2000 HIGH

RISING RATES CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN UTILITIES AND DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS -- CHINA AND EMERGING MARKETS STUMBLE -- S&P 500 SUFFERS SHORT-TERM DETERIORATION NEAR ITS 2000 HIGH

RATE-SENSTIVE UTILITIES SELL OFF ... It's no coincidence that the recent jump in bond yields is causing profit-taking in utilities. That's because utilities are often considered to be the stock market equivalent of bonds. In other words, utilities do better when bond yields are falling, and get...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS MAKE AFTERNOON RETREAT -- CANDLESTICK PREFERENCES - SPY TURNS INDECISIVE -- INTEREST RATES CONTINUE HIGHER -- REITS MOVING OPPOSITE OF RATES AGAIN -- FINANCE SECTOR REMAINS A LAGGAR...

STOCKS MAKE AFTERNOON RETREAT -- CANDLESTICK PREFERENCES - SPY TURNS INDECISIVE -- INTEREST RATES CONTINUE HIGHER -- REITS MOVING OPPOSITE OF RATES AGAIN -- FINANCE SECTOR REMAINS A LAGGARD -- CHINA ETF HITS RESISTANCE

STOCKS GIVE UP EARLY GAINS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Stocks were higher throughout the day, but gave up their gains in the late afternoon and closed mixed. Stocks swooned after reports hit the wires that Greenspan...   READ MORE 

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JAPANESE YEN FALLS ON WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS -- THAT'S HURTING JAPAN ISHARES -- SO IS FALLING GOLD PRICES -- THE FALLING YEN, HOWEVER, KEEPS CARRY TRADE GOING -- BOND YIELDS ARE STARTING TO RI...

JAPANESE YEN FALLS ON WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS -- THAT'S HURTING JAPAN ISHARES -- SO IS FALLING GOLD PRICES -- THE FALLING YEN, HOWEVER, KEEPS CARRY TRADE GOING -- BOND YIELDS ARE STARTING TO RISE BUT REMAIN IN LONG-TERM DOWNTREND

JAPANESE YEN NEARS TEST OF OLD LOWS ... I wrote yesterday about weakness in foreign currencies pressuring gold. I focused on the Euro. However, the Japanese yen is falling much harder than the others. That has a lot of ripple effects -- some good, some bad. One is that it helps...   READ MORE 

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PULLBACK IN EURO FROM OLD PEAK CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN GOLD -- GOLD IS ALSO BEING HURT BY LACK OF LEADERSHIP FROM GOLD SHARES WHICH ARE STALLED AT LONG-TERM RESISTANCE

PULLBACK IN EURO FROM OLD PEAK CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN GOLD -- GOLD IS ALSO BEING HURT BY LACK OF LEADERSHIP FROM GOLD SHARES WHICH ARE STALLED AT LONG-TERM RESISTANCE

EURO STALLS AT OLD HIGH ... Gold usually trends in the opposite direction of the U.S. Dollar. So does the Euro. That means that the Euro and gold trend in the same direction. Up until recently, both markets had been rising together. Both are now on the defensive. Part of...   READ MORE 

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EARLY MARKET BOUNCE FADES ON HIGHER VOLUME -- HOME DEPOT LEADS RETAIL GROUP LOWER -- REITS THREATEN 200-DAY AVERAGE -- AMGEN LEADS NASDAQ LOWER -- TELECOM CONTINUES TO GAIN GROUND -- SARA...

EARLY MARKET BOUNCE FADES ON HIGHER VOLUME -- HOME DEPOT LEADS RETAIL GROUP LOWER -- REITS THREATEN 200-DAY AVERAGE -- AMGEN LEADS NASDAQ LOWER -- TELECOM CONTINUES TO GAIN GROUND -- SARA LEE TOUCHES 52-WEEK HIGH

HOME DEPOT WEIGHS ON RETAILERS ... The retail group continues to weaken and is starting to weigh on the rest of the market. Chart 1 shows the Retail Holders (RTH) closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time in a month. Notice the heavy downside volume bars over the...   READ MORE 

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SEVERAL GROUPS ARE STALLED NEAR FEBRUARY HIGHS INCLUDING RUSSELL 2000, BROKERS, AND TRANSPORTS -- NASDAQ RELATIVE STRENGTH RATIO FALLS TO NEW 2007 LOW -- AON REPRESENTS ANOTHER INSURANCE B...

SEVERAL GROUPS ARE STALLED NEAR FEBRUARY HIGHS INCLUDING RUSSELL 2000, BROKERS, AND TRANSPORTS -- NASDAQ RELATIVE STRENGTH RATIO FALLS TO NEW 2007 LOW -- AON REPRESENTS ANOTHER INSURANCE BREAKOUT

RUSSELL 2000 IS STALLED AT FEBRUARY HIGH ... In trying to decide if the market is on the verge of a pullback, one of the clues we look for is whether or not some of the weaker market groups are able to move above their February highs. If they can, the...   READ MORE 

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FLAT CORE PPI HELPS MARKET RECOVER MOST OF THURSDAY'S LOSSES -- BUT RETAILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- INSURANCE GROUP IS STARTING TO SHOW NEW UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- AMERICAN IN...

FLAT CORE PPI HELPS MARKET RECOVER MOST OF THURSDAY'S LOSSES -- BUT RETAILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- INSURANCE GROUP IS STARTING TO SHOW NEW UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP ON VERGE OF MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT

RETAILERS LAG MARKET ... On Saturday April 14, I ended a weekly wrapup with advice to "follow the leaders". The leaders at that time were materials, energy, utilities, telecom, healthcare, and consumer staples. One group not on that list was retailers. The next two charts show why. In a...   READ MORE 

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OVERBOUGHT MARKET FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO SERIOUS SELLING -- SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNALS KICK IN

OVERBOUGHT MARKET FINALLY SUCCUMBS TO SERIOUS SELLING -- SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNALS KICK IN

OVERDUE PULLBACK STARTS ... It took a number of negative reports to finally cause some stock selling. Today's combination included bad retail sales figures, higher import prices, and a wider than expected trade deficit. It shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise however. On Tuesday...   READ MORE 

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FED STANDS PAT -- RATES JUMP AND BONDS SLIP -- DOW REMAINS OVERBOUGHT -- SEMIS CONTINUE TO LEAD TECH -- INTEL RECORDS 52-WEEK HIGH -- TEXAS INSTRUMENTS BREAKS RESISTANCE -- MAXIM COULD BE...

FED STANDS PAT -- RATES JUMP AND BONDS SLIP -- DOW REMAINS OVERBOUGHT -- SEMIS CONTINUE TO LEAD TECH -- INTEL RECORDS 52-WEEK HIGH -- TEXAS INSTRUMENTS BREAKS RESISTANCE -- MAXIM COULD BE NEXT -- COAL STOCKS SHINE TOO

NO SURPRISES AT THE FED ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Fed gave the markets what they expected and left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25%. The Fed statement was also pretty much the same...   READ MORE 

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THE NUMBER OF NYSE NEW HIGHS ISN'T EXPANDING WITH PRICE HIGHS -- BOLLINGER BANDS ALSO SHOW THE MARKET DANGEROUSLY STRETCHED TO THE UPSIDE -- DESPITE OVERBOUGHT READINGS, NO SELL SIGNALS HA...

THE NUMBER OF NYSE NEW HIGHS ISN'T EXPANDING WITH PRICE HIGHS -- BOLLINGER BANDS ALSO SHOW THE MARKET DANGEROUSLY STRETCHED TO THE UPSIDE -- DESPITE OVERBOUGHT READINGS, NO SELL SIGNALS HAVE BEEN GIVEN

NEW HIGHS ARE SHRINKING ... Virtually every short-term indicator that we have show the market to be in an overbought condition. Some are starting to show short-term divergences. One example of the latter is the NYSE New Highs-New Lows Index ($NYHL). That's the red line line in Chart 1....   READ MORE 

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ALCOA ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT AFTER TAKEOVER OFFER -- TRAVELERS LEADS STRONG INSURANCE GROUP -- AIG AND CHUBB ARE ALSO RISING

ALCOA ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT AFTER TAKEOVER OFFER -- TRAVELERS LEADS STRONG INSURANCE GROUP -- AIG AND CHUBB ARE ALSO RISING

ALCOA REACHES FIVE-YEAR HIGH ... Alcoa's takeover offer of Alcan Aluminum pushed both stocks sharply higher. Alcan surged 32% to a record high. Alcoa jumped more than 7% and was the market's star performer. The monthly bars in Chart 1 show Alcoa breaking through its early 2004...   READ MORE 

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WEAK JOB REPORT WEAKENS DOLLAR AND BOOSTS BONDS AND GOLD -- XAU INDEX IS STALLED BELOW RECORD HIGH AND MAY BE HOLDING GOLD BACK -- FALLING DOLLAR MAY HELP EXPLAIN RECENT ROTATION INTO LARG...

WEAK JOB REPORT WEAKENS DOLLAR AND BOOSTS BONDS AND GOLD -- XAU INDEX IS STALLED BELOW RECORD HIGH AND MAY BE HOLDING GOLD BACK -- FALLING DOLLAR MAY HELP EXPLAIN RECENT ROTATION INTO LARGE CAP STOCKS

SLOW JOB GROWTH BOOSTS BOND MARKET... Unemployment ticked higher during April and job growth was the slowest in two years. That hint at economic weakness pushed bond yields lower and bond prices higher (bond prices and yields always move in opposite directions). Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield (TNX)...   READ MORE