SO FAR SO GOOD... Global stock markets survived an important test this week. Almost everywhere we look in the world, we see major stock markets staying above or bouncing off their 200-day moving averages. The first three charts show some of the foreign markets doing the latter. Emerging markets in... READ MORE
CRB GIVES UP ALL OF YESTERDAY'S GAINS ... Yesterday's sharp jump in commodity prices didn't last for long. The CRB Index fell more than nine points today to give up all of yesterday's gains and more. Three of the biggest percentage losers were... READ MORE
COMMODITIES BACK OVER 50-DAY LINES ... Commodity markets are staging a comeback attempt today and the rally is pretty broad based. Fourteen of the nineteen commodity markets are in the black today. The biggest gainers are copper (+11%), silver (+5%), gasoline (2%) and gold (+2%). Chart 1 shows the Reuters/Jefferies... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKETS FALL WITH OTHER FORMER LEADERS... Last Monday I wrote about a number of sell signals that were being given in the market and in commodity-related stocks in particular. I wrote a paragraph entitled "Growing Aversion to Risk" in which I explained that former market leaders were... READ MORE
VIX HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH ... The market has something else to worry about. The CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index jumped to the highest level in a year. In so doing, it exceeded the previous peak hit in January and, at one point today, the peak hit last October. That's a... READ MORE
CORE CPI TOPS FORECASTS ... While the CPI numbers creep higher month after month, economists keep telling us there's really no inflation. It's all energy. There's no inflation anywhere else and not much threat of it picking up. Those of us who look ahead, however,... READ MORE
WITH MARIA ... I'm scheduled to be interviewed at approximately 4:05 pm (Eastern time) this afternoon by Maria Bartiromo on CNBC. If you tune in, you won't hear anything that you haven't already read on this site. Given the events of the past week,... READ MORE
CRB LOSES MORE THAN 2% ... It was just a matter of time until commodities entered a much-needed correction. And today is the day. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell over 8 points (-2.3%) as 16 of the 19 commodities experienced selloffs. Most of the biggest losers are in the... READ MORE
THIS IS LOGICAL SPOT FOR THE MARKET TO PEAK ... I've been writing a lot lately about the inflationary implications of the falling dollar, rising commodity prices, and rising interest rates. I've also been showing a number of negative divergences in market breadth indicators. It looks like... READ MORE
TOO MUCH FOCUS ON THE FED ... It seems to me there's way too much focus on what the Fed does or what it intends to do. Yesterday's Fed statement hinted at another rate hike in the offing. I suspect there will be several more after that.... READ MORE
GLOBAL FORCES MAY BE TAKING OVER ... Everyone's attention will be on what the Fed does tomorrow and what it says while it's doing it. The consensus view (encouraged by the new Fed chairman) seems to be for another quarter point rate hike to 5% after which... READ MORE
GOLD IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES ... One of our readers asked if the falling dollar is the only reason that gold is rising. The answer to that is most certainly no. Since gold is quoted in U.S. dollars, a falling dollar produces higher gold prices. That means that gold rises in... READ MORE
CRUDE FORMS SHORT-TERM TOP ... Crude oil prices fell sharply for the second day in a row. More importantly, today's drop of $2.68 puts it back below $70 for the first time in three weeks. That breaks the intra-day low hit last week and has left behind a... READ MORE
A HISTORICAL LOOK AT THE BPI... One of the themes that I keep coming back to is that the 2006 bull market advance into new multi-year highs isn't being confirmed by a lot of technical indicators that measure market breadth. I've written articles showing negative divergence... READ MORE
USING SAR IN FAST RISING MARKET ... Different market conditions require different indicators. Fortunately, Stockcharts offers a wide variety. What works in a trading range market doesn't work as well in a trending market. What works in a market that's trending gradually higher might not be suitable... READ MORE
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY?...NOT... He just couldn't leave well enough alone; there was the Dow Jones, enjoying a rally in today's session and then, Chairman Bernanke's comments were aired, minimizing the rally in gold, crude oil and a rise in interest... READ MORE
DIRECTIONAL SIGNALS ON MONTHLY CHART ... I'm going to devote this article to a demonstration of the usefulness of Bollinger Bands. But first an explanation of what they are. Developed by John Bollinger, the two bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a middle line which is... READ MORE
CHINESE RATE HIKE WEAKENS COMMODITY MARKETS ... The Chinese central bank raised interest rates for the first time since October 2004. They did that to prevent the Chinese economy from overheating. One of the immediate reactions was a selloff in most commodity markets. It's no secret that China has... READ MORE
McCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX ... Yesterday I showed some negative divergence starting to appear between the NYSE Advance-Decline line and the S&P 500. In response to another reader question, today I'm showing another measure of market breadth that's showing a more serious negative divergence. The indicator... READ MORE
FALLING GASOLINE PULLS XLE LOWER ... Earlier today I showed gasoline futures pulling back from overhead resistance at their summer highs. That caused profit-taking in energy shares. I also showed Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips pulling back from their September highs. Chart 1 shows the selling in the Energy SPDR (XLE). Although... READ MORE
THIS IS NORMAL SPOT TO EXPECT A PULLBACK ... Everyone is looking at the chart of crude oil. They should also be watching gasoline. That's because gasoline futures have reached their next upside target and are starting to pullback from the most overbought reading since last summer. That'... READ MORE
YEN SURGES ON CALL FOR HIGHER ASIAN CURRENCIES ... Last week we saw the Euro hit a new 2006 high. Today it's the yen that's jumping. Over the weekend, the Group of Seven called for Asian countries to let their currencies rise to their true market values.... READ MORE
CRB INDEX STAYS ABOVE BREAKOUT POINT ... Yesterday's bout of commodity profit-taking (which was concentrated in metals markets) may have been a one-day affair. At least that's what today's strong bounce back suggested. The CRB Index regained 4.65 points today to close at a... READ MORE
EURO SETTING NEW HIGHS FOR THE YEAR... As indicated in Chart 1, after the strong rally seen on April 05, 2006, the Euro retreated, never breaking the uptrend line. All this backing and filling gave the Euro enough energy to leap forward, gapping higher and printing a new high for... READ MORE
USING PROFUNDS TO TRADE THE DOLLAR ... With the U.S. Dollar continuing to drop toward its low for the year -- and the Euro hitting a new 2006 high today -- it's time to revisit two mutual funds that allow investors to trade the U.S. Dollar. As... READ MORE
MAJOR INDEXES HAVE IMPRESSIVE DAY ... I'm not sure exactly what caused today's impressive stock market rally. It might have been a relatively low core inflation figure. Or it may have been comments from a Fed official hinting that the Fed was concerned about raising rates too... READ MORE
FOREIGN CURRENCIES JUMP AGAINST DOLLAR... The U.S. dollar fell sharply today against all of its major trading partners. Once again, the main impetus came from another Chinese voice calling for a reduction in that country's holdings of U.S. assets. Chart 1 shows today's explosive... READ MORE
PROFUNDS RISING OPPORTUNITY 10 FUND ... I wrote an article yesterday (Thursday) about rising long-term interest rates and why that was bearish for bond funds. That's because traditional bond funds (which are based on the price of bonds) fall when bond yields are rising. The 10-year T-Note yield (TNX)... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR YIELDS EXCEEDS 5% ... Last week the yield on the 10-Year T-note broke through its 2004 peak at 4.90% to reach the highest level in four years. Today the TNX has moved through the psychological level of 5%. That doesn't come as much of a surprise considering... READ MORE
S&P 500 AND DOW BREAK SUPPORT LINES ... Although the S&P 500 closed slightly below its 50-day average, it was the only one of the major stock indexes to do so. That, however, isn't my main concern with today's action. My main concern... READ MORE
GASOLINE CONTINUES TO CLIMB ... It's no secret that energy prices are climbing again. And that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who watches price charts. Back on March 29, for example, I showed the futures price of gasoline breaking through its January high at 1.89... READ MORE
30-YEAR T-BOND YIELD EXCEEDS 5% ... A strong employment report today finally pushed long-term rates above key chart and psychological barriers. That's having a ripple effect through all of the financial markets. It's giving a boost to the dollar which may be contributing to profit-taking in gold... READ MORE
WE DON'T GET ANY RESPECT ... Modified to correct the language, that familiar refrain was until recently the mantra of the Euro. The beleaguered currency, however, has perked up and begun to rally. We noted in a previous article at the start of March (March 01, 2006) the change... READ MORE
INCLUDES A LOT OF TRANSPORTS ... I recently wrote about the strong action in the Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI) (March 15, 2006). The headline in that piece was "Rails Lead Industrials SPDR to Record Highs". That's still the case. The purpose of that article was twofold. One... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX MAY BE BOTTOMING ... Last week I wrote about how the Semiconductor (SOX) Index was in an area of chart support and starting to show early signs of turning back up again. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the SOX finding new support just above its 200-day moving... READ MORE
GERMANY LEADS STRONG EUROPEAN GAINS ... A lot of today's intermarket moves can be traced to new signs of strength in Europe. Today, for example, three of Europe's markets -- France, Germany, and Italy -- showed gains of more than 1% to lead global markets higher. The... READ MORE
CRB INDEX MOVES OVER 50-DAY LINE... Last Friday I showed the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index rebounding off its 200-day moving average and suggested that the commodity correction appeared over. In today's trading, the CRB is climbing above its 50-day moving average and appears to be starting a new... READ MORE
HECLA MINING RALLIES WITH SILVER... Over the last month I've shown two silver stocks that are benefiting from silver's move to a new twenty-two year high. The two stocks are Coeur D Alene Mines (CDE) and Pan American Silver (PAAS). Hecla Mining (HL) is another one.... READ MORE
LOWER RATES WEAKEN ... Just a day after a report showing a big jump in sales of previously owned homes during February, we read today that new home sales tumbled 10%, which is the biggest drop in nine years. Personally, I think the latter number makes a lot more sense in... READ MORE
KBH LEADS HOMEBUILDING GROUP HIGHER... Sales of existing homes rose strongly during February which is giving a much-needed boost to homebuilders. Three of the five top percentage gainers in the S&P 500 are homebuilding stocks. The biggest percentage gainer is KBH which is gaining 5%. [KBH also reported... READ MORE