HEALTHCARE WAS WEAKEST SECTOR IN 2006 ... Healthcare was the stock market's weakest sector during 2006. The Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV) gained 5.4% for the entire year which put it -6.2% behind the S&P 500 which rose 11.6%. Possibly for that reason, a number... READ MORE
BRIC ETF LEADS FOURTH QUARTER GAINS... Global markets continued to lead the U.S. market higher through the end of 2006 (and the first couple of days of the new year). Every region in the world did better than the U.S. during the fourth quarter. That includes (in order... READ MORE
NYSE TAKES TOP HONORS...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. The NYSE Composite gained over 15% in 2006 and was the best performing index for the year. That's a pretty good feat for such a broad index. This feat is even... READ MORE
DOW MAKES IT SIX STRAIGHT...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. Barring a 280 point decline on Friday, the Dow is set to close higher in December and finish the year with a bang. The Dow is now up 6 consecutive months and... READ MORE
STOCKS FIRM ON HOLIDAY VOLUME...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. After a three day fall leading up to Christmas, stocks firmed in thin trading on Tuesday. The NYSE Composite ended the day with modest gains and NYSE volume was less than half... READ MORE
THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ... One of the more notable patches of weakness over the last week was the transportation stocks. On the week, the Dow Transports fell more than 4% and were by far the market's weakest group. At the same time, the Dow Industrials... READ MORE
FALLING COPPER HINTS AT ECONOMIC WEAKNESS... Copper prices are usually viewed as a measure of economic strength. That's because it's used in things like autos and housing. It may not be a coincidence then to read that copper prices have fallen to the lowest level in... READ MORE
USE THE SAME INDICATORS ... One of readers asked how to determine sell signals for stocks and stock groups. The answer is to use the same chart criteria for selling that are used for buying. Take moving averages for example. A stock in a long-term uptrend gives a buy signal when... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKET SELLOFF HAS STABILIZED... Thailand's earlier decision to put controls on foreign money invested in its stock market caused an initial plunge in that country's stock market, and nervous selling across other emerging markets. The central bank quickly excluded stock investments from their currency controls... READ MORE
SMALLER STOCKS STILL HAVEN'T BROKEN OUT ... A lot has been said and written about the fact that the current market rally has been driven mainly by large cap stocks. So today's story isn't exactly new. It does, however, appear to support the idea that... READ MORE
RETAILERS LEAD RALLY ... Good news from Costco following on the heels of yesterday's strong retail report has ignited the retail sector which is leading the rest of the market higher today. On a percentage basis, the day's strongest ETF is the Retail Holders (RTH) shown in... READ MORE
ANOTHER WAY TO SCREEN MARKET GROUPS ... I'm a big believer in being in the strongest parts of the market -- and avoiding the weakest. There are lots of ways to do that. The Stockchart Performance Charts, for example, rank the various market sectors and industry groups over any... READ MORE
VIX STILL HASN'T GIVEN A TRADING SIGNAL ... At the start of November, I wrote about the potential threat to the market of an upturn in the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index. At the time, I explained that the VIX had to break through some overhead resistance levels to cause... READ MORE
% NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGES ... I've received requests to look at some long-term market sentiment indicators. I've chosen a couple that you can plot by yourself on Stockcharts. One of those is the % of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average ($NYA200R). That's the... READ MORE
LONG-TERM DOLLAR TREND IS DOWN... One of our readers asked to see a long-term chart of the US Dollar Index. Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index from 1984 to the present. The USD lost half of its value from 1985 to 1990 (falling from 160 to 80). It bounced off... READ MORE
NBR INTERVIEW TONIGHT ... I'm scheduled to be the Friday night Market Monitor guest on the Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas this evening. The TV show airs on Channel 13 (PBS) and runs from 6:30 to 7:00 pm NYT. The guest usually appears midway through the... READ MORE
DOLLAR PLUNGE BOOSTS COMMODITY ASSETS ... As you well know by now, a falling dollar boosts commodity prices and precious metals in particular. The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen to another 20-month low today (the British Pound is trading at the highest level in 14 years). And, not surprisingly, commodity... READ MORE
TWO DIFFERENT LOOKS AT COMMODITY TREND... When we talk about the trend of commodities in general, it's important to know which trend we're looking at. The next two charts show two versions of the commodity price trend. Chart 1 shows the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index having... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO SPRING LOW... Last Wednesday I wrote about the likelihood of the U.S. Dollar Index heading for a test of its spring low. [I also wrote about the long-term negative implications for the dollar if it were to break that low]. The daily bars in Chart... READ MORE
FOREIGN CURRENCIES SURGE AGAINST WEAK DOLLAR ... A government report predicting a slower American economy in the first half of next year is having a bearish impact on the U.S. Dollar and a bullish impact on foreign currencies. Chart 1 shows the Euro moving up to challenge its 2006 highs.... READ MORE
EARLIER PRECIOUS METAL BUY SIGNALS ARE STILL INTACT ... Given my somewhat cautious comments on precious metals last week, one of our readers asked if recent point & figure buy signals that I pointed out are still intact. The answer is "yes". Last week I pointed out that gold... READ MORE
PACIFIC EX-JAPAN ETF HITS NEW HIGH ... I wrote recently about strong uptrends in China and Hong Kong. I was asked by one reader why I hadn't included Japan. The reason is because Japan isn't doing nearly as well as the rest of Asia and the Pacific... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS NEAR MAY HIGH ... One of our readers asked about the lack of upside confirmation by the Dow Transports. According to Dow Theory, a bull market rally should be confirmed by new highs in both the transports and the industrials. Those concerns are being reduced by this week's... READ MORE
BIG DROP IN PPI HELDS BONDS AND BUILDERS... The biggest drop in core wholesale inflation in thirteen years had a beneficial effect on bonds and stocks today. [The only group that lost ground was basic materials which are tied to commodity prices like copper which have been falling]. The huge... READ MORE
LAM RESEARCH AND NVIDIA NEAR RECORD HIGHS ... On Friday, I listed a number of large technology stocks that were leading the Nasdaq market higher. With the Nasdaq market finally exceeding its spring highs (and leading the rest of the market higher today), I thought I'd look at some... READ MORE
A VISUAL COMPARISON WITH THE NYSE ... On Wednesday, I wrote that the Nasdaq market could start doing better than the broader market. The main reason simply has to do with the fact that the Nasdaq is cheap relative to NYSE issues. Chart 1 is a simple visual comparison of the... READ MORE
PRICE OF DEMOCRATIC VICTORY... Yesterday I showed drug stocks selling off on heavy volume. That continued again today and spread to the entire healthcare sector which was the day's weakest group. Chart 1 shows the Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) not only breaking its 50-day moving average (for... READ MORE
THE CHINESE MAY DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR ... I've been writing recently about new signs of weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Two side-effects of a weaker dollar are stronger foreign stock markets (especially foreign ETFs) and stronger commodity markets, especially precious metals. Reuters reported today that China... READ MORE
PHARM HOLDERS SELL OFF ON VOLUME ... The Democratic victory in yesterday's midterm election caused some selling in the healthcare sector today and drug stocks in particular. As a result, the day's weakest stock ETF was the Pharm Holders. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the... READ MORE
FOREIGN ETFS CONFIRM US BREAKOUT ... One of the recent concerns among market analysts was the lack of upside confirmation by foreign markets. Although most of the U.S. stock indexes have cleared their spring highs, foreign markets had been lagging behind. That's no longer the case. Chart 1... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP SHARPLY ... Unexpectedly strong job figures caught the bond market by surprise today and pushed bond yields sharply higher. The latest unemployment number fell to a five year low and payroll numbers for August and September were revised sharply higher. In addition, wages rose more than expected. Rising... READ MORE
INDIA HAS BEEN A WORLD LEADER ... I've received requests to look at some of the world's leading foreign markets. I thought I'd take the opportunity to look at some the big Asian leaders that I haven't written about before. This is also... READ MORE
PREVIOUS CYCLE BOTTOMS SAW A HIGHER VIX ... There was a lot of discussion about the four-year cycle at the conference of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) in Switzerland. Most of the discussion centered around the unusual nature of this year's rally. In most instances, the market... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS FALL SHARPLY ... An unexpected drop in September consumer confidence and a drop in manufacturing activity have raised fears of an economic slowdown. That's pushing bond prices higher and bond yields lower. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield falling to the lowest level in a month... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX FAILS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EURO CLEARS 50-DAY LINE ... The last time I showed the U.S. Dollar Index, it was testing its July high and its 200-day moving. Since then it has weakened noticeably. Chart 1 (plotted through Friday) shows the USD falling below its 50-day... READ MORE
A BIG WEEK FOR STOCKS... EDITOR'S NOTE: John is travelling this week. Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. John will be back next week. The bulls were out in force this week. The Dow and NYSE Composite reached all time highs,... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 AND NASDAQ LEAD BROAD ADVANCE ... Editor's Note: John Murphy is travelling this week and will return on Monday. The follow article was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. Stocks were broadly higher on Thursday with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the way. Large-caps from... READ MORE
THE FED DOES AS EXPECTED... Editor's Note: John is travelling this week and will be back next Monday. Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. For the third straight time, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds target unchanged at 5.25%... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE HOLDRS BREAKS RESISTANCE... NOTE: John is travelling this week and will be back next Monday. Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. The Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) led a rebound in the Energy sector on Tuesday with a surge above 134. This move... READ MORE
BIG BLUE HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH ... Two of the stocks that are leading the Dow to new highs are IBM and Walmart. That's interesting because both blue chips have been market laggards for a long time. Not anymore. Chart 1 shows IBM breaking through the highs of late... READ MORE